Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

Did any of you listen to Sarah Gilbert telling Jim Al-Khalili how they made a vaccine in The Life Scientific?
Fascinating and real information straight from the source. Not a lot of that about!

[Stanley]

Still on vaccines, see THIS BBC report on the latest Trumpism. He claims a mass vaccine will be 'available within weeks'. The Centre for Disease Control contradicts him. I leave it to you to make your own mind up.

[plaques]

The old political trick, Trump thinks he is wrong because he didn't see him say it. Prevention Director Robert Redfield said the vaccine wouldn't be ready for general use until possibly mid 2021. Trump side steps the statement by saying we are ready to distribute it immediately which isn't quite the same thing as having it available to be distributed. Its like our capability of doing something compared with actually doing it.

[PanBiker]

The log jam is in the testing labs not the testing centres. In my experience having been twice to separate venues they were both run in the main by students a lot of whom will now have gone back to uni.

My little bit of help,I have received my testing kit this morning for the Imperial College London research study. No problem in sending me a home testing kit, it's come on the first day of the stated delivery period.

[Big Kev]

Eldest grandson was tested at Nelson (the old fairground) yesterday around 11:30, results (negative I will add) came back this morning before 08:00

[Tizer]

I hope you all listened to More or Less on Radio 4 yesterday to get the true stories on the virus and testing situations.

[Tizer]

Trump v. CDC on vaccines...Trump will claim he's been successful in getting a vaccine to the US public as soon as the first person has been vaccinated (only another 350 million to go!). He'll probably get somebody vaccinated before the election deadline even if it means him chasing one of the White House staff with a syringe full of untested stuff.

I hope you all listened to More or Less on Radio 4 yesterday to get the true stories on the virus and testing situations.
Amid reports of problems with coronavirus testing across the UK, we interrogate the numbers on laboratory capacity. Does the government’s Operation Moonshot plan for mass testing make statistical sense? Has the UK been taking more refugees from outside the European Union than any EU country? We explore the connection between socio-economic status and Covid deaths. And we do the maths on a mascara brand’s bold claim about emboldening your eyelashes. LINK

[Tripps]

From The Spectator.
Quite a dramatic reduction, and surely some lives saved.
A welcome 'unintended consequence' of Covid 19 ?

Just 315 cases of influenza have been recorded in Australia in the peak winter months of July and August, compared with 137,000 cases in the same period in last year. Flu cases across the southern hemisphere have dropped during the pandemic due to lockdown and social distancing measures, as well as the prevalence of Covid-19.

[Stanley]

I think you may be on to something David. I have always put my freedom from common colds and infections down to the solitary life I lead.
Yes Tiz, I listened to More or Less. It should bed compulsory listening for all school children and politicians!

[PanBiker]

For the Imperial College study you have to book the courier service for return of your sample before doing the swab test. You book this online and it gives you a choice of pickup slots. You register it with an eight digit code from the labels. There was nothing for today but availability for Saturday, Sunday and into next week. Can't do tomorrow as we are out for some part of the day. They only give you a day and that runs from 8am to 6pm so I booked a slot on Monday. Practically this will mean I will have to get up early in order to have the test ready for a potential pickup at 8am. The courier will not wait if it's not ready. Once you have done the test labelled it and packed it correctly you have to store it in the fridge until it is picked up. I should get the results within a week.

[Big Kev]

New restrictions introduced for Pendle (and other areas). Apart from the pubs having to shut at 10pm there's no change.
https://www.lancashire.gov.uk/coronavir ... BgwdHYOKpM
From Tuesday 22 September:

Residents must not socialise with other people outside of their household or protective support bubble in private homes or gardens.
Hospitality for food and drink must operate table service only.
Leisure and entertainment venues, including restaurants, pubs and cinemas, must close between 10pm and 5am
Residents are also advised to follow the below guidelines to further reduce the spread of the virus:

Only use public transport for essential journeys – such as travelling to school or work. A face covering must be worn on public transport unless you are exempt.
Avoid attending amateur and semi-professional sporting events as spectators.
Residents are urged to only visit indoor locations such as restaurants and pubs places with other members of their household or support bubble.

