POLITICS CORNER

[Sue]

Gave up listening to Brexit months ago. Nigel and his gang waving their flags in Europe this week were an embarrassment.I shall continue my life as if we are in Europe until something stops me doing so, though that won’t help economy etc.

[Stanley]

What a sensible woman you are! You're right, that's all we can do.

[Big Kev]

I shall continue my life as if we are in Europe until something stops me doing so,

Me too, European holiday booked for the summer

[plaques]

Having left the straight jacket of the EU we will be casting round for symbols to put the 'Great' back into Britain. HS2 springs to mind. I doubt if Johnson can come up with any policies that will lead us into the promised land but just think in 2045 we will have HS2 even if it bankrupts us.

[Stanley]

That soon???

[Tizer]

All the efforts of the eurosceptics, the Daily Mail, Express and Sun, didn't get us to where we are today. They've been putting out false news about the EU for decades without forcing us out. The big game changer has been social media which has made the spread of false news and misinformation so very much easier and cheaper. That misinformation continues and I heard one of the Brexiteers' favourite claims on the radio this morning - that in trade terms the EU needs us as much or more than we need them. This is untrue but if you say so the Brexiteer then defends his claim by stating that the EU exports more to us than we do to them. This is true. We export about £220 billion a year to them, they export about £290 billion to the UK. But the critical facts, which the Brexiteer doesn't mention, is that £220b we sell them represents 44% of our exports, whereas the £290b they sell to us is only about 7% of theirs. Post-Brexit the EU has to replace 7% of its exports while we have to replace 44%. Brexit is a much bigger penalty for the UK than it is for the EU (about 6 times bigger). [This is based on a post I made here a year ago, with more details and references: LINK ]

[Big Kev]

That soon???

I'm not holding my breath...

[Stanley]

I think you are wise Kev. The commitment to the 'Red Wall constituencies will be as big a false promise as '£350million a week'.
You're right as well Tiz. Apart from my old beef about turning our backs on international cooperation, the Brexiteers tell us the obvious lie that we are better trading alone than as part of a bloc of what would have been 28 countries that could rival China and the US. Then of course there is the hit to UK credibility in the last five years.....
In the 1940s Roosevelt was on the verge of proposing an Act of Union with the UK but drew back at the last minute. Trump is after the same thing but by different methods. That's one of the dangers now. The EU is as big a threat to US hegemony as China and the other emerging nations.
Behind all the politics I am convinced that there is another force, hidden but potent. It's the project to steer us back to the 19th century when capital was supreme and the lower orders were firmly in check. If this means shrinking the UK economy that's all right because the calculation is that there will still be enough to go round for the top ten percent. This is very old fashioned thinking these days but stand back and look at the evidence. The Project has been going well since 2010 and with the possibility of No Deal at the end of this year, who would you say has won this phase?
Don't just put this down as a old fart's fantasy, look at the evidence! (No wonder the ERG has gone quiet..... They are on the brink of bringing off a Very British Coup.)

[Stanley]

A bit of information about the trade negotiations slips out.
The first thing that struck me was Farage's language in the Big Bong celebrations, he talked about 'winning the war'. Not a good start!
This morning we get a whiff of the PM being annoyed at the tone of statements coming out of the EU. You've all heard them so no point reiterating what they have said. What's significant to me is how Johnson has reacted. He is being very aggressive and is basically making the same mistake that T May made right at the beginning when she said she was going to be difficult. Johnson starts from the point that this is a negotiation between equals whereas the EU sees it as one between 27 sovereign nations and one maverick. (That's an over simplification but is broadly where we are.)
It looks as though the EU is quite aware that they hold all the cards, already they are saying that it will be at least a month before proper negotiations can start. They will immediately be accused of running the clock down but I think they are being realistic. It ain't going to be easy!

[plaques]

Trade deals with the EU is getting complicated, if fact too complicated for for ordinary mortals to understand never mind the subspecies of human MPs that is now running the country. By the end of June the EU will assess whether the talks are progressing at a rate that completion can be achieved by the end of the year. If not the UK will have to ask for an extension to complete the talks. The big problem is that the withdrawal bill as it stands has a clause that stops any extension. This part of the bill would have to be amended by another vote through parliament. Something that Boris says he won't do. This being the case as things stand the end of June is the crunch time when everything could go belly up.

[PanBiker]

Farage, who must be the most insignificant bloke in the universe now says that the EU are more scared of us than we are of them, right.

[Tizer]

Britain has now joined those other nations whose leader suffers from delusions of grandeur.... Cat and Lion

[Tripps]

Farage, who must be the most insignificant bloke in the universe

That's a bit harsh? Where does that leave Jeremy Corbyn? - Childish Yah Boo 's . . . . .

I've just listened to him for two hours on his regular LBC sunday morning show. I must say I was not impressed that he seemed not to know the difference between adding chlorine and fluoride to public water supplies.

[PanBiker]

I stand by my assessment and statement.

