Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Sue]

I did not find the answer to the level expected before we stop social distancing, but surely if we get the R value down to the normal underlying value for flu then the risk becomes very low.

Surely the take up of our vaccination program for flu will have a great deal to do with the seasonal value for the infection. We don't have the benefit of a vaccine for Covid19 or even know how effective it will be for antibody production yet. So, the logical answer at the moment is still to exercise social distancing as the main limiting factor for further spread or another spike. It still does not explain the stats in London though, unless they are massaged to mask the truth.

I thought that and checked. The R values quoted are the ones excluding a vaccination programme or immunity in the population , which clear.y shows Covid is much worse than endemic flu but as the value is now below that of endemic flu I don’t understand the social distancing

[Tripps]

I've just looked to how the Spanish Flu ended. It looks like the second wave was worse than the first but it stopped quite abruptly in 1920.

After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly – almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave.[61] In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost disappeared from the city.

Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out[

I realise this isn't flu, and it's a coronavirus, and this one seems less likley to mutate, but they are both pandemics, and I need a straw to clutch.

I read today that the search for a vaccine may be hindered by the fact that the volunteers are now back in society, and exposed, but especially in London may not come into contact with an infected person. Thus its efficacy will be impossible to measure. Robert Peston at a press conference last week said there was not a single new case yesterday, so could we please stop lockdown in London?

It's tough this pesky science.

[Whyperion]

London- there is some thought the reporting is either wrong, or there is effective distancing of 2m (which is about all it takes). I think the level of sunshine, the cleaning regiemes and the main places where people mix- pubs clubs and cafes if work is distanced, all have marginal effects.

But overall there were still a couple of thousand new cases in the UK.

There is a graph of the probability of Dying from Covid-19 in the next year at any given age. The graph matches the probability of dying from any disease. Some folk have taken comfort from this, I dont. 1) how is the Covid-19 death probability worked out, before treatments, or after treatments? 2) If both probabilities are the same, then logically the probability of dying with diseases(old)+Covid-19 (new) is TWICE the original probability. this would seem to equate with the present total of excess deaths over normal deaths per month being about a double the previous tread total.

[Stanley]

An old army saying; "A soldier should be like his rifle, clean bright and slightly oiled" That's the key, KBO observe isolation and spend your time thinking about things like how a parallelogram motion works..... Bugger the R value!

[Sue]

I asked the question about the R as I would like to hug my grandchildren like everyone else. How low does it to have to get before we stop social distancing. Does anyone know. Meanwhile whilst on WHATS APP WE WRAP OUR ARMS ROUND THE PHONE GET UP CLOSE TO THE SCREEN AND KISS THAT! sorry about Caps Lock, but it does emphasise how we must all feel

[plaques]

Lots of sympathy for you Sue and others who are in the same predicament. The R value and social distancing are all about reducing the risk of catching the virus from people who are strangers or who you have no knowledge of their previous contacts. This last item can of course apply to close relatives.
If I was to do a risk analysis on your particular case. I would say the risk is in receiving the virus rather than transmitting it. You know the behaviour pattern of your family so do a Cummings. ( Legal notice, I take no responsibility for this advice. )

[plaques]

Back to the grand children topic. We live not 50 yards from the woodlands entrance to a large and well kept park Loads of people drive up the lane and park their cars and take advantage of a pleasant circular walk through this area. We see all kinds joggers, dog walkers, mountain bikers and couples young and old. What is surprising is how many people must have had their children very late in life possibly in their late fifties or early sixties. Must be something in the water.

[Whyperion]

Looks like the R Value may confuse folk, indeed it is a generalised social statistical value, it has no meaning on the probablity as such on two persons meeting one of which has the disease - in which case the probability of infection depends on the infection itself, time and nature of meeting it is possibly closer to 100% rather than nil but I could not say where. if neither absolutely do not have the disease then the chance of infection should be nil. If they do not know if they have the disease then the R value of less than one could suggest transmission between is likely to be low, more than one, then transmission likely to be higher. R effectively indicates the likelihood if specific knowledge is unknown.

