Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Big Kev]

The restrictions here in Pendle have been just that, restrictive. Despite being only a couple of miles from the North Yorkshire border we got lumped in with the rest of LancashirE...

And we are only 400 metres from Rossendale which have mot had tge same continuous restrictions, and my area in particular is low but we have to do what Greater Manchester has had to do.

The whole thing has been a fiasco really.

[Tripps]

In the banner shown in Tripps' link the claim is made out of context,

But it's not untrue.

My concerns as remarked in the last few days largely remain a puzzle to me - and here's another. Why has this Corona virus behaved this year in a different manner to other such viruses. and thrived in the Summer - despite vaccine, masks, and social distancing - rather than declined?

Virus times.jpg

[Big Kev]

Just read this in the BBC

People do not need to automatically self-isolate if they are sent an alert by the Covid app, a government minister stresses.

There has been widespread criticism that the app has been sending out so many alerts that hundreds of thousands of people are self-isolating and missing work, causing disruption.

The app has always been voluntary to download and any alerts are advisory. That's because nobody knows who has been pinged due to privacy, so they can't be forced. However the official guidance was that people should isolate immediately if the app tells them too.

A new update to the app on Monday features language stressing it is advisory, rather than compulsory.

Business minister Paul Scully said on Tuesday morning that self-isolating after being told to by the app was a decision for individuals and employers.

Scully told Times Radio: "It's important to understand the rules. You have to legally isolate if you are on the... contacted by Test and Trace, or if you're trying to claim isolation payments.

"The app is there to give... to allow you to make informed decisions. And I think by backing out of mandating a lot of things, we're encouraging people to really get the data in their own hands to be able to make decisions on what's best for them, whether they're employer or an employee."

Asked whether this meant people should or should not self-isolate if "pinged", he said: "We want to encourage people to still use the app to be able to do the right thing, because we estimate it saves around 8,000 lives."

However, he added that it was "up to individuals and employers".

Clear as mud then...

[Big Kev]

A short while later

Returning now to more detail on our top story - Downing Street has said it is "crucial" to self-isolate when told to do so by NHS Test and Trace or the NHS Covid-19 app - and businesses should support employees to do so.

It is an attempt to clear up confusion after business minister Paul Scully said he would encourage people to self-isolate when "pinged" by the app but they can make an "informed decision" themselves.

The app has always been voluntary to download.

People who are "pinged" by the Covid app and told they have been in close contact with someone with coronavirus are advised - but not legally obliged - to self-isolate for 10 days.


They need consistency

[PanBiker]

They need consistency

I don't think they know the meaning of the word.

Lets open all the nightclubs without restrictions. Next day, from the end of September anyone visiting a nightclub will need to be able to prove they have been double jabbed.

In the meantime (10 to 11 weeks), thousands of young folk will have been to nightclubs, had a proper good time and already spread the virus about. They may not die themselves because they are young an fit, some will though and many others may end up with Long Covid. Worst case scenario, hug your Grandma and effectively say goodbye.

Culpable Homicide.

[Tripps]

In the meantime (10 to 11 weeks), thousands of young folk will have been to nightclubs, had a proper good time and already spread the virus about.

I don't usually go for conspiracy theories, but it's difficult to think other than that is the intention. The original strategy last April, was for herd immunity - quickly abandoned when they heard Prof Ferguson's predictions. I think they are back to that.

You know - once everyone has had that cold (Corona virus) that's going round - you'll be immune to another one. . .

Cummings says that Boris, having heard that at the start of the pandemic, the age at death was greater than the life expectancy age, said 'catch Covid - and live longer'.

Must have missed the logic module at Oxford.

[Tizer]

I see the boss of the NHS has complained to The Times because the paper reported the covid `pings' as being sent out by the NHS. She say it's not them it's the Department of Health and Social Care. But when I look on the Web everything seems to say it's the NHS. Who to believe?

[Stanley]

I think the one thing we can all agree on in the last few days particularly is that the evidence points to the government making it up as they go along but with the general intention to ignore protection and go for economic health. Only problem is the two are incompatible. The more you ignore protection the more people are off work. (Even Johnson, Sunak and Javid.)

