Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

Thanks Peter...
Good link which highlights just how dangerous Covid is and he doesn't begin to go into 'Late Covid' symptoms which are still a mystery and entirely unpredictable.

[Stanley]

Kath delivered butcher's order late last night because her son Carl has to isolate and can't work in the business. One of his children has tested positive. The virus is active!

[plaques]

How long is this virus going to affect our lives? The current propaganda is until we get a vaccine possibly in spring of 2021. Then people start looking at the numbers and say 'hold on old lad' look at it this way. The current uptake with the influenza vaccine amongst the over 60s group is 75%, This is considered a good uptake in the past years it has been much lower. If the covid virus vaccine gives a 75% immunity response then 75% of 75% = 56% of the of the over 60's population should have some resistance. But we now hear that some of the American drug makers are pushing for a lower immunity response of 50%. This gives 50% of 75% = 38% resistance. Ignoring the fact that those under 60 will probably be less likely to get the vaccination it means a best 45 out of every 100 of the over 60's population will always be at risk while in the worst case it could be 60 out of 100.
So even with a vaccine the more prudent will say 'bugger this for a game of soldiers' and carry on keeping themselves safe for yet another year.

[Stanley]

I absolutely agree Ken. Even when a vaccine is available I would need to see evidence that it was effective. Like normal winter flu, Covid isn't going to go away. It's a force of Nature and it's out there. That's why we need to be attending to our other defences, the NHS and the carers who staff the care homes and social medicine. For a start off let's fund both adequately, let them manage themselves and pay the staff a proper wage. Attending to those matters will do just as much good as a vaccine in terms of affecting people's lives.

[plaques]

I perhaps painted rather a negative picture about the overall risk but in my opinion getting the vaccine is still the best option for reducing your personal risk. The only downside of a 75% efficient vaccine is that a ¼ of the take up are at risk and could still catch the virus, a form of Wuhan roulette. It would be nice if a cheap and cheerful test was available to see whether you had developed a required level of immunity.

[Stanley]

I would not change my defensive routine at all Ken. Just regard the vaccine as a possible reinforcement of my defences. No vaccine is 100% effective.

[Tizer]

Don't all rush at once. Those standing in the queue will hear exclamations of `Ow much?!' ...
`Boots to offer 12-minute Covid nasal swab test' LINK
`A Covid test that can provide a result in 12 minutes will be made available at high street pharmacy Boots. The nasal swab test, which will cost £120, will be available in more than 50 stores across the UK to anyone who is not showing symptoms. The test, and the device needed to process it, have been approved by authorities in Europe and the US. In trials on more than 500 patients it accurately detected the virus in more than 97% of cases.

[Stanley]

My considered verdict.... Include me out!
Is it my imagination or is the track and trace system gradually getting worse and worse?

[plaques]

There could be circumstances where proof of a clean bill of health may offset a longer term of enforced quarantine.
The track and trace system is only viable for relatively small numbers eg: when R is somewhere round 0.5 or less. Once the numbers rise into their thousands the number of possible contacts could be a factor of 5 to 10 greater swamping the system. Then there is the nonsense that isolation is voluntary and can be safely ignored as for as follow up is concerned. Good value for £3.2 Billion? But it seemed a good idea didn't it? But when we get the vaccine by Christmas... latest news the virus looks like its mutated, OH bugger...

[PanBiker]

But when we get the vaccine by Christmas... latest news the virus looks like its mutated, OH bugger...

Those in the know have also found out that having the virus does not give sustained antibody protection. Like flu regime then, annual, (with a bit of luck) best guess yearly vaccine for the most common strains at the time.

[Tizer]

... latest news the virus looks like its mutated, OH bugger...

But viruses constantly mutate. Covid-19 has been doing that since it managed to jump from animal to human. Most mutations are deleterious for the virus. You just have to hope there isn't one that is significantly successful enough to be a faster spreader or has a higher fatality rate. It's very rare for a virus to become both. It's not in the virus's interest to damage the host too much or to kill - that would reduce its ability to spread. The ideal situation from the virus's point of view is for it to be able to reproduce and spread as much as possible and the best way to do that would be by causing no ill effects in the host. But our bodies want to be rid of it and it's our response that makes us feel ill or even kills us.

Those in the know have also found out that having the virus does not give sustained antibody protection. Like flu regime then, annual, (with a bit of luck) best guess yearly vaccine for the most common strains at the time.

