Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Marilyn]

South Australia is now declared Coronavirus FREE.
Our last remaining case has resolved.

[Tizer]

Well done, Maz, let's hope it stays that way!

Some things here don't add up. India has a vast population, and ideal conditions for virus spread including crowded housing, multi generation households, and perhaps some genetic pre- disposition, yet they have in total less than 10% of our level of deaths from this virus.

The Indian government itself admits that even in normal times only 22% of deaths in the country are medically certified. Mis-diagnosis of the cause of death is also common in India and there is also the possibility that doctors don't want to scare people and therefore won't put down covid-19 as a cause. Another factor is that most people in India die at home rather than in hospital and even those who go to hospital often return home to die. The reported covid deaths are only those who die in hospital.

I got a slight whiff of the lady's perfume. Got me to thinking - if perfume can travel instantly to get up my nose over that distance, perhaps a virus can as well?

Perfume scents are small molecules and they'll travel much further and faster than virus particles, and especially virus in tiny blobs of mucus. Also, whether you get infected or not depends on the amount of virus - an `infective dose' is required. Unfortunately we don't know what that it is - we can't go deliberately infecting people with covid-19 to find out. Look on the bright side, the further you are from the infected person the more dilute will be any miasma of virus around you!

[Tripps]

From the Politics thread -

"On a brighter note, daughter Susan is back at work at the care home and told me yesterday that she is very impressed by the precautions the management have put in place. Of course they have had deaths, the clients are very frail and elderly but allowing for that she is happy with the way things are going now. It appears that some lessons have been learned and are being implemented".

Good news - but my immediate reaction is did she infect residents when she was without symptoms or did she become infected from residents? Did she pass the virus to her husband, who was also infected, or vice versa? We'll never know.

Yesterday's news from Matt Hancock was that by the end of this month - within two weeks - all staff and residents of all care homes will be tested for the virus. I'll watch the result with interest. Knowing what I do about care homes - and we were told yesterday that about a third of the deaths from this virus are in care homes, - I'm amazed that the figure is so low, and that it was also said yesterday that "most care homes are virus free".

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Today's issue is return to school for children. I hear equally convincing reports from medical experts that either children can be strong vectors of infection, or there have been no known cases where children have infected anyone. they can't both be right - which is it?

**********************

It was announced that from the end of May all arrivals in UK ports and airports would be subject to 14 days self isolation. An exception would be made for anyone arriving from France - presumably to enable the arrival of the enormous amount of goods arriving by ferry. The EU objected to one of their member states being treated differently to the others, and HMG have backed down an say it it'll apply to all now. Since even today many are arriving free of all restrictions and border checks 'too little too late' would seem to be fair comment.

It's very easy to be an armchair critic.

[Tripps]

Thanks for the help Tiz. I said something didn't add up.

So the figures given in the apparent reference site Worlometers are of little value since all countries use different methods of counting and some are 'fiddling' the figures. Politics is a big factor in this situation. .

i have never believed the Chinese numbers yet I've heard British scientists use them as a basis for some of their conclusions. I'm reminded of the spoon bender Uri Geller. He was tested by 'scientists who rather naively said he was genuine. Paul Daniels could have told you immediately how he did it.

Stay cynical. . .

[chinatyke]

i have never believed the Chinese numbers ...
Stay cynical. . .

You didn't experience the measures that were taken to stop the spread and trace contacts, all at a time of year when normally millions of migrant workers travel home. There were no half-hearted lock-down measures like we're hearing about in other countries, people did as they were told and Chinese New Year celebrations were cancelled. Also the population and country is huge and most areas were not severely affected. You can take these measures when the citizens are prepared to act for the common good.
On Friday I went to Nanning on the train. The police and a railway employee boarded the train and photographed my ticket and passport for contact tracing purposes. A bit OTT because my name and passport number is already given on the ticket and will be in their records, the same as for every other passenger. The train was full and passengers were normally spaced with everyone wearing a mask, even though we know that most masks are not very effective, better than nothing though.
Do I believe the figures? Maybe!

