Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[PanBiker]

I had three weeks of the coughing before Christmas. I know of quite a few who had similar stubborn ailments. It leads me to believe that this virus in one mutation or another was already in the country despite what has been accepted as the genus and original spread dates.

[Tripps]

'They' are seemingly considering 'immunity certificates' to allow those who have been infected to return to work. I think I'm right in saying that no one yet definitively knows whether immunity is a certain follow on to infection, and if so - how long it lasts.

"We're following the science"

A record number of tests was announced yesterday. James O'Brien on LBC said this morning that the number of antigen tests was based on the fact that a nasal swab and a throat swab counted as two tests. ** I think we had assumed they counted as two parts of one test. So if you were thinking that 100,000 tests meant that 100,000 people were tested - then you were mistaken. Especially as some 40,000 wre just out in the post for DIY purposes, and 20,000 + were tests carried out during 'research'.

** I've not seen this story followed up in any other outlet. I wonder if it's true.

Remember Matt Hancock's five pillars of testing when he announce the target in mid April. Do they do training on dissembling when they enter the Hose of Commons, or does it just come naturally to them?

The mobile phone tracking system trialling on the IOW, seems to be a failure - but no one will admit it yet. Boris, not deterred, says we will have a 'world beating. tracking system. I'm not sure that your first attempt should be at the world record - I'd settle for just an ordinary one.

PS The Chief scientific Advisor has just confirmed para 1, and said that talk of Immunity passports is premature.

[Whyperion]

PB , but how do you account for previous years of heavy colds (That before I had my tonsils out always went to bronchitis), and coughs, corona variants or virus (or even bacterial infections), has research concluded that there was any specific general variant going around the UK of the more normal colds in December , none of the Covid-2 people though as reported in some of the BBC etc reports have mentioned that they had had bad colds in December - again has that been followed up in the science research?

P - I didn't have the fever, but I did have minor deliurium - I have had that before with flu and get used to it, I had my normal ginger/lemon/fruitcocktail / strepsils/ hot water/ asthma inhaler self medication and did not bother the doctors for anti-biotics, but I also had terrible skin itching- I thought i had bed bugs and had allegy to their droppings - the itch is still about a little bit and sunlight is making it worse, which is unusual for me and I am finding minor scratches are not healing as I would like staying visible.

Tizer - I specifically said SARS so sorry if introducing that into lattitudes considerations for Covid-2 was not intended as Covid-2 clearly is more infectious (or it might be just more human movement x slow to politically react or Cov-2 more than a lower respiratory infection) in all places.

In news , Sir Patrick Vallance says a negative coronavirus test is "not very predictive", as the virus takes a few days to incubate. Just saying someone is negative doesn't mean they "won't get it in a week's time", he adds. This seems to muddle two things 1) If you have Covid-2 in small amounts where it has not generated whatever that a test will pick up then the test is ineffective. 2)You might not have Covid-2 in any amount, obviously you might pick it up in the community at any time. Either way the comment is statistically and scientifically wrong as you cannot get something in a weeks time if you have it now albeit that you cannot detect the presence.

For now current infections in the UK are running a constantish 61,000 per day, which obviously is a small trend reduction but is is not clear if say the reason for the new cases is consequences of things in the past 14 days is, or being not brought down as an absolute number as lockdown ease changes, it should be able with that fairly low number to make an assessment of where geographical main areas are and if any addressesable issues can be rectified - household size, occupation for example.

Finally tizer are you suggesting that people with very active (as in everything) immune systems are less likely to be affected by Covid-2 or some other infections. The problem is that with humans the incubation period as animals is effectively 14 years minimum, needing community care for infants if parental care is not around ( some thought there on why same-sex relationships occur to provide care partners when family reproduction units are damaged by illness (or war)), so herd immunes dont wholly work except when there is a high level of births in family units in a short time, and presumably that the women in those units actually chose more than one male to maximise a good gene variety pool - which goes against most social norms of lifetime one partner ( I am reminded of a great grandmother, she had 11 children then the first husband died, she remarried and had 11 more , I am not sure how many survived beyond infancy, I think it was 5 plus two that had mild genetic/mental (could have been caused by toxic environments or early disease from the first marriage.)).

[Whyperion]

On the childhood Virus effects, I wonder if a treatment with leeches would be pallative ?

[plaques]

Some people may say that I'm in a state of delirium for the best part of the day. Joking aside I would have probable rode the cough out without going to the doctors but my breathing started to sound like an accordion hence Mrs P insistence. As Panbiker mentioned this was before the coronavirus came out in the public domain which one think that the medics knew that it was something novel but didn't want to be the first to declare it? Look how China has been pilloried for declaring what has now been named covid-19. Bad news is never welcome, so shoot the messenger.

