Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

See THIS report on testing waste water. Sounds like common sense to me.....

[Sue]

See THIS report on testing waste water. Sounds like common sense to me.....

I see this refers to the Netherlands as did the article I put on. This is an interesting article, I must discuss it with my daughter. Monitoring Waste water treatment plants is her main responsibility in her job with the Environmental Agency. She will no doubt receive literature on this . She is full of useful information

[Stanley]

Good. I am glad you can insert it into the system Sue. Now go and do that dead-heading!

[Tizer]

See THIS report on testing waste water. Sounds like common sense to me.....

We seem to be going round in circles on this one. It must be good, it keeps popping up!

[Stanley]

We reflect what is going on out there in the real world. I forecast that the Westminster bubble will suddenly present it as a world-beating strategy very soon. They follow us.....
See THIS BBC report of a warning from a group of scientists sent to the WHO arguing that the evidence suggests that airborne transmission of the virus droplets is perhaps as important as direct exposure to a spray when someone coughs or sneezes. Sounds like sense to me, fine particles suspended in the air and of course most dangerous indoors with a group of people.

[plaques]

The future outlook on corvid transmissions gets gloomier by the day. Some of the recent studies are throwing up some alarming facts.
22% of people who tested positive didn't know they had the virus at the time of testing. This would imply that even though they were responsible enough to have a test they could inadvertently infecting others.
Only 3% of those who have had the virus showed any appreciable antibodies in their blood. ie: that they could contract the illness again. If these antibodies are relatively short lived then at 3% the population would never reach the magic 80% resistance necessary for herd immunity.

(apologies if the percentages of slightly wrong I'm going off memory which is failing fast)

[Tripps]

Best treat all statistics concerning this disease with caution. The BBC 'More or Less' team have found that two thirds of the testing kits sent out, were never returned. . The number of tests put in the post was used to rescue politicians from their failure to meet the targets which they had arbitrarily set themselves.

There's a lot that is not known about this virus. Today we are told that transmission through the air is possible, not just large droplets from an infected person coughing. Initially masks / face coverings were said to be ineffective - even by the W.H.O. - now they are compulsory in some settings. Precise social distancing limits of two, or one, or one and a half metres with mitigation, seem silly in real life.

Will it return in the winter. Is the current resurgence in Australia due the onset of winter there? Is re- infection possible? Can herd immunity be achieved - if so at what level of infection? I have not seen any convincing answers to any of these questions.

[Tizer]

See THIS BBC report of a warning from a group of scientists sent to the WHO arguing that the evidence suggests that airborne transmission of the virus droplets is perhaps as important as direct exposure to a spray when someone coughs or sneezes. Sounds like sense to me, fine particles suspended in the air and of course most dangerous indoors with a group of people.

The scientists and the WHO both seem to have got their knickers in a twist. Aerosols and droplets will both be involved in transmission, droplets in some scenarios, aerosols in others. I think the WHO prioritised droplets at the beginning because people have tended to think it's always aerial transmission and have paid little attention to hand-washing. Unfortunately this apparent disagreement will only confuse the public even more and allow them to ignore hand washing and wearing gloves.

I've just noticed this. More confusion perhaps?
`New government unit to take over Covid response' LINK

[Tizer]

22% of people who tested positive didn't know they had the virus at the time of testing. This would imply that even though they were responsible enough to have a test they could inadvertently infecting others.

I'd ignore that study, it was carried out on only 115 people. That's nowhere near enough to be a reliable study.

[Marilyn]

I think the problem arising in Australia is due to loosening of restrictions, combined with some cultures within our population that just will not be told and therefore believe they are beyond any restrictions. ( unfortunately many live in public housing and this affects others in close proximity).

[Tizer]

Exactly what we have here, Maz, but perhaps we have more of it! Not particularly public housing but densely populated areas.

[Marilyn]

...and I can only hope that with all attention being on our internal borders, the powers that be don’t take their eye off the ball in regard to nursing homes.
Hubby tells me that a plane load of passengers landed in New South Wales today and left the airport unchecked as officials were busy attending another flight. Really?! Here we go again. Wasn’t it a problem when we allowed a cruise ship to disembark without checking?
This is very worrying.

[Stanley]

Tiz, I saw the report about the new expert group. It confirms the matter I referred to a while back that the members of SAGE were getting a fed up with being rolled out as human shields every day. Apart from anything else it affected their day jobs.
Regardless of all the conflicting opinion and advice, I stick to my simple rule, keep well away from everyone!
Re 'normal' winter flu. I suspect that we will hear a lot about Covid piggy-backing on winter flu.