[Whyperion]

But it looks like vaccine is working as anticipated

Really? A banner at the Freedom Day protest just seen on TV, reads
"60% of deaths are amongst vaccinated people. If the vaccine worked it be zero."
Is it true - I don't know.

Such is the problem with statistics. My comment was a shortcut on whats previously been noted on efficacy and effectiveness.

2 Jabs after the appropriate time period, most adults dont get the severe symptoms , dont need hospital treatment. But some do - and Indeed I would like to know why the amount, type or whatever of anti-bodies are ineffective against providing protection for the individual against any covid variant, I assume the researchers would also like the information of that. But because the vaccine generally is good , its that much fewer pool of people that are ending up in hospital and dying, so basically for whatever reason, they got it really bad. And deaths are indeed fairly low ( If cases are running at 40,000 a day deaths are hardly more than 200 a day, much lower than pre-vaccine. (Yes I know too the isolation and mingling restrictions also stopped the general circulation of covid and the high recent case numbers are from travel and basically the euro championships and schools opening). Unvaccinated then covid-illness-death is much faster and higher - but because far fewer people now are unvaccinated they are not making up the substantial percentage of deaths. Eg if there is a population of 10, 8 are vacinated, 2 not. 1 unvacinated dies, one vacinated dies, thats 50percent deaths for each vacination status, but the key proportion is 1/8 of vacinated die, 1/2 of unvacinated (Ok real life numbers not quite that stark but hopefully the maths makes sense, the same would be true for 100 population, 1in80 and 1 in 20, still gives a 50percent deaths of vaccinate - it ignores the 79 that didnt die. (I think thats the efficiency rate).
Agree with Sue though that there is now time, to carefully look at the other medical issues in deed of effective NHS intervention, particulary detection and treatment of cancer, though high deaths at present seem to be coming from drownings, there is a need for social education on this, as warnings over the years appear unheeded.

[Stanley]

Kier Starmer has a child with Covid so he has had to isolate as well.

[plaques]

To be honest nobody really knows how things will pan out in the next few months. We can look at charts until the cows come home but each phase of this pandemic is slightly different to the last. What is annoying is the way that data is presented to support their latest guess at what may happen. The most recent example is when Sir Patrick Vallance made the mistake of saying more cases of vaccinated than non-vaccinated. A genuine mistake but then compounded it by spending another minute building a case why this was so. The government is operating a covert herd immunity strategy but which direction the herd will stampede off into and whether it will change direction part way along the track is anybody's guess.

[PanBiker]

I wish when they report on the number of vaccinated people on the TV they would only quote for the current main target group those under 30. The ones already double jabbed should not be included everyday ad infinitum. It makes the numbers look good but is not reporting the crux of the matter. The majority of the cases are within the younger group so more important than ever to focus on the fight back there.

The other thing is that the focus of the multiple notifications from the NHS app does not make the app itself the cause of the problem. It's only doing what it was designed to do. Folk seem to be in denial of the rampant surge of the delta variant through the younger end of the population. It is this that drives the notifications and nothing more.

[Stanley]

"Folk seem to be in denial of the rampant surge of the delta variant through the younger end of the population."
I think you may have put your finger on it Ian. But it's not so much 'folks' as Number Ten Downing Street. They have adopted a unilateral stance taking no notice of any scientific or political advice beyond that which agrees with their view. This is why the Treasury and business interests have prevailed. What is really worrying the government now is the economics of this. They can see the train wreck coming that is September onwards. The science has no bearing on this. It is becoming a matter of political survival.

[plaques]

20% of the UK population are under 18 years of age. Obvious when you think about it. But so far these are outside the vaccination loop except for health reasons. The emphasis is on getting young people into nightclubs where they can buy beer etc: and boost the economy for a week before they bring it crashing down by not being able to go to work or stopping others from going to work. Who would have thought of that? Not the Buffoon apparently.

[PanBiker]

Three weeks from "freedom" has been the cycle in the other countries that have tried this approach and failed. First week in August when the chickens come home to roost here or the shit hits the fan, take your pick.

