Autumn 2015

[Stanley]

November has been a very mild month overall Moh and the record for the hottest November day was broken as well. It makes the winter shorter!
Mist coming in at 21:00 last night. Light mist this morning but a clear sky. I was thinking yesterday as the sun tried to break through in the morning that Wendy's horses would be OK outside, I'll bet she had a great scene of mist in the valleys! The glass is falling again this morning, heading south towards 29.3". The forecast is for a misty overcast day with less sun than yesterday. The very light wind is steady from the east and overall the day will be cooler at around 8C all day. Chance of light rain tonight as it gets dark.
06:10. Back home after an early walk on a misty, colder morning. I suspect the bank of mist is deeper than yesterday because even though the sky beyond it will be clear, you can hardly see the quarter moon. Only thing that grabbed me is that I don't know who is responsible for the Town Square and bus shelter clocks but they should get their act together. Neither of them telling the truth!

[Wendyf]

Glorious day here yesterday until early afternoon when the mist came in, and you are right Stanley there have been some wonderful misty views! Sometimes a "sausage" of mist creeps over Sandbeds from the Lothersdale side and drifts down past us into the clough. We are in thick mist this morning with a noticeable easterly breeze making it feel chilly...under 3C on the outdoor thermometer reading.
I start bringing the ponies in at night at the end of October, mainly because of the threat of fireworks, but also because I move them onto a fresh patch of long grass about now and if they were eating for 24 hours solid they might explode. It's always surprises me how quickly my field gets waterlogged at this time of year, even though we haven't had much rain yet.

[Cathy]

Adelaide is enjoying a Spring Thunderstorm tonight and tomorrow

[Stanley]

I like to think about Dennis and Sparky grazing with the sun on their backs....
The evening rain came in yesterday dead on time. Still wet out there this morning but no rain actually falling at the moment. Dead calm and it feels slightly warmer, no mist at present. The glass is down again to 29.2", looks as though a slow change is coming. One clue may be that it is windy in the North of Scotland. The forecast is for the mist to come in again and persist through most of the morning. Outside chance of a light shower but otherwise overcast and dull with a very light breeze mainly from the east all day. Theoretical high is slightly warmer at 12C and will feel like 11C.
Remember the Daily Mail predicting the coldest winter for fifty years? Not much sign of it yet!
06:10. Back after a calm, dry and mist free walk. The sky is overcast but ground visibility is good so far. Barbara is at work at Barlick Bites. The papers are being delivered and my Polish Mates have picked up their lift to work in the Pioneer Car Park. All would seem to be well with the world!

[Stanley]

Overcast, cam and mild at 21:00 last night. Sky was clear as a bell early this morning but I've just popped my head out and a light overcast has developed. The quarter moon is visible with a halo but the stars are obscured. The glass is steady on 29.2". The forecast is for it to be overcast but dry until about 09:00 and from then on we shall have rain, persistent at times. The light east wind will swing into the south as the rain starts and stay there all day. The theoretical high is 13C but will never feel warmer than 11C. The outlook for the rest of the week is rainy and perhaps more wind.
06:10. Back in the hutch after a pleasant walk on a mild, overcast but almost calm morning. This and better will do! (Where did that 'worst winter in fifty years' originate? In case anyone hasn't noticed we are getting well into November with no sign of a frost even. The outlook for the next four days is basically the same but with more rain.)

[Wendyf]

"Where did that 'worst winter in fifty years' originate? In case anyone hasn't noticed we are getting well into November with no sign of a frost even."

Steady on Stanley, we have only had 4 days of November so far....I'm enjoying Autumn for at least another 3 weeks!

[Tripps]

A quick google reveals as I suspected that the culprit is the Daily Express, not the Mail.
Sounds really grim, and me a veteran of the 1947 and 1963 winters. Daily Express message of doom

If you have the time - here's something to interest you perhaps. Climate change

Definitely food for thought. Note it features Piers Corbyn (Jeremy's brother - the clever one)
I'm naturally sceptical about nearly everything, and there's plenty to be sceptical about - especially in this field. This week I have seen newspaper headlines which separately, said that the Antarctic ice is both recovering, ie increasing, and it is still melting,which will cause rises in sea level.

[Pluggy]

"

Steady on Stanley, we have only had 4 days of November so far....I'm enjoying Autumn for at least another 3 weeks!

This is OGFB, we're barely out of summer. Winter is but a distant spot on the horizon....

[PanBiker]

Aye, the season watcher is taking note. Have you seen the latest BBC weather initiative, Weather Watchers which is basically a back to basics look out of the window and tell us what's happening where you are job. A reporting website to log your observations reports and pictures, anyone can join in, the more the merrier.