[Whyperion]

, whether you get infected or not depends on the amount of virus - an `infective dose' is required. Unfortunately we don't know what that it is - we can't go deliberately infecting people with covid-19 to find out. Look on the bright side, the further you are from the infected person the more dilute will be any miasma of virus around you!

Given the common cold research I would think somewhere between 1/3 and 2/3rds the dose of a rhinovirus, taking a rough mix of the difference in the accessway the virus works and the time the immune systems respond.

Meanwhile on the Blood Clot effects of the disease , once again there is the confusion of what is immune response ( death of adjoining cells occuring faster than the body can clear the dead cells away ), and what is the direct methodolgy of the virus attacking cells before they die causing effectively enlarged cells working as factories to produce more virus - I suspect the mix of the two is the reason why the stickyness and clotting does not respond to normal blood thinning drugs - because the chemical way they work is not the way the blood this time is coming to thicken.

[Tizer]

...the reason why the stickyness and clotting does not respond to normal blood thinning drugs - because the chemical way they work is not the way the blood this time is coming to thicken.

There seems to be a number of factors operating and it will vary from patient to patient. Also note that a relatively high proportion of badly affected covid patients already have clotting problems and may or may not be on anti-clotting drugs. This article in Nature journal shows how complicated the clotting story is but also confirms that scientists and medics are researching it.
`Coronavirus blood-clot mystery intensifies: Research begins to pick apart the mechanisms behind a deadly COVID-19 complication' Nature

Today's issue is return to school for children. I hear equally convincing reports from medical experts that either children can be strong vectors of infection, or there have been no known cases where children have infected anyone. they can't both be right - which is it?

The latter is wrong, some evidence shows they can be spreaders. See this article: LINK On the other hand there have been claims that they don't spread it. And this underlines one of the big problems with this pandemic - because it's a new virus and it's already spread worldwide it's not surprising we are seeing a lot of contradictory reports. A scientific project on the effects of the virus repeated in several countries can give very different results from one country to the next for a wide range of reasons.

[Whyperion]

Chinese Numbers, for infections, deaths, recoveries. The perecentages to populations age adjusted seem much the same as elsewhere, some discoveries in uk and maybe elsewhere that the type speed and ferocity of ventilation of cases may not have occured in china, of if it did sharing of the procedures not made clear. Despite Michael Gove's nearly convincing words that with care homes and hospital progressions of cases in the UK we could not make much of a difference to infections and outcomes that is clearly rubbish, but if we take best uk practice when it occurs the lockdown spread seems reasonable if china made swift and comprehensive movement lockdown.

[PanBiker]

A lot of talk about lockdown, which in the UK has not really happened only suggested. Please stay at home and keep two metres apart and all that. No enforcement, we have not had a curfew or closed our borders. Just thinking about that now, three months too late. Other countries that have had proper strict lockdown including closed borders have done much better. Thailand reports this morning something like 56 deaths. New Zealand and Australia are others that got it right. Meanwhile in the local forest that is England, we are at direct odds with the other nations of the union and are insisting on gathering potential super spreaders together and making the teachers responsible for everyone's safety.
Madness of the greatest degree and will do nothing for the education of the reception and year six kids for the odd week or two. Risk outweighs the benefit but par for the course if you want to test the water with the equivalent of guinea pigs. It's actually criminal intent in my book. You need twice as many teacher for half as many kids and anyone who has visit you average primary school will know that apart from the hall there is usually not enough room to swing a cat. My daughter normally teaches 30 kids with 4 to 6 to a table, lots of shared resources, who is going to clean all that lot multiple times every day?

[Tizer]

Whether to send the kids back to school or not, it's a terribly difficult decision. It's risky all round, for children and probably more so for teachers, in terms of exposure to the virus. But keeping them away from school is damaging the future lives of the children. It's also preventing escape from home for those children who are verbally and/or mentally abused at home. Also those kids who depend on school for proper meals and need the emotional comforting from teachers and friends that they can't get at home.

