Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

Post by Big Kev »

Just an observation, looking at the ONS website at the number of LFTs being submitted. In October 2020 the daily number of tests submitted was around 250, 000 a day, October 2021 is over 1,000,000 a day. I understand that there's a steady increase in positive results but could the 2020 results be 4 times the 2021 results?
Presuming I've understood the data correctly, in October 2020 the daily number of positive results was around 35,000 a day. Using my simplistic logic, if there were 1,000,000 tests submitted a day in October 2020 (rather than 250,000) could the positive results have been nearer 140,000 a day a year ago?



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

Post by Stanley »

Kev, statistics are notorious for that very reason. You never know if you are being tricked into comparing apples with pears.
My verdict is that there are far too many infections for comfort!
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Big Kev wrote: 21 Oct 2021, 19:51 Just an observation, looking at the ONS website at the number of LFTs being submitted. In October 2020 the daily number of tests submitted was around 250, 000 a day, October 2021 is over 1,000,000 a day. I understand that there's a steady increase in positive results but could the 2020 results be 4 times the 2021 results?
Presuming I've understood the data correctly, in October 2020 the daily number of positive results was around 35,000 a day. Using my simplistic logic, if there were 1,000,000 tests submitted a day in October 2020 (rather than 250,000) could the positive results have been nearer 140,000 a day a year ago?



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Exactly, and the statistics fail to say how many are asymptomatic. The figures that matter now are hospital admissions and deaths. The case numbers are meaningless and can certainly not be compared with other countries who do not do testing in the same way. The highest numbers are in school children and we have known from the start many are asymptomatic . Yet they test twice a week.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Sue wrote: 22 Oct 2021, 07:07
Big Kev wrote: 21 Oct 2021, 19:51 Just an observation, looking at the ONS website at the number of LFTs being submitted. In October 2020 the daily number of tests submitted was around 250, 000 a day, October 2021 is over 1,000,000 a day. I understand that there's a steady increase in positive results but could the 2020 results be 4 times the 2021 results?
Presuming I've understood the data correctly, in October 2020 the daily number of positive results was around 35,000 a day. Using my simplistic logic, if there were 1,000,000 tests submitted a day in October 2020 (rather than 250,000) could the positive results have been nearer 140,000 a day a year ago?



https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
Exactly, and the statistics fail to say how many are asymptomatic. The figures that matter now are hospital admissions and deaths. The case numbers are meaningless and can certainly not be compared with other countries who do not do testing in the same way. The highest numbers are in school children and we have known from the start many are asymptomatic . Yet they test twice a week.
A quick look at the stats and hospital admissions don't look to be much different to October 2020, around 6 per 100,000 in the UK.
Daily deaths within 28 days of a positive test look to be down on last year, be interesting to see how things develop over the next few weeks.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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I hope you've all listened to yesterday's episode of Inside Science? Inside Science
The first part of it is about covid infection rates and deaths then it goes on to the Wolverhampton lab fiasco...
As many as 43,000 PCR tests for people living in and around the South West of England could have been wrongly returned as negative recently, thanks to a seemingly unknown error, or errors, at a laboratory near Wolverhampton. For an extraordinarily long time the mistakes went undetected, and every day many hundreds of people who really had Covid, were told they hadn't. To discuss the numbers and difficulty in calculating the full tragic consequences of the events, Marnie Chesterton speaks to Dr Deepti Gordasani of Queen Mary, University of London, and Dr Kit Yates, of Bath University. How many people may have died as a result of this? BBC Inside Science's back-of-the-envelope suggests 500-1000 preventable deaths, and counting.
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After the difficulties I mentioned above when trying to book a booster jab I managed to find a slot in about 10 days time at Minehead which is no closer than all the other sites but it's a much nicer and quieter route to drive at this time of the year. Then today, out of curiosity, another site showed up about a mile from home so I cancelled the first one and booked near home in for next Tuesday! I think other people are doing this too because the available sites keep changing, so people naturally go for a better location if it comes up.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Sue wrote: 22 Oct 2021, 07:07 The case numbers are meaningless and can certainly not be compared with other countries who do not do testing in the same way.
Agreed - but all deaths begin with a 'case' so perhaps better to investigate the differences between the measurement methods, since it's the headline number of 'cases' that seems to be driving public opinion and thus policy. It's hard to ignore the fact that Italy and France yesterday were said to have had less than one eighth of the number of case we had. (52,000 v 6,000) . Possibly down to different counting methods, but we didn't query the figures when we were 'beating' them.

The Government are doing all they can to avoid any sort of Plan B, especially one which involves social distancing. The football season is in full swing. Can you imagine imposing distancing restrictions on the crowds again? The economy will not stand another lockdown, and 'immunity' seems to be waning faster than was hoped for, so the it's back to pressing for vaccination boosters starting with the vulnerable groups.