[chinatyke]

Here is some information from the SUN:

Deaths by age group:
75+ 30135
65-74 6340
45-64 4160
14-44 448
<15 3
Total 41086
I make that 88.8% of the total deaths are patients who are aged 65 or over. A staggering statistic. Perhaps a lock down for just the crumblies would seem more appropriate?
Another article in the same paper says total deaths in UK is 36393, so there is no guarantee to the accuracy of The Sun's report.

[Stanley]

"Do they do training on dissembling when they enter the House of Commons, or does it just come naturally to them?"
Whether its acquired or natural it is essential to becoming a high ranking politician Tiz.

[plaques]

On the childhood Virus effects, I wonder if a treatment with leeches would be pallative ?

An interesting thought if you could find a bank that does this sort of thing. Leeches tend to be used for their anticoagulant properties. Leeches

People with anemia, blood clotting conditions, or compromised arteries are not candidates for leech therapy. Children under the age of 18 years old and women who are pregnant are also usually advised to avoid it.

[Tizer]

"Do they do training on dissembling when they enter the House of Commons, or does it just come naturally to them?"
Whether its acquired or natural it is essential to becoming a high ranking politician Tiz.

? I don't recall writing that. Have I been posting in my sleep perhaps?

I make that 88.8% of the total deaths are patients who are aged 65 or over. A staggering statistic. Perhaps a lock down for just the crumblies would seem more appropriate? Another article in the same paper says total deaths in UK is 36393, so there is no guarantee to the accuracy of The Sun's report.

This article has a simple graphic showing the age distribution of deaths and if my calculation is correct it works out at 73% of deaths are in the over-75s (but the data is for 8th May). The article is by James Gallagher Health, the BBC Health and Science Correspondent, and is primarily about children. It's very good on how susceptible children are to covd-19 and how likely they are to spread it. It should be read by anyone who wishes to comment on the issue over whether or not to send children back to school yet. `Coronavirus: Children half as likely to catch it, review finds' LINK

On the question of whether all those late 2019 coughs were covid-19 the answer is no. Mrs Tiz had a bad cough then, so did many people. Bacterial sore throats and coughs are common, so is bacterial pneumonia. Some are mild, some are serious. Covid-19 started in Wuhan, it has been genetically tracked to that epicentre. Have a read of this article by Fergus Walsh, BBC Medical Correspondent, who was tempted to think he must have had the virus but then realised it couldn't be that: 'I was gobsmacked to test positive for coronavirus antibodies' LINK
The coronavirus disease is named `COVID-19', the virus responsible is the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, `SARS-CoV-2'.

Tripps - regarding your comments on immunity, testing and tracking. Go to the recent episodes of Radio 4's `More or Less' and `Inside Science' programmes. They go into all this in great detail and are as up to date as you can get. Also, they are independent, authoritative and have access to the best experts. In particular they are regularly trashing the claims on testing by teasing out the true story. I recommend all OGers to listen to these programmes!

Another BBC Correspondent, this time for Technology, Rory Cellan-Jones, has gone through the US training scheme for people who will work in contact tracing (the UK scheme said they couldn't take him). LINK
Coronavirus contact tracing: My new skill

[Tripps]

Have a read of this article by Fergus Walsh, BBC Medical Correspondent, who was tempted to think he must have had the virus but then realised it couldn't be that:

He must be easily 'gobsmacked' since he did a similar article on April 3rd 2020, (thanks Evernote) in which he described being found to have antibodies to the virus. Now he does three separate tests which confirm it. I'm getting confused here now - He had symptoms in early January, and since there had been no official cases at that time, thinks he can't have had it. Yet he says " it seems I have definitely had coronavirus."

We've heard several fairly convincing accounts of possible infections before the officially confirmed cases - on this site, (plaques I think), and in the family. We'll find out the truth eventually I suppose.

[Whyperion]

Sorry Tiz, are you saying that the test for Covid-19 antibodies will concur that other Coronavirus anti-bodies (like Cold?) are the SARS-2 antibodies ? (is the test exclusive enough?0

BBC Reports . China reported no new confirmed cases on the mainland for the first time since the outbreak began. The country has recorded more than 84,000 infections and 4,600 deaths/
To me even given the intention it seems low, but IF the lockdown was prompt (fairly prompt) and comprehensive (it seems to be) it shows that if you are not worried by mid term economic trashing then the longrun can be saved. In the USA and UK economic (or 'freedom of assembly) considerations first have led to a long run probability of an uncertain future, and lockdowns that capitalist economies could never recover in the same way from.

Was Cumming's travel , even if within guidelines at their loosest, unwise (in both directions ?) you cannot do 250 miles without comfort breaks for example.

