POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

I'm glad Sajid Javid has gone. He seemed too much of a loose cannon to me. Hope the next one is better!

[Tripps]

This puzzles me a bit - which is not too difficult.

From a leading newspaper in December 2019

Nicky Morgan has been given a peerage to retain her job as culture secretary despite standing down as MP, becoming the first in a decade to run a government department from the Lords.
In a surprise move Boris Johnson rushed through the peerage in less than a day to avoid losing one of the faces of One Nation conservatism. It is thought that she will hold the job until a reshuffle in February, having left the Commons citing strain on her family.

All that fuss then he sacked her. No austerity and little strain now for the Morgan family. Still - she's got a free ticket to the best old folks home and dining room in London, and £323 per day attendance - which is now greater than a month's Job Seekers' Allowance.

She might even be eligible for both? It's almost enough to vote Labour. . .

[Stanley]

Basically Ian is right. My suspicion is that Johnson only has one fixed policy, mismanage the EU negotiations by being too demanding and at the end of the year force the No Deal Brexit that he and the ERG have been after for 3 years and more. His Rasputin Cummings has guided him towards getting complete political and economic control. This effectively knocks out Treasury control of policy/spending in a failing economy. Cummings was influenced by revenge as well. He hasn't forgotten or forgiven Javid tongue lashing him and going public when his other adviser was sacked without him knowing.
Ersatz Prime Minister Cummings now has almost dictatorial powers. This will be damaging but effective disruption but is a bridge too far and will end in tears all round. Look for salvation on the Tory back benches because Labour are too busy destroying themselves and the SNP have their own agenda. The trigger could be Ireland.
As David says, "What could possibly go wrong?".

[PanBiker]

Yes, Ireland, it was really good idea yesterday to sack the bloke that has just got the devolved parliament back together after months of negotiations. No surprise that Sinn Fein have made massive gains in the polls, the nearest thing they have to socialism on the island. Reunification could be on the cards and may go to a referendum at some point in the not too distant future. Alternatively they could start fighting again which is also a possibility.

[plaques]

Just watched/ listened to an interview with Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman. Link.. covering a wide range of subjects both American and UK. Asked why the American public think the way they do his reply was that to understand politics you need a lot of time which the ordinary man doesn't have. This is a long You Tube, 43 mins well worth listening to but if you want to jump to the Brexit bit pick it up at around 27 min into the programme. Brexit is not a total catastrophe but could make people poorer. Also makes the comment that western politics are robust enough to withstand some very dumb leaders but worries that America and Trump are starting a rule of fear and racist bias that could upset the whole democratic system as we know it. Well worth listening to the whole interview if only to get a different prospective on how American politics work.

[Tizer]

A big danger now is that the rise in populism is, ironically, taking us away from democracy and toward dictatorships-by-any-other name. Putin loves it because it's exactly his style. Keep in mind that Trump likes Putin and Johnson likes Trump. Cummings probably likes Stalin!

[Stanley]

P, Paul Krugman is one of the good guys, I shall be looking for that one!
Interesting theory put forward yesterday that Johnson had never thought through the detail of what would happen when he told Javid about losing his team because, like Trump, he doesn't do detail. Suspicion is that Rasputin never bothered to warn him as he had his own agenda.
Ireland; devolved government is already cracking under the strain. See Arlene Foster yesterday.
Did you see Johnson's idea of good TV coverage of a cabinet meeting? He was conducting a primary school exercise in which he got the class to repeat slogans like "50,000 nurses" and "forty hospitals". Obviously a set up and demonstrates complete contempt for the voters if he thinks this will reassure them. Demonstrates the level of his thinking so God help us!

[Tizer]

A long and detailed article from Nicholas Watt at the BBC...
`Dominic Cummings and the battle for Downing Street' LINK

[PanBiker]

Emily Thornberry is out of the Labour leadership contest. She failed to secure enough nominations from constituency parties and trade unions by the deadline, 31 out of the minimum 33 requirement.

[Stanley]

Secretary of State for Transport – Rt Hon Grant Shapps MP
Minister of State – Andrew Stephenson MP
Minister of State – Chris Heaton-Harris MP
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State – Kelly Tolhurst MP
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State – Rachel Maclean MP
Parliamentary Under Secretary of State – Baroness Vere of Norbiton

[PanBiker]

That's alright then, he can re-instate the Colne to Skipton line at the the same time he is delivering milk for the "Modern Milkman"

[Stanley]

P. I have just taken the time to listen to the Krugman interview. Brilliantly incisive. Compare the way he puts his ideas forward with President Johnson...... Thanks for bringing it to my attention.

