Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[plaques]

The 'Good' news is that the Omicron virus is thought to be 70% less severe than the Delta. As always there is no explanation of what 70% less severe means. If we do a very simple comparison of deaths with Delta the number point to 1.25 deaths per 100 who contract the illness. Therefore a 70% reduction gives 0.4 deaths per 100. Unfortunately when the infection rate hits 100,000 per day it still amounts to a lot (4000) being potentially very ill. Remember the Delta is still out there as well. Hopefully people will adjust their behaviour and minimise the risk but while the media is banging on about 70% then they are pushing the 'Good' news a little too hard.

Sorry about the negative post but we know it makes sense to take care of each other.

[Tizer]

One of Mrs Tiz's relatives has tested positive. He's in his 30s, lives in High Wycombe but works for the London Fire Brigade. Many of his colleagues are off sick and so are many London ambulance service staff.

I'm very wary of the `thought to be 70% less severe than the Delta' claim. It's still too early to know how it affects people our age. Also, we don't know if it can cause `long-covid' - and won't know that for a long time. Better to be careful than sorry.

[Tizer]

My report on Mrs Tiz's firefighter relative was from yesterday. Today he's laid up in bed and feels terrible. He hasn't yet got a PCR result so we don't know which variant but he doesn't have a sore throat so we think he probably has Omicron - which has put a lot of the London Fire Brigade on sick leave. He's a big, healthy, fit guy in his 30s but it's felled him nevertheless. Omicron spreads like wildfire. It might be because the virus does it's work in the upper, bronchial area, unlike the other variants which work in the lower lung.

[Tripps]

I get a feeling that we approaching a turning point. Something has to give. I read that 1 in 10 people in London is infected, but little severe illness. From not knowing anyone who'd 'had it' we now all know someone who 'has it'

We can't stand another lockdown, and seeing that the previous ones didn't work why should we?

The economy can't stand another lockdown and with the coming 'exponential' price rises for fuel, many will suffer. How long will we stand for public funded workers and pensioners feeling no pain whilst the real wealth creators go under.

To quote Mona Lott from ITMA - "It's being so cheerful that keeps me going"

[Whyperion]

Dont know about previous lockdowns not working, the failure points where lockdown / place of work not done properly (Leicester/ Bradford). Nursing Home Issues , leave them aside and the attrition of infection, death and a totally knackered NHS was avoided. (so Wounded, but not out is the best description).
Noted the suggestion that omicron hits the upper bronchial - presumably all those extra spikes make it bigger for bigger places it previously passed by. and more to catch on.

[Whyperion]

Noted that a few folk here say relatives have nasty colds/ cough infections. I am sure some will be other viral infections that can be fatal to some older persons, these have never been recorded or examined very well , so take care.

[Stanley]

David, Ken and Peter, I don't think any of you need apologise for being negative. All the news, medical, political and economical is negative at the moment and anyone who isn't worrying about next year should waken up and smell the coffee!
Did you see what the doctor said yesterday about ethnic minorities having such a low take-up of vaccines and boosters because unlike us, who have been steeped in deference and tradition for a thousand years, they don't trust politicians. High time the blue rinse matriarchs and the shires joined them.
I hope you're right David and there is a tipping point. God knows where to!

[Tizer]

We can't stand another lockdown, and seeing that the previous ones didn't work why should we?

To stop the hospitals, the care and the emergency services collapsing.

The economy can't stand another lockdown...

The economy can't stand all our workers becoming ill, some dying and others suffering what might be permanent long-covid.
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I warned yesterday that we don't know if Omicron can cause `long-covid'...
`Long Covid: 'I have to choose between walking and talking'' LINK
`More than a million people in the UK are suffering from long Covid, with fears the number could rise due to the Omicron variant. Many patients say they only had a mild initial infection but it went on to ruin their health, social lives and finances....
Cardiologist Prof Banerjee is concerned that the current number of infections will result in more people suffering with long Covid. Many patients developed it after a mild infection, he says, so he is not reassured that the Omicron variant may produce less severe initial illness. "We know that people who were not hospitalised with acute Covid have gone on and been more impaired and we should be concerned about that," he says.
Vaccines are undeniably helping prevent death and severe illness but scientists do not know yet if they protect against long Covid, he says. Many young people with long Covid have not been able to return to work, he adds, and this has had a major impact on their health, wellbeing and the economy. He believes the best way to prevent it is to "avoid getting infected in the first place and keep the infection rate down", which will not be achieved with a vaccine-only approach, he says. "I would love to see more consideration, debate and acknowledgement of long Covid from our policy-makers," he says. "If you only measure deaths you miss out the impact on peoples' lives. We should know better than this."...'

