POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Morning Rossy! Nice to see you popping in. Yes, fishing, like everything else, is not quite as Mr Johnson and Mr Gove said it would be. (They say it's teething problems.)
"Somehow we've landed ourselves with a right bunch of dunce noddies in our government! "
We did it by so badly managing the education of ordinary people that they can't tell the difference between the genuine article and a political spiv. They still believe in the £350million a week promise. Poor saps. Problem is though that they drag us down with them.

[plaques]

I listen to “More or Less “ on Radio 4.. If you haven’t heard it, it’s a brilliant programme about statistics. Today they discussed our fishing rights. Our stake has improved by just under4 %.

As you say an excellent programme championed by Tizer. The last minutes from around 23 minutes exposes those two slippery fish Morduant and Gove. I liked the sea shanty at the end.

[Tizer]

And don't miss Tim Harford's other Radio 4 programme `How to Vaccinate the World' LINK

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC article on Johnson's call to Biden. I think the PM has a photographer on permanent duty now, always with him. Could this be true?

[Tizer]

See THIS BBC article on Johnson's call to Biden. I think the PM has a photographer on permanent duty now, always with him. Could this be true?

He doesn't need a photographer, everyone around him has a smartphone camera and even when he's alone he can easily set up a selfie.

Some headline articles in the papers today. Just another boring day in Britain!
`Grant Shapps faces fury over mass Covid outbreak at DVLA' Guardian
`Ministers are at the centre of an explosive row over their failure to protect workers from Covid-19 as the Observer reveals the largest workplace outbreak of the virus has taken place at a top government organisation. More than 500 cases have been recorded at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency’s offices in Swansea, where employees claim people with symptoms were encouraged to return to work while vulnerable workers have had requests to work from home turned down...'.

`Move to EU to avoid Brexit costs, firms told Exporters advised by Department for International Trade officials to form EU-based companies to circumvent border issues' Guardian
`British businesses that export to the continent are being encouraged by government trade advisers to set up separate companies inside the EU in order to get around extra charges, paperwork and taxes resulting from Brexit, the Observer can reveal...'.

`Union in crisis as polls reveal voters want referendum on Scottish independence and united Ireland' Sunday Times
`The UK is facing a constitutional crisis that will strain the Union as new polls reveal a majority of voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland want referendums on the break-up of Britain. A four-country survey we commissioned, based on separate polls in Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales, also found that the sense of British identity that once bound the country together is disintegrating. And in another significant move, the Scottish National Party (SNP) announced that it is prepared to call a wildcat referendum of its own if Boris Johnson refuses to grant one himself — a move that puts the two governments on a constitutional collision course...'.

[Stanley]

I saw the report on the DVLA and infections. Looks like they made the wrong call.
I heard a piece on R4 where a politician was admitting that civil servants giving advice to firms had indeed advised them to set up agencies in Europe.
As for the integrity of the Union. Johnson thinks he can forcibly hold it together by burying his head in the sand. Like many of his other cunning wheezes this is not going to work!
Overall the evidence is mounting on the difference between what the Brexiteers promised and the realities we are facing. This is going to build into a hell of an argument in Parliament.

[Tizer]

I'm glad somebody is raising this issue. I'm not sure about the federal model but something needs to be done to hold us all together, there are too many divisions already...
`Gordon Brown: UK could become 'failed state' without reform' LINK
`The UK must reform how it is governed or risk becoming a "failed state", former Labour prime minister Gordon Brown has warned. Writing in the Daily Telegraph, he says Covid has exposed "tensions" between Whitehall and the nations and regions. Mr Brown urges Prime Minister Boris Johnson to set up a commission to review how the country is run. Polls have suggested rising support for Scottish independence and potentially for a border vote in Northern Ireland. Mr Brown - who advocates a federal system with more power for nations and regions - says the pandemic has "brought to the surface tensions and grievances that have been simmering for years" between Downing Street and the various parts of the UK.