Here's something different to think about. Projects are underway to identify and quantify the ways that the virus affects patients of different ethnicities, nationalities, skin colour, sex, age, health etc. I think in the UK we should add to this list the taking of illicit drugs. The UK is second only to the USA in cocaine usage as % of population. Londoners are consuming more cocaine than any other European city. In 2019 the amount of cocaine consumed in the UK was 117 tonnes according to customs officers. That's 117,000 kg or 117 million grams or 117 billion milligrams. I read that an average dose of cocaine is 44 mg therefore 2.7 billion doses were consumed in the year. For simplicity assume it's used at a rate of one dose a day, that's about 7 million doses a day. That's a lot of people taking cocaine, and many of them are in London and that's where we have the highest concentration of covid-19 cases. Keep in mind too that cocaine use is now among all parts of the population, not just the rich junkies. Add to that all the people taking heroine, ecstasy and other illicit drugs. I think it would be worthwhile including information on the use of such drugs in the above-mentioned trials.

[Tripps]

The latter is wrong, some evidence shows they can be spreaders. See this article: LINK On the other hand there have been claims that they don't spread it. And this underlines one of the big problems with this pandemic - because it's a new virus and it's already spread worldwide it's not surprising we are seeing a lot of contradictory reports. A scientific project on the effects of the virus repeated in several countries can give very different results from one country to the next for a wide range of reasons.

The link is from Chinese research. I still view all such information with due care and attention. Their death numbers were constant for a while, then one day they 'changed how they counted' an the number went up overnight by exactly 50% ! That's handy.

China - I value your input. It all sounds a bit 1984'ish for my taste. Are the stories of welding people into their flats true? That is 'lockdown' ! Does your travel data collection happen everywhere, How on earth does the State manage all that data, and what use is made of it in addition to contact tracing?

PS I saw this China train journey recently. Found it interesting. Just seven years ago, and not high speed, but has the 'ring of truth' I'd say. Apologies for going off topic, but I'd say the background politics of this virus situation is closely tied in to the science. .

PS - If children do spread the virus without showing symptoms (and I'm still not sure if they do or not) then the schools should not open yet. Too much risk of infecting teachers, and others outside the school who would come to harm. Perhaps a whole academic year should be sacrificed in the cause? In the long term, it would not matter. Discuss.

[plaques]

Madness of the greatest degree and will do nothing for the education of the reception and year six kids for the odd week or two. Risk outweighs the benefit but par for the course if you want to test the water with the equivalent of guinea pigs. It's actually criminal intent in my book.

Without a test to see who has had covid. and those who have actually carrying it and by bundling teachers and children together it is exactly the opposite of the logic behind the 'R' contact factor. By assembling them into a single environment the theory of random contact falls down completely. The only time this approach can be considered safe is when you are 100% sure that no one is carrying the virus. It only requires one then the potential to infect would put the 'R' value through the roof. Would the people who are suggesting this approach put their own kids up for experiment? I doubt it.

[PanBiker]

Perhaps a whole academic year should be sacrificed in the cause? In the long term, it would not matter. Discuss.

So far the kids have only missed a couple of months of education and many have had the benefit of home schooling to different degrees. There are loads of resources available both via the internet and the TV as well as time spent learning on walks and other activities and sharing time with parents. I take the point about disadvantaged children but who is going to decide which of the chosen reduced number of kids actually attend what happens to the other half who don't get to go? I would ask the question why send back the reception kids at the start of their education which is mainly play based and the year sixes who have almost finished before going up to secondary. Will two or three more weeks actually make all that difference, especially under what could only be regarded as reduced, due to the situation, teaching practices? With regard to the feeding of kids at school, it is very doubtful that any school kitchens will be open to cater for them, no mention has been made of this area of the school day.

[Sue]

My 8 year old extravert granddaughter, has become very silent and with drawn. As parents I cannot fault the way my daughter and son in law have wholeheartedly supported tgeir children whilst both working from home. The eldest grand daughter has blossomed i into a wonderful capable organised and chatty 11 year old. She hits the schoolwork as soon as it goes online at 7.00 pm, so she can chill out and do her own thing the following day. This usually involves cooking of some sort an online exercise class and a long bike ride with her Dad at night. The 8 year old, with the same opportunities and even greater personal support is very sad. Her smile has gone, her bubbliness disappeared. She hardly chats when I contact them. When asked if she wants to chat her answer is , ‘ok whatever!’ I am very worried about the long term consequences. She needs to get back to school a d her other interests. On a plus the two sisters have never got on so well.