[Tizer]

Israel made a really good start and has high uptake of the vaccine but it has already been through the cycle and then had to back track and re-impose masks etc. See this from 25 June...
`Coronavirus: Israel reimposes masks amid new virus fears' LINK
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I heard Sir Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Foundation, on the radio this morning. I usually regard him as someone worth listening to but this morning I had to disagree when he said that wearing a mask only protects other people from your virus and doesn't stop you getting it yourself from someone else. The masks may not be perfect but I'm sure they cut my chance of catching the Covid-19 virus enough to make it worth the hassle wearing one. They may not protect you if you spend all day cooped up in a small office with someone else who is infected but for most situations, such as going in and out of shops, they will help. The virologists went to great lengths to tell us at the start of the pandemic that this virus is transmitted in large droplets and so a mask is bound to help. What Farrar (and others) have said about masks not protecting us from other people's exhaled droplets will only undermine all the good work to get people to wear masks.

[Stanley]

I agree with you Peter. Masks are very inefficient but they are an improvement on no protection at all. More important, the mask signals to others you are still serious about protection and may influence them. I wear gloves to the supermarket as well.....

[PanBiker]

The main reason for wearing a mask is to protect others from yourself, if everyone else reciprocates you are fine and inherit the benefit yourself. You need a full blown pro surgical filtered job to give maximum protection to yourself.

[Whyperion]

Tizer I thought the problem was masks are useful because C19 comes in areosols not droplets. (a distinction to me that has a science specificness that I think in reality has little impact on spreading overall, and why should flu virus only be in droplets that land on surfaces ?)

[Tizer]

There's still a lot of confusion and uncertainty about the degree to which transmission is by aerosol or by droplets. All viruses will be part aerosol, part droplet and much depends on the circumstances. Wearing a mask is a bit like vaccination - it's not 100% effective but it does lower the risk, for very little expenditure and inconvenience.

[Big Kev]

Hopefully this is a trend that will continue. New UK Covid case numbers fall for the third day in a row.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk- ... s-12362216

[Tripps]

That's good to see, and it's a week since Professor Ferguson predicted a rise from the then current figure of 54,000 to 100,000. Interesting to see that he continues to be wrong about nearly everything.

We now have a vaccine which doesn't prevent getting infected, but it is said to makes it milder. Piers Morgan says he has the virus despite two injections and it's the worst he has felt in his life. Better than dying I suppose. Though in his case not all would agree.

I bravely ventured out to Aldi on Thursday evening. First shop since March 2020. I went at 8.30 pm and as planned it was almost empty. Not sure what to expect so I wore a mask, though along with Professor Doctor Van Tam, I don't believe they have any effect. Seemed to be the polite option.

In contrast to the panic messages in the press -there was plenty of everything on the shelves, and I was pleasantly surprised to see all cheaper than I've been paying on the web. No empty shelves anywhere. Only problem was my card didn't work at the checkout - so being a belt and braces type - I paid cash.

Went to the cash machine last night and checked I had my pin right - I did - so I went back to Aldi and topped up. All went well with the card, and I'm probably stocked up Ok till Christmas now.

[Stanley]

Xmas. Only 152 days to go David.
I've shopped early doors ever since the pandemic started. If you go as soon as they have opened I think it's fairly safe. Always wear gloves in there..... I usually have my shed gloves on anyway so that bit's easy.
I think a lot of people will be watching the Covid stats very carefully this week!

[plaques]

I think a lot of people will be watching the Covid stats very carefully this week!

The Buffoon from No10 Clowning St has made it almost impossible to interpret future stats other than deaths. Even if Freedom day is taken as a base there are loads of 'ifs and buts' getting in the way of any analysis. How many are switching the NHS app off? Totally ignoring it. Not reporting an infection to get back to work quicker. Encouraged by employers to 'just keep away from others'. Exempt Key workers. Then holiday makers returning from 'safe countries'.
No doubt at the end of 2023 there will be a review to to if we could have handled it better.

[Tizer]

The Covax scheme was set up to provide vaccines everywhere worldwide. Now `a Covax Marketplace has been launched - a secure platform that will allow manufacturers and suppliers to buy and sell products in one place, helping to increase the visibility of what's available when. It will initially focus on six categories of supplies: bioreactor bags, single use assemblies, filters, cell cultures, lipids, glass vials, and stoppers.' This had to be done because we've run up against serious shortages of such materials and products...
`Covid vaccines: Why a giant plastic bag shortage is slowing the rollout' LINK