POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

It won't be long David. The 'Boris Bounce' is petering out as the realities of the situation gradually become clear and none of them look good. Johnson's artificial enthusiasm isn't working for those of us of moderate intelligence who observe and make our own minds up.
Of course we could be wrong and he could be right.....
Later... Interesting to hear that Johnson is telling the world not to write the UK off as a major player on the world stage. This betrays the fact that even he can see that we are on the verge of becoming irrelevant.
I have argued for years that it is counter productive to carry on 'punching above our weight'. It has cost us hundreds of billions which could have been better used in modernising our society and economy. Think of nuclear capability, ridiculously expensive aircraft and White Elephants shaped like aircraft carriers. Then think about austerity, the NHS and the state of our infrastructure. Then for a bonus consider the different policies pursued by some of the Scandinavian countries. Norway in particular didn't squander their North Sea Bonus on misplaced political policies but created the biggest national investment fund in the world.

[Stanley]

How nice to have the G7 summit at a holiday resort. Trump sets the tone by tweeting against France on his way in and Johnson starts the conference with a slanging match with Donald Tusk. Macron, as host, indicates that there is not much point in thinking about a final communiqué as there will be no agreement.
Trump is targeting Johnson, they are going to have talks about trade and Trump will tell him that No Deal is the right decision.
Did I read correctly that Jeremy Corbyn is on holiday in Ghana?
SNP is stepping up pressure to scotch no deal but is anyone listening?
We slide towards the cliff edge with an absent administration, they are all on holiday.

[Tizer]

Corbyn was supposed to be going on a `fact finding tour' of Ghana but it got cancelled so he could be here for discussions on preventing a no deal Brexit. (Somebody should tell him there are more facts about Ghana than he'll ever need on Wikipedia!)

`Is the US still Asia's only military superpower?' By Jonathan Marcus Defence and diplomatic correspondent LINK
`...the Sydney University report questions whether Washington is sufficiently focused on the task in hand. It says that "an outdated superpower mindset in the (US) foreign policy establishment is likely to limit Washington's ability to scale back other global commitments or to make the strategic trade-offs required to succeed in the Indo-Pacific." Money is going into new weaponry and research. But the task is huge. "America has an atrophying force that is not sufficiently ready, equipped or postured for great power competition" and the report warns that a back-log of simultaneous modernisation priorities "will likely outstrip its budget capacity." It is a sobering document written by a prestigious institution from one of Washington's closest allies in the region...'.

[Stanley]

And privately Trump is getting worried about the US finances. He knows as well as anyone else that they are on a knife edge. That's why he has been pushing for an interest rate cut. He doesn't want trouble taking the shine off next year's election. That's why he needs a trade deal with the UK.
66 days until Brexit. I see that Number Ten has rejected the idea of a 'count down clock'. Seen as too 'stressful'.

[Tizer]

This man's getting more dangerous every day - he doesn't seem to care if he causes radioactive fallout around the world...
`Nuclear weapons and hurricanes don't mix, NOAA advises' LINK

[Stanley]

Yes, I heard that but he isn't the first....
I was reflecting on how well Macron has managed this G7 meeting. I have a sneaky idea that he and Angela Merkel got together and did a bit of plotting beforehand. Only a feeling but it fits.
Johnson has been polishing his image (polishing.... now what does that remind me of in the Johnson context...)
The general impression I am getting from comments by other leaders is that Johnson's team managed him well and he has improved his image but from the EU the verdict is unanimous, he has produced nothing new on Brexit and the ball is in the UK court. No Deal begins to look like a dead cert if Parliament doesn't come up with a cunning wheeze. Depressing.....

[Tizer]

Yes, I heard that but he isn't the first....

No, but he's possibly the one with the worst combination of power and unpredictability.

Macron's security advisers were apoplectic when he said he wanted the G7 to be held in Biarritz in August. The busiest month for the popular seaside town and in a region known for rebellious activity. He over-ruled them and had the centre of the town blocked off for all but those with special badges. The news media, camp-followers and protesters have been corralled in a town further south. Biarritz was a small fishing village in the 1800s until Napoleon III built a house there for Empress Eugenie in the 1850s. It was a brief interlude before war with Prussia resulted in them having to leave France...and buying a house in Farnborough.

[Tripps]

It's late - but it all seems to be 'kicking off'. Nigel is, exceptionally, doing an extra late shift on LBC - three hours from 10.00 pm to 1.00 am. Sajid Javid the Chancellor has cancelled an important speech. They're off!

I mentioned this in June from Rory Stewart - remember him?

Now the idea re- surfaces with the Archbish seemingly all in favour. The idea has been met with well deserved derision.

[Stanley]

I think you're right David. We are in for a couple of months of unprecedented politics.
Anyone who claims they can predict what will happen is guessing.
It's started. Sajid Javid announces that the Financial Review will be next week. Commentators are puzzled by the fact he is promising spending but at the same time sticking to Osborne's rules about not borrowing more than 2% of GDP. Could there be an election in prospect?

[plaques]

...but at the same time sticking to Osborne's rules about not borrowing more than 2% of GDP.

Perhaps Osborne has finished mending the roof.
Here's a new theory of mine to explain why Johnson is taking such a stand on crashing out of the EU without a deal. He knows that it would crash the economy and it would be the last thing he wants to do but by posturing as a hard man determined to give way to the Brexit vote but hoping that parliament will find a way to stop it happening. This posturing will enhance his standing as someone prepared to get the job done providing of course that it leaves him as Prime Minister. This is analogous to the drunk spoiling for a fight with someone who will give him a good thrashing but relying on his pals to stop it before it gets to 'hey-lads-hey' but in the end boosting his standing.
I can only hope this is what is intended to happen.