[Stanley]

Another problem about 'Long Covid' is that many people like my daughter Susan have gone down with rare conditions like hers, Sarcoidosis, and the suspicion is that they are triggered by Covid-19. That's why over six months later the unit that is investigating Long Covid is still monitoring her. So far these cases haven't been registered statistically as Long Covid but they are out there adding to the total.

[Tripps]

A couple of things added to my now almost total confusion in the face of the Omicron variant.

I had my daily ten minute virtual walk around Puerto de la Cruz today- topping up my Vitamin D - and noticed that almost everyone was wearing a face covering out of doors, and socially distanced. Don't recall seeing that before. Seems the Spanish government has made it the law.

Now I read that -

England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.

Looks like the teachers unions want them fitted by the time the holiday is over. The Guardian perceptively points out that -

Government guidance suggests teachers should open external windows and internal doors to improve natural ventilation and schools “should balance the need for increased ventilation while maintaining a comfortable temperature”. Opening windows is likely to be more difficult when schools return in cold January temperatures.


PS - looks like the popular press metric for cost will now be 'Royal Yachts' like area is measured in football pitches' and height is in Nelson's columns.

[Whyperion]

The economy can't stand another lockdown...

The economy can't stand all our workers becoming ill, some dying and others suffering what might be permanent long-covid.
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Do we not have 5million Hong Kong Chinese heading to Greater Manchester ?

Cardiologist Prof Banerjee is concerned that the current number of infections will result in more people suffering with long Covid. Many patients developed it after a mild infection, he says, so he is not reassured that the Omicron variant may produce less severe initial illness. "We know that people who were not hospitalised with acute Covid have gone on and been more impaired and we should be concerned about that," he says.
Vaccines are undeniably helping prevent death and severe illness but scientists do not know yet if they protect against long Covid, he says.

Can this be difficult to untangle because it was generally younger UNVACCINATED people that if they got covid , tended to get it milder (yes i know some died from it ), so can we say that it was lack of vaccine, or vaccine taking the edge off virus that leads to long covid conditions ? And are those conditions from the virus itself , or the immune system response to it ? We know (and its rarely investigated or reported) that virus over the years have caused heart (and liver?) conditions - mostly because hearth muscle once damaged is difficult/impossible to repair , (have those viruses specifically been coronaviruses , or do the flu/rhino viruses have similar effects ?)

[Big Kev]

I'm sure I read somewhere that the government were recommending the use of Dyson purifiers in schools, there are many cheaper options available but why would they want to save the taxpayer some money...

[Tripps]

I'm sure I read somewhere that the government were recommending the use of Dyson purifiers in schools, t

Strangely that Guardian article mentions Dyson, but says they are cheaper than an alternative. That must be a first.

Do we not have 5million Hong Kong Chinese heading to Greater Manchester ?

No need to panic- it's only three million.

This guy is showing them, on a daily basis, what housing awaits them in the 'much sought after' Droylsden area.
Welcome to Manchester

We're drifting further off piste - but forgive me - Well I never - I was going to say it would be handy for the trotting - then found this link - which in a truly jaw dropping moment saw my friend from a long time ago shouting the odds - near the end of the video. Droylsden Trot

[Stanley]

That was a varied start to the day, a man selling houses in Droylsden speaking Chinese and trotting from almost 40 years ago.
Meanwhile I note we are allowing the public to congregate in bars and infect each other as long as it's in England. Seems strange to me.

[PanBiker]

Regardless of what the majority of experienced professional medics recommend, Bozo has decided to do nowt! I reckon his decision is purely based on the number of folk dying and nothing else. Total madness in my view unless of course you have decided to abandon the population to herd immunity. That can be the only rational explanation for his lack of action.

Guess what, I will continue to do what I think is fit to try and keep myself safe.