[plaques]

I've been pondering for some time that the Brexit regain our 'Sovereignty' although this is generally meant that our Parliament was now secondary to the European Courts and had no say in the laws was in fact debatable until we withdrew completely. Joining the EU like being part of NATO or WTO meaning we relinquished some rules to them. So if Sovereignty is not about Parliamentary laws what is it really about? The more obvious reason could be that the EU is made up of Republic countries and is heading towards a total single Republic State. If we are really trying to avoid becoming a republic then the sovereignty question is beginning to look like a Monarchy sovereignty ie: reverting back to single control plus all the old hangers on and Boris Johnson type court jesters. Johnson's attempt to prorogue parliament and to bring in measures that have not been discussed in parliament could be an indicator of where we are heading. The results of our fantastic Brexit deal are pointing to a complete shambles with no visible sight of any advantages. With each problem that is uncovered it appears to be the working man and small business that are suffering. As an insurance I would recommend putting the portrait of the Queen and Prince Charles back on the wall.

[Stanley]

What we need now is a totally digital online Parliament with compulsory attendance and voting. It's debatable whether we shall ever get back to the old style of Parliament with all those people confined together.
Time to ditch tradition and come up with something that actually works. It suits Johnson at al to have this half arsed Parliament where they avoid proper scrutiny and major changes are done by prerogative and other non-debating processes.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report on Chris Grayling leading an effort to give hibernating hedgehogs greater protection. All I can say is pity the poor hedgehogs! Given Grayling's reputation this could quite easily be a nail in their collective coffins.
Not on the net yet but the Northern Irish government meets in Belfast this morning to decide what action should be taken in the well publicised problems with abuse and infant mortality that have been revealed in the Magdalene Laundries and the Mother and Baby homes. This tragedy is an enormous hot potato and I am not hopeful that those responsible will ever be punished for what was a terrible episode in history.
Above all, the case of the mothers involved should be publicly recognised and some tangible gesture made to signal the fact their abuse is understood.

[PanBiker]

It's debatable whether we shall ever get back to the old style of Parliament with all those people confined together.

What we need is a new fit for purpose chamber built in the middle of the country. You know my plan for the Victorian Pile to turn it into a money maker. A design that won't allow the uncouth oiks like Rees-Mogg to sprawl about the place.

[Stanley]

I hear on BBC R4 that Mr Johnson is working on a plan to end lockdown and we can expect it 'in the middle of next month'. It's obvious he wants to be able to stand at that podium and sound upbeat and positive. I have news for him. I for one am busy digesting that death toll and I have heard the estimate that it will grow another 50,000 before we reach whatever the goal is, herd immunity by vaccination I suppose. I suggest the PM concentrates on the realities of the present and not pie in the sky estimates based on no evidence at all. He can't even say when the present attack will be over, never mind the possibility of another strain and a different vaccine. I heard one scientist saying yesterday that he doesn't think that's likely, the present formulations can probably be adjusted. But, on the other hand it can't be ruled out. How can you plan in a world of doubt?

[plaques]

I for one am busy digesting that death toll and I have heard the estimate that it will grow another 50,000 before we reach whatever the goal is, herd immunity by vaccination I suppose.

As discussed in Coronavirus Corner the vaccine hasn't been shown to stop the spreading of the virus only to reduce its severity. I would think that the only way to stop it in its tracks is a nationwide testing for the live virus and then quarantine those shown positive.

[Stanley]

You're probably right Ken. I shall stop making guesses.

[Stanley]

Johnson evidently had his speech written down, no bumbling. And the committee which wrote it did good, common sense and no guessing. We need more of that style of politics.

