POLITICS CORNER

[Whyperion]

Maybe I am wrong, but the only economic logical outcome I can see if there is a prolonged economic shutdown (and confining the over 70s etc to barracks effectively is to suggest to everyone else they can get back to normal life asap leaving the 'economically inactive anyway' safely holed up), is enforced nationalisation of Rail and Air (industries with high fixed costs and loan committments ). And a take-over of private pension funds at pre-crash levels at least for three years of funding. Johnson is not enforcing leisure venues to close - avoiding commerical insurance payouts that would probably if not bankrupt , would take this years and next profits off the insurance companies ). The illness does flag up that the NHS is unprepared with insufficent supplies and facilities. Looking at who is bed blocking in hospitals a quick and dirty fix remains hire some of the empty hotels, train air-crew in nursing basics and move the older non-oxygen etc dependent persons out into such 'new' care facilities, if the airlines and the hotels meet 30% of the costs then the govt can get it done quickly. The BoE interest rate reductions to near zero have not / will not filter down to personal and business loans still running at 39% down to 4% if you are lucky.
Liz and Phil are holed up at Windsor , Charlie presumably living off Duchy Originals for three months, and Harry has timed his flight to Canada just right - he could be last royal standing or regent for Charlotte !!

[Tizer]

I'm sure Tiz will agree with this, a fine time to be inflicting more economic damage by leaving the EU. It's the elephant in the room now, this is going to have to be addressed as the whole basis for Brexit has unravelled. Someone is going to be brave and stand up and mention this, the sooner the better!

I agree 100%. We've spent nearly 4 years weakening Britain by trying to leave the EU (and weakening the EU at the same time). Now we're facing a dangerous virus pandemic and resemble someone who has had 4 years of debilitating worry and stress, has their immunity weakened, and is now faced with coronavirus.

Watching Johnson, Witty and Vallance at their post-COBRA press meeting yesterday evening I was impressed and pleased to see the two experts presenting their information - yes, the British public might once again recognise the value of experts! Also, I'm very, very pleased that our leader isn't Donald Trump. No matter whether you like Boris or not, he's far better than Trump. I pity the thinking Americans, the ones with brains, who must be extremely worried that they're in this crisis with a tweeting nincompoop at the helm and who thinks only of his `ratings'.

[Whyperion]

I have suggested one use for Manchester Airport, if more do close for a period of time given that they have limited medical centres in them , is there some merit in using one or more as additional hospital facilities.

[Stanley]

I agree entirely Tiz and note that the EU Trade Talks have been postponed indefinitely. It must be blindingly obvious by now that Brexit should be shelved indefinitely. My prediction is that it is not going to happen, least of all in the form Johnson and the ERG envisaged.
Rishi Sunak did a good job and has left everything open ended which is good because there is a chance worst case will be worse than they imagine. However, there were still vague areas. How quickly can cash be got to the bottom of the pile? Think of a minimum wage worker made redundant today facing five weeks wait at least for Universal Credit. Think of the small business owners who have to decide today how many people they sack immediately to survive. I fear that it's the implementation that's going to fail. Also, is a grant actually a loan? Sunak cited some things that are direct non-repayable cash grants, Helicopter Money, but left a lot of areas unclear.
Over the years we have warned repeatedly of 'Events Dear Boy'. We are allowed to be wise before the event, exactly that has happened. Some of us have compared austerity in the aftermath of 2008 to self-inflicted injury and called for a National Government or at least, cross party talks as a matter of course in policy making. Now is the time to look at that again. Instead of sitting like rabbits in the headlights the Opposition Parties should be combining and demanding a say in government. Just exactly what is needed to persuade them that this is indeed a national emergency? Like Brexit, it is a negation of democracy to leave one party in charge of responses no matter how much they prate about 'cross party' contacts.
Perhaps the reason why I am so vehement about this is that unlike any of the present day leaders, I have seen war and what happens. They are right to compare this to WW2, now they need to go further and institute WW2 responses and I don't exclude raising a civilian 'army' that can be equipped and directed to bolster essential services. Think on the lines of the old Civil Defence.
Think the unthinkable! Forget 'normal channels' and hide-bound practices. Be bold and proactive!

