Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Tizer]

More trouble at mill. Boris and his mates are now accused of using `old data' to make their decision for a new lockdown. Scientists had provided up-to-date data but the politicians used the old information instead.

I was thinking about Nightingale 'Hospitals' which were started then stopped without being used. I think the government copied the Chinese - who built them from scratch, with a two thousand bed hospital completed in about a week. (I exaggerate - but not by much). Can they really be hospitals' in the full sense of the word or are they just 'sheds with beds? They had no dedicated staff. Did they have kitchens laundries, mortuaries, offices, x-ray department etc etc. . .Could they actually be used as real hospitals. I doubt it.

This was all I could find. all the news seemed to be just about beds! `Coronavirus: How NHS Nightingale was built in just nine days' LINK

[Tripps]

I heard Anthony Charles Linton Blair this morning on Radio 4. I was half asleep, but he seemed to make sense. His attitude was pro-active rather than re-active. Something that is needed at the moment. I think they call it leadership. I detected no party politics in what he said which is good.

Tony Blair

"Don't make perfect the enemy of the good"

[plaques]

Boris and his cohorts seem incapable of any kind of forward planning that they haven't invented. The track and trace may have saved lives had it had been fully in operation immediately after the first lockdown, but it wasn't and to make sure it never will be they promoted an expert in failures to run it. From there on it was all downhill. 50% off meals only served to give the impression that it was safe to go out there where in spite of restaurateurs doing their best to meet standards it was still a risk. Then the get back to city offices and open up business that depend on quantity footfall gave another impression that all was well and carry on as normal. Boris pleads that he has to enforce a second lockdown to stop hospitals being swamped with covid patients. Too late is the cry.

A hospital in Blackburn already has more Covid patients now than at the peak of the pandemic in April, as one doctor says he is more concerned about running out of oxygen than space.
Currently, the Royal Blackburn Hospital is at 25% of its capacity with 240 Covid-19 patients.
This is a stark contrast to April - at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic - where the hospital had 140 patients.
A critical care consultant at Royal Blackburn Hospital told ITV News of the pressures his team and hospital are facing and how critical it is that the local infections do not significantly increase.

[Tripps]

Did you hear the Matron say words to the effect that there were less 'underlying conditions' and 'last week they were walking up Pendle Hill, and now they are here. The reporter noted that the spread was a lot nearer to 50-50 male- female than last time, when males were in the majority.

[Stanley]

Why do I think that calling anything 'Nightingale' is an attempt to boost it. The hospitals had beds but no nurses the central testing labs will be short of technicians. Keep an eye open for 'Nightingale Undertakers'.
(David, who's 'Matron'?)

[Tizer]

This looks like a good idea although I'd prefer it if they told us the success rate in false positives and false negatives...
`Algorithm spots 'Covid cough' inaudible to humans' LINK
`An algorithm developed in the US has correctly identified people with Covid-19 only by the sound of their coughs. In tests, it achieved a 98.5% success rate among people who had received an official positive coronavirus test result, rising to 100% in those who had no other symptoms. The researchers would need regulatory approval to develop it into an app. They said the crucial difference in the sound of an asymptomatic-Covid-patient cough could not be heard by human ears..'.

I notice Professor John Bell on Today this morning criticised Tony Blair's exhortation yesterday to go ahead with vaccines even if they were only 40% effective. Bell rightly pointed out that's the way to lose people's confidence in vaccines. I'd add that it's also dangerous because you'd end up with a lot of people thinking they're immune when they aren't and then going out and becoming super-spreaders. But Blair did say some other things that were sensible and showed more understanding than most of our present politicians!

[Tripps]

(David, who's 'Matron'?)

She was from the Intensive care unit at the Royal Blackburn. That's what ITV described her as. I think it was a caption. I was surprised to see it, but assumed they were being accurate, and I'd not been keeping up. No change there.

Yes that seems to be it - they still exist. Google says-

Matron:
Matrons are in charge of a group of wards and take full responsibility for ensuring excellent patient experience and safety.