[Tizer]

Breaking news...
`Government to ask Queen to suspend Parliament' LINK
`The Queen will be asked by the government to suspend Parliament days after MPs return to work - and a matter of weeks before the Brexit deadline. The BBC's political editor, Laura Kuenssberg, says it will make way for Boris Johnson's new administration to hold a Queen's Speech - laying out the government's future plans - on 14 October. But it means MPs are unlikely to have time to pass any laws that could stop the prime minister taking the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October. A No 10 source said: "It's time a new government and new PM set out a plan for the country after we leave the EU." The idea of shutting down Parliament - known as prorogation - has caused controversy, with critics saying it would stop MPs being able to play their democratic part in the Brexit process. Laura Kuenssberg said only a small number of government ministers knew about the plan and it was going to cause a huge row.'

[PanBiker]

That's about as dodgy as you can possibly get.

[Tizer]

Here's more detail from the BBC News site: LINK

[Tripps]

Cunning move by HM Q to deflect the attention from her son Andrew.

[Stanley]

I agree with the constitutional expert who has just said that this is now a constitutional crisis as great as 1939. Suspending democratic government is so obviously wrong that it leaves me totally bemused. Has Johnson completely lost his marbles? Have his advisers effectively taken over?
I said we would see a new type of politics but even I didn't expect this. I shall go quiet now as I watch what transpires. We are now in uncharted waters. This is a constitutional coup.

[Tizer]

Dominic Cummings is an anarchist as well as being Boris's chief special adviser, so I suppose it's not that surprising. Although they're doing it in an attempt to prevent others from blocking a no-deal Brexit it may well backfire - those opposing Boris are going to be very angry and will be infused with a much greater determination to stop it and to bring down Boris. I notice a nasty trait has now taken hold among the government Brexiteers where they are accusing even leavers who want to avoid a no-deal outcome as being `traitors' and that will likely stoke up the fires even more. Crazy times, eh!

[Tizer]

Petition: Do not prorogue Parliament...
LINK

[Big Kev]

20190828_172645.jpg

We're all doomed...

[Sue]

Petition: Do not prorogue Parliament...
LINK

Petition signed. I am beyond shocked.

[Whyperion]

And privately Trump is getting worried about the US finances. He knows as well as anyone else that they are on a knife edge. That's why he has been pushing for an interest rate cut. He doesn't want trouble taking the shine off next year's election. That's why he needs a trade deal with the UK.
66 days until Brexit. I see that Number Ten has rejected the idea of a 'count down clock'. Seen as too 'stressful'.

Given that the Brexit uncertainies have weakend the pound, it continues to make the UK a good place to invest/buy assets, plus most of the FTSE 100 have USD /EUR related incomes so no big hit to that at present. A US interest rate cut may have been factored in by the markets already in the relative rates, there may be some advantages to US economy internally but probably wont change exchange rates much.

Meanwhile ending the current session, some legisative carry over ( a fair amount was brexit related anyway ), a new queens speech, other than wasting yet more time presumably will lead to the real torydom plan for life after the EU, given that parliament could never agree on anything it is one of only three outcomes (ignore brexit vote and stay in, postpone brexit, or crash out ). Only thing is if say , Labour had tried such a move with the same reasons as Johnson comes up with, JRM and similar would be the first on the complaining it was unconsitutional etc. I only presume that Elizabeth heard the advice from her Privvy Council Ministers (isnt Three a Junta ?) . and without comment, signed on the dotted line.

[Stanley]

Petition signed.... Just confirmed via the email.
Still mulling it over and watching.
One small fact. This move makes end of the Union a racing certainty.

[Big Kev]

Just checked and it's at 1.31 million, they can't ignore it but is there enough time left for anyone to do anything about it? I suspect not. As I said previously 'we're all doomed'.

Is there a positive side to this lunacy?

[Stanley]

The only positive effect I can see happening Kev is that this act of procedural vandalism is going to cut across party lines, there could be some unlikely bedfellows.
I think you are right about the shortage of time, no matter what the degree of cooperation this is the enemy. At the moment a no deal is almost a certainty.
When the dust settles and this series of actions can be analysed I suspect that this is not a new policy born of desperation but that this was the plan all along. As Tizer says, Dominic Cummings is a disruptor and I suspect we shall find that his fingerprints are all over this. Look at the way they have shielded Johnson from scrutiny all the way along and have succeeded. Imagine him being subjected to a Paxman!
There is a further dimension. Even if this ploy succeeds in getting a no deal Brexit there will certainly be a general election and there is a very good chance that Johnson will lose, especially after this ploy. So the only possible reason for pursuing this is to achieve exit from the EU with no restrictions. This will mean that the gainers will be the capital holders like the hedge funds. (Interesting to note that if PE is to be believed, they have been the source of funding for the Johnson campaign.) It may be that this is going to be what a US senator described after 2008 as a 'Financial Coup'. This is what has driven the Leave campaign all along and it has been characterised by obfuscation, direct lies and failed promises, exactly the description that could be levelled at the Johnson campaign. That also was funded by the capital holders. This move is pre-planned and therefore all his denials have been conscious lies.
Overall this is the culmination of a deterioration in governance that started in 2010 and in the end is going to blow our present system to smithereens, it is obviously not fit for purpose.

[Big Kev]

I suppose, at least, someone has made a decision to force something happen to break the political deadlock. Whether that decision is right, wrong, good, bad or whatever, it's a decision. Regardless of the potential mess it could leave the country in something has got to happen as we're all fed up with 3 years of apathy.

[Stanley]