[plaques]

The billionaire owners and large international firms will always survive even if it means cutting back bonuses and dividends. Small independent businesses rely on conditions staying normal which obviously they are not going to do. Even if only the vulnerable people start to withdraw from normal lifestyle activities the trickle down effect will soon hit small businesses. From this it goes without saying that knee jerk, must be seen to do something, closing schools, pubs, restaurants, cafes, or restricting travel will guarantee to hit the small man first. By all means lookafter yourself but don't get paranoid and go silly about it.

Looking on the bright side, crumblies that shuffle off this time round will improve the figures for the next round of seasonal flu.

[Stanley]

Very true P! However I have no intention of shuffling off the stage, I have an engine to finish. Be positive, the best defence!
After the budget I said the devil was in the detail and this applies also to the emergency measures. Sunak is coming under pressure as the threadbare parts of his measures become apparent. Chief among these are:- Are small businesses really going to take on massive loans when they can see no end to the problem? Many workers on minimum hours and temporary contracts (And there are a lot of them these days) have no way of benefiting from the present measures. The only advice they have been given is to apply for Universal Credit, which in itself means a five week wait to be processed. Many MPs posing this question to him; "Could you live off £95 a week? (The level of statutory sick pay.)
The markets didn't think much of it, they tanked again yesterday and the Pound is at its lowest level against the US$ since 1985.
Some very detailed naming and shaming in PE of prominent hedge fund beneficiaries who are making millions as share prices tank in which they have extensive 'short' positions. In other words they bet they would fall and are now cashing in. George Osborne is one of them as he is employed by Black Rock, one of the biggest culprits. Not everyone is losing out as industry shuts down. (Jacob Rees Mogg?)
I drew attention the other day to the unexpected fall in the price of gold, generally the haven of last resort. It is becoming obvious that many investors are so short of cash to finance their positions that they are having to cash in secure investments to stay solvent and continue trading. 'Experts' are citing this as an ominous sign and the main difference between this crisis and 2008.
Interesting times.

[Stanley]

Difficult to make out what is happening in the political world at the moment. My impression is that the normal activities of Westminster are in virtual stasis as the government and Civil Service concentrate exclusively on the current situation. One thing that did strike me was the point about stopping votes in the lobbies. For years, more progressive members have agitated for electronic methods of registering a vote but this has been resisted on the grounds of 'tradition'. Phooey! The party in power likes to physically see who the abstainers and rebels are and in the lobby system this is easy. Would it be as easy if the votes were cast electronically? One good outcome when the dust settles could be that this changes to a modern, faster and more efficient system.
The other thing that I see is that under the three podium system of press conferences transparency from the PM has not improved. Too many of his responses are vague and open ended. Even substantive statements like that made by Rishi Sunak are not what they seem. The massive intervention he heralded turns out to be largely loan guarantees which do not address the immediate problems of cash flow at all levels of society, they merely postpone repayment of debt. It's interesting to note that much of the criticism of this is coming from Tory backbenchers.
At root, nothing has changed, the biggest fault I see at the moment is the absence of proper cross-party decisions. It's all very well to talk about 'contacts' and 'discussions' but reading between the lines it appears that these are not effective. We need a more structured method of giving all parties equal weight in decisions. As with Brexit, this is being handled essentially as an internal Tory initiative. This is not good enough and must be changed, the sooner the better!

[Stanley]

Martha has sent me this: 16 March 2020
Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19

If you copy that into a Google Search it opens up the document. It explains the government model for fighting the virus.

[Tripps]

Just from listening to the rqdio - I heard of this report a couple of days ago. I think it was the reason the Government changed course, and rather than the policy of protecting the vulnerable, and letting the fit and healthy become infected, leading to herd immunity, they changed tack. They have now changed from 'mitigation' to 'suppression'. However, they haven't convinced a lot of the population to do what is necessary.

They now say that 20.000 deaths will be a success. I haven't read the report in detail, but I heard that it forecast hundreds of thousands of deaths in absence of any suppression action.

Ironically I read that Professor Neil Ferguson is now infected with the virus.

