Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Sue]

We are testing differently, picking up all those asymptomatic cases,

I tried to cover that by

Make of the data what you will - surely all do not use the same method of measurement.

And that is a very significant factor

[Tripps]

I work roughly on the basis that all 'complex' problems are a series of 'simpler' ones running in parallel. Each of the 'simpler ' ones has to be given a weighting regarding its contribution to the whole. I do that - as far as my limited intelligence permits.

I think I can still be allowed to do that. Remembering of course that some of the 'complexity' is introduced on purpose, to confuse or even to deceive, and all need to be looked at with a little touch of scepticism.

Paxman's first rule of interviews can usefully be applied - Why are these b******s lying to me?

[Sue]

Ah well I viewed it with a biological/ health scientists view point not a political one and will continue to do so. I long since stopped looking at the worldometer as a means of comparison. As you say not like with like

[Sue]

Worth watching, political and scientific explanations. A bit or what we both said and more

[Tripps]

That's interesting - thanks for the information. I'm aware of this chap but don't know much detail about him. First impression - he likes the limelight. I shall pay more attention to his background, and what he says.

I started this conversation by quoting (with reservations) the Worldometer figure for 'New Cases' in the last day, and pointing out that it was the second highest in the world. Yesterday they gave a figure of over 40 thousand (almost doubled in the last few weeks) - whilst Professor Spector says over 60 thousand. He also says the vaccine uptake for two doses is only about 60 % , and the (neglected recently) R rate stands at 1.1 which indicates exponential spread. I was not aware of either of those figures.

It's all a bit pessimistic, and seems to put the clock back by a year. He aslso implies that the Government is deliberately witholding details of some of the symptoms of the disease. Why would they want to do that? It's hard to untangle the politics from the science as you have remarked.

I'm in 'trouble' with one half of my family for being too cautious, whilst the other half is more cautious than me.

[Tizer]

Today's Guardian front page article. We heard about this some time ago from the Guardian but now the Report itself has finally become available after being held back by the government...
`Coronavirus report warned of impact on UK four years before pandemic: Exclusive: Report from planning exercise in 2016 alerted government of need to stockpile PPE and set up contact tracing system' Guardian
`Senior health officials who war-gamed the impact of a coronavirus hitting the UK, warned four years before the onset of Covid-19 of the need for stockpiles of PPE, a computerised contact tracing system and screening for foreign travellers, the Guardian can reveal. The calls to step up preparations in areas already identified as shortcomings in the government’s response to Covid, emerged from a previously unpublished report of a health planning exercise in February 2016 that imagined a coronavirus outbreak. It was commissioned by Dame Sally Davies, then chief medical officer, who attended alongside officials from NHS England, the Department of Health, Public Health England, and observers from the devolved administrations. The participants imagined cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV) arriving in London and Birmingham and spreading rapidly resulting in “a large scale outbreak”. Like Covid, MERS causes potentially fatal respiratory illness and can spread asymptomatically; there were no known treatments or vaccines..'.

[Sue]

That's interesting - thanks for the information. I'm aware of this chap but don't know much detail about him. First impression - he likes the limelight. I shall pay more attention to his background, and what he says.

he is part of the covid 19 app team . This is where I get a lot of i formation as I registered with them over 15 months ago and report daily on my state of health , plus the results of our lateral flow tests which we do regularly. I follow up so e of tbe research issues to find out more but to be honest there is so much out there its almost impossible to keep up. There is lots of research goi g on and the site also gives a weekly update of figures and sen a report to the government. One. of the reasons given for the higher figures is that many people who report a positive lateral flow test on the app do not then have a follow up PCRTest. One hopes that they do isolate on the strength of their lateral flow.

What we do forget is that this virus is the most researched in the world and it may well be that some of its features that have been thought odd and different may in fact be quite common in the virus world. That would be a good PhD which I would have loved to have done but not at my age !

[Tripps]

that many people who report a positive lateral flow test on the app do not then have a follow up PCRTest.

I read yesterday somewhere that there have been a lot of cases recently in which a positive lateral flow test has been follwed by a negative PCR test.
They're looking into reasons why that may have happened. +ve LFT -ve PCR

Meanwhile the nation behaves almost as if it's all over. I remain largely puzzled by it all.

