Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Cathy]

Sending you both cyber hugs

[PanBiker]

Has anyone else noticed that the media (BBC at least) have downgraded the infection in our country to an epidemic. They shove a caveat on the end to say that there is still a global pandemic though.

[Stanley]

I think he's shy Cathy.....
I know someone who has developed an auto immune disease, Sarcoidosis and I am wondering whether it could have been triggered by the vaccination.

[plaques]

Sending you both cyber hugs

I think he's shy Cathy.....

i will accept hugs and cuddles from young ladies anytime Thank You Cathy. But there are standards to maintain and its not that I'm a professional footballer or ballet dancer.

[Cathy]

Plaques... Sportsmen definitely not!
But maybe the Patrick Swayze type. Mmmm.
( He was trained in classical ballet. Ooh la la . Remember him in Dirty Dancing?)
Calm now ladies.

[plaques]

Here we go again. Boris Johnson showing concern about the spread of the 'Indian' variant in some areas of the UK.

B1617.2 was designated as a variant of concern a week ago, and two weeks ago there were 202 cases. Scientists believe the variant could be more transmissible than the Kent variant, but that it will also not be resistant to vaccines.

If this report is correct prepare for hundreds of more deaths and a two weeks delay before we do anything. After all the enquiry doesn't start until spring 2022. then add another 6 months. Plenty of time to forget the whole business.

[Stanley]

Ken, you're right, the raising of the matter of the enquiry by Johnson was actually a ploy to avert criticism by coming up with some vaguely definite proposals (Which can of course suffer a delay due to pressure of business.). This all sounds positive but is, in effect, kicking the can down the road. A report would be, at the earliest, towards the end of 2022. In political terms that's a long time away. There is also the fact that we can't really expect a government marking its own homework to come up with any radical conclusions. Neatly sorted.... nice one PM.

[plaques]

With my 'one foot in the grave' hat on, this morning reading the 'Indian' variant news Sky Link Its full of mixed messages written by a bunch of Glass threequarters full politicians.

Yes it could be up to 50% more transmissible but its not looking to be of a severity to overload the hospitals.

Where have these people been getting their facts from. Somehow they've missed that India is full of the 'India' variant and that people are dying like flies never even getting into hospital. But at the moment keep calm and carry on with the next stage of opening.

Please yourself on what you do but I'll wait and see before I believe Boris.

[Big Kev]

I think we're in a much better position than India just based on our current vaccine situation.

[chinatyke]

Where have these people been getting their facts from. Somehow they've missed that India is full of the 'India' variant and that people are dying like flies never even getting into hospital.

India is reporting up to 400,000 new cases per day with "only" 4000 deaths, or 1%. Is this "dying like flies" ? 1% death rate is less than the NHS had (2.9%) and less than the WHO expected mortality rate of 3.4%. There's just such a lot of flies in India.

[Stanley]

Well done China, Private eye made exactly the same point this week. 17 per 100,000 in India, 129 per 100,000 in UK. Even allowing for possible under reporting in India it's a telling figure.

[Big Kev]

I've not dug into any evidence for this but Hancock is quoted as saying "people who are ending up in hospital in Bolton with this new variant are largely people who are eligible for the vaccine but haven't taken the vaccine".

[plaques]

plaques wrote: ↑15 May 2021, 08:51

Where have these people been getting their facts from. Somehow they've missed that India is full of the 'India' variant and that people are dying like flies never even getting into hospital.

India is reporting up to 400,000 new cases per day with "only" 4000 deaths, or 1%. Is this "dying like flies" ? 1% death rate is less than the NHS had (2.9%) and less than the WHO expected mortality rate of 3.4%. There's just such a lot of flies in India.

I suppose those in India are pleased its ONLY 4000 deaths. I would serious doubt the statistics. If someone dies without being medically registered as being from covid are they included in the count.?

