Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Sue]

I had no reaction to my jab, just a little tender but yesterday evening and this morning I have a large red patch where it is tender. This has never happened before. Bobs arm is ok, just tender

[Stanley]

Good, plenty of time yet for a reaction but so far absolutely no signs of it.

[Stanley]

News this morning that one of my grand daughters is banged up with her partner for ten days as he has Covid. They are in the West Country near Bath.

[Tizer]

As well as vaccines we've now got two new drugs for treating covid infections...
`Pfizer says antiviral pill 89% effective in high-risk cases' Pfizer

`Molnupiravir: First pill to treat Covid gets approval in UK' Merck, Sharp and Dohme

[PanBiker]

Got a news item on my phone that said that to speed the boosters up that from Monday you can apply for a booster five months from your second jab instead of the current six months.

[Tripps]

Sky News is reporting that Waterford has an adult (over the age of 18) vaccination rate of 99.5 % - certainly the highest in Ireland, and
probably the highest rate in the world. However it also has the highest rate of Covid infection in the country. A professor from Trinity College says "it's not a vaccine -it was never meant to eliminate infection".

Take that conversation where you wish, and make of that what you will.

[Stanley]

Yes David, we all refer to it as a vaccine but at the same time we all know that what it does is prevent the worst symptoms of the disease if you get the virus. My second line of defence is still keep away for people....
I heard an expert predicting that it will become like a severe flu and we will have a jab for it each year, just like winter flu. That sounds about right.
I was thinking of the effect it had in the early days of exploration when we went to a country that didn't have indigenous flu when it was endemic in Europe. In those days they called it the Sweating and it was the next biggest killer after the plague. As soon as we passed it on to clean populations they had an epidemic. Exactly the same way we got Covid and the same effects.

[Big Kev]

The NHS website let me book covid boosters for the both of us. November 20th at a chemist in Colne

[PanBiker]

When I checked last night the Chemist at Colne was not offering boosters only first and second doses. Nearest was a Nelson Chemist or the venue in Charter Walk at Burnley where we had our original jabs.

[Big Kev]

I only checked this morning after reading you could book after 5 months of your second jab, you can then make the appointment for 6 months after the second jab. I trust that makes sense.

[PanBiker]

Yes, I know what you mean. Our 6 months is up tomorrow so we will see if we get anything from the surgery as they specifically asked if we wanted to be contacted when we had our flu jabs.

[Stanley]

The venue offered may well depend on the availability of slots. Well in Barlick seems to be always busy, perhaps I was just lucky.

[Tripps]

This is interesting on 'waning immunity' a topic whch is important to me.
From Sebastian Rushworth MD.
A Swedish study, about to be published in The Lancet I think.

What about if we look at sub-groups, such as the elderly, who are by far the most at risk from covid-19, and therefore potentially have most to gain from vaccination?

People over the age of 80 initially show a good response to the vaccine, with a 73% reduction in relative risk of disease at one to two months out from vaccination. However this drops to only 50% at two to four months, and by six months there is no benefit whatsoever. Even for the middle aged (50-64 years), who have better functioning immune systems and who should therefore respond more strongly to the vaccines, the vaccines are completely ineffective at preventing symptomatic disease by the four to six months mark. The only group for whom the vaccines are more than 50% effective by the four month mark is people under the age of 50 (for whom effectiveness at four to six months is 51%).

Of course, how good the vaccines are at preventing symptomatic disease isn’t really what matters, if by symptomatic disease we usually mean something more akin to the common cold than to the Spanish flu. What really matters is how good the vaccines are at preventing serious disease. So, let’s look at that.

At one to two months out from vaccination, the vaccines provided a 91% reduction in risk of hospitalization or death. By four to six months, that had dropped to 74%. And from six months out, the reduction was down to 42%, although the difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated group was no longer statistically significant. In other words, at the six month time point it was no longer possible to detect a statistically significant effect of vaccination on risk of hospitalization or death.

As I see it, there are two possible explanations for the rapidly declining effectiveness of the vaccines. The first is that it’s due to the limited immunity produced by the vaccines themselves, and the second is that it’s due to the continued evolution of the virus and in particular the rise of the delta variant. If the second reason is true, then there is no reason whatsoever to give people boosters, because the boosters won’t do anything to improve immunity.

If the first reason is true, then there is a case to be made for boosters, although it feels pretty absurd to give everyone a booster every four months to protect against a virus that for most people is little more than a cold, that 99,8% of infected people will survive, and for which there is now massive natural population immunity, thanks to all the people who have already had covid. Unlike the short-term protection offered by the vaccines, the protection generated by infection has been shown to be both durable and broad, in spite of junk science claims to the contrary produced by the CDC. There is however a pretty good case to be made for regular boosting of the multi-morbid elderly every four months, preferentially with the Moderna vaccine.