We have other defences besides antibodies. Also, the research results need further interpretation - the study hasn't looked for decline in antibodies in individuals, they studied it on a population basis. They found fewer people with antibodies later in the study. There are other possible reasons for that.

Here's some good news...
`Oxford coronavirus vaccine shows ‘strong immune response’ in the elderly' Metro
`Scientists say the Oxford vaccine appears to create a ‘strong’ immune response in elderly participants, amid cautious hopes that the candidate could be rolled out in the coming months. Experts have warned that there is still a long way to go before the vaccine is cleared for use, but information from an earlier stage of the Oxford University and AstraZeneca vaccine candidate trial also suggests ‘similar’ immune responses in younger and older adults.

`In a statement, Oxford University explained: ‘Professor (Andrew) Pollard discussed the early findings of the Phase II safety and immunogenicity trial of the ChAdOx1 nCov-2019 Oxford coronavirus vaccine at a research conference. ‘These early results covering trial volunteers from the UK in the 56-69 and 70+ age groups have been submitted to a peer-review journal, and we hope to see their publication in the coming weeks. ‘Our ongoing trials will provide further data, but this marks a key milestone and reassures us that the vaccine is safe for use and induces strong immune responses in both parts of the immune system in all adult groups.’'

[Tripps]

We have other defences besides antibodies. Also, the research results need further interpretation - the study hasn't looked for decline in antibodies in individuals, they studied it on a population basis. They found fewer people with antibodies later in the study. There are other possible reasons for that.

My thoughts exactly on hearing the announcement (press release) of this news. Also it's from the same stable that at the start forecast 250,000 deaths. I'll listen more when they get a large cohort of infected people and follow them for a while. I don't think they'll have long to wait.

[plaques]

But viruses constantly mutate. Covid-19 has been doing that since it managed to jump from animal to human. Most mutations are deleterious for the virus. You just have to hope there isn't one that is significantly successful enough to be a faster spreader or has a higher fatality rate. It's very rare for a virus to become both. It's not in the virus's interest to damage the host too much or to kill - that would reduce its ability to spread. The ideal situation from the virus's point of view is for it to be able to reproduce and spread as much as possible and the best way to do that would be by causing no ill effects in the host. But our bodies want to be rid of it and it's our response that makes us feel ill or even kills us.

I understand what you are saying. The Ebola virus is highly infectious and a killer. Left in small tribal communities in isolated villages it soon terminates itself but in high density cities its a real killer and difficult to control. Taken that the covid-19 virus could mutate in either direction, stronger or weaker, then because of the way our civilizations have developed in cities it could be years before the more killer virus evolves itself away. Hopefully the vaccine will be effective against these mutations albeit to a lesser degree than the current strain but enough to cheat death.

[Tizer]

It's useful to remember that any of the many influenza virus strains, and other viruses such as `ordinary' coronaviruses and even the common cold, could mutate at any time and become Tyrannosaurus rex of the virus world - but they haven't. It's just not in their best interest for a parasite to wipe out a host species (that's the first thing they teach you in parasitology!). Evolutionary pressure drives them to become `top virus' but they don't do that by killing off or putting out of action the host species. You'll be able to sleep better if you keep that in mind!

[Sue]

Also the reason this has been so devastating is that it was completely unknown to our immune system , now it is not completely unknown. We had no immunity in the population at all. When we are constantly exposed to a pathogen like a virus each exposure serves to activate the immune system ie keep it ready for a response. These doses may be very low, inadequate to make some one ill but enough to keep the immune system working. That is the reason for more than one vaccination that children have in a vaccination programme.

First dose gives a response, the primary response. This activates the immunoresponse but is not adequate to combat an infection. The second dose causes a huge secondary response, subsequent frequent exposure to low doses keeps boosting the immune response back to its higher level . If the disease organism is not very common then exposure is less frequent and the immune response gets weaker as it is not continually activated . Hence we have to have tetanus vaccinations repeated every ten years. Unless you deal with horse manure often the frequency of exposure to pathogen is slight so these boosts do not occur.

