Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Big Kev]

Encouraging news from two London railway stations after swab testing
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58052378

[Tizer]

That report is very good news although we've got to keep in mind that - as the researchers point out - it doesn't mean no virus is circulating, just that it wasn't in the areas they swabbed. If this work went to a journal for publication it would be put out to referees for their comments. I would be concerned that they have detected no covid virus, zilch, zero. That rings a waning bell for me - I'd want proof that their lab analysis for detection of virus was properly working at the time these results were obtained. I hope this will be included by the time a paper is published in a journal. There's further details of their work in this article from February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56110232

[PanBiker]

There is still a week to go before the effects of "Freedom Day" kick in. It will be played down no doubt.

[Tripps]

Covid 19 virus on surfaces

Is this rigorous enough for you? The Lancet

I vaguely remembered that a similar experiment had been done at mainline railway stations previously, with the same result. After reading that - I stopped worrying about the post deliveries. That said, I still always opened the door at the care home with my elbow - after washing my hands on the way out. That was in fear of the Norovirus though.

[Big Kev]

This from the BBC (I've posted it in it's entirety as not everyone has access to the BBC). Be good to hear from our man in the ground in China.

China Covid: Concerns grow as Delta outbreak spreads
Published2 hours ago
Authorities in China are testing millions of people after an outbreak spread to 18 provinces
A fresh Covid outbreak in China has spread to more locations, raising concerns in local media over the country's vulnerability to the highly contagious Delta variant.

More than 300 cases have been detected within a span of 10 days.

Local headlines have been dominated by news on the outbreak, and the country's top respiratory diseases specialist has reportedly expressed grave concern.

The government has imposed fresh travel restrictions and is testing millions.

It is unclear how many in China are fully vaccinated, although authorities say more than 1.6 billion doses have been administered so far.

A total of 15 provinces and municipalities have now confirmed cases, of which 12 are connected to an outbreak that began in Nanjing in China's eastern Jiangsu province. Authorities have attributed the spread to the Delta variant and the domestic tourist season.

Although case numbers are considerably lower than other places, it is considered the largest outbreak in months in China, a country that was largely successful in controlling the virus within its borders last year.

What is the Delta variant?
Cases first emerged in July in Nanjing airport, among workers who had cleaned a plane that arrived from Russia.

Authorities promptly tested 9.2 million residents of Nanjing and imposed lockdown on hundreds of thousands of people.

But over the weekend the spotlight turned to popular tourist destination Zhangjiajie in central Hunan province, where many of the latest cases have emerged. Travellers from Nanjing were thought to have visited the city recently.

Health officials have zeroed in on a theatre in Zhangjiajie, and are now trying to track down about 5,000 people who attended performances and then travelled back to their home cities.

One performance alone had hosted about 2,000 people, according to reports.

All attractions in Zhangjiajie have been closed and tourists are being asked to take a Covid test before leaving the city, local media reported.

"Zhangjiajie has now become the new ground zero for China's epidemic spread," Zhong Nanshan, China's leading respiratory disease expert, told reporters.

The new outbreak has reached Beijing too, with the city reporting several locally transmitted infections.

All of Beijing's air, bus and travel links to areas with positive cases have been cut. All tourists have also been banned from entering the capital, and officials are only allowing "essential travellers" with negative Covid tests to enter.

The virus has also reached Wuhan, the Chinese city where Covid-19 first emerged, with seven people testing positive for the virus. According to Chinese state media, the city had seen zero locally transmitted infections since June 2020.

China is also battling a rise in cases in Zhengzhou in northern Henan province, which saw devastating floods just last month, as well as Hainan island.


media captionDrone pictures show the extent of damage as our correspondent reports on the situation on the ground
The Global Times newspaper has called the outbreak the "most serious since Wuhan", and in a separate editorial criticised "glaring loopholes" in Covid prevention measures.

"It is absolutely worrying if a single flaw can affect many provinces and regions across the country... it shows that our systematic progress in fighting the epidemic needs to be strengthened," it said.

The outbreak has raised concerns about vaccines, as it emerged that some of those infected had been vaccinated.

Shao Yiming, a researcher with China's Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters on Saturday that breakthrough infections in vaccinated people "are expected".

Sinovac and Sinopharm's vaccines - two of the most commonly used jabs in China - have been shown to be 50% to 79% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid infection in clinical trials around the world, but are highly effective in preventing hospitalisations or deaths.