So, what can we conclude?

The vaccines are much less effective than was initially believed, and effectiveness declines rapidly. With that being the case, the idea that it’s going to be possible for countries to vaccinate themselves out of the pandemic is clearly nonsense. The only way the pandemic ends is by enough people getting infected and developing natural immunity, which is the same way every prior respiratory virus pandemic has ended.

[PanBiker]

To the day, 182 days exactly since our second jabs. Just had a call from the surgery we are booked in at Colne Health Centre for our booster this coming Saturday morning, 10.10 and 10.15. Barlick doctors in attendance.

[Tripps]

Almost a PS.

I had a feeling that use of the previously much feted Astra Zenica jab had become much reduced. Not quite sure how. I knew that it had stopped being given to younger people because of heart related side effects. Looks as if, from the extract below, that it will only be given as a booster jab if no other option is available - so maybe my feeling might have been right? Be interesting to hear if any member gets it as a booster -especially if they had the AZ / Oxford for the first two jabs.

The .gov website says

Which COVID-19 vaccine will I get?

Most people will be offered a booster dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine or Moderna vaccine.

This means your booster dose may be different from the vaccines you had for your 1st and 2nd doses.

Some people may be offered a booster dose of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine if they cannot have the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna vaccine.

[Tizer]

The simple reason for giving a different vaccine to the one you had first is that they operate differently and therefore the efficacy will be greater having two different vaccines than the same one both times. I think Sue explained this some time ago.

As for Sebastian Rushworth M.D., I'd be very wary of his claims and beliefs. I've tried to find out more about him but everything on the web seems to be pumping him up and many of the links brought up by google are to his own web site. The google searches aren't normal, it's as if any criticism has been deleted. Very suspicious and I get the same using Bing. And the bottom of the google search pages say something like `some results may have been omitted to comply with GDPR regulations'. I've never seen my google searches fail to turn up opposing views.

[Tripps]

As for Sebastian Rushworth M.D., I'd be very wary of his claims and beliefs.

I agree - and I am wary. I think you may be right about manipulating search engine results. I followed the link he gave. That is The Lancet pre print site, and is not connected at all with him. He just commented on it. What would be his motivation if his aim was to deceive us? Lancet pre print site

This all a bit beyond my understanding, but I can't help commenting on what I see. I said right at start that there had never been a successful vaccination against a Corona virus due to mutations and I still think that to be the case. I expected any Autumn booster to be based on the newish Delta / Indian variation, but it seems not. There is still some benefit in the current Government approach, and I have had all three injections, but it's not a classic "vaccine". The evidence in that direction is building. See Waterford above and the Israel experience.

the efficacy will be greater having two different vaccines than the same one both times.

In that case there would be a lot of AZ booster jabs. There were certainly none at all, at the centre I attended a week ago. The whole signage there was based on " Pfizer-BioNTech (COMIRNATY) "

Pfizer-BioNTech (COMIRNATY) received U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval on August 23, 2021, for individuals 16 years of age and older. Once vaccines are approved by the FDA, companies can market the vaccines under brand names. COMIRNATY is the brand name for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine. Now that the FDA-authorized Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine has been approved by the FDA for individuals 16 years of age and older, it will be marketed as COMIRNATY. The use of the name Pfizer-BioNTech will still be used for individuals 12-15 years old since this age group has not been approved. There has been no change in the formulation of the vaccine since the name change.

I'll leave it there - I really don't care what conclusion anyone else comes to - I'll apply what I can to the problem and do what I think best.

[Wendyf]

I worry that you are overthinking this Tripps.

[Big Kev]

I worry that you are overthinking this Tripps.

I have to agree.

[Tripps]

I worry that you are overthinking this Tripps.

I'm not really sure what overthinking means, and why it should cause anyone to worry, but that's not my aim so I'll shut up.

[Wendyf]

Sorry Tripps! Please don't take offence, I worry about everyone!

[plaques]

Wendyf wrote: ↑08 Nov 2021, 18:51
I worry that you are overthinking this Tripps.
I have to agree.

I agree with Tripps. Basically the Pfizer was judged to be the most suitable for the original Alpha variant for the older generation. But subsequently Ok for the Delta. Now we are told that the vaccine wanes and you need a booster preferably of the same class as the Pfizer. The overall approach gives a good degree of protection and reduces the risk of dying from the current mutant strains. Nobody knows what may happen in the future. (don't tell God your plans). For now they are tweaking the requirement to suit the situation. I'll go along with this since there's bugger all I can do about it anyhow.

[Wendyf]

I wasn't disagreeing with anything Tripps said, I just made a thoughtless comment that I now regret!

[Tripps]

You are forgiven - I guess you were underthinking it all.

[Wendyf]

You are forgiven - I guess you were underthinking it all.

That's me!