BBC Weather Watchers

[Stanley]

David, thanks for that link to the Daily Express article.... Like you I can remember 1947 and 1962..... A classic example of taking worst case and making predictions based on that to sell papers. All right, it might snow this winter... so what? For years I have been pointing out that we are on the same latitude as Labrador and it's only an accident of nature that we have a maritime temperate climate. We've seen some funny weather patterns already based on variations in the jet stream and I don't doubt that there is a possibility of a severe winter. If there is it will put additional stress on power generation and the general economy and that is likely to be the biggest 'danger'. That's why I have taken sensible precautions and I'd recommend others to do the same.
Despite the DE forecast of heavy snow this month we are still enjoying an unusually mild back end. It was dry at 21:00 last night and overcast with very little wind. Same first thing this morning and now. The glass is steady at just below 29.2". The forecast is for a generally overcast day, good chance of a heavy shower around 08:00 and more rain later in the morning but reasonably dry thereafter. The light south wind will strengthen during the day and gradually swing into the west. The theoretical high is 14C but the wind chill will pull that back to 12C. Outlook for the next four days is similar. Noticeable in the shipping forecast that it is much windier in the far north.
Back from the butcher's at 06:30 after a pleasant walk on a calm dry morning, very mild. It's almost 07:30 now and it's noticeable that the wind has got up just as promised and some ragged nasty looking clouds are coming in from the SW. The forecast of a heavy shower shortly could be spot on. How do they know these things?

[Tripps]

I remember a study done at (I think) Nottingham University when they compared the actual weather forecast, with the assumption that tomorrow's weather would be the same as today's.

I recall that the difference was statistically insignificant.

[Stanley]

Mild, calm and dry outside at the moment. Glass is tending to rise and is just over 29.2". Forecast is for rain to come in at 07:00 and persist all day. The wind swings about all over the place but settles down eventually into a moderate westerly. Slightly cooler than yesterday, the theoretical high of 12C will be moderated by the wind and feel like 10C. Still acceptable weather for the time of year....
06:40. Back in the hutch after a wet walk, the rain came in an hour earlier than forecast and is moderate and persistent, driven by the gradually rising wind when you are out in it. Jack is a little hero in the rain, totally ignores it and he has had a good rub down so he is a happy bunny. If you can keep out of this, do so, it's cold nasty stuff!

[Stanley]

Calm and dry at the moment. Glass is up almost on 29.5". Forecast is a re-run of yesterday, persistent rain after 08:00 for most of the day and a strong S wind settling down in the west later. Theoretical high is 14C but will be chilled to 10C by the wind. Better get out there for a walk I think!
06:25. Back in the hutch. Clear calm and dry out there but cooler than I expected. Lots of water flowing over the dam in Butts, testifying to the amount of rain we had yesterday.

[Moh]

Storm Abigail is due to hit the North & West tonight with winds of up to 70mph - that will shift the leaves!

[Stanley]

You can feel it here this morning Moh. Very clear sky but a blustery wind. Glass is steady on 29.2". Forecast is for a slightly cooler day with a strong SW wind gusting to about 50mph all day. Rain will come in at around 06:00 and persist all day. Good case for an earlier walk than usual while it's dry!
Later at 04:40. That's right, I was ready for a walk and decided to get it done while it's dry. The wind is strengthening, not up to speed yet but the leaves are coming down as Moh predicted. The stars have vanished as cloud comes in from the SW. When I got back, ash and trash out, coal brought in and the door shut on it. A smart move I reckon, we shan't be out there until 10:30. This is just the sort of day when drains clog up with leaves and you get local flooding like your backyard! If you have such a drain near you, keep an eye on it. If I was running Bancroft today I'd be keeping a very close eye on the grill at Gillians at the entrance to the big culvert under the field to the dam, it's amazing what can come down off the moor on a day like this.
Later at 06:20. The forecast was dead right, it has started raining and the wind is gradually increasing.

[Tizer]

We've had bizarre weather in Somerset with some very warm days and nights. Saturday was one such with no need for any heating in the day or the night. At 10.00 in the evening the lounge was at 20 degrees without any heating having been on. Bonfire night was a toasty one too.

[Stanley]

Definitely not 'toasty' out there this morning Tiz. Jack and I have just been for our second walk and it's lousy! The wind is whipping the trees about and blowing constant rain in your face. We were only out there for ten minutes but Jack was soaked.... Don't worry, he's had a good rub down and is a happy bunny. It struck me that even though we think of air as being light stuff the amount that's being moved at up to 70mph on the tops is enormous and when you think about the energy involved it's awesome.
Moh was right about the leaves (and small twigs as well), they are showering down.
Later at 15:30. Still blowing and raining, I don't think the rain has stopped all day.... Thoroughly nasty! I remember picking milk up from farms on days like this in November.....