[Tizer]

Being Blackburn born and bred I'm pleased to know they still have a Matron at the hospital!

[Stanley]

Thanks David and yes I remember the rank being brought back after being dropped because it 'sounded too authoritarian' . That's what I want when I am poorly, someone who knows what the are doing and is in charge!
I didn't hear Blair but I heard Professor Bell Peter and what he said seemed to make sense. One thing is certain, on matters like the efficacy of vaccines I'll take the Professor over the politician any day of the week!
I still don't understand why, when everyone agrees the incidence of the virus is growing rapidly, we are all stood round talking about what to do about it!

[plaques]

I may be a little behind the curve but the definitions but follows a typical military structure something like this.
For nursing staff only.
!) Matron. Top position of ALL the wards and ALL the nurses in the hospital.
2)Ward Managers, Have a defined number of wards under their supervision along with the nurses in them.
3 Ward Sisters. In charge of a particular ward and the nurses in it.

I still don't understand why, when everyone agrees the incidence of the virus is growing rapidly, we are all stood round talking about what to do about it!
Not everyone agrees with the numbers and charts being put forward as the reason for the lockdown. The 'reasonable worst case scenario' is being heavily questioned. Nobody outside the No 10 bubble seems to know where the numbers come from and how they are being assembled to make their case. We now hear that the old tiering system may be restructured depending on future results. Someone must have an idea what elements go into making a tier but nobody is saying anything. Mushroom management strikes again.

Later.
Have a read at this.Track and Trace

[Tizer]

At about 8.25 this morning on Today the CEO of the NHS was interviewed. He answered all the questions and provided much more information too. Details about the numbers of beds and patients, explanations of current situations, reasons for actions. Wonderful! Lucid, plain English, no smoke-screening, no evasion. They should wheel him out more often and the public would have greater confidence, much more than they'll ever have for the current government ministers.

[Big Kev]

Police Chiefs, in the North West, have said they are not going to be so lenient in those who don't think the new lockdown restrictions apply to them. Good, let's hope the 'deniers' take notice this time...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-54807399

[Whyperion]

This looks like a good idea although I'd prefer it if they told us the success rate in false positives and false negatives...
`Algorithm spots 'Covid cough' inaudible to humans' LINK
`An algorithm developed in the US has correctly identified people with Covid-19 only by the sound of their coughs. In tests, it achieved a 98.5% success rate among people who had received an official positive coronavirus test result, rising to 100% in those who had no other symptoms. The researchers would need regulatory approval to develop it into an app. They said the crucial difference in the sound of an asymptomatic-Covid-patient cough could not be heard by human ears..'.

I notice Professor John Bell on Today this morning criticised Tony Blair's exhortation yesterday to go ahead with vaccines even if they were only 40% effective. Bell rightly pointed out that's the way to lose people's confidence in vaccines. I'd add that it's also dangerous because you'd end up with a lot of people thinking they're immune when they aren't and then going out and becoming super-spreaders. But Blair did say some other things that were sensible and showed more understanding than most of our present politicians!

60percent ineffective vaccine might be ok to protect NHS workers and Care home ones in their environment not perfect but cutting a risk in half is helpful.
Meanwhile I cannot see how a targeting of a lung irritation in much the same places as other diseases can produce a significantly difference in cough in duration, volume, frequency wave or other compared to other similar viruses ( i think we know the likes of smokers coughs/ TB ones as examples, but is the dry cough one noticeably different to the side-effect one one gets with blood pressure medications that affect ace-2 receptors.

[plaques]

Meanwhile I cannot see how a targeting of a lung irritation in much the same places as other diseases can produce a significantly difference in cough in duration, volume, frequency wave or other compared to other similar viruses ( i think we know the likes of smokers coughs/ TB ones as examples, but is the dry cough one noticeably different to the side-effect one one gets with blood pressure medications that affect ace-2 receptors.