[PanBiker]

I cannot understand why, when they introduce stricter measures they always give 4 or 5 days notice. Why not from midnight tonight? Or is it to give a weekends grace where some folk will binge at the pub, and flout any of the other rules in a bit of a frenzy? All the pub goers will do is start earlier and how many restaurants serve after 9pm anyway? I suppose the fast food and just eat joints will have to take the hit instead of serving until extra late as many do.

[Big Kev]

I cannot understand why, when they introduce stricter measures they always give 4 or 5 days notice. Why not from midnight tonight? Or is it to give a weekends grace where some folk will binge at the pub, and flout any of the other rules in a bit of a frenzy? All the pub goers will do is start earlier and how many restaurants serve after 9pm anyway? I suppose the fast food and just eat joints will have to take the hit instead of serving until extra late as many do.

I believe there's a delay, in the introduction of measures, to allow time to get them passed in law. I would imagine if they tried making them law first, and telling everyone once passed, there would be all sorts of Chinese Whispers (am I still allowed to say that?) and even more confusion.

[PanBiker]

I believe there's a delay, in the introduction of measures, to allow time to get them passed in law.

But it's Friday and Parliament will be shutting down for the weekend surely? I think part of the problem is that they have been to lenient with the measures from the word go. They should have passed an emergency power act from the start and come down heavy. Instead they ran it on a suggestion basis rather than a legal requirement, you would have thought they would have learnt in the last six months.

[plaques]

Designing a predictive model for the spread of covid-19 is not an easy task. Getting all the variables in place which could affect the accuracy is another layer of mathematical wizardry which very few people can understand least of all our Mat Hancock. Having said that experts can predict outcomes and what we are now seeing with virtually country wide lockdowns is that our government should have seen it coming. Even laymen knew that the virus was still out there and the more people you put into circulation the more people would catch it. It goes without saying that our Mat would have had these probabilities pointed out to him but with fingers crossed chose to push them back in the drawer and kept mum. Even now with numbers increasing by the day all we get is 'it will probably get worse' but without saying how much worse. The reason becomes obvious judging from other countries experience that the rise could easily triple the current numbers overloading our world beating track / trace / testing and putting the NHS back under severe pressure. Safe in their hands, I think not.

[Stanley]

I took the trouble to listen to Matt Hancock yesterday on R4. Did you notice that, when pressed on the ridiculous travel options still being offered by the web site, he said "Ignore the scare stories" adding that most got tests near home. This is patently untrue and ignores what is actually happening. (One appointment for mainland Britain was over the Irish Sea in Antrim.)
There was a head teacher on later saying that he had found it impossible to get clear guidance when one of his staff tested positive and he had no option but to call a governor's meeting and, in the interests of safety, close his school. Further he appeared to say that schools were a priority but this doesn't appear to be the case.

[Tizer]

...he said "Ignore the scare stories" adding that most got tests near home. This is patently untrue and ignores what is actually happening. (One appointment for mainland Britain was over the Irish Sea in Antrim.)

I saw a report that a lady in London couldn't get a test but when she changed her entry to give an Aberdeen post code she could have one!
There's a report in one of the papers this morning that a load of responses have been sent out without the QR code and there has been gridlock around affected test stations because people are arriving without the code. Chaos ensues!

[PanBiker]

If you go in your car they can use the registration to confirm your slot. Problematic on foot if you don't have the Q Code or email on your phone. Printing the email is another option but if folk aren't doing it or not getting the code there is no reference. Waiting to do my third test on Monday.

Before anyone asks, once because we were told we could, once because I had three contributing symptoms and the third one because I was selected for a survey.