[chinatyke]

China - I value your input. It all sounds a bit 1984'ish for my taste. Are the stories of welding people into their flats true? That is 'lockdown' ! Does your travel data collection happen everywhere, How on earth does the State manage all that data, and what use is made of it in addition to contact tracing?

PS I saw this China train journey recently. Found it interesting. Just seven years ago, and not high speed, but has the 'ring of truth' I'd say. Apologies for going off topic, but I'd say the background politics of this virus situation is closely tied in to the science. .

Yes, the same rules on travel apply across China.

Love the story of the rail journey and appreciate it. The railway system these days is state of the art and a world-class model. China has changed enormously in the last few years.

Big data is collected by the State and I'm sure it will be used for many purposes. I'm not the least bit concerned about it. This is a controlled and well-governed country. In the west you have many organisations collecting the same big data (Google, YouTube, Facebook, Amazon etc etc).

I can understand the story arising of welding people into their apartments. Most apartment outer doors are steel and could be welded closed for security. Definitely not with people inside! The west will believe anything bad about China and it is easy to fabricate stories and publish them on the Internet with photographic "evidence".

[Stanley]

Sue, that would worry me as well. The side effects of lockdown are greater than realised I suspect. But bear in mind that kids are so resilient. I remember how we coped with the war, better than adults in many cases.

[Tizer]

This reminds me of my own experience in the 1990s after a bad respiratory infection but at least I didn't end up with ME/CFS. I know someone who did get ME and she ended up in a wheelchair for the rest of her life...
`Mystery of prolonged Covid-19 symptoms adds to unknowns: Growing evidence some sufferers endure problems from fatigue to organ pains for six weeks or more' Financial TimesT

Back in April New Scientist magazine published this article..
`Could the coronavirus trigger post-viral fatigue syndromes?: Conditions like chronic fatigue syndrome have been linked to viral infections, so it’s possible that the covid-19 virus may go on to trigger similar conditions' LINK

[Whyperion]

...the reason why the stickyness and clotting does not respond to normal blood thinning drugs - because the chemical way they work is not the way the blood this time is coming to thicken.

There seems to be a number of factors operating and it will vary from patient to patient. Also note that a relatively high proportion of badly affected covid patients already have clotting problems and may or may not be on anti-clotting drugs. This article in Nature journal shows how complicated the clotting story is but also confirms that scientists and medics are researching it.
`Coronavirus blood-clot mystery intensifies: Research begins to pick apart the mechanisms behind a deadly COVID-19 complication' Nature

While I note that might be true for older people, the blood clot information ancedotally seems to be with those who have no known underlying conditions. While there is tiny evidence - in China between statistically inconclusive and also logically wrong , I still wonder if there are some blood-type issues (including RH and Sickle and other blood variations . Has anyone studied how blood systems and white cell production works and can be affected by intruder ingress?

[Stanley]

Tiz, all this speculation is a mistake I reckon. Too many people are making themselves ill wondering what might happen. Better to just concentrate on dealing with matters day to day. Everything else is out of our control.
Come to think, that's one of the biggest effects, people worrying about control of their lives. Useless! Just get on with it.

[plaques]

Sorry Stanley I can't agree with you on that one. So little is known about this covid-19 virus that almost every day something else pops out of the woodwork. People are not stupid and having been warned not to put themselves at risk you can't blame them if they do exactly what they feel is best for themselves. Lots of couples are reliant on each other for their life styles and what happens if they lost their partner. Businesses are teetering on the verge of bankruptcy. Families are worried about their children. The unemployed are wondering whether there will be a job for the at the end of it all. Personal finances are coming under greater strain. I wouldn't call this speculation more an act of common sense. All doom and gloom I agree but just because you give over counting infection rates, deaths etc, doesn't make the problem go away. Be optimistic by all accounts but be realistic at the same time.
Are things out of peoples control? Not one bit. They just want truthful answers and not half answers and speculation. Ultimately they will decide what is gong to happen never mind what the government says.