[Stanley]

It's moving so fast David. I'm listening to The World at One and reading between the lines, the cracks in provision so far are beginning to show and widen under stress. Expect Rishi Sunak to announce unheard of measures this afternoon to try to keep people in work. The basic economics are beginning to become apparent. Mass redundancy, a catastrophic drop in economic activity and unprecedented calls on the social economy are happening now. If something quite astounding isn't done immediately the UK economy will nose dive. The question is, how brave are they?
Just one aspect of what's happening is apparent on flight radar. There is almost no air traffic at all. What is in the air is predominantly private aircraft seemingly flying aimlessly around.

[Tizer]

For some time now there have been forecasts that the number of people unemployed will be twice that of the Great Depression but I don't know how valid the forecasts are.

[Tripps]

I think it's time that party political differences were put aside in some way. Labour should get organised and declare Starmer the leader - he's 1/33 in the betting so looks like someone leaked the result of the vote.

Also the people and media should set aside their hatred of Boris Johnson and the Tories, and their grief at losing the Brexit referendum. There'll be time for all that later.

The whole of California has been put on lock down. That's how bad it is.
So much for 'the land of the free and the home of the brave?

[Tizer]

I agree with you, Tripps. At least Boris and his gang listen to the experts and are communicating day by day. They're doing a great job and we should let them get on with it. Yes, Labour should put Starmer in charge and get on with life. And they should drop Brexit down a deep, dark hole!

[PanBiker]

We should have had a National Government for brexit and this pandemic. Boris is already referring to himself as a war leader, Churchill he is not.

[Stanley]

Churchill, with all his faults, had a clear advantage over Johnson, he had experience, was a scholar and could speak clearly and unambiguously. Johnson can't even string a sentence together.
I agree with all of you about cross party decisions no matter how they do it.
I also agree that Labour's delay in the matter of the leadership is a failure of democracy. They keep urging the Tories do be brave and do the unthinkable but can't do it themselves.
Forget Brexit, it is dead in the water and the Tories know it. Soon they will have to come clean and announce a 'delay'. We will be in such a bad bargaining position by then that the 'delay' will have to be permanent.
As for Sunak's solutions yesterday, too many vague aspirations for me to be convinced that they will do anything concrete. There are massive holes in his safety net. At heart, like a good hedge fund man, he's looking for the least damaging position. That isn't good enough, they're not doing anything for people already in deep shit and there are many of them.

[Tizer]

Trump has been telling porkie pies again...
`Coronavirus and chloroquine: Has its use been approved in US?' LINK
`Chloroquine has not been approved for treating coronavirus. President Trump, at his daily press briefing, claimed that chloroquine had been approved for use in treating the coronavirus by the US Food and Drugs Administration (FDA). That is the body in charge of licensing medicines in America. "We're going to be able to make that drug available almost immediately. And that's where the FDA has been so great. They've gone through the approval process - it's been approved." To be clear, chloroquine has been approved to treat malaria and arthritis. However, the FDA has made it clear this is not the case for treating people with the Covid-19 coronavirus. "There are no FDA-approved therapeutics or drugs to treat, cure or prevent Covid-19." However, the FDA does say that studies are under way to see if chloroquine can be effective in the treatment of Covid-19. It also says it has been directed by Mr Trump to set up a large clinical trial to investigate the drug...'.

[plaques]

I believe three glasses (250 ml per glass) of Mcguigan Merlot will deaden the symptoms of most viral conditions.

[Stanley]