[Stanley]

Very gusty wind this morning and incredibly warm, they are saying that this could be the warmest November night ever recorded, I can believe it! Some raindrops blowing on the wind earlier. Just taken the ashes out and it's raining gently now. Glass is still steady on 29.2". Forecast is dead simple, good chance of rain all day brought in on a steady moderate but gusty wind from the SW. Theoretical high is 14C for the whole day but the wind chill will make it feel like 10C. Very unusual weather....
06:15. Back home after a pleasant walk on a very warm morning. The wind is very unpredictable, calm one minute and violent gusts the next. We were lucky with the rain, just an occasional spatter. Big drifts of leaves where the eddies have collected them. A surprising number of hooded figures moving through the gloom, does Silentnight have a 6AM shift?
Later after our mid morning walk. Some welcome sunshine between the clouds but it's getting gloomy again, probably some ,ore showers coming in but very pleasant while it lasted!

[Stanley]

Breezy and very mild first thing this morning but dry. At 05:30 the site server went down, maintenance I suppose, so Jack and I went out and were back shortly after 06:00. A moderate westerly breeze with very fine rain blowing in on it and ridiculously mild. Worst winter for fifty years? The glass is still rock steady at just over 29.2", not signalling any change at all. The forecast is for an overcast day with the chance of a shower at any time until 17:00, most likely heavier from 11:00 onwards. There will be a steady moderate wind from the SW and the theoretical high is slightly lower at 13C but will be chilled by the wind to feel more like 10C. Sombre weather for any war memorial ceremonies.....

[Stanley]

Cool and breezy out there. The sky was clear first thing this morning and I've just checked, I can only see one star now so I think it's clouding over. The Shipping Forecast is dire, lots of very strong winds about, Moh's Abigail could be coming in. The glass , funnily enough is up this morning at 29.4", not what I expected at all. The forecast is for a cooler bright day with a steadily rising wind from the SW but not getting any stronger than moderate by the end of the day. A spell of rain is expected early evening and the theoretical high of 12C will never feel warmer than 9C. Colder tomorrow.....
06:10. Back in the hutch after a much cooler walk but the sky is clearing, more stars visible and it's dry. Not bad November weather....

[Moh]

Lovely bright autumn day but breezy - just got a pair of curtains dried outside. I don't think there will be much more drying outside, my grandma always said nothing would dry for 6 weeks before and 6 weeks after Christmas.

[Stanley]

Never heard that one before Moh but I wouldn't argue with your grandma.

Cool, clouded over, breezy and damp but not raining first thing this morning. The rain came in as forecast at about 16:00 yesterday. The glass is back on 29.1" this morning after it's brief excursion yesterday to 29.5". The forecast is for a much colder day. A heavy shower is forecast for 04:00 (just taken the ashes out and they are spot on, cold hard rain!) However there will be a break in the rain until around 07:00 and then it sets in for the day. The SW or West wind will be moderate and persist all day. The theoretical high for today is 6C but the wind chill will keep it down to 1C or lower. A cold nasty day in prospect. Saturday and Sunday are expected to be warmer but with persistent rain, heavy at times. Get the shopping done and the coal in and wait for it to pass!
07:40. Jack and I were down at the butcher's by just after 6AM and straight back home. The sky was clear, stars shining and a promise of dawn in the East as we walked back. The forecast was right about the wind chill, the blustery wind cuts like a knife! As soon as the Cathedral of Choice was open at 7AM I went and got my milk and one or two odds and sods, the sky was full of angry looking clouds and it was just starting to rain. Good timing! I am back inside now with the hatches battened down, I shall not go out again until Jack's late morning walk. If the forecast is correct this rain will be with us until Monday.... Deep Joy!

[Wendyf]

Wouldn't be surprised if we get some snow...have a look at my weather station link to see how cold it is this morning! The monitor indoors is reading 1.2C brrr.

[Moh]

We have just had 2 showers of hail and at the moment it is sleeting!! North Scotland have suffered from Abigail.

[Stanley]

It was definitely the coldest day yet this back end. However, we had some clear bright spells with a bit of welcome sun. This morning it's a tad milder out there but not much, not raining but very damp and a brisk West wind. The glass is up again at 29.4" The forecast is for a dry spell after a shower in the next hour but then a rising chance of rain for the rest of the day from 07:00 onwards. There are warnings in force that the rain could get very heavy as the temperature rises sharply this evening to a theoretical 13C no doubt due to the tropical origin of the rain bearing clouds. The wind is a brisk westerly all day apart from a bit of variation in the late afternoon before the heavy rain comes in. For most of the day it will feel like 1C in the wind but rise to about 9C later in the heavy rain and strong wind. Look to those drains and culverts, the ground is soaked and the rain that falls will run off easily. Looks like a busy late evening for the flood watchers....
Looks like a day in the barn for Dennis and Sparky!
05:20. The forecast was right about the early rain. It's abated now so I think an early walk is called for!
Back in the hutch before 06:00. Overcast sky and wet underfoot but not raining so it was a good walk! Jack dry and empty. However, that wind is biting when you are exposed to it. It made my ears tingle and my nose run.... They were right about 1C.