Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[plaques]

Cummings in his marathon interview went to great lengths to explain that prior to the first lockdown the government had no contingency plans and were totally unprepared for any pandemic of this nature. Remembering at that time the prospects of a vaccine were a distant hope with no immediate sign that the cavalry would arrive in time to save the day. The choice being do we have a wave in 12 weeks or wait until winter when we can have two for the price of one. A new covid models showed that they didn't have 12 weeks the peak slope was already starting to overwhelm them. Fast forward to today there are better models and more up-to-date minute by minute head and body counts. Unfortunately the government are still less than transparent with their projections and leave it up to the media to sow utter confusion as to what may happen. I know some of the populous are stupid but the vast majority can understand risk when they see it and would accept more restraint to save lives.

[Stanley]

Quite right Ken and if my memory serves me right weren't they warned about the possibility of a pandemic by the WHO after the Sars enquiry but ignored it?

[Tizer]

Right. The WHO has been warning governments worldwide of this type of pandemic for two decades and especially after the earlier SARS and MERS incidents. The nearest we got to the UK preparing itself was exercise Cygnus in October 2016 but that was based on an influenza pandemic...
`UK pandemic preparedness ' LINK
`Annex A: about Exercise Cygnus' LINK

[Stanley]

Pressure mounts on the richer countries to send more vaccine to the poorest on the grounds it is the best way of protecting ourselves. Governments will pay lip service to this but none of them will send any meaningful amount until they have reached about 60% protection internally.

[Stanley]

See THIS. Covid cases rise and June 21st looks more and more unlikely if the government holds its nerve.

[PanBiker]

Not good news for Barlick today, 19 confirmed cases in Barnoldswick North (Coates) and 8 cases in Barnoldswick South (Craven), a further 3 in Earby which brings the West Craven total to 30. We haven't seen numbers like that for a long time. I hope the folk all enjoyed their trips to the pub and the garden barbecues. Oh an lets not forget the super spreader teenagers who gather in groups of 30 or more around town. Time for a lateral flow test I reckon.

[Cathy]

Disturbing news , not good at all

[Stanley]

"I hope the folk all enjoyed their trips to the pub and the garden barbecues. Oh an lets not forget the super spreader teenagers who gather in groups of 30 or more around town."
I have to agree with you Ian. I got a text this morning that told me that even though I am an 18 year old I can have a jab at one of the drop in centres without appointment.

[PanBiker]

Coates went up to 22 at the last count.

[Stanley]

Drop in jabs for all on the Co-op car park on Sunday. No. that was a mistake. Saturday is the day.

[Big Kev]

A couple of Barlick schools have pupils isolating this week. Looking at the latest stats, the amount of infections may be on the increase but the impact appears to be decreasing. Be interesting to see the stats again in a few weeks, hopefully the vaccination programme is doing what it should and reducing the severity of the symptoms.

[Stanley]

I was wrong about the drop in jab venue on the Co-op car park. It's today, not Sunday. The barriers were put up last night.

[Big Kev]

Unconfirmed reports that the lifting of all restrictions could be extended 4 weeks beyond June 21st. This delay will allow the younger age groups to be vaccinated, sounds like common sense to me but there will be public outcry from the minority.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57447632

[Stanley]

Won't there just!!
Like you Kev, if there is a delay it makes sense to me.

[plaques]

Why are we getting all this nonsense about 'could be' and 'probably' Nothing dramatic is going to change in the next two weeks. The SAGE experts know that things will get worse. Johnson has basically made up his mind NOT to change the opening date. All this prevaricating is to make it looks like he is listening to the science. The truth is more likely he is waiting to see which group will give him the maximum personal pain. If we are going to keep the restrictions he should say so now so that businesses waiting to see if they are going to need extra staff, supplies etc can get organised. Johnson's past dithering has already cost thousands of lives there's no need to add to these numbers.

[Tripps]

It's all a bit of a puzzle to the ''mug punter isn't it?

no masks.jpg

This is the same lady who was recently made to sit in lonely poignant isolation with a facemask at her husband's funeral. Now face to face with everyone, and the virus is live amongst the thousands of Police currently lodging on the cruise ship.

Make me wonder why I wore one to the Post Office, the other day, and kept two metres away from everyone.

They say the Canadian guy may be the son of Fidel Castro - can't see it myself.

[Stanley]

Perhaps the degree of her exposure is gauged in respect of the political gain David.
The drop in jab centre in the car park was packing up at 14:00. I get the impression they have not been flooded out with clients.....

[Big Kev]

They had 30 vaccines left at 13:00, word on the street (Facebook) is that they run out and had to close early. No idea how many they started with.

[Stanley]

Good if that was the case. Nice to know the offer was taken up.

[Stanley]

We are being drip fed a four week postponement of the relaxation of restrictions..... The betting is that it is now inevitable.

[plaques]

This drip feeding is part of the 'sniff' test. Try a little teaser to the great unwashed and see what the reaction is. If it goes down well put a bit more out. etc, etc. It really doesn't matter if the rules are already fixed or the programme has been established for months if it passes this test its reasonably safe to continue without affecting the voting base. In todays world that's all that matters.

[Big Kev]

Youngest granddaughter has tested positive, she seems OK but isn't impressed to be under house arrest for 10 days. 3 Barlick schools have pupils and staff isolating now.

[Tizer]

I see and hear lots of vigorous complaint from the usual sources about having to delay the `easing' of controls. Perhaps we need to point out something that seems to have been lost in all the discussions - a rise (or an uptick for those who don't know what rise means) in covid infections in the middle of a heat wave is bad news. The heat wave helps kill off the virus so discovering a rise in case numbers now is more serious than a rise in colder seasons. We're either infecting each other more or the the new variants are more resistant to higher ambient temperatures.

[PanBiker]

We are being drip fed a four week postponement of the relaxation of restrictions..... The betting is that it is now inevitable.

BBC news reported as much this morning quoting that the information was from government sources. I'm just an ordinary bloke but a delay seems pretty obvious to me. "Irreversible", can't think of a more stupid statement when it was first made!

[Whyperion]

The timing was always written in mud, not stone.
I wonder if Boris has worked out if you dont close borders to (from) India when there is a variant of concern originating there that the outcome is rising case numbers, mostly in the indian related (but not wholly) areas of the UK. (some clusters back in nursing homes and hospitals(Dundee?)). First jab seems weak against Indian one , relatively. Additionally the roadmap didnt take account of the AZ problem with the blood clot risk, so less jab avaliblitiy and Pfizer amounts were a bit restricted for a couple of weeks. Just look up the board here and one could see that Jun 21st was a not a chance.
I was thinking of plotting case numbers to hospital admission to death lags. Generally death has been fairly low , thanks to medical management, admissions rising , despite 85percent adult (or an age) first jabs . The data though has not made clear the ages of cases to ages of admissions and deaths (nor underlying health conditions for deaths).