[Whyperion]

On the childhood Virus effects, I wonder if a treatment with leeches would be pallative ?

An interesting thought if you could find a bank that does this sort of thing. Leeches tend to be used for their anticoagulant properties. Leeches

People with anemia, blood clotting conditions, or compromised arteries are not candidates for leech therapy. Children under the age of 18 years old and women who are pregnant are also usually advised to avoid it.

Leeches might be used for anti-coagulant properties, but localised applications in what appears to be a build up of debris in the blood at localised spots might be benificial if there is a clot to brain or lungs risk, appropriately monitored.

[Whyperion]

i'll stick it here, though it could go under politics. Ever since thatcher closed and sold off nurses accommodation near hospitals, no party has considered reversing that for housing priorities for the rented sector. Can we at least campaign, those with political connections, that care and health workers become priority local council accommodation persons if they are in danger of becoming, or are, homeless? There might be effective charities but most of them provide shared accommodation which in current circumstances seems inappropriate. Starmer has one on the health visa premium cost, we next need fast track to British Citizenship and somewhere to live, surely the best local funding as they will contribute to local economies, plus a living wage to reduce need to claim additional housing benefits. Johnson is on the back foot, the war of the last election was lost by Labour, but the battles of this parliament are now ready to be won. carers coping with homelessness

[Tizer]

Have a read of this article by Fergus Walsh, BBC Medical Correspondent, who was tempted to think he must have had the virus but then realised it couldn't be that:

He must be easily 'gobsmacked' since he did a similar article on April 3rd 2020, (thanks Evernote) in which he described being found to have antibodies to the virus. Now he does three separate tests which confirm it. I'm getting confused here now - He had symptoms in early January, and since there had been no official cases at that time, thinks he can't have had it. Yet he says " it seems I have definitely had coronavirus."
We've heard several fairly convincing accounts of possible infections before the officially confirmed cases - on this site, (plaques I think), and in the family. We'll find out the truth eventually I suppose.

He went on to have the further tests and concludes that he must have been an asymptomatic case but that would have been later. His illness in early January would not have been covid-19 but he's had it without symptoms at a later stage. He finishes by saying: `It [antibody testing] will also give us the first really accurate picture of how many people have had coronavirus without knowing it, so-called asymptomatic cases - people, it seems, like me.'

[Tizer]

Sorry Tiz, are you saying that the test for Covid-19 antibodies will concur that other Coronavirus anti-bodies (like Cold?) are the SARS-2 antibodies ? (is the test exclusive enough?

If you're referring to the sentence `The coronavirus disease is named `COVID-19', the virus responsible is the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, `SARS-CoV-2'' it slipped in by mistake. It's simply the WHO definition for naming the current virus and its disease. Everyone, me included, bandies about the two terms, mostly the `covid-19', but there is a distinction in medical circles.

[Whyperion]

Sorry Tiz, are you saying that the test for Covid-19 antibodies will concur that other Coronavirus anti-bodies (like Cold?) are the SARS-2 antibodies ? (is the test exclusive enough?

If you're referring to the sentence `The coronavirus disease is named `COVID-19', the virus responsible is the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, `SARS-CoV-2'' it slipped in by mistake. It's simply the WHO definition for naming the current virus and its disease. Everyone, me included, bandies about the two terms, mostly the `covid-19', but there is a distinction in medical circles.

I too am using the virus name and the disease name fairly interchangably , but hopefully separating out from the genius of "Coronavirus" which other sources, including the BBC headline, did not. (have i portmanteaued to Covid-2, as long as it it distiguishes I am not writing a science thesis, just making it clear enough where others might cause confusion- I will try to remember going forward) i think from memory though there are not 18 preceeding Covid diseases, there are more than one more? , is the WHO naming logical, are the two SARS viruses so close in visual or chemical form and how are they distingushable from MERS for example, anyway given the time from exposure to infectious to symptoms why the need for the 'Sudden' in the name , are there viruses that work by laying long term dorment ? The BBC Report test actually was unhelpful, Fergus does not appear to have had a full blood test, the pin-prick ones we know were/(are still?) unreliable, if i were him I would have tried a couple of blood samples from the dog and a friend.

[Tripps]

I am not writing a science thesis, just making it clear enough where others might cause confusion-

Ah - I see. . .

[Stanley]

Tiz, quite right, it was David wot done it. (dissembling)
Susan and I decided that on a balance of probabilities, the advantages of being closer than 2 metres to allow a pedicure were worth the risk so we managed it. She aND DAUGHTER jESS HAVE MADE THE SAME DECISION SO SHE CAN HOLD kAHARA AND NOT DEPRIVE HIM OF HIS GRANDMA WHO HE RECOGNISES NOW. (bugger caps lock) Sensible risk management on mental health and development grounds I think.

