POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

If you all think Rory Stewart is `strange' you need to get out a bit more and look at the folk on the streets! Just because he doesn't look the same as you it doesn't mean he's `strange'

[Stanley]

I'm listening to the interminable talking shop that is the dissection of the EU results. Basically it is as we thought, a complete reversal of the 'normal' voting patterns. Labour are 3rd after Libdems. Tories are 5th with a dreadful result (only 3 seats) and Farage has the most seats with 30% of the vote. It was a referendum on Brexit and no indicator of what a general election would produce.
See THIS BBC report.
Walking is good for thinking. The preliminary conclusion I have come to is that more tergiversation from the Tory party would not be surprising. The Tories will hang on to power by their fingertips, go for an exit on any terms, most likely No Deal. They will then hang on again for a time because nobody will want to inherit the awful mess this will cause. Eventually they will have to give up and be slaughtered at a general election. Most likely outcome then is a Lib/Lab coalition and some moderate policies. Of course I could be completely wrong...
A question... how will another referendum change anything?

[plaques]

A question... how will another referendum change anything?

In my mind it won't. The final answer is 'it all depends on who holds it'.
If its the Tories either an in/out answer takes us back to Cameron days with a totally fractured party.
If its Labour, after a general election, then on an 'in' vote they could claim the mood has changed and stop in. If 'out' its Corbyn's Brexit plan and a fractured Labour party. Tom Watson should keep his mouth shut.
Coalition Governments would produce exactly the same result as that for Labour.
Overall I think a second referendum is a mistake unless Labour win by a landslide which is a bit doubtful since there are too many people who think they are bourgeoisie because they are buying their ex-council house and have a second hand car.

[Stanley]

I think we are on the same page P.

[PanBiker]

One good thing is that Yaxley-Lennon aka Tommy Robinson only got 2% of the vote. Still amounts to 30,000 who share his fascist views, shows how disengaged some folk are.

[Tizer]

Another view would be that the 30,000 are engaged enough to go out and vote but they are engaged with beliefs that the rest of us loathe. About 73% of the electorate were not engaged enough to even vote.

The BBC has presented results graphically here: `European Election 2019: UK results in maps and charts' LINK This graphic is interesting...


We need Labour to get behind a second referendum - as someone said on the radio this morning, `Labour has been following a policy of constructive ambiguity on Brexit'.

Tripps, don't get jealous but `The Fragrant Heidi' is getting cosy with the LibDems! LINK

[Tripps]

Tripps, don't get jealous but `The Fragrant Heidi' is getting cosy with the LibDems!

Yes - I'm afraid it's over. It was nice while it lasted. The gloss went off when despite complaining of the work level as an MP she put herself forward as a candidate for Mayor of Cambridge and Peterborough. (Later withdrew).

I hope she doesn't stand as a Liberal here since the candidate last time Susan van de Ven is a good woman.

[plaques]

About 73% of the electorate were not engaged enough to even vote.

I can confirm that statement as fact. A couple of days ago I was early for an appointment. In rather a casual comment I asked the receptionist "have you voted yet?" The answer was "No, I've no idea what its about"! She then said to me "you're early but I see you've got a book to read, what is it?" Me "Well its a biography on Karl Marx." "Never heard of him." was the reply. I smiled and sat down. No doubt at a general election she will exercise her right to vote with the conviction of a seasoned activist.

[Whyperion]

Should I be getting annoyed at BBC taking the farage stance that because Brexit party polled thed greatest number of votes and have greatest number of seats this actually means - as most brexiting tories are saying too - that Brexit should go ahead at any cost (and most people indicating Brexit on the soundbytes tend to indicate they voted brexit over the amount of money paid out to the EU - no polictian - including Labpur- has pointed out clearly in NoDeal/ most deal situations , exports will still be charged by the EU tariffs - so that is money even more bureaucratically to the EU , and Imports in likewise (costing consumers and firms in additional money and admin time). And the BBC is not clearly in its headlines saying that overall that the combined vote of remaining parties is greater , just split between 4 of them. (excludes NI someone will have to remind me which parties there want to leave, or remain). I could speculate that a Tory BoJo party taking Declared Brexit at any cost route probably would have taken most of the Brexit Party vote and seats, but I am not sure how in Scotland Tories got 1 seat , i dont think its votes there were necessarily supporting brexit as such. As to Lib and Green Vote up, I certainly hear whispers within Labour Party membership that they are more members as being definately not tory , but they lean to personal views that are more Green or Lib Dem , and so sometimes vote that way when there is a chance of returning at Green or LibDem member. While there is talk of Change wanting a combined vehicle (Articulated Truck?) with the LibDems , the potential next LD leader on Westminster Hour on Radio 4 seemed to be cool towards the idea, I suspect that the present Change MPs being a disparate bunch of Conservative and Labour disaffected members probably dont hold views that would sit in the declared LibDem values. Any stepping aside, even in the Change MP consitutancies I could see would make no difference, as I can see Change being ignored in LibDem likely seats anyway, and being beaten by Lab or Tory in the less likely Lib Dem areas - maybe someone could suggest 10 seats where a Change Candidate could win compared with where a Lib Dem could not. Would there actually be more merit in LibDem and Moderate sections of the Labour groups getting together - effectively Corbyn or otherwise , does Labour have a future?- if With LibDem participation the Tories could not use the Labour as being cause of austerity argument against a future set of proposals. Labour would have to support PR and accept it would only have a future in coalition governments of a Lab-Lib-Green-SNP-PC (which could exist without ever getting Independent Scotland) grouping vs a Tory-UKipy-Unionists group.