[PanBiker]

They will have to have a different regime at the surgery this year for the flu jab, that's a certainty. It would be better set up at a more roomy venue in my view. No chance of social distancing in the rabbit warren that is our medical centre.

[Whyperion]

Best treat all statistics concerning this disease with caution. The BBC 'More or Less' team have found that two thirds of the testing kits sent out, were never returned. . Can herd immunity be achieved - if so at what level of infection? I have not seen any convincing answers to any of these questions.

Was it found out why the tests were not returned ? ( its not nice doing the things you have to do I suppose). Johnson said in parliament yesterday that Nursing Home Staff can get tested ( presumably at a pop up or drive through ) weekly, and Residents Monthly (presumably Mail Out adminstered with the aid of nursing staff).
Herd Immunity - with respect to Coronaviruses, we dont really know even if we get personal immunity for any length of time. If we assume Herd Immunity is achievable lets us look at rough UK statistics. We know, that , give or take there have been 60,000 excess deaths as a result of the virus ( some may be other causes such as not getting a treatment to someone who has another illness or condition due to health service pressure, and there will be a few deaths avoided - like vehicle incidents, gang shootings, and so on). Now it has been noted that the present summer deaths are lower than the five year average and so some past excess are advance deaths of what would have been expected, but I dont think that will continue, again if deaths due to under treatment in health services for some conditions one would expect a small generalised rise in the number of deaths plus more deaths from long-term unknown post-viral conditions ( damaged organs, brain and so on). But if we ignore those rise factors then 60,000 deaths from Covid-19 , and there are 290,000 confirmed lab test cases, we could probably say that it is more likely that 600,000 persons have been infected (that may be too low if kids have had it without any symptoms). So 1% of the UK population infections 0.1% deaths. Herd Immunity, let us hope that 70% of population is enough. so, that is 42,000,000 million people, and lets assume the same death rate (which is also after interventions and treatments) , 4,200,000 EXTRA Deaths - that extra amount may be less as we can assume it will include all those who would die of other aging conditions within the next 12 months, which is around 500,000 - 600,000 (so I am saying that the number of covid deaths will actually incorporate more of the normal deaths).

Interestingly in 2015 the BBC reported estimates of annual deaths as a result of an aging population - "With life expectancy for men of 86 and for women of 89, annual deaths in the UK are expected to reach 627,000 by 2037, compared with 521,000 this year (2014?) "
One wonders if the life expectency of the general population is now falling (it was I think on last years stats). So our question is shall we say that Covid-19 would be expected to take 4.2m deaths, or will the number of fatal infections reduce owning to less other conditions contributing to death being iin the remaining population - I think we can, a halving of the death rate would not be unreasonable over time in a static population, so I would place the number of deaths in a 12 month period as 2.1m if no interventions occur and 75% of the population is infected by Covid-19 in a 12 month period. This shows why the 'shielding' was put in place, it does not reduce numbers, but moves that 2.1m over say 48months, at an expense of changes to economic life, social events, meeting, working, leisure activities. All the thinks that have pushed Rishi into a problem of evaporating tax receipts and a likely increase in unemployment, and a more costly NHS system with PPE changes and slower ways of dealing with person to person arrangements.
The numbers of deaths though take out a lot of health / care workers with expertise and a lot of support and volunteers - particularly as we have seen in the over 50 male population, and importing nurses from the Philippines is not going to last forever, this is going to mean that younger men are going to have to learn new skills.

Flu Season - given the effectiveness of the flu jabs I think this is less of a worry to the otherwise at risk groups, other individuals may feel wise to pay (or there employer pay) the £5/£10 cost at Boots for winter flu.

Tizer - I think I have seen other reports that between 20% and 33% of cases by testing have never shown the normal symptoms.

Social/Public Housing. With the current (and old) fad for building flats with limited space communal exitways stairwells or lifts, this gives one airspace for viruses to hang about, the other is where kids are in the blocks - there is no external safe playspace and this pushes on infection transmission by the teens years if they are hanging around together.

[Tizer]

Regardless of all the conflicting opinion and advice, I stick to my simple rule, keep well away from everyone!

Especially when you read about the sufferings of those who have been seriously ill with covid-19 as described in this article...
`Coronavirus: Why surviving the virus may be just the beginning' LINK
Perhaps a video should be made of the article and have it published widely on social media to get through to those people who think it's `no big deal'.

