CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Stanley]

There is a wonderful book called 'Cod' by Mark Kurlansky which is a fascinating read. He did one called 'Salt' as well and that is equally informative.

[Tizer]

We knew that Greenland's glaciers were dumping increasing amounts of ice into the sea and contributing to sea level rise but now we find that the ice sheet itself is melting inland and flowing away as rivers to the sea.
`Greenland's ice melting faster than scientists previously thought' LINK
`Greenland is melting faster than scientists previously thought, with the pace of ice loss increasing four-fold since 2003, new research has found. Enormous glaciers in Greenland are depositing ever larger chunks of ice into the Atlantic ocean, where it melts. But scientists have found that the largest ice loss in the decade from 2003 actually occurred in the southwest region of the island, which is largely glacier-free. This suggests surface ice is simply melting as global temperatures rise, causing gushing rivers of meltwater to flow into the ocean and push up sea levels. South-west Greenland, not previously thought of as a source of woe for coastal cities, is set to “become a major future contributor to sea level rise,” the research states....'

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of David Attenborough trying to talk sense into the world at Davos. Your news about increased snow melt reinforces what he is telling the Great and the Good. Question is, are they listening?

[Tizer]

This is the BBC's take on the same published study...
`Satellites saw rapid Greenland ice loss' LINK

There are many who know it's happening and that it's dangerous but they don't care about the future, only about themselves now.

[Stanley]

Why do I get this image of Lemmings rushing towards the cliff edge. (In more ways than one!)

[Tizer]

`'Tipping point' risk for Arctic hotspot' LINK
`A rapid climate shift under way in the Barents Sea could spread to other Arctic regions, scientists warn. The Barents Sea is said to be at a tipping point, changing from an Arctic climate to an Atlantic climate as the water gets warmer.'

An important paragraph reads: `The changes could affect weather patterns as far away as East Asia, and may have an effect on the jet stream, which influences so much of the UK’s weather patterns. Scientists haven’t reached agreement on this yet.' Here in the UK we always have to keep in mind the Gulf Stream too.

Coincidentally a new book has just appeared on how geology (and climate) shaped the human race (and is still shaping it):
`Origins: How the Earth Made Us' by Lewis Dartnell, Bodley Head/Penguin, Published: 31/01/2019, ISBN: 9781847924353, Length: 352 Pages, RRP: £20.00. LINK

[Stanley]

Worrying stuff Tiz and I believe them. My forecast is more unpredictability in our weather.
Did you see the report about the deepest hot water drilling? Can't help wondering how much fossil fuel was burned to heat it and fly the oil in. I'm presuming that has got to be the source of the heat.

[Tizer]

Petrol and aviation fuel was used. It's a case of cracking eggs to make omelettes - the benefits from understanding climate change will outweigh the extra bit of CO2 emitted. LINK

[Tizer]

The following news is not surprising but the article has a good graph showing the saw-shaped curve caused by annual cycles of CO2 absorption by plants and the rising CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.*

`Faster CO₂ rise expected in 2019' Met Office
`With emissions already at a record high, the build-up of carbon-dioxide in the atmosphere will be larger than last year due to a slower removal by natural carbon sinks.'

*The graph uses data from Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii which is one of many CO2 monitoring centres worldwide. The observatory sits high on the slopes of Mauna Loa volcano which has in the past prompted climate deniers to claim the CO2 figures are meaningless because of CO2 emitted from the volcano. This is wrong for two reasons. First, the volcanic CO2 is swept away from the observatory by winds that blow outwards from the island to the ocean. Second, the observatory separately monitors CO2 emission from the volcano and can detect any sudden rises in local concentration of the gas.

[Tripps]

So the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere today is 410 parts per million or 0.041%. This is an increase from the decades long accepted figure of 0.040% for this trace component of our atmosphere, and the measurement, which presumably is extrapolated to give a 'world worry' figure, was taken in Hawaii next to a volcano which emits lots of the stuff - but that's OK because we've allowed for it.

I speak as a sceptical, cynical, and a bit flippant person - but I'm trying not to let the news spoil my day.

[Tizer]

This is an increase from the decades long accepted figure of 0.040% for this trace component of our atmosphere

That's the trouble with rounding up a figure instead of being accurate - it passed 0.350 in the 1980s.

[Stanley]

Working on worst case analysis I'll believe them David. I see Germany is to close all coal fired generating stations by 2038 so that's all right..... The owners are going to claim gazillions of Marks in compensation for closing the open cast lignite mines..... (LINK)
Meanwhile we continue to subsidise biomass burning plants that are more polluting than coal fired.

[Tizer]

This photo shows an open cast lignite mine in Germany. Most of the lignite mines in Germany are owned by the big energy company RWE. They've known for decades that they were fuelling climate change but were slow to respond.

[Stanley]

What a sterile landscape!

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC account of a study published in the Journal Nature Climate Change done by North American universities. They are warning of the dangers of lakes losing their ice cover in winter which has huge implications for wild life, their ecology and the impact on communities that rely on them. They say that this process is happening now.
I had never considered the effect of warming on inland bodies of water but this study reminds us of the power of the Law of Unintended Consequences. How many more examples like this are there?