A good frequency analysis programme should take you from say 1 cycle per second to over 25,000 cycles a second in one sweep. This is both below and above the normal audio range of humans. How you compared the contents of these grunts and wheezes against a 'normal' cough is their big breakthrough. I doubt if it could be done on a Raspberry Pie using Python Language.

[Stanley]

I heard the CEO of the NHS as well Peter and thought he was worth whatever they are paying him.
As for doubts about numbers... Even more reason then for adopting worst case analysis.

[Tizer]

I've made these notes from a BBC report this morning...
While the US election rumbles on there were 100,000 new cases of coronavirus yesterday and 1,100 deaths from the virus. More than 50,000 people across the US are currently in hospital with coronavirus - an increase of about 64% from early October. With almost 9.5 million total coronavirus infections and more than 233,000 deaths, the US has both the highest number of cases and the highest total death toll in the world.

This is a quote from the BBC page: `In an interview with the Washington Post newspaper on Friday, commenting on the US nearing 100,00 cases, the country's top infectious diseases expert Anthony Fauci said: "We're in for a whole lot of hurt." He added that the US "could not possibly be positioned more poorly", with colder weather driving people indoors. In response, White House spokesman Judd Deere said the comments were "unacceptable and breaking with all norms". BBC

[plaques]

I still don't understand why, when everyone agrees the incidence of the virus is growing rapidly, we are all stood round talking about what to do about it!
Not everyone agrees with the numbers and charts being put forward as the reason for the lockdown. The 'reasonable worst case scenario' is being heavily questioned.

It now turns out that Boris has been telling porkies or he is even more badly informed than we could possibly imagine.
Death Rates
The projection was made weeks ago and had forecast there would be 1,000 deaths a day by the end of October when the average was actually four times less than that - a fact that was known at the time of Saturday's TV briefing.

Why did he take on this subterfuge. Was it to take the spot light away from all the blunders of the tiering system, inadequate payments, Track and Trace, get back to the cities or is his overestimates the reason why he now appears confident that the numbers will come down because they are already down? If the breweries are still open after this debacle I doubt if he will be asked to organize the proverbial.

[Big Kev]

Just a thought.

If Boris is confident of numbers dropping, and that the lockdown will end on December 2nd, why have they extended the furlough scheme until the end of March 2021?

Should we expect an easing of restrictions for Christmas and then back into a lockdown in January?

[Stanley]

MD in Private Eye is worth reading this week on the subject of Track and Trace. Well over £10billion which would have done amazing things if given to the Local Councils. Why allow dogma to get in the way of common sense?

[plaques]

If Boris is confident of numbers dropping, and that the lockdown will end on December 2nd, why have they extended the furlough scheme until the end of March 2021?

The furlough payments are only to those where the government closes the business down. He can avoid payment if he leaves them open but restricts their activity, (I think). By declaring furlough open to March it may be intended to put some confidence back into the workforce think that they will be covered should things turn sour. Meanwhile the Bank of England has declared another £150 Billion of easing to help the economy. Their judgement is 4 million unemployed and 11% drop in GDP and that's if we get a Brexit trade deal. The outlook get worse if we leave without a deal. I'm not sure if part of the £150Billion is hypothecated towards furlough it which case it may never be spent.

[Tizer]

Talking of Track and Trace...
`UK contact-tracing apps start to talk to each other' LINK

Here's something that should help people in India...
`Covid-19: How a 'warm vaccine' could help India tackle coronavirus' LINK

[Whyperion]

Just a thought.

If Boris is confident of numbers dropping, and that the lockdown will end on December 2nd, why have they extended the furlough scheme until the end of March 2021?

Should we expect an easing of restrictions for Christmas and then back into a lockdown in January?

Thats my thinking, Happy Christmas.

[Tizer]

We'll all have heard about the new problem in Denmark with covid passing from humans to farmed mink and possibly back to humans. It's serious because it may result in a mutated virus that would be resistant to the current vaccines being developed. Mink have been infected in other countries too. Here's some background...