[Tizer]

I'll bet these pig farmers voted for Brexit...
`More than 100,000 British pigs stranded by Brexit border problems: UK farmers blame increased bureaucracy for drop in exports as influx of cheap European meat hits prices' FT
`The UK pig industry has asked the government for help after Brexit-related border problems and an influx of cheap European meat led to more than 100,000 surplus pigs backed up on farms around the country. The National Pig Association wrote to George Eustice, the environment secretary, last week asking him to convene an urgent meeting with processors and retailers in the face of “higher costs, falling prices and a shrinking market”...'.

[Stanley]

There is little doubt that fishing and farming have been sold down the river to get a deal at any price. Note that Nissan at Sunderland are delighted and are going to stay forever while creel fishermen all round the country have no market at all.
The little local difficulties over duty payments which mean that many are paying twice, once in each jurisdiction, is choking off trade even by giants such as Amazon. Cross channel traffic hasn't restarted yet but the facilities in Kent are already at breaking point. As someone once said. "You ain't seen nothing yet!".
Johnson in Scotland denying that he was there because he can see the breaking of the Union is imminent. Sturgeon asking if his journey was necessary. Gove saying that Johnson's personal presence was essential at the cutting edge of government. Really?

[plaques]

Gove saying he has every confidence in Johnson. Is this a preemptive strike or a bit of subliminal advertising? Usually this is the other way round with the unfortunate excellent minister or SPAD leaving No10 with a cardboard box in their arms.

[Tizer]

This episode of the Radio 4 `The Food Programme' is a good explanation of what's going on in fishing...
`All at Sea? Fishing after Brexit' LINK
One of the problems is that much of the UK fish catch is exported to other European countries so the fishing industry gets hit twice over, on quotas and on export tariffs. unfortunately they believed what the Brexiteers promised them.

Listeners to that episode also benefit from hearing the More or Less sea shanty based on an explanation of the calculations underlying the new quota regime!
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This is causing Facebook to be criticised again for censorship, this time because Robinhood Stock Traders have busted a shorting attempt by a big hedge fund and given them massive losses. It's time someone curtailed the hedge funds but when they do Facebook bans them!
`Facebook shuts popular Robinhood Stock Traders group amid GameStop frenzy: Facebook says group, which has 157,000 members, was taken down for allegedly violating policies unrelated to stock price surges ' Guardian

[Stanley]

I heard that Food Programme.... (and the shanty!)
Did Facebook really do that? I don't know what the answer is but something has to be done about controlling social media....
So much of what passes for politics these days is nothing but slick PR and spin to give us 'impressions'. The really serious stuff gets the stock answer, "We are investing £Xbillion in that....".
I'm watching the virus wars in Europe.... Totally wrong of course and the WHO has said so in no uncertain terms. See THIS BBC report on the latest developments with the EU back tracking on breaking Brexit agreements with Ireland.
It's a complete dog's breakfast and I suspect has more to do with internal criticisms in the EU which was slow to invest in the production of the vaccines because of internal arguments about who should be doing it, individual states or Brussels. The EU is lagging behind in getting vaccinations out to the masses and this has triggered this kerfuffle that lays the blame with the production companies. The companies are not happy and who can blame them?

[Tizer]

The bust up between the EU and UK over AstraZeneca's vaccine is getting little objective analysis but lots of noise from the British newspapers. UK ministers (and the papers) are saying that it's the EU's own fault because they left ordering too late. The reason they ordered later than the UK is that they apply a higher level of safety requirement than we did; the UK rushed in and took a risk. Let's hope that our risk-taking doesn't turn into a health crisis and doesn't turn more people into anti-vaxers.

Did Facebook really do that? I don't know what the answer is but something has to be done about controlling social media....

US regulators and some prominent US politicians have come out in support of the Reddit amateur traders. The SEC has warned brokers it will step in if they try to block the Reddit day traders. Senator Sherrod Brown, runs the Senate Banking Committee, plans to hold a hearing on the current state of the US stock market and said: "People on Wall Street only care about the rules when they're the ones getting hurt."