[Stanley]

Later... 'Westlessness'. (the reduction in cooperation between and global influence of the 'Western Democracies particularly in Transatlantic relations.)
This new word describes a state of affairs which is generating a lot of heat after President Macron of France speaks his mind.
My view is that in the days when the security of Europe was seen as an important asset in protecting the security of America it was a powerful enough influence to shake the US out of its aversion to becoming a participant in two world wars. Today, under Trump and 'America First' Europe is not seen as much as an asset but a threat. This is why attitudes have changed.
In this short term view the larger benefits of international cooperation and good will have been forgotten.

[Whyperion]

Yes, Ireland, it was really good idea yesterday to sack the bloke that has just got the devolved parliament back together after months of negotiations. No surprise that Sinn Fein have made massive gains in the polls, the nearest thing they have to socialism on the island. Reunification could be on the cards and may go to a referendum at some point in the not too distant future. Alternatively they could start fighting again which is also a possibility.

I read that FF, FG anf The Greens might form some kind of working coalition. It always seems that the irish populace are only happy when they are moaning about their elected leaders, Ireland is such a small population and little urbanised with few high value natural resources ( good ag and fish does not build strong economies at present - maybe in the long term though when we are all post-industrial. I would live there but it is wetter than Lancashire).

[Whyperion]

I wonder if the years when the PMs Office and The Treasury ran their own teams (Blair/Brown , Cameron/Osborne) that it was wasted efforts, though two pairs of eyes and challenging assumptions should be a good thing, throw the Cabinet Office reporting and the late office of the DPM and the bureaucracy of Whitehall exceeded that of Brussells. Will the Budget be delayed, well given that the UK cannot marry into money (and this is the electorate that rejected the Metropolitan Elite of Labour ), one hopes the member for the new landed gentry of North Yorkshire is canny enough to carry on the re-presenting of old promised money unspent as new policy and funding. The short memories of the increases past in VAT and a few tax amendments disguised as increasing fairness will probably end up as a challenging settlement for local authorities (wonder which Town is going to get its all electric buses - Darlington? Hartlepool ? Colne and Nelson ?? ) with bid- top-ups. I presume the Treasury was planning for no-deal hard leaving which is going to be fun on customs duties and so on if that does occur. What did Boris learn at Eton, and Learn from Oxford on International Relations ?

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC rep;ort of a statement by the French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian who predicted the two sides would "rip each other apart" as they strove for advantage in the negotiations. He also said it would be tough for the UK to achieve its aim of agreeing a free trade deal by the end of the year.
Not good news for No. 10.
See THIS Huff Post rep[ort about a particularly obnoxious aide who responded to Cummings' call for weirdos. It looks as though he found one!

[Tripps]

who predicted the two sides would "rip each other apart"

Like Tyson Fury - a lot is said before the 'fight' starts.
They'll be hugging each other when it's over.

[Tizer]

They'll be hugging each other when it's over.

...coronavirus permitting!

[PanBiker]

That weird bloke that Cummings set on has quit:

Guardian Report - Andrew Sabiski

[Tripps]

Well he asked for weirdos and misfits - so he seems to have qualified.

Can an adviser appoint other advisors? Who pays for them and are there any limits to the numbers? He described himself as a 'super forecaster' - didn't forecast his own demise though.

[Stanley]

Sabisky.... Good! He looks and sounds like a classic case of retarded development to me. Is he shaving yet?
Later, thinking about 'Events Dear Boy', HSBC, Apple and other multinationals are warning that the Corona virus is having a serious effect on growth in major markets. HSBC in particular are seeing a large drop in their profits. The oil price has also dropped and this affects the UK tax take.
As we enter the EU negotiations outside factors may be growing and militating against us.

[plaques]

Virtually everything that comes out of No 10. are set piece answers designed to placate the plebs. Generally they mean nothing, don't answer the question and on analysis the content is questionable. In PanBiker's link the last two paragraphs are typical examples.

“The prime minister’s views are well publicised and well documented.” Asked repeatedly to point to where Johnson’s views were documented, he declined to answer.
An answer that can't be substantiated ?.