`What's the science behind mink and coronavirus?' MINK LINK

Mink farming is banned in the UK, primarily because if they get free they are fierce and kill everything else in the streams and rivers. However they are still out there in the wild in large numbers. Work is being done to eradicate them but they breed fast. There are mink in the Somerset Levels but they get everywhere - there are lots in canals and I've seen a report that they are even in the Manchester Ship Canal!
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There's a story on the BBC News web site by a BBC correspondent in her early 40s who was fit and healthy before she got covid-19 and is still suffering after 7 months. Her eldest daughter (7) had fever and tiredness then recovered; the younger one had one day of fever and recovered. Her husband had no symptoms. It's remarkable how the virus affects people differently. It also shows how bad it can be for someone well under the `vulnerable' age range. She wasn't taken to hospital but had very severe pain and distress in the early stages and now has `long covid'. I've put a link here to the article but I warn you it's long and depressing! LINK
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I've just had a chat with my young relative who's doing her MSc at Bath Uni and who was in a group that caught covid and had to isolate. She had some feverish cold symptoms and lost her sense of taste and smell to some extent but recovered quickly and is in full health again. She notices a single lingering effect - she used to love bananas but now they taste awful and she doesn't eat them!

[Stanley]

Haven't seen any evidence personally of late but there used to be lots of Mink in the banks of the canal in Barlick. One colony at Greenberfield and another one near the marina.
I had mail from my friend Angela this morning. her daughter Tracey has been agitating on behalf of her father Alan who is so badly affected by dementia that he hardly opens his eyes these days. Working with the Altzheimers Society she has got an article published in the Times. The article itself is behind a firewall but here's part of the text that gives the flavour.

Alan Broadhurst was a bomb disposal diver for the Royal Navy. At 80, his dementia is now so advanced he lies in his care home in Portsmouth, barely able to open his eyes.
Angela, his wife of 56 years, has been allowed to spend only five hours with him over the past eight months. His daughter, Tracey, has managed to hold his hand once (through PPE).
“We’ve been told we can’t be with him until the end of life so the only time I’m going to be able to cuddle my dad again is when he is dying,” Tracey, 55, an NHS worker, said. “It’s just so cruel. Sometimes I have to numb myself because I could cry most days over it.”
On his 80th birthday in June, they were forbidden from even socially distancing together in the garden — “they said they would have to sanitise the seats afterwards so there was no point” — so Tracey and her mother passed presents to staff over the fence. “We couldn’t even give him a kiss,” she said. “I know we’re trying to protect the most vulnerable, but at what cost? Dad will die of the dementia before he dies of Covid. “Mum and I are beside ourselves. One of the nurses said that one consolation is that he doesn’t know if you’re there or not but we know. I don’t want him thinking we’ve abandoned him. The guilt is too awful for words. It has just been heartbreaking.”

Key worker status should be given to at least one relative for the sake of residents’ wellbeing, Mr Broadhurst’s daughter said. “My mum lives in a retirement flat and has a little dog that she walks twice a day. That’s all she does. She is much less risk to Dad than the carers who have got to have a life, and who might have children at school. “My poor mum has been in tears. For Dad to end his life without us around is just too awful for words.”



Alan in 1991. When he left the Navy Alan went into saturation diving in the North Sea and passed the time in the compression chamber reading cookery books. Later he and Angela took over the Old Library at Arisaig and that's where I met him. Its so awful to hear of the state he has been reduced to now and the torture of the relatives is medieval. I know the dangers from infection but there must be some sort of balance mustn't there?

[Tizer]

I think I've heard that lady on the radio, or it was someone with a very similar story. It's a very difficult situation. I can see the benefits of allowing someone into the home but then it could infect all the other people living there.

I mentioned above about my young relative at Bath University doing an MSc but I think I forgot to finish the story. It's known that she and her friends caught the virus from a certain student who was asymptomatic. He didn't know he was carrying the virus and felt as normal. He was only with the group for about 5 minutes but they all caught it from him and had the symptoms of covid three days later. There was no physical contact, they simply all shared the same `air space' for that brief time. She's only 21 and didn't suffer too badly.