Same applies to single malt whisky P but only a small slug needed.
What struck me yesterday is that there are two major components to the present situation, the pandemic and the economic affects. I think it's important to realise this and keep them separate in our minds.
I have no problems with the way action is being taken on the pandemic and no criticism of the science behind it. Despite flying blind in many ways, the experts are being consulted and their advice acted on which is a refreshing change. Mind you, it's funny isn't it that bad political management of the NHS for over twenty years has got us to a stage where there aren't enough beds or staff to deal with a normal winter flu event let alone Covid19. Some rethinking needed?
The economic effects are a different matter. For years we have railed against to actions of the Lords of the Universe and how they have managed the financial world. If you had a personal adviser who guaranteed a melt-down every so often (and now it looks like every ten years) and ran the system on phantom money, ie. debt while skimming off a big percentage for themselves, you'd sack them immediately. In effect this is what they have done. We find now that the miracles of global trade, JIT policies, ignoring the effects of possible instabilities and sheer selfishness and greed have produced a system which is not resilient and rewards gamblers like the hedge funds with 'short' positions.
Behind this is the spectre of bad or non-existent regulation by government. It suited their interests to let the Lords run riot as long as they were kicking back 'good statistics' and political funding via the lobbying industry.
We learned the dangers of this in the 1930s and took effective steps to fix the situation. Those measures largely worked and enabled us to finance defence in WW2 but as soon as that danger was past we relaxed and let the monetarists of the Chicago School loose with what in hindsight was the inevitable result, the 2008 credit crisis. What did government do then? Bail out the rotten system, forget to punish the ringleaders and put the fox in charge of the hen coop again with dilatory regulation. Result? another even more serious crisis in 2019.
They say that every cloud has a silver lining. The only good thing I can see at the moment is that collectively, world governments might make some moves towards regulating and improving what is quite obviously a broken system. Take just one aspect of it, there is more debt swilling round the system now than there was in 2008 which was bad enough. How could we allow that to happen?
I shan't go on. All we can do is hope that 'lessons will be learned' but how often have we heard those weasel words.
One last thought. The people who are going to suffer are the ones at the bottom of the pile. The hedge fund gamblers will buy another private island retreat. We are going to see deprivation and poverty on a massive scale.

[Stanley]

There is no Politics. Covid19 has trumped everything, and I really mean everything.

[plaques]

There is no Politics. Covid19 has trumped everything Not true Stanley. Covid-19 is now total politics, but played on an international level. We have been told that one of effects of climate change will be mass migrations of people. Perhaps we are see the first steps to prevent global movement and the introduction of draconian laws to contain people. Remember Hitler took advantage of emergency powers to take control of Germany.

[Stanley]

I agree P and am aware of what you allude to, I have had the same thoughts (surprise surprise) but decided not to bang on about it as there is plenty of negative news about at the moment and not the time for dark personal thoughts and opinions.

[Stanley]

THIS Guardian report on Trump's latest nonsense is excoriating and rightly so.
"Due to social distancing, there were only two dozen or so reporters in the White House press briefing room on Monday, making it feel like a flight with numerous empty seats and lots of legroom.
But when Donald Trump let rip for nearly two hours, it was as if the captain had announced a sudden whim to land the plane on water while wearing a blindfold. We sat tight for an unnerving journey.
On a day that a hundred American deaths were reported, the US president made clear his intention to reopen the country for business much sooner than expected and, seemingly, sooner than medical experts believe to be safe. Everything we know about him suggests this impulse has been guided by Fox News, the Wall Street Journal, the stock market, poll numbers, the imminent election and pure gut instinct. Not science.
To watch Trump talk himself into this rash action in real time from a seat 30 feet (10 metres) away was to witness the awesome and terrifying power of the American president over life and death. It is a solemn burden that he, the first White House occupant with no prior political or military experience, is uniquely unqualified to bear.

[PanBiker]

Aye, when questioned about this he replied that he held a different view to the scientists! At the same time his population are buying more guns which of course will make them immune from infection. Why am I reminded of Dennis? "Being handed a sword by some watery bint does not give you supreme executive power".

[plaques]

The Senate is struggling to get the $2tn stimulus funding through the house. The Republicans are pushing for money to to go to businesses to keep the workers employed. The Democrats want a bigger proportion to go to people at the bottom of the heap who are already suffering. In essence Democrats see it as a slush fund for big business with little financial control. Knowing the Republicans and Trump they are probably right.

Democrats have for the second straight day blocked an almost $2tn economic stimulus package, insisting the legislation should include more stringent limits on how big businesses use coronavirus rescue funds. 

[Tizer]

Trump has fallen out with what was his beloved Fox News and they've fallen out with him.I

I've posted more in the Covid thread from a BBC article about the current dispute between China and the US but it could equally have gone here. It's more than just the virus and refers to dangerous escalation between the two powers and the prediction that the US will suffer a `Suez moment'. LINK