On Dominic Cummings, I refrained from jumping in on this. Assuming he is telling the truth i am not certain about the drive to Barnard Castle parking in the car park and going for a short walk as being within the guidelines at the time (my timeline might be hazy), particularly as he said he felt ill despite being about 14 days after first showing symptoms, his journey there I think he said he did after taking medical guidance (I assume he has a private GP as getting through to a NHS one for me is pretty difficult). While The BBC reports on people who did not travel once again there is an amount of sloppiness in the inference of the reports since each situation quoted did not meet the criteria of the allowed exemptions, Cummings travel squeaked within the legalities, by virtue of the property he moved to being itself sufficiently isolated from others (though an empty terrace would have done so too). While this might be a result of privilege, or family hard work that a spare habitable building on a farm complex within a family was available, something most folk wont have access to, it should be noted that remote farms are no exemption from risk- I know of one family on the Burnley/Nelson border that has lost one person to the virus, as their work was around in the community and not able to work from home. It might have been better for Cummings to have informed the Cabinet Office or the Head of the Civil Service, but I suspect that as he had symptoms I know that the virus can affect ones judgement moving quickly from feelings of invincibility to vulnerability, or to have fully explained to the public before Johnson was forced to cover for him yesterday, wasting important time and effort for all concerned.

Some interesting medical treatments following in Bradford the BBC has been usefully following, which does throw up problems of community isolation for older persons on their own in simple ways - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52783865

Finally for now, I note Weston-Super-Mare hospital is full again with Covid-19 cases. The start of the next wave or hospitalisation need of remant of community cases?

[plaques]

Looks like the R Value may confuse folk, indeed it is a generalised social statistical value, it has no meaning on the probablity as such on two persons meeting one of which has the disease - in which case the probability of infection depends on the infection itself, time and nature of meeting it is possibly closer to 100% rather than nil but I could not say where. if neither absolutely do not have the disease then the chance of infection should be nil. If they do not know if they have the disease then the R value of less than one could suggest transmission between is likely to be low, more than one, then transmission likely to be higher. R effectively indicates the likelihood if specific knowledge is unknown.

The simplest valuation of R is when everyone is capable of catching the disease from a single person. This then gets a bit more complicated by adding other factors.

The rate of contacts in the host population
The probability of infection being transmitted during contact
The duration of infectiousness.

The next big factor is when the host population has a number of immune people amongst it which reduces the R rate. at this point it can be argued that because of the difficulty of contacting a susceptible host there is an element of probability in the R value. As the herd immunity increases and by quarantining those who would be susceptible the R rate may drop below 1.

Once we start looking at individual cases where Grandma may or may not have it and grandchild may or may not have it the results are pure numerical outcomes and nothing to do with R rates.
Ie: two people.
good + good = no transfer
bad + bad = no transfer
Good + bad = bad transfers it to good
bad + good = bad transfers it to good

[Marilyn]

Imagine everyone has it but you. Live life to protect yourself.

[Stanley]

Sue, see my piece on risk management and I AGREE ENTIRELY about Whatsapp and also the site!
Meanwhile, get a tee shirt printed with "Armageddon was Yesterday. Today we have a really serious problem" printed on it.....

[plaques]

The Cummings issue is really just a detraction from the real ongoing problem of the coronavirus pandemic. The plebs have suddenly found out that its the old saying 'do as I say not as I do' Nothing new here
The main questions should be asked is with the new release of lockdown limits what is the estimate on the R value and how many extra deaths will it cause. Somebody must have a ballpark figure to justify the increase in economic activity. Again people are not stupid and sadly as the restrictions ease there will inevitably be some extra deaths but why keep people in the dark about this obvious fact or is it a case of ignorance is bliss?

[Whyperion]

P agreed , the BBC seem well distracted from the key issues going forward.

i note that China has tested about 9.5m in Wuhan and found about 360 infections not showing symptoms. This is not going to be an easy virus to eliminate by distancing. I am happy that Turkey and parts of Africa are getting good means of reducing Covid-19 spread and improving treatment, the problem in other parts of Africa with other viruses- Ebola, / malaria for example , are going to be a challenge still of education, treatment, and prevention .

[Whyperion]

More on excess deaths, mainly on care homes and in the community. For Care homes this has been from Early May, Excess deaths not including covid-19 ones are up, as are from April those in the community. I suspect it could be a mix of delays into hospital and too ? early discharges from hospital.

[plaques]

The latest releases on the lockdown has all the hallmarks of a tragic cockup. To cope with any potential 'flair ups' there will be regional shutdowns. All this will rely heavily on the NHS tracing app Tracing Taking our local situation where lots of people travel to the big cities. Bradford, Leads, Manchester, Preston, we could become a hot spot by default transferred from other areas. Which area do you close down? as yet nobody has defined or quantified 'flair up', is it deaths in hospital, care homes etc or self isolation numbers. Watch this space.