Locally Blackburn and Bolton are showing increased cases of the Indian variant with numbers increasing from a couple of dozen to a couple of hundred in two weeks. Normally we would be talking about exponential rates for in excess of the R =1 that holds expansion static. We get round this little local anomaly by looking at national rates and coming to the conclusion that overall things are improving and numbers are going down. Carry on as usual, ignore it and like the grin on the Cheshire cat it will fade away.
The NHS is doing a fantastic job of getting the vaccines into people and Johnson is riding high on their success so as far as he is concerned forget about tomorrows problems we'll find out about these in two years time.

[PanBiker]

The NHS is doing a fantastic job of getting the vaccines into people and Johnson is riding high on their success so as far as he is concerned forget about tomorrows problems we'll find out about these in two years time.

Johnson failed to shut the borders on travellers from India in a timely manner, by about a fortnight which allowed the outbreak to take hold. I think we will get the down side of this a lot quicker than a couple of years Ken. Press on regardless with relaxing the rules and welcome to seconds away round 3 by the middle of summer. The knock on effect though will be for a lot longer than two years. All this travelling about nonsense should not have been allowed. We are an island of course so it should have been easy, close the bloody borders.

[Stanley]

I am not an expert but we have been having some very mixed messages about the danger posed by the Indian variant. I get the feeling Johnson daren't take back his promise about more freedom. I fear we may yet have a lot to learn about pandemic management.
I shan't be changing my behaviour at all, I shall still avoid people as much as possible. It would perhaps be better if others did the same thing.

[Tizer]

Most of the relevant scientists agree with you.

[Big Kev]

Sadly the government are relying on the common sense of the average Daily Mail reader, I personally will continue to do what I've been doing for the past 14 months. The only exception I've made is to install the track and trace app on my phone, we'll see how that goes.

[Stanley]

I did hear one report yesterday that referred to the latest infection figures and they were up on last week by 77% but of course that is meaningless if we don't know the base it is calculated from.

[Whyperion]

Just been listening to Sir Jeremy Farrar - Director of The Wellcome Trust and one of the experts advising the government talking eminent good sense and recommending that instead of slagging the EU off we should send some vaccines to the most badly served in Europe by their own leaders. It calls for statesmanship. Question is, do we have any of that?

Time changes, the EU has sourced doses where the rate of vaccine has increased compared to the UK. The big problem for the world is reliance, at present, on India for production of Vaccine (as we relied on China for PPE). While additional capacity is coming on , its not at the rate of need.

So we have the problem, as before, do the vulnerable, worldwide, do an area (City in UK , or all of the UK first ), omit teenagers and children (yet the Coronavirus seems to give long and/or unusual issues, and the teens and twenties are an age range that are some of the economically active (and challenged) in pandemic times, so getting them out of that is also needed, and if they live with other persons there is still spread. Present UK rates being via Indian imports reflects that we locked down to control spread - which worked - over time , yet allowing travel (even if persons were supposed to isolate on return), drives case numbers and the spread and hospitalisations again. Will , by September, case rates be back to 5000 a day as people come back from travel mixing ( even if a Spanish beach is not an Indian Close contact religious festival) Present UK vaccine numbers for first doses are a trickle and probably insufficient to prevent a case number rise, is bringing back the 2nd does to 8weeks rather than 12 actually effective?

I do note that Hancock was actually angry on presentation that in Bolton, etc, (most-he did not admit a couple of apparent vaccine failures), the cases and hospitalisations identified were (of an age only?) people whom had been offered a vaccine does or two, and had not taken up that offer. (wonder if the texts or GP phone call records exist to back that up, rather than them being more recent arrivals)

[Whyperion]

Sadly the government are relying on the common sense of the average Daily Mail reader,

Did you notice yesterdays headline, looks like someone in Govt has finally got to the Daily Mail, getting them to effectively say its your patriotic duty to get Vaccinated and anti-vaxers are effectively undertaking anti-social behaviour. Maybe one time when flag wrapping the vaccines might work ( personal caveat on the blood clot effects still waiting on science that those can be avoided or monitored)

[Whyperion]

The NHS is doing a fantastic job of getting the vaccines into people and Johnson is riding high on their success so as far as he is concerned forget about tomorrows problems we'll find out about these in two years time.