[plaques]

Just by reading Whyperion's and Tizer's posts especially the link makes me feel depressed already.
Something else to think about, Covid droplets V aerosols, to wear a mask or not? If you normally breath out into cold environment the water in the breath will condense and become visible. If you wear a mask the same effect is still there only reduced in quantity. If corvid can be transmitted by aerosols then masks may not be the total solution.

[Whyperion]

Well fitting masks. Masks sort of change behaviour (nudge theory again?) , you assume someone has an illness, and distance yourself from them.

For a (not quite chronological )list of BBC Stats reporting- paste this query into their search box - https://www.bbc.co.uk/search?q=cases++coronavirus+UK.

P. I was not trying to be depressing. I ignored any Vaccine, but of course the implications to UK could get close to zero IF we follow Aus, NZ, and most european countries and actually control our borders, the virus could be practically eliminated. This means the damaged bit of the economy will be from where we have depended on incoming business or tourism. The Rest of World - Africa, War Ravaged Places and South America do not look good and USA is a law unto itself, we can live with that.

It may be that actually social places may need to expand to accommodate less (pubs, shops, eateries), costs and prices will rise, rateable values will have to fall and an adjustment to rents but once it has stabilised we can move forward.

[Stanley]

Ken, don't get down-hearted! Build the equivalent of my shed and retreat into it and the arms of her indoors. Conversations outside in the fresh air at a safe distance fulfil my social needs. Perhaps I am just naturally anti-social?
Flu jab proximity to others, I agree Ian but on balance a risk worth taking. At the moment, that or a vaccine jab are the only reasons I would go to the surgery.

[Whyperion]

All that earlier talk about Corvid. BBC have problems with only one at a time in Commentary Box for TMS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/cricket/53327839

Are Birds a vector in carrying virus particles?

[plaques]

P. I was not trying to be depressing.

Ken, don't get down-hearted!

Thank's for the general concern. The men in white coats say its perfectly normal for folks like myself who have been in God's waiting room for some years to be apprehensive about the corvid pandemic. The rules of this game were set back in March which I will continue to follow until rain stops play. Not that I'm antisocial its just that most people don't like me, a bit like penicillin in a petri dish of bacteria, if they want to stand 4 meters away instead of 2 metres its Ok with me. In one respect I'm lucky that I've enough projects and gardening to keep me busy for the rest of my days.

[PanBiker]

Not that I'm antisocial its just that most people don't like me, a bit like penicillin in a petri dish of bacteria, if they want to stand 4 meters away instead of 2 metres its Ok with me.

In my meetings with you, I have always found you most amenable Ken. If you run out of garden projects you could always have a go at the novice licence for amateur radio. It's all done online nowadays. Get yourself a shack like me and you can talk to complete strangers thousands of miles away.

[Tizer]

Plaques, I sympathise with you. I have restricted breathing among other problems and would be an easy target for the covid virus. The breathing problem also means it's difficult for me to wear a mask. I stay away from groups of people, shops, pubs, public transport etc but there's no problem with going for a walk as long as I stay away from the groups. Having taken those precautions the risk of getting too close and catching the virus is very low now. You're statistically unlikely to catch it unless you start going inside crowded places without a mask. I've been going to garden centres since they opened (for plants - the cafes are shut).

Later...(I've just had to go and collect Mrs Tiz and a pile of books from the Library)...
There's lots of space in the garden centres and no need to get close up to people and the staff wear masks and are behind screens. Remember that for all the current talk about aerosols they get diluted fast in the open air and in large closed spaces like the garden centre and DIY sheds. One virus particle inhaled won't infect you, it needs to be a substantial dose because the virus will suffer attrition by your body's defence mechanisms. It can't multiply until it invades your cells and a lot of virus particles will be destroyed in that attempted invasion. For you and me, Plaques, the virus represents a big hazard but a low risk - like driving a car fast on the outside lane of the motorway. Keep positive. There's a massive effort going on worldwide to provide effective vaccines and drugs to counter this virus and this make us much better prepared for future incidents.

[Marilyn]

Gawd Plaquey...I like you! Don’t drop your ball now...please!
Hubby and I are quite antisocial too. I think that is why we do so well in this current situation. ( I mean...we love our kids when they visit but love to wave them off again. Nowadays the visit is FaceTime, so all done in half hour).

Are you really struggling with this Covid thing. Are your spirits low? Please let us know.

[Tizer]

This video of Boris Johnson's `My Address to School Leavers' presentation this morning is on Facebook and is worth watching. Put aside any party political bias and your views on his handling of the pandemic. I think it's well done and you certainly wouldn't get anything like this from Donald Trump! LINK