[Stanley]

A random thought... How efficient is a full head of hair as a receptor for virus particles? Does this indicate the benefits of wearing a hat or shaving the head?
This hypothesis falls down immediately, Cummings is bald as a coot.... Back to the drawing board?

[Sue]

Some interesting little articles here on the science, some of which I have read myself but I do feel I am beginning to get out of my depth. This virus is teaching us a lot about immunity etc a d particularly risk factors. When Bob and I were walking the other day we started talking to someone carrying a very large camera. Our conversation started on photography and ended with him asking me what the R value was for flu and what did it have to get down to before we stop social distancing. I did not know so looked it up. Various pandemics of flu have been at about 1.6, apparently measles has the highest R value.

Now I have only ever had proper flu twice in my life. You know it when you have it, its not a bit like the common cold. I certainly didn’t catch it on the last two big flu epidemics. So what are the chances of me catching Covid 19. The R value in London is I think 0.4 , the rest of the country about 0.72-0.75. The highest being in the NW and the NE. This is much lower than flu , seasonal flu being 0.9 to 2.1

I did not find the answer to the level expected before we stop social distancing, but surely if we get the R value down to the normal underlying value for flu then the risk becomes very low. As my daughter said to me yesterday all of these measures were to enable the NHS to cope unlike the situation in Italy. So why are we now continuing. I know it is to stop a second spike, but if so many have had it will that be an issue. Julia and indeed Bob and I feel everyone will probably get it in the end but not en masses thus over running the NHS.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_r ... ion_number

So just why are we continuing with social distancing, we don’t do it for flu, measles etc.


I am thinking the bigger idea is to actually try and irradicate it. Although I don’t see how that is possible.

[plaques]

Sue. I think you know its all buried in the maths of 'R' value. Secondary infection depends on the company you are in, as your link explains..

Heterogeneous populations
In populations that are not homogeneous, the definition of R0 is more subtle. The definition must account for the fact that a typical infected individual may not be an average individual. As an extreme example, consider a population in which a small portion of the individuals mix fully with one another while the remaining individuals are all isolated. A disease may be able to spread in the fully mixed portion even though a randomly selected individual would lead to fewer than one secondary case. This is because the typical infected individual is in the fully mixed portion and thus is able to successfully cause infections. In general, if the individuals infected early in an epidemic are on average either more likely or less likely to transmit the infection than individuals infected late in the epidemic, then the computation of R0 must account for this difference. An appropriate definition for R0 in this case is "the expected number of secondary cases produced by a typical infected individual early in an epidemic".

[Wendyf]

Can anyone explain why the infection rate in London is now lower than anywhere else in the country? I'm sure people aren't obeying the lockdown rules any better than elsewhere, so is the virus losing its power there or have enough people already been infected?

[PanBiker]

I did not find the answer to the level expected before we stop social distancing, but surely if we get the R value down to the normal underlying value for flu then the risk becomes very low.

Surely the take up of our vaccination program for flu will have a great deal to do with the seasonal value for the infection. We don't have the benefit of a vaccine for Covid19 or even know how effective it will be for antibody production yet. So, the logical answer at the moment is still to exercise social distancing as the main limiting factor for further spread or another spike. It still does not explain the stats in London though, unless they are massaged to mask the truth.

[plaques]

I would suggest London is a special case. Start by counting the number of people admitted to London hospitals then hit it with some factor to get the overall infection rate. Stop people travelling into London. Allow them to work from home. close shops, pubs etc, and then social distancing one would expect the numbers to drop. Open them up to outside factors and see what happens. Thankfully not my problem.

[Tizer]

Wendy, the first wave has passed and it's now out in the provincial cities, but there'll likely be further waves as there was for the plague, Black Death and 1918 flu pandemic. It all depends on people's behaviour and how quickly we get drugs and vaccines.

Anyone with an interest in the present pandemic should read this article by Chris Morris of BBC Reality Check. The people caught breaking the social distancing rules shouldn't be fined, they should be made to sit through Morris giving this story as a lecture and then be tested on what they've learnt
`Coronavirus: 'Baffling' observations from the front line' LINK
`...Most people infected with the coronavirus have only mild symptoms, or sometimes none at all. But in many thousands of patients who fall critically ill, Covid-19 is a disease of alarming complexity. What follows is a summary, often in their own words, of what doctors have learnt about how Covid-19 attacks the human body, and what they still need to know...'.
And the young ones should particularily note this: `"We can have a patient in their 70s who has isolated respiratory failure and just needs a bit of help with a ventilator. And we can have a patient in their 20s who develops multi-organ failure very quickly."

And this is a good one on `How scared should we be?' LINK