So if covid has stimulated an immune response in an individual then subsequent exposure what ever the dose theoretically should reactivate their immune system, hopefully to prevent or reduce the severity of the illness

I hope I remembered all of that correctly

[Big Kev]

Also the reason this has been so devastating is that it was completely unknown to our immune system , now it is not completely unknown. We had no immunity in the population at all. When we are constantly exposed to a pathogen like a virus each exposure serves to activate the immune system ie keep it ready for a response. These doses may be very low, inadequate to make some one ill but enough to keep the immune system working. That is the reason for more than one vaccination that children have in a vaccination programme.

First dose gives a response, the primary response. This activates the immunoresponse but is not adequate to combat an infection. The second dose causes a huge secondary response, subsequent frequent exposure to low doses keeps boosting the immune response back to its higher level . If the disease organism is not very common then exposure is less frequent and the immune response gets weaker as it is not continually activated . Hence we have to have tetanus vaccinations repeated every ten years. Unless you deal with horse manure often the frequency of exposure to pathogen is slight so these boosts do not occur.

So if covid has stimulated an immune response in an individual then subsequent exposure what ever the dose theoretically should reactivate their immune system, hopefully to prevent or reduce the severity of the illness

I hope I remembered all of that correctly

Makes sense to my simple brain

[Stanley]

Sue, Tetanus. I have always kept my tetanus jabs current and the last time I asked I was told that at my age and after so many jabs I had as much immunity as I could have even with a top up jab. That surprised me but I hope they are right....

[Tizer]

Sue, thanks for all that, your input is much appreciated, you're the one with the most microbiological expertise and you're most needed during this pandemic!

Naughty people in Scotland. I think this sort of behaviour is probably another aspect of the selfishness which seems to have spread like a virus in recent years...
`Covid in Scotland: Police break up hundreds of parties every week' LINK

[Tripps]

Has anyone else noticed that the name of this pandemic seems to have changed in a lot of the media from Covid 19 to the more generic Coronavirus? Headlines today? Sky Manchester Evening News etc.

Early days and not much evidence, but I think it's happening. I've no idea why.

[Big Kev]

Naughty people in Scotland. I think this sort of behaviour is probably another aspect of the selfishness which seems to have spread like a virus in recent years...
`Covid in Scotland: Police break up hundreds of parties every week' LINK

Not just in Scotland, supposedly intelligent Oxford students are still going out despite testing positive, if they can't follow simple instructions...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-o ... e-54716341

[Sue]

Sue, thanks for all that, your input is much appreciated, you're the one with the most microbiological expertise and you're most needed during this pandemic!

Naughty people in Scotland. I think this sort of behaviour is probably another aspect of the selfishness which seems to have spread like a virus in recent years...
`Covid in Scotland: Police break up hundreds of parties every week' LINK

Thank you Tiz but of course its a long time since I taught it and progress often changes current knowledge, never more so than this pandemic, but thats the way I see it.

[Tizer]

I received my covid-19 antibody test kit from the Imperial/NHS REACT study, used it this morning and submitted my result. As I expected, it was a negative result, i.e. no antibodies to covid-19 detected. The accompanying literature was very clear and the test simple, a `pin prick' with a little metal lancet, drop of blood onto test strip, wait 10 minutes and read the result. You don't send the strip back but send them a photo of it instead. Then you fill in a detailed online questionnaire and also tell them the result there. All very easy! Here are photos of the kit etc....

The first photo shows the booklets and the box containing the kit, next the kit contents and then the items laid out. Then the test strip before and after, and finally the possible results. The blue band before use must change to red after use, otherwise the strip hasn't worked and the result is invalid. The yellow and orange widgets are two lancets. The little bottle with the blue cap is buffer solution which `develops' the strip.

[Sue]

https://www.immune.org.nz/immunisation/ ... accination

[Stanley]

The covid19 news this morning is universally dire. I'll leave you to soak it in at your own speed. It seems to me that the scientists are wanting national measures. As I have said before, I think the reason No. 10 is avoiding this is that under their agreement with Parliament there would have to be a debate and Johnson is desperate to avoid this.
From the sound of it he is running out of options.

[plaques]

Scientists are now getting a little concerned that the second wave of the covid-10 virus may be a mutation of the first wave. I know Tizer has tried to calm the worries down in that mutations are normally less severe as part of the long term evolution cycle to ensure survival. Perhaps this piece in the Times Variant Virus. (or see Google news) is just another 'what if' story to keep people on their toes and compete against the Express's comets bringing the world to an end. I'm not inclined to do a Trump and rubbish the possibility entirely but it could be one of the Cassandra prophecies that we ignore at our peril.