[Big Kev]

I took the trouble to listen to Matt Hancock yesterday on R4. Did you notice that, when pressed on the ridiculous travel options still being offered by the web site, he said "Ignore the scare stories" adding that most got tests near home. This is patently untrue and ignores what is actually happening. (One appointment for mainland Britain was over the Irish Sea in Antrim.)
There

I'm not personally aware of anyone who has had to travel far, or wait for results. As I said, further up this thread, eldest grandson was tested Wednesday lunchtime and results were back Thursday morning. Barlick to Nelson is a very reasonable distance.
Are there any statistics for how many people were offered appointments at the other end of the country?

[PanBiker]

While the site was down I did my test for the Imperial College study. Up at 7am to get the self test done because the courier pickup slot only indicated the day from 8am to 6pm and you had to have it ready. Yodel texted me at 11am to say that pickup would be between 4pm and 6pm, he came at 5pm. I should get the results of that one within about a week.

[plaques]

Well that was interesting, turn your back for 2 minutes and Boris shuts OG down as part of his U-turn plan. Thanks Ian for putting him straight and getting us back on line where we can read a bit of common sense rather than all this it'll be over by Christmas nonsense.
OG gave a lot of coverage why it was important to get your Influenza vaccination, We were all told that being part of the older generation put us at greater risk from the covid-19 virus than younger people. That of course was par for the course where natural deterioration in health made you more vulnerable to the more serious complications. Just a matter of tidying up a bit faster one would say. But then comes a game changer, catching both covid and influenza at the same time ups the anti from a 27% death rate to 43%. The figures don't indicate the severity of the influenza component only that the outcome is often more terminal. Probably in a few weeks time someone in government will have a light bulb moment and realize that it may be prudent to vaccinate everyone against influenza and minimise the risk to both young and old alike.

[Tripps]

Just 315 cases of influenza have been recorded in Australia in the peak winter months of July and August, compared with 137,000 cases in the same period in last year. Flu cases across the southern hemisphere have dropped during the pandemic due to lockdown and social distancing measures, as well as the prevalence of Covid-19.

Good to be back discussing things again - and of course I'm sure Boris had a hand in the site outage. He's to blame for everything else. I wonder where the figures for double Flu / Covid 19 infections come from. First time I've heard mention of it.

I read yesterday that Flu jabs from Boots were having to be 'rationed' due to supply problems, to just the over 65's - Boots Flu jabs so it's a good thing, that if we copy Australia, there will be far fewer cases of Flu to deal with.

I'm afraid that nothing I have heard today has reduced my pessimism regarding the final outcome of this business. It would be good to know the Government's strategic objective here. An 'expert' said today that to aim for 'zero covid' was ridiculous, so what level of infection would be seen as success? I heard the strategy described today as 'to achieve the least damage to Boris Johnston's reputation and legacy', which sounds about right.

[PanBiker]

You might have a point there Ken, they could at least maybe reduce the age limit another ten years to 40. Sally and myself copped for the full blown event 20 years ago when we were in our mid 40's. I reckoned I was reasonably fit at the time, Sally was the other side of chemo by a few years but with a compromised immune system. It nearly saw both of us off. I wouldn't like to think what the effects of having both at the same time would be.

[Tripps]

I wonder where the figures for double Flu / Covid 19 infections come from.

Ah I missed that today Flu and Covid 19 together

Small sample and before the Covid had really hold, but it seems intuitive and credible - especially as Jonathan Van Tam is involved. Does that put the patients in the 'already suffering from pre-existing condition' category?

[Stanley]

As a higher risk category patient on age and pre-existing conditions I would have thought that I would be in the front of the queue. Unfortunately not, I haven't been offered a slot yet at the surgery. That's why I went to the pharmacy and got it as early as I could. (It's gone well, absolutely no side effects)
I like Ken's theory and like David, the latest 'uptick' as they say in restrictions makes no difference to my long term view. I always expected it to worsen over the winter and think Matt Hancock's prediction that some vaccinations could be given before Xmas is more whistling in the dark.
Covid is here for the long run, unlike this bunch of incompetent buggers. I shall be shielding for a long time yet! This is a classic time for 'worst case' analysis to rule our thinking.