[Stanley]

That's a hard read for anyone who believes the Daily Mail; 'All over bar the shouting'. I have a feeling we could get a bit of a shock this winter and those who have been conservative about relaxing precautions could be the winners.
Then there is the matter of the attitude that ignores the fact that nobody is really concentrating on the next pandemic. Too many think that this is it and our troubles are over. There will be others! Many believe that the changes we have made to our relationships with animals is at the root of the cross over of infections like HIV Aids and Ebola. Those changes are still at work and we could be in for a few surprises.

[plaques]

From Sky News.
The government has said it plans to administer the booster vaccines to the first groups between 6 September and 17 December - a 15-week period.

The following people should be offered a booster vaccine and the annual influenza vaccine as soon as possible from September 2021:

• Adults aged 16 and over who are immunosuppressed
• People living in residential care homes for older adults
• All adults aged 70 and over
• Adults aged 16 and over who are clinically extremely vulnerable
• Frontline health and social care workers

We have already booked in at Boots Chemists, Colne, for the influenza vaccine but they didn't have any information on the Covid booster.

[Stanley]

"We have already booked in at Boots Chemists, Colne, for the influenza vaccine but they didn't have any information on the Covid booster."
That sounds like a good plan. Thinking back to how lax the surgery was with flu jabs last year I might be doing the same thing at Well in Barlick. One thing is certain, I shall be getting them as soon as possible!

[Stanley]

See THIS cautionary tale in the Guardian about a man dedicated to fitness and wild sports who refused vaccination and has died in hospital from Covid infection. I hope others will take notice, fitness or youth is no protection if the virus mounts a full attack on you and with the relaxation of precautions you are going to be more exposed.
Later.... The CEO of the NHS has warned that 1 in 5 of Covid cases are in the 18 to 34 range, a sharp increase on last winter. See THIS BBC account.
"In her first major interview, Amanda Pritchard told the BBC that about 1,000 young adults were currently "really unwell" in hospital. She said it was "so important" people came forward to get vaccinated. She added the level of young adults being admitted to hospital was four times higher than the peak last winter."

[Tripps]

Amanda Pritchard told the BBC that about 1,000 young adults were currently "really unwell" in hospital.

Pure coincidence I'm sure, that yesterday it was announced that the vaccine would be made available to 16 and 17 year olds.

Mr Green told another terminological inexactitude concerning the availability of lateral flow tests in Spain.

I've had a good think about this in the last few days, and decided on my strategy. I think I've sorted the rubbish from the reality, and I now know my way forward.

[Big Kev]

Despite the basis of the AstraZeneca vaccine being around for 20 years there are still people who think it's an experiment...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-dorset-58080116
This British Medical Journal article is a good read
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n86

[Stanley]

Onwards and upwards David. Excelsior!
Kev, doubtful if they think about anything. Rejecting what we see as common sense is easier than thinking so that's what they do and the only thing that will change their minds is if Covid starts attacking them or those close to them. Then, like the man yesterday, they will be saying they wish they had taken the vaccination when it was offered to them.

[plaques]

The government is now pushing for the 16 to 18 year olds to get the vaccine. All good stuff and taken in isolation its a good move. We of course follow the science. The problem with this argument is that the European countries have been doing it for two months. Is their science any different to ours? Also early on in the pandemic we were miles in front in getting the vaccine rolled out now it appears we are lagging behind. Its all very well quoting raw numbers but these mean little unless the percentage of population is shown along side. We have dropped quoting percentages I wonder why? Its becoming clear that there is some hold up in the vaccine supply but nobody is coming clean. The right-wing media will push the usual excuses. pingdemic. refuseniks, and young uns because they are young. Not me gov.

[PanBiker]

I agree Ken, why does the news media keep regurgitating the figures for the whole of the population. The older end and now those in middle age are not the problem. We are sorted. They should just quote how many 18 - 30 year olds have had the vaccine. That is the target group and if the poor take up was highlighted it may help to encourage more to get the jab.

I notice also that I am now seeing reports of the areas of the country with the lowest take up in that age group. They list 13 areas and highlight Manchester and Liverpool in the headline, the other 11 areas are all in and around London. So the report to the casual observer looks like its those lazy northerners that are letting the side down.

How many are in the 18 to 30 demographic? How many have had the jab? How many are in hospital? That is the crux of the matter now.

[Whyperion]

the govt has cleverly mediaded the latest statistics into 1/3rd of present hospital patients with covid are under 35. that might wake up a few people.

[Whyperion]

would be concerned that they have detected no covid virus, zilch, zero. That rings a waning bell for me - I'd want proof that their lab analysis for detection of virus was properly working at the time these results were obtained. I hope this will be included by the time a paper is published in a journal. There's further details of their work in this article from February: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56110232

I think the point Network Rail were making was that the areas swabbed were subject to cleaning, the idea of the testing was to confirm that the cleaning they were doing was effective in the time , places, and methods chosen. I dont think there was air testing - aircon in the cafe areas of the stations might be interesting.