[Tizer]

Listen to today's episode of Radio 4 `More or Less' and get the true story on how many people allegedly flew into the UK in the first three months of the year and where they came from - in particular that a very large number came from Italy and especially Milan, just when that was becoming the top coronavirus hot spot. Also you'll learn that the UK Border Force doesn't keep a record of the ultimate destination of people passing through our airports. The rest of the episode is very interesting and educational. More or Less

[Tripps]

Had Mr and Mrs Poet in the yard for a self isolated 'tete a tete' - at a distance of 2 metres of course.

I cut two bamboo stems from the garden to 2m length to avoid any error in spacing. I have plenty of bamboo - in fact it's getting a bit out of hand - anyone got a spare panda?

Nice occasion - we put the world put to rights again, over a bottle of Prosecco (first ever) and one of Doom Bar in the sunshine. Mr P is a big fan of uV light as a disinfectant. Says we'll be OK.

[Stanley]

More or Less was good.... I listened to it of course. David, fondle copper, it kills Covid on contact.

[plaques]

'More or Less' finished on an upbeat note by referring to how well other countries were doing after their first phase of lockdown allowances. How much faith can you put in other countries figures especially if they rely on tourism? 'Well they would wouldn't they' springs to mind.
I don't have much faith in this contact and trace app. Too many ifs and buts and possibly false contacts. eg don't hand your coat in a locker with your phone in it. You may also find your shopping trolly is spending too much time next to another one. We may be hanging our cap on a system that is fundamentally deeply flawed.

[PanBiker]

The phone app doesn't work, they are relying on individuals fessing up, being perfectly honest and having total recall of who they have been in contact with. Don't know how that will work with with the morons that think they are immune and don't give a toss.

A couple of weeks ago they were encouraging folk to go back to work. Now they are asking them and everyone they have been in contact with to stay at home for 14 days. Regional lockdowns, yeah right!

That Cummings bloke with his fairy story has done more damage than he can possibly imagine.

[Stanley]

Dead right about Cummings Ian. I despise the man.
On a brighter note I had a long video call with Margaret in Perth this morning (What a miracle!). She was telling me about the state of the wicket in Perth. Lots of places still shut down but nowhere near as bad as us. She has never lost work and says that really, apart from sensible precautions they are doing really well. She did say that there was one situation in Fremantle, a ship had called in to pick up 56.000 live sheep for Saudi Arabia and most of the crew had tested positive. The sheep are on a feed lot and a new crew is being sent out. (LINK)

[Sue]

I have an acquaintance who is one of the volunteer tracers, she was telling me yesterday what it entails. The whole questionnaire takes more than 30 minutes, of course it is scripted completely. When she gets a list it may include someone who has died and of course she has to phone bereaved relatives. It is not a job I would relish. Luckily for her she is a trained health and care professional and has been trained in bereavement counselling, but not everyone will be in that position. ‘ Oh may I offer condolences but please give me names, addresses telephones emails of everyone your ...... was in contact with over the last week’ . An impossible task. Confidential information but then kept on record for years. Oh and by the way now stay isolated for 14 days. I am not sure how successful this will be. There are three categories of contact too and these determine the outcome of the tracing, or is it an interrogation!

[Stanley]

Dido says it is going well...... Hancock says "world class".
As David says, what could possibly go wrong?

[Sue]

Deconfinement , as they call it in France is going well there. We are watching carefully as whatever they do we are not far behind. We hope to be able to revisit at the end of August. 14 days Quarantine in France is optional and not compulsory. We are not sure if that is everyone pr just travellers from the UK and/or the rest of Europe. Meanwhile the States seems in chaos. My cousin in N California and my university friend in Florida are both very worried indeed. My friend in Massachusetts, thinks a certain person can do nothing wrong .

[Marilyn]

My advice - don’t get too far ahead of yourselves. I wouldn’t be planning another trip into France.
You guys don’t really know what lockdown is!
And ( my view only), your track and trace is way too late and not likely to have great outcomes. Track and trace is imperative, and should not be regarded as an invasion of rights or liberties. But that will become obvious, as you still have such a long way to go to catch up. You are well behind the curve with this tactic.
We don’t want our borders open. The rest of the world is contaminated.
I don’t know how you can sit comfortably with the death rate...it is in no way acceptable. ( but I know in my heart that you are concerned about the death rate too, and you sort of know you are going to give up more liberties yet to get it under control).
Life needs to be very different for some time yet. Don’t rush to “be free”. Be cautious.