[Whyperion]

I am still trying to seek if the keys on Coronavirus/es are important as to its impact,particulary in the movement,breeding and retention in the upper respiratory tract (the non-sympomatic-generally- but contagious in droplet handling form), and movement to elsewhere in the respiratory system and elsewhere in the body.

In respect of viruses bringing about ME and similar it appears that the pushing while picking a nose can place viruses into the brain areas as membrans although thick to most things,to viruses seem crossable (? can gas vapours have the same crossing effect?).

Additionally are we certain of the known/declared dates of the known start of the disease- is there some thought that there was a commencement in Dec 2019 ? Certainly Wuhan's Huanan wet market, where China says the novel coronavirus outbreak originated, on January 21,2020 but, there was an episode of transmission The Jan. 22 , 2020 canteen scene at Webasto in Germany, I am unclear if the Chinese collegue visiting from China had arrived before that date. { i read further, yes, Jan 19th - with a meeting with the German person on Jan 20th,, the canteen incident two days later }( (with personal hindsight i should have turned my small pension savings into cash then but I dont recall the reporting of the disease transmission and impact being wholly clear).

i have also talked about virus particles , while the virus itself seems to reproduce quickly and to extremely high amounts even in non-sympton cases is it possible that fractions of a virus could cause disease- ie how much of a whole virus is viable, in vitro, and in body? have these questions been asked? and clear answers found ?

[Pluggy]

BBC2 Horizon Program aired tonight with much of the latest research https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... ial-part-2, First cases are thought to be 1st December or possibly earlier according to Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic 17th of November according to articles like this https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... how-report.

[Stanley]

P. Sorry I must have put that badly. I agree absolutely with you. I wasn't referring to sensible decisions but to useless speculation of which there is far too much, largely emanating from 'news' programmes who are looking for a fresh angle.
Re. sensible decisions... remember me saying that I have decided to pursue isolation until a vaccine is available and delivered? I got a letter from Airedale yesterday telling me that until further notice all my cancer treatment and assessments are on hold as the risk of exposing me at hospital is greater than that of any deterioration in my condition. Exactly what I had decided. So they agree that it was a sensible decision. I will apply the same logic to the diabetic programme at the surgery as well. On balance it's my safest course. My best guess as to when that will be is in two years.
Pluggy, I noted that but it was too late for me, I shall watch it tonight.

[Sue]

I haved stopped watching or reading, unless something particularly catches my eye. So much is repeated information or speculation. We will not know the true impact medically or otherwise for a couple of years. All these programmes serve to confuse and distress. Its impossible to know which are useful, which are giving new information, which are speculation before you watch. I shall await my official guidance and instruction. Its back to sewing and genealogy for me.( I made Bobs summer shirt this week) I think the daily reports at 5.00 have lost their relevance and should now be weekly. All this going up and down of the graph as it slowly comes down reminds me of my daily walks, and they tire me out.

[plaques]

Adding to Pluggy's post on when the covid -19 as to when the virus first started its worth looking at some of the national statistics on Influenza Like Illnesses, ( ILI ) which have been collected for some years. These include the various types of Flu that affect the respiratory system. Types A,B,C,D with type 'A' being the most serious. The results for week 45 (7 Nov 2019 ) are shown here. Report
These reports include the main areas of infection. Community, ( this includes Care Homes ), Primary care ( GP Practices ), Secondary Care, ( Hospitals ). Also included are the vaccination take up rate ( 94.2% ). In general the incidence of Flu was lower than the normal average. A very comprehensive report which gets harder to find after week 45. ??

The question must be asked why did the government not include the community figures in the Covid-19 results until late into the pandemic. Also why compare Covid-19 with Flu when the flu is under vaccine control? These are not like for like figures. Why did the government initially adopt the 'herd' approach when releasing something more serious than the 'A' type flu into the population without a vaccine would be devastating?
One could easily drop into the conspiracy theory that old and infirm people are dispensable and would reduce the cost of care, pensions,etc, while at the same time releasing equity through house sales and reducing annuity payouts. After all old people are non-productive.
Shame to say that it looks like this gamble didn't pay off and the government is trying to hide behind comparative statistics and blaming others for poor information.