[Whyperion]

latest BBC Reporting

Double vaccinated people will have fewer infections than people who are not jabbed. However, the vaccines are not perfect and some people still get “breakthrough infections”.

The PHE report says “once they are infected, there is a limited difference in viral load between those who are vaccinated and unvaccinated”.

This is a pattern that has emerged alongside the spread of the Delta variant. (question from me did this happen before Delta?)

Being double vaccinated greatly reduces the chances of needing hospital treatment or dying from Covid.
However, the viral load - a measure of the amount of virus in the body - is linked to how infectious you are. So the new data is raising fresh questions about how good the vaccines are at preventing the spread of the virus. (comment from me - this is why the case numbers were lower when lockdown lite mixing of people were restricted. China appears to be experiencing similar problems).

Elsewhere about 3/4 of British Armed Forces dont appear to have had a vaccine - is this a supply problem I would have added them first in the list after age , carers and and 999 staff.

[Tripps]

What a difference a day makes. . . .

MD in Private Eye explains why the JCVI had decided after a lot of thought that vaccinating young people is not wise, and extreme caution would be applied. The (low) risk of problems caused by the vaccine, (eg Myocarditis), is greater than the benefit of vaccinating the group. The matter however remains under consideration.

On the day this was published Dr Professor Jonathan Van Tam (sitting at a desk and not standing on his customary wooden box) explained that in fact the group aged between 16 and 18 would be offered a vaccine as a matter of urgency, and the programme would start by the end of August. It seems the group can decide for themselves whether to have the jab, and do not need parental consent.

This is complemented by headline front page press stories of youngish people dying of Covid, with testaments that they wish they had been vaccinated, and an announcement that the percentage of young people being hospitalised by the virus has risen from 5% to 20%. That sounds at first glance that the number has risen by a factor of four?

However there is no mention of how many people that actually is - since it's quite possible that the number has not increased at all - and that the percentage rise is due to a large reduction in the hospitalisation of older age groups. The link has been broken - remember? It's not difficult to confuse people with numbers, when an ignorance of maths is seen as acceptable even amongst otherwise seemingly well educated people.

[Stanley]

Like you two I am baffled and it wasn't helped by reading MD yesterday in PE. (My problem is I trust him and the government appear to be saying different things.)
There could be a fairly simple explanation. Has a policy decision been taken to let Covid rip and go for the elusive herd immunity and if that means a third wave in the young and other unvaccinated people so be it. That's the price that has to be paid. Trouble is that's only a theory, we don't know.
Perhaps it's time we educated the youngsters by showing them how bad Covid and its long term effects can be. My daughter did everything right and worked as a carer right through the pandemic. It now looks as though she will never work again and her reward? £75 a week. All because of damage to her immune system which nobody can say is Covid but it looks very much as though that's the cause. Do the youngsters realise this is what could happen to them? Or have we convinced them that it's a disease of the old and infirm.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of the change in Covid regulations for travel. It still looks complicated to me but of course does not affect me. I shall stay quiet at home and keep up my shielding defences. I have seen what Covid does to people even if they survive.
If I had any influence on young people, I would use it to urge them to get the vaccine.

[plaques]

This is fantastic news. Instead of people buying their imported wines from supermarkets they can now get them directly from the country of origin. Its a win win situation. Not only will the UK save on their balance of payments but will also take the pressure of the lorry driver shortage.

Ps, If you believe this you're dafter than I thought.

[PanBiker]

They should feature stuff like this on the TV news to wake people up. A story from Wales Online about a family of four by the surviving brother. His Mother, Father and Brother all started to feel unwell on the 10th July after having a meal together. All three were dead within two weeks from developing symptoms, they had all refused the vaccine.

[Stanley]

That's a terrible story Peter but where have these people been for the last eighteen months? It's almost Darwinian, the survival of the fittest. Anyone who refuses the vaccine is bonkers in my book. Show me a vaccine and I'll be at the front of the queue. That way the odds are better!
And yes, such stories should be headline news.

[Tizer]

It will continue if we don't improve education. Somehow we have to break the vicious circle where poorly educated parents prevent their children getting a proper education by instilling bad stuff in them from the beginning and then telling them what the teacher says is rubbish. If we don't deal with it properly now the day will come when an authoritarian approach will have to take over and do it the hard way.

[Stanley]

Read THIS Guardian article on the Marburg virus. Plenty of candidates out there for the next pandemic. This one is from Bats....