There's a budget next week. I doubt Mr Sunak has any thoughts of another furlough scheme. :smile:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Tripps wrote: 22 Oct 2021, 11:21 Agreed - but all deaths begin with a 'case' so perhaps better to investigate the differences between the measurement methods, since it's the headline number of 'cases' that seems to be driving public opinion and thus policy.
And it's the media pushing the headlines. We all know the virus is still out there but the media need to deal with all the facts, not just cherry picking the most sensational headlines. The majority of 'sensible' people are wearing face coverings and continuing with social distancing regardless of whether it's a legal requirement or not.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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" I doubt Mr Sunak has any thoughts of another furlough scheme."
I think you're right there David. Despite all his fine words Mr Sunak is hell bent on one thing, squeezing the maximum amount out of UK PLC as quickly as possible. Too dangerous to try to do it with the upper echelons, that would have repercussions. So he will concentrate on the usual suspects the poor and the weak. That will only cost misery and death and that won't be in 11 Downing Street or the Treasury!
Question is, can they get away with these dodgy strategies on everything from public services, through the essential industries and utilities to the health service and education. All of these are under funded and have seen a trail of broken promises. In the end it can only lead to disaster but in the short term, i.e. the next election, they think they have a chance of getting away with it.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Tripps wrote: 22 Oct 2021, 11:21 The Government are doing all they can to avoid any sort of Plan B, especially one which involves social distancing.
Sorry to quote myself, but I got to thinking that of they did take measures reagarding social distancing - they'd probably have to cancel COP 26.

That in my opinion would be a good idea for several reasons, but I can't see the First Lady Carrie going for it - so neither will Boris.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Sage evidence showed that Government advice to work from home would be the most effective measure, compared with mask wearing and the introduction of Covid passports.

That's me sorted then :good:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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The British Medical Association has said that its Time for plan B to be implemented, Not so says the Buffoon the numbers are within the parameters of what the predictions were. These parameters / predictions were set in July. We now have 50,000 cases per day and 180 deaths per day are presumably deemed acceptable because they were predicted. Its worth pointing out that in July the predictions for daily death varied from 450 to 1,000 with a 'best' case of round 125. predictions, so that's all right then carry on as predicted until the numbers hit 1,000 a day.

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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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The available evidence backs you up Ken. Basically our leaders haven't any clear plan beyond steady as she goes but unfortunately the virus has its own ideas and all the indications are that you are right, the acceleration in numbers is going to continue. That's why the NHS providers want action now, they can see where we are heading.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Get a booster vaccine to protect Christmas. the implication is that those who have already had the two recommended vaccines will benefit because of the 'Waning' effect. Will the booster stop you catching covid? ... No. Neither will it stop you transmitting covid. It should stop you being hospitalised and possibly dying of it. All this makes good sense and a booster is highly recommended.
Are boosters the answer to the current infection rates? No. because catching covid a second time doesn't count as a new infection so it doesn't count in the 'New' infection rates. Should we be moving to plan 'B'? The general opinion among the experts is yes and the sooner the better. The talk on the streets is that the government are poling public opinion. ie: will it affect our chances of winning a general election. Will plan 'B' be implemented. We will have to so if the Buffoon goes on holiday before we find out.
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plaques wrote: 24 Oct 2021, 09:03 should stop you being hospitalised and possibly dying of it. All this makes good sense and a booster is highly recommended.
I agree and that's the current basis of my decisions.


The new lady drafted in to get booster jabs going repeated this morning that the death rate in those that have flu and covid at the same time is more than double those with covid alone. I still don't see how she knows that. There has been no meaningful flu since Covid arrived, and so figures can't exist. She sounded as if she was speaking from the 'line to take' briefing notes.

Dr Nabarro a special representative for the WHO says that countries where people were wearing well fitting surgical masks have a lower infection rate. Sounds right - but where would this supply of masks come from. None of the masks I have, or see in the shop qualify as such.First time round this was not made policy as the Government were worried it would create a shortage of such masks for the NHS.

Dr Nabarro's one line advice was "don't breathe other peoples air" . I agree and try not to. Hard to see how the people going to football matches, race meetings, and especially night clubs can avoid doing so.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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I agree with both of you and note that the latest announcement re. Plan 'B' is that "There are no immediate plans to introduce it". That signals to me that Plan B is inevitable.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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I read an article this morning (Guardian I think) that modelling showed the potential for a rapid drop in infection rates during November. As the country seems to be basing everything on infection rates rather than hospital admission and deaths I did a bit of reading on the ONS website.
Two doses of either Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca provided a similar level of protection as having had a previous natural infection of coronavirus (COVID-19), while the Delta variant was dominant in the UK.
A study assessed the risk of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) by comparing people that had had one or two doses of the vaccines with unvaccinated people. It also assessed the effectiveness of vaccines against the main variant in the UK at that time.
Vaccination reduced the risk of testing positive, both when the Alpha variant was dominant in the UK (1 December 2020 to 16 May 2021) and when the Delta variant was dominant (17 May to 14 August 2021).
Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech reduced the risk of testing positive by 73% in the Delta period, compared with 80% in the Alpha period.
Two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca reduced the risk of testing positive by 62% in the Delta period, compared with 76% in the Alpha period.
Two vaccination doses were more effective than one dose at preventing symptomatic infection in both periods.
Against the Delta variant, two vaccine doses reduced the risk of symptomatic infection by 75%, compared with a 58% reduction in risk three weeks or more after having had one vaccine dose.