[PanBiker]

Done my PCR test and it's in the post on it's way back. Still feel OK.

[Sue]

Some of the nation Tripps.

All my friends, relatives and ourselves, socially distance, wear masks, keep socialising to a minimum or certainly within a small social circle, in our case we still don’t go in shops and have only rejoined live groups that have appropriate covid safety restrictions in place. We may travel to France on a ferry but we stay in our cabin except when eating in the cafeteria. We have to wear a mask in all places except cabin. It is noticeable that in Rochdale town centre the public tend to wear a mask even outside. Perhaps our experiences of Greater Manchester restrictions last year remain in our minds and we don’t want it again.

I have said it before, the highest number of infections are in the unvaccinated and the high school aged children. These are only just being vaccinated now. The 60 % plus vaccination level quoted on the youtube video now takes this age group into account , where as a couple of weeks ago it was not included, and the vaccination rate was considerably higher amongst those that could be vaccinated.

[Big Kev]

Dropped into Barlick Aldi yesterday evening on our way home from Harrogate, me an' P were the only people wearing masks. Everyone looked to be under 30 so obviously immune to all diseases...

[Sue]

Dropped into Barlick Aldi yesterday evening on our way home from Harrogate, me an' P were the only people wearing masks. Everyone looked to be under 30 so obviously immune to all diseases...

I suppose when I go into Rochdale its only oldies, the youngsters are at work or school

[Big Kev]

Dropped into Barlick Aldi yesterday evening on our way home from Harrogate, me an' P were the only people wearing masks. Everyone looked to be under 30 so obviously immune to all diseases...

I suppose when I go into Rochdale its only oldies, the youngsters are at work or school

Good point, we normally go shopping during daylight hours. We're 60 now so starting to blend in with the 'oldies'

[PanBiker]

Sally's PCR test results are in and she is negative. Notified via email and the NHS Covid app.

[Stanley]

No doubt the 2016 report will be mentioned when the government has allowed an enquiry...
Sorry you're in trouble with half the family David. I am in your camp of course, you wouldn't be in trouble with me.
Sue and Kev are correct between them. The mask wearing and social distancing is definitely a matter of age. The reports about footballers refusing the jab back this up.
I shall carry on in my own sweet way and continue to shield almost.

[Sue]

Sally's PCR test results are in and she is negative. Notified via email and the NHS Covid app.

Hopefully yours will be too, I said it was quick

[chinatyke]

According to the Sun, that fount of all knowledge, the UK has reported >30,000 new Covid cases per day for 19 consecutive days. Is this due to the social parasites who won't take the jab or wear a mask? These are dreadful figures.

[Stanley]

You're right Graham but every time the question is asked the answer is that yes, there are more cases but that's because we test more and anyway they aren't severe because of the vaccinations.
Take your pick!

[Sue]

Headline in New York Times. I think the outcome will be that people won’t test , rather than pay. They will probably just stay off work with a cold and say they have covid , from my experience of the french psyche

C8DE1496-EB36-47EB-9FF7-EE7F1F961F75.jpeg

so e employers may insist on a test of course

[Sue]

You're right Graham but every time the question is asked the answer is that yes, there are more cases but that's because we test more and anyway they aren't severe because of the vaccinations.
Take your pick!

Cynical but true Stanley.

[Stanley]

Realistic Sue....

[PanBiker]

NHS Covid app and a text at 08.53 this morning not forgetting an email which was sent late last night all confirm that my test was negative. I am nothing if not well informed.

[Tripps]

Dr Jennie Harries says today that the risk of death if you catch flu and Covid together is doubled. Twice as likely

1. That is the exact opposite of what I heard another 'expert' say yesterday. He said 'It's most unlikely anyone will have both infections at the same time', Sorry I didn't note his name.

2. Since there has not been any flu during the last year and a half of the Covid - and thus no one can have had both infections at the same time - how can she say that?

I'm still puzzled by it all. . . .

[Stanley]

I am as as puzzles as you David. I think I'll ignore the different the different 'truths' we are offered and simply do my best to avoid all infections. There are so many different truths about!

[Tripps]

There are so many different truths about!

There can only be one by definition. One of them must be right - logic says it can't not be. I'll keep looking, but I'm not expecting quick success.