On a different topic, I like this idea but we'll have to be careful that the teaching is objective...
`Push to ensure pupils are 'politically literate'' LINK

[Whyperion]

I would hope that the UK approval of the vaccine was based on the evidence of general safety ( but noted a risk on long-term outcomes taken presumably measured certainly for elderly that risk of a death 12months plus from an iffy unknown reaction better than a death within 6months of a covid infection ). I presume actually as both teams in close working with Govt science teams much info was shared and they do build on a powerbase of 12 years plus university etc level research) I was going to comment on the EU reactions , but others have generally covered it well, other than I might add the EU have a difference of interpretation of their contracts (generally) to how an English Court might read the contract (and come to that Article 19) intention as drawn from the wording.

As to day trading - if its to make a profit I hope the hype from wherever is indeed appropriately regulated (I understand the robinhood app had to borrow to cover the trades , which seems odd I though the point of the app was cheap cost direct purchases of present priced securities, not loans of or trading in a future price - I must have been wrong and if it is to allow anyone to play the same game I think the risk inbuilt in that is probably not a good idea ) If it is to make a point - the purchases less to see the profit / increased profit but to hold equity in companies they care for , then that is something else , nearly worthy though most companies actually own little assets, more the hope of a profitable future income stream.

At school aged 12 we did 'Current Affairs' and in that, and English, were encouraged to debate, to present discussion arguments on many subjects, large and small in political terms , and of course, History teaches much about political alignments , views and decisions. Some schools participate in the likes of CitizensUK events , where the objective is to get all political leaders and parties to back a proposal -be it on street cleaning, housing provision or assessment of teenage mental health or whatever the local community takes as being important.

[Tizer]

Trump has ditched some of his lawyers and the others have ditched him...
`Donald Trump 'parts with lawyers' before impeachment trial' LINK

Have a look at the latest Americast episode too: `We Need to Talk about Kevin'
Is the House GOP leader back to backing Trump? Emily, Jon and Anthony discuss why Kevin McCarthy took a trip to Mar-a-Lago to visit the former president. Meanwhile, the Republican party divide deepens as Congressman Matt Gaetz rallies against his GOP colleague in Wyoming. And we bring you a bumper Americanswer with an A-Level politics class takeover.

Back in Blighty, the wife of the late Jeremy Heywood, cabinet secretary from 2012 to 2018, relates in her book how before the EU Referendum he warned David Cameron that he was `opening a Pandoras's Box of problems he couldn't solve' (reported on front page of today's Telegraph). Top civil service `mandarins' are now saying she shouldn't have put that information out in the public view.

[Stanley]

Anyone who tells the truth about what happened is going to be stepped on by the mandarins. It would never do to be honest and open about events.
I seem to remember us saying at the time that someone must have pointed out the obvious pitfalls but they must have been silenced. Take one example, Richard Broughton and his early identification of Ireland as a big problem. He can't have been the only one but it was never mentioned until late in the process when it became obvious there was a big problem that has turned out to be insoluble. The border is there in the Irish Sea.
It seems to me that everyone in politics is keeping their heads down and hoping for the best as the death toll mounts.

[Stanley]

I think I was about right yesterday, our whole body politic is sitting in the middle of the road like a rabbit caught in powerful headlights. In this case they are the pandemic and the effects Brexit is having on trade. The pandemic has full attention and it's notable that as soon as an anomaly was noted in infections in these areas (LINK) tests were rushed in for 80,000 people to find the extent of the anomaly which is infection by the SA variant with no apparent links to travel.
As for Brexit, as the days go by it becomes obvious that despite all the assurances made by the Brexiteers, certain sections of trade are having severe difficulties which cannot be put down to teething troubles. EU trade is only just getting back into its stride after the Xmas break and we have yet to see what the 'new normal' for cross channel trade is. There are fears that it is going to be much lower in scale and we have yet to see what the effects of this will be. Many vital supplies have been stockpiled and it will be a while before any shortages start to show up.
No wonder the politicians are on the qui vive!