Taking into account the summary above and that the majority of reported infections are in children I think there may be some weight behind it. Could the infection rate drop as children build a natural immunity and the virus runs out of hosts to infect? It's half term this week so children won't be mixing in such large numbers for a while which may slow the rate down a bit too (but could rise again once they return to the classroom).

I'm optimistic that booster jabs and natural infection will be the way out (herd immunity). I can see hospital admissions and deaths starting to drop soon. That's just my opinion but it makes sense to me.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Your opinion makes sense and is as good as anybody else's estimate.... (Notice I didn't say guess.)
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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I go for my booster jab tomorrow. I had AZ vaccine for the earlier two jabs. This time it will be BioNtech or Moderna but I don't know which - I think they keep it secret to heighten the excitement! :smile:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Stanley wrote: 25 Oct 2021, 08:10 Your opinion makes sense and is as good as anybody else's estimate.... (Notice I didn't say guess.)
Similar is being discussed on Jeremy Vine's radio show.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Tizer wrote: 25 Oct 2021, 09:43 BioNtech or Moderna
Me too. Have they abandoned the Astrazenica? It's nearly impossible to keep up with what's going on. :smile:
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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This bit of text below is copied from the BHF web site: BHF
Which booster jab will I get, and why might it be different to my first two doses?
You are likely to be offered a dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine as a booster dose. Evidence shows that these mRNA vaccines work best as boosters, even if you received a different vaccine for your first two doses. The JCVI reviewed data from several different vaccine combinations before making this recommendation.
You might be offered the AstraZeneca vaccine as a booster dose if you can’t have Pfizer or Moderna. The AstraZeneca vaccine has only been approved as a booster for use in people who had it as their first and second vaccine. 
If you receive Moderna as a booster, a half dose of the vaccine may be used, as this has been shown to be very effective.
The Pfizer, Moderna and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines have all been approved for use as booster jabs by the UK medicines regulator, the MHRA.
More research is currently under way to look at other options for use as Covid-19 booster vaccines.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Patiently awaiting my booster invite, it's not been 6 months and one week yet.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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We are the same Kev. I reckon ours should be the first or second week of November.
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Re: Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

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Big Kev wrote: 25 Oct 2021, 07:43 I read an article this morning (Guardian I think) that modelling showed the potential for a rapid drop in infection rates during November. As the country seems to be basing everything on infection rates rather than hospital admission and deaths I did a bit of reading on the ONS website.
Two doses of either Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca provided a similar level of protection as having had a previous natural infection of coronavirus (COVID-19), while the Delta variant was dominant in the UK.
A study assessed the risk of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) by comparing people that had had one or two doses of the vaccines with unvaccinated people. It also assessed the effectiveness of vaccines against the main variant in the UK at that time.
Vaccination reduced the risk of testing positive, both when the Alpha variant was dominant in the UK (1 December 2020 to 16 May 2021) and when the Delta variant was dominant (17 May to 14 August 2021).
Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech reduced the risk of testing positive by 73% in the Delta period, compared with 80% in the Alpha period.
Two doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca reduced the risk of testing positive by 62% in the Delta period, compared with 76% in the Alpha period.
Two vaccination doses were more effective than one dose at preventing symptomatic infection in both periods.
Against the Delta variant, two vaccine doses reduced the risk of symptomatic infection by 75%, compared with a 58% reduction in risk three weeks or more after having had one vaccine dose.


Taking into account the summary above and that the majority of reported infections are in children I think there may be some weight behind it. Could the infection rate drop as children build a natural immunity and the virus runs out of hosts to infect? It's half term this week so children won't be mixing in such large numbers for a while which may slow the rate down a bit too (but could rise again once they return to the classroom).

I'm optimistic that booster jabs and natural infection will be the way out (herd immunity). I can see hospital admissions and deaths starting to drop soon. That's just my opinion but it makes sense to me.
It was Professor John Edmunds who did the modelling, his credentials seem to show he knows what he's talking about. Unfortunately the Daily Express has picked up on it which will probably blow all credibility of the research out of the water ...
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I'm booked in next Monday and Col on Friday, both at the Well Pharmacy.
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