[Tizer]

I hope those who celebrated the Brexit signing on Friday realise that if it turns out to be bad decision and they eventually want to go back in to the EU the only way will be for the UK to sign Article 49. And that means we would have to join the Eurozone and we would not get the rebate that Thatcher secured for us.

[Stanley]

Everything this year points to Johnson coming under increasing pressure to fulfil election promises. He can't do that and he knows it. However, there is one promise he can keep and that is no extension. For this reason my money is on No Deal at the end of the year. No problem because that is what the Project was all about. Farage and the ERG will be sat there grinning, they will win. After that the Deluge!

[Tizer]

You'll remember Boris Johnson said in December there would not be any checks for goods travelling from Northern Ireland to Great Britain under his Brexit deal. He said then that a leaked Treasury analysis document was `wrong' to suggest this would be the case. And now? We were right not to believe him...
`Ports plan for Brexit Irish Sea checks'
`The biggest operator of ferries in the Irish Sea has confirmed that there will be checks, inspections and some new infrastructure for trade, and it wants to know what the government will pay for. The plans will affect both trade with the Republic of Ireland and within the UK between Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as a result of Brexit. Stena Line said that its working assumption was that new checks would be carried out in British ports. Stena boss Ian Hampton told the BBC that though a managed exit was "positive" and the extent of new procedures could be lessened with a strong deal, "there's a border, and the border requires checks". The border will be down the Irish sea, he said. And while his company won't be doing them, it will have to provide room for officials to do the checks, he said. As well as operating a fleet of ferries connecting Great Britain to the island of Ireland, Stena also owns three ports on the route, and wants to know the physical changes required on what has, until now, been seamless trade..'.

[Stanley]

R4 did a programme yesterday morning with a fright forwarder on the Irish crossing. He says it is the end of his business and has his house up for sale. I heard the Stena report as well. There are gong to be lots more stories like this.
Johnson did his jingo speech yesterday instead of laying out our approach to negotiations. He will find that he can't fool all the people all the time. As usual, the EU have stated a clear position, made it public and sent it out to the 27 for approval. Contrast and compare.

[plaques]

Johnson has made a big play of having something like the Australian Trade deal. The main problem with this is that Australia doesn't have a trade deal. Currently they have some technical understanding but the rest is WTO rules, They have yet to agree a full trade deal. Generally speaking they are hoping for free trade on some specific items and WTO on the rest. Johnson is trying to piggyback on this approach by getting selected free trade deals with the EU and then negotiate with other countries to fill in the rest. He can then claim WE will not face a cliff edge WTO situation but gradual Free Trade deals. Why do I get the impression that I'm not part of the WE in this process or am I being too realistic.

[Tizer]

`COP26: Sacked president accuses Boris Johnson of leadership failure' LINK
Note this bit: `She also said Mr Johnson had "admitted" to her that "he doesn't really understand" climate change. "He 'doesn't really get it', I think is what he said," she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.'
This too: `Downing Street has yet to respond to the comments. Reporters attending the launch event have been told they cannot ask questions.' A similar problem elsewhere: `Political journalists boycott No 10 briefing after reporter ban. Journalists in Downing Street walk out after Johnson aide tries to exclude some reporters.' Guardian Just like Trump and the White House.

[Stanley]

I'm not part of the 'we' either P. The track record of the new Johnson administration so far is that they are beginning to realise the scale of the problems they face. Johnson's 'Golden Dawn' is beginning to look like very nasty weather!
The sacked COP lady struck me as a good witness. She could hardly have pointed the finger more directly and I thank her for it, that took courage! Then there is the comment from the car industry and others on the latest announcements about banning all but electric and hydrogen powered vehicles, 'An aspiration without a plan'. Quite.
Then there are the gaffs, the one about banning members of the press is just the latest one. It isn't even clear whether we have a negotiating team in place and we are almost into March.
I see some very stormy waters ahead for this lot.
On a parallel note, isn't it funny how so much of the much vilified Labour Manifesto has been adopted by them.
The next black cloud is the decision on HS2. I foresee cut backs and howls of outrage from the Red Wall.
Later... News that Johnson offered Cameron the role of chairman of COP. DC had the sense to refuse....

[Stanley]

Later... Jeremy Hunt says that the NHS should learn from its mistakes. True, but what about the government's mistakes? Successive 'rescue plans' and 'reorganisations' have created havoc. Good example of brass neck.

[plaques]

Then there is the comment from the car industry and others on the latest announcements about banning all but electric and hydrogen powered vehicles, 'An aspiration without a plan'. Quite.

If I'm still hear in 15 years time I will be all electric. They call them mobility scooters. Perhaps this is what Johnson means.
Then there's the one about we will be flying in commercial size electric aeroplanes in two years time. The group that is trying to develop them say it will be at least 10 years.
Fantastic Trade deals, Mighty aspirations, Symbols of high tech UK, Put the Great back into little Britain. Looks like Johnson is searching for the mythical Confidence Fairy.

[Stanley]

Remind you of anyone?

[Tizer]

The car manufacturers have known for decades that they'd have to go electric because of climate change but they now they get upset because they're given only 15 years.