The spokesman also distanced No 10 from the remarks of Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, who said over the weekend that Sabisky’s comments were “not my views and those are not the views of the government”, saying the cabinet minister was speaking only for himself when he made that statement.

How can someone offer to speak for the government and at the same time only speak for himself? So which part of Grant Shapps statement did the No 10 spokesman disagree with?

[Tizer]

Philip Aldrick had an article about Dominic Cummings in The Times last Saturday, explaining how he follows the `move quickly and disrupt things' philosophy and the way this is playing a part in the approach to Brexit, HS2 and other current issues. The article also warned that we must keep an eye on Rishi Sunak because he might wear a flash suit and look sharp but underneath he's another Cummings. Both come from wealthy backgrounds, posh schools and Oxford University. Sunak went on to an MBA from Stanford University as a Fulbright Scholar, then to Goldman Sachs, and later a partner at a City hedge fund management firm, The Children's Investment Fund Management. He then joined former colleagues at new hedge fund firm, Theleme Partners, and was also a director of an investment firm Catamaran Ventures, owned by his father-in-law. As a hedge fund man he also has the philosophy of breaking things to bring about change. So it looks increasingly like we are into even more `interesting times'!

On Friday the Guardian had reported on Sunak's past and the article includes this: Guardian
In a challenge from John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, Labour said Sunak’s former close associate Patrick Degorce had participated in a multimillion-pound tax avoidance scheme. Degorce and Sunak both worked for the Children’s Investment Fund Management, a hedge fund run by the billionaire Sir Chris Hohn, which also had links to companies in the Cayman Islands, Labour said....However, Degorce was also the founder of Theleme Partners, a hedge fund which Sunak helped to start in 2009. Degorce was ordered to repay about £8m in tax after he was found to have used a film investment partnership tax avoidance scheme. McDonnell said: “Clearly Mr Sunak has questions to answer about his past activities and associations.” A Treasury source said: “We will take no lectures from the Labour party, who seem to be stuck playing the same old political games rather than listening to what the public wants. The chancellor is focused on levelling up and delivering on the promises made to the British in last years election.” [So that's alright then - Ed.]

[Stanley]

Good posts.... I am not surprised by either of them, I have read the same reports. Johnson has his mandate and is picking his men carefully. The Sabiskys and Cummings of this world share Johnson's faults, thinks he is right, follows the Trump model and disrupts continuously under the guise of cleaning the Augean stables. No long term appreciation of consequences and a complete contempt for anyone not of his thinking. See Cummings' remark yesterday about "political commentators who don't know what they are talking about".
On the subject of SPADS, I see our chief Brexit negotiator made a speech yesterday laying out government policy on their negotiating stance. He is a SPAD, never elected and only an 'adviser' on a short term contract. Since when did we allow such breathtaking arrogance or advisers to speak for the government?
I remain convinced that the Cunning Plan is to disrupt the negotiations by making what to the EU will be unreasonable demands and when inevitably we reach the end of the year with no agreement Johnson will throw his toys out of the pram, declare the EU to be obstructive and unreasonable and trigger No Deal Brexit, what he and his ERG mates have been after all the time for the benefit of the top holders of capital.
In all this the electorate are regarded as disposable and treated with contempt. In Cummings' opinion, 'we don't understand these complicated matters'.
Judge that at the end of the year.

[plaques]

Get Brexit Done.

Is this the biggest con of the century. We left the EU as promised on 31 Jan 2020. giving the UK the ability to do as it pleases from this time onwards. Well not quite. The much published red lines of Laws, Immigration, Trade. Borders and endless others can't be sorted until we have completed our talks with the EU. Until you know what the terms are going to be with our biggest trade partners it is impossible to strike deals with anybody else if you don't know what the gaps in your trading system are going to be. Johnson may well wish to leave with a 'no deal' but can't do this within the extension period or all the blame will fall on him rather than being able to push it onto the EU. Meanwhile back at the camp there will be endless dead cats thrown on the table together with lots of aspirations of what we would like to happen.
Sorry but 'Get Brexit Done' we will just have to wait another 10 months until 2021, and then if we are lucky someone may have formulated some unworkable plan. On the other hand we will bumble along from one catastrophe to another quietly handing controls over to Trump and his Republican cohorts.

Get Brexit Done.