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of the Chicago weather which is getting colder and colder. These are really serious low temperatures, you simply can't survive unprotected. The idiot Trump tweets about global warming suggesting that this cold weather proves it isn't happening. The depth of his ignorance is amazing...... The Chief forecaster at the local TV station was on Today this morning and he said that Trump needs to go and do a crash course on climatology as the most likely cause is warming in the Arctic which has split the vortex in two, One half is heading into the US Mid-West and the other into Siberia. The latter could be bad news for us if we get a high pressure blocking zone there and easterly winds bring that weather west.....

[Tizer]

I too heard the Chicago forecaster and agree with him. When a complex system like the climate shifts from one stable state to another it goes through a turbulent period when there is always a greater risk of instability (you can add Brexit as another example!).

At least research is helping us monitor what's happening around the world, even under the Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers - and with the help of seals!
`Major expedition targets Thwaites Glacier' LINK

[Stanley]

That's a good link Tiz. Thank God this sort of research is happening to give us more understanding. How can people make stupid statements like 'It's a Chinese Hoax' when they have concrete evidence like this. Part of the qualification for being a candidate to high public office should be a basic psychological assessment......
[I was pleased to see the electronic tags fall off when the seal moults...]

[Stanley]

We often mention the Law of Unintended Consequences in this and other topics. See THIS for a BBC account of new research that has produced a very surprising result. Due to European incursions into the Americas it is believed that 90% of the indigenous populations died, mainly because they had no resistance to things like Smallpox, sexual diseases and Flu. This meant that their agriculture failed and in the process of taking over, vegetation like trees and shrubs took so much Carbon Dioxide out of the atmosphere that it triggered a global drop in temperature, known in European history as The Little Ice Age, the period when we saw effects like the Thames freezing over.
The corollary of course is that the lessening of vegetation and forests could have the opposite effect, just what we see happening now.
Fascinating. I wonder what the deniers will make of this?

[Tizer]

As other scientists are pointing out, the Great Dying was only one of several factors which contributed to the Little Ice Age, but the study will help put present ideas into perspective. One of the authors said: `The fall-out from the terrible population crash and re-wilding of the Americas illustrated the challenge faced by some global warming solutions. There is a lot of talk around 'negative emissions' approaches and using tree-planting to take CO₂ out of the atmosphere to mitigate climate change. And what we see from this study is the scale of what's required, because the Great Dying resulted in an area the size of France being reforested and that gave us only a few ppm. This is useful; it shows us what reforestation can do. But at the same, that kind of reduction is worth perhaps just two years of fossil fuel emissions at the present rate.'
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There's a BBC article this morning about how big investors (with ~ $6.5 trillion under management) are calling on McDonald's, KFC, and other fast food suppliers to take swift action on climate change and to cut carbon and water risks in their dairy and meat suppliers. Part way through the article there is a quote from McDonald's defending themselves by saying how much they are doing to reduce emissions. In saying this they conveniently show us just how much total emissions they cause via there meat foods. They say that in 2018, McDonald's became the first restaurant company in the world to address global climate change by setting a target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which has been approved by the Science Based Targets initiative. "This includes reducing emissions intensity in our supply chain through engagement and collaboration with suppliers and farmers - which we expect will prevent 150 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions from being released into the atmosphere by 2030. This is the equivalent of taking 32 million passenger cars off the road for an entire year or planting 3.8 billion trees and growing them for 10 years." LINK

[Stanley]

Funny isn't it Tiz that everyone can see the mote in others eyes while ignoring the beam in their own.....
Very few talk about the elephant in the room, population growth. I saw a good article the other day that pointed to the hopeful fact that the rate of growth is declining and Malthusian effects will further reduce numbers. Trouble is, how long does it take until we adjust?

[Tizer]

I warned about this years ago on OG. The Himalayan glaciers are melting away and it will lead to massive floods in winter and severe droughts in summer in Asian countries. The glaciers normally act as reservoirs, storing the winter rains and releasing the water slowly over the following year. The floods will sweep away the homes of millions of people. Dams will be destroyed, causing even more flooding and deaths. Human migration will bring further problems.
`Climate change: Warming threatens Himalayan glaciers' LINK

[Stanley]

Gloomy predictions Tiz but totally realistic. It is virtually inevitable now.
The NW Australia 'Wet' is worse than usual this year and they have crocodiles in the streets. They attribute the severe monsoon partially to climate change leading to this years record temperatures as far south as Perth and Melbourne. Cathy and Maz have reported that as well as Margaret in Perth.....

[Stanley]

More bad news.... See THIS BBC report on the latest news about global temperatures. It is worse than expected, the decade 2014 to 2023 is on track to be the warmest in modern times and warnings are given that as the temperature rises, the possibility of more extreme events rises and this might be the ultimate tipping point.

[Stanley]

Grand daughter Laura sent me this image taken on a Perth Beach at 3AM our time this morning. They have been having very hot weather of course and the beach is the go-to place to be to get the benefits of the 'Fremantle Doctor' in the afternoon. It may be global warming but it looks very attractive to me at this time of the year!