Johnson failed to shut the borders on travellers from India in a timely manner, by about a fortnight which allowed the outbreak to take hold. I think we will get the down side of this a lot quicker than a couple of years Ken. Press on regardless with relaxing the rules and welcome to seconds away round 3 by the middle of summer. The knock on effect though will be for a lot longer than two years. All this travelling about nonsense should not have been allowed. We are an island of course so it should have been easy, close the bloody borders.

Was not Johnson saying that the 2 week delay could not have been a problem for England, as Scotland didnt close till the later date ?
Arrivals were supposed to isolate anyway.
Variant probably not much more transmissable, just once it gets into a community, that community tend to still mix together (similar to the South Wales Valleys Terraced communities with plain covid).
Indian rates etc even if low, did no one figure that a small percentage x a very high absolute number gives a hell of a lot of potentially infected persons ? Presumably the British Thinking WAS influenced by trade talks etc going on ?
Why was that policewoman not wearing the mask correctly over the nose ?

[Whyperion]

[quote=chinatyke wrote: ↑Sun May 16, 2021 1:00 am
plaques wrote: ↑15 May 2021, 08:51]

Where have these people been getting their facts from. Somehow they've missed that India is full of the 'India' variant and that people are dying like flies never even getting into hospital.

India is reporting up to 400,000 new cases per day with "only" 4000 deaths, or 1%. Is this "dying like flies" ? 1% death rate is less than the NHS had (2.9%) and less than the WHO expected mortality rate of 3.4%. There's just such a lot of flies in India. [/quote]
A lot of Flies indeed, but many young(er) ones. So an age adjusted rate is needed. I suspect a lot of folk are not even making it to hospital, plus its going to knock on the rest of the healthcare (patchy at best) in India. Also the spread as has not really started, its mostly in cities though folk will start taking back to villages. The travel line appears mostly around the religious festivals (the same kinds of gatherings that drove spread in USA). India I dont think has massive cold store food manfacture and distribtution so viruses surviving in colder work locations dont really happen, and a lot of day to day trade is in the open air, not air-con offices, one advantage of living in mud huts in some places is the airflow !

[Whyperion]

The obvious plan is to invest in vaccine manufacture and give away billions of doses as fast as possible. It will be cheaper in the long run than dealing with a third wave.
Will someone please inform the capitalists and hedge funds?

Anyone noted that the locations chosen for the mass production sites (even in europe) are in low cost low wage countries ?

[Whyperion]

Wendy posted a few weeks ago that her son was a 'mouth breather' and may have escaped the outbreak in his works for this reason. Colds tend to make you breath through your mouth simply because the nose is blocked. Are the experts making this a bit too technical?

While I would have thought coronavirus targets the type of cell in the nasal passage, clinging on in the inhale part, maybe in the throat and passage to the lungs the greater exhale through the mouth might expel virus before it can latch on. Are we not taught good breathing is in through the nose and out through the mouth ( for oxygen / CO2 balance ).

Any further research on this or notes from the old common cold centre on differences done ?

[Whyperion]

More disturbing news on the after affects of being hospitalised by the covid virus. A study of 48,000 ex-covid patients showed that almost a third were back in hospital within 140 days and that 1 in 8 (12.5%) had died. Link

After an average follow-up time of 140 days, nearly a third of the Covid patients who had been discharged from hospital had been readmitted and about one in eight had died, rates considerably higher than seen in the control group.

Of course elderly people with multiple underlying health issues may finish up in hospital or even dying so should we now be assembling an 'excess' death rate measurement for this group of people.

Doesn't really say what they died of. Problem throughout, and even post '2nd Wave' was /is people in hospital being sent out (even to nursing homes spreading the disease again). Targets to reduce numbers in hospital were not effective if no cure as such effective at discharge. It might be some of the re-admissions apply to 'long covid' effects of fatigue, but they are not much known of in older persons - perhaps the die before anything is noticed.