[Tizer]

The PM seems to want to allow the virus to run amok over the New Year holiday and only then shut down to try and prevent a surge in infections. A case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted?

[Whyperion]

I'm sure I read somewhere that the government were recommending the use of Dyson purifiers in schools, t

Strangely that Guardian article mentions Dyson, but says they are cheaper than an alternative. That must be a first.

Oddly one of my tech projects I cobbled together at school I should have progressed on (I am useless at making anything - including wrapping christmas presents), was an air purifier, comprising an old Smiths Heater from a car, a 12v battery, two plastic funnels cut to fit the intake on the heater blower and a tin can stuffed with cotton wool and (drawing) charcoal , with a length of curly trunking. I think basically this is not far off the actual real designs though mine was poss not practical ( mainly lugging a car battery to school on the luggage rack of my bike was a bit of a problem). should have perused the idea - does Dyson have any special patent on theirs ?

The PM seems to want to allow the virus to run amok over the New Year holiday and only then shut down to try and prevent a surge in infections. A case of shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted?

Boris MIGHT actually get the gamble correct, IF deaths dont follow the upward path of increased infections , banking hope on vaccines, he may yet show the lockdown sceptics that a reasonably open economy does work - though of course some 50% of normal people that go to pubs/clubs are making their own choice not to go to such places. I see pubs will be able to stay open until 1pm on the Platinum Jubilee Weekend , one assumes Covid really will be over by then .

[Big Kev]

The BBC must be running out of scare stories, the following is from the headline story at 22:00 this evening

So far, the surge in cases driven by Omicron has not led to a similarly sharp rise in hospital admissions, even taking into account the lag between infection and hospital treatment.

[Tripps]

Not really been paying full attention, but the Telegraph are reporting that the isolation times from the app are not up to date. Perhaps they have been reading this board?

Now I think perhaps this is good news - let's hope so. . .

"Optimism is growing rapidly in South Africa as the wave of Covid infections caused by the Omicron variant seems to subside as quickly as it came. "

South Africa Omicron situation.

[Stanley]

Let's hope the South African's are right David. Only problem is that Johnson will claim he was right about allowing gatherings in pubs....

[plaques]

Newspaper headlines. "Hospitality have been handed a life line". Sounds like a "Faustian bargain" of swapping profit not to mention donations for 'X' number of deaths that could potentially be avoided.

[Stanley]

I agree Ken. It is a good example of how hard cash trumps humanitarian considerations.
A large gamble has been taken and if it comes off Johnson et al will be crowing. They have all missed the point, the gamble should never have been taken. The experts clearly thought that but didn't rebel hard enough against their political masters.
It's all part and parcel of a system whereby politicians who have no knowledge or expertise ignore the advice of the real experts. Another place where it sticks out a mile is in defence spending.

[Big Kev]

I see the government are wasting money building 8 regional Nightingale 'hubs'. I'll be interested to see who is going to staff them...

[Whyperion]

I see the government are wasting money building 8 regional Nightingale 'hubs'. I'll be interested to see who is going to staff them...

Not seen anything about that, information would be interesting. Still think Isolation Hospitals would be useful, putting all services on one footprint never seemed like a good idea to me. likewise the cottage hospital system - which provided a decent halfway place too from acute services to people going home or into care.
(Edit Just seen one on mums local news - small 100 bed unit going up on the Car Park of existing hospital, said to be for those recovering from treatment that still need isolation, presumably this will allow other wards some space and can be run with fairly low levels of less experienced or specialised staff).

I sort of backed Boris, given the science information coming from South Africa it seemed reasonable that the variant was less deadly in the short run, while I do note that hospitalisations are increasing somewhat, while I thought it would take until Jan 4th to get some real picture of things, now I would say Jan 21st. People have taken steps to avoid Omicron , and those have probably been enough to avoid Delta and others, hence another reason for lower deaths (I think we are still short of appropriate PPE in nursing homes and hospitals, so some numbers are despite govt (in)action, some because of it.

[Stanley]

I mentioned that to Mick yesterday and being an ex RSM he immediately answered me, the Army is the only repository of skill sets that they can access to staff the Nightingale Facilities. We had a nightingale Hospital in Harrogate last time they were deployed, and it never saw a single patient.
I fear it is politicians confusing activity with action....