Without Farage I could not see a Brexit Party actually existing, or surviving, and where do moderate (?) or certainly Euro supporting Tories go ? (Hesltines Problem)

Only problem I see with LibDems is that votes dont translate into activist support, so it is a few pulling a lonely furrow, which makes it difficult to get a local breakthrough into adjoining areas.

[Stanley]

"No doubt at a general election she will exercise her right to vote with the conviction of a seasoned activist."
I sympathise P. But as I have been known to observe before, never underestimate the ignorance of people out there. We could do with some original Marxist thinking at the moment. A much misunderstood man these days.
I too wonder at the facile instant conclusions drawn by many commentators when 'analysing' the EU vote.
Where is T May? Locked in a cupboard? Even the Downing Street initiative and spin department seems to have suffered melt-down.

[chinatyke]

Where is T May? Locked in a cupboard? Even the Downing Street initiative and spin department seems to have suffered melt-down.

On holiday! AGAIN!

[Stanley]

You are probably right China. The country is paralysed at the moment. They all go back to 'work' today and will be packing for the Whitsuntide recess!

[Stanley]

Later.... calls from anti Corbyn Labour members for Seamus Milne and Carrie Fisher to be sacked for giving bad advice. Shutting the stable door.....
More contenders for the Tory leadership emerge. It appears as though almost every member had a baton in his/her knapsack.

[plaques]

And the BBC is not clearly in its headlines saying that overall that the combined vote of remaining parties is greater , just split between 4 of them

The 'Get out of Europe at all costs' Tories are using a misleading interpretation of the EU elections to justify their position. The UK referendum was 'First past the Post' either in or out. The EU was based on group votes for each party/individual that took part. Some with a written manifesto and others with nothing only 'Get Out'. Since we are not comparing 'like with like' it is wrong to say because the 'Get Out' group got more MEPs than any other single group then that is a mandate to leave.

I suspect that the present Change MPs being a disparate bunch of Conservative and Labour disaffected members probably dont hold views that would sit in the declared LibDem values

Michael Heseltine proves your point. He voted LibDem because the man he voted for was basically a Tory who had changed sides because of a disagreement and he considered him to still be a Tory.
The same logic can be applied to Labour with many of the imports during the Blair years not being 100% kosher.
An analogy to what is going on with the PM's replacement race. A potential dictator needs the backing of ordinary voters until they get in power then they drop them. Watch out for the candidates that promise to leave with a no deal!

[Whyperion]

Do politicians ever re-read what they say?
One of the Brexit MEPs (general gist). reported that in Brexit Party they have experienced and competant negiotiators who they are offering to the Govt to negiotiate with the EU ( no detail of what the basis might be though ), then (and not certain if same MEP/Member) - if they (EU) wont do what we want (implied) then we will walk away from negiotiations (to concentrate minds of EU).. Hardly seems experienced, competant and meaningful to me.

Apart from covering herself I did think T May's resignation speech did make clear the problem of 'Brexit' not being the simple thing that (BoJo etc) had said it would be, and such things wont change going forward. What is quite interesting is that despite lack of leadership and government the rest of the country (Steelmaking and Car Building , Retail and Restaurants excepted ), things are ticking over not too badly.

[Tripps]

I've just seen Mrs May in Brussels behaving as if nothing has happened in the last week. I've mentioned her mental state before, but but surely this behaviour cannot be normal. What does it take to get rid of her? Garlic and a wooden stake?

I found this on The Conservative Woman site - source of many wise words - and some rubbish.

They portrayed a solitary child with few friends, more comfortable with elders than contemporaries, who grew into an adult relying on a small coterie of trusted confidants because of her inability to engage in collegiate fashion with a wider circle – from which she never learned the knack of accepting others’ ideas or acknowledging alternative viewpoints, or its corollary, the art of persuasion and compromise.

What they showed to exacerbate that was the influence of her father’s unbending High-Church Anglicanism, producing a kind of virtuous arrogance, labelled pithily as ‘vicar’s daughter syndrome’, but described more specifically by one acquaintance thus: ‘She has this view of herself, which must be connected to her faith, which is that she has a morality others don’t understand.’

One quote from a ‘senior Tory MP who has known her for decades’ was very revealing: ‘Theresa was annoyed when Margaret Thatcher became [the first female] Prime Minister and beat her to it.’ At the time Thatcher became PM, in May 1979, May was 22 years old.

Now this has been speculated on before, so to see it supported by the remarks of a close acquaintance is interesting. A totally illogical resentment, leading to a determination to pursue a politically opposite path in order to trash as much as possible of Thatcher’s legacy in revenge, could explain quite a lot about May.



PS - Just been announced that Angela Merkel has just 'unresigned'. That'll give Mrs May ideas - I don't think we're rid of her quite yet.

[Whyperion]

Possibly explains too the emphasis on 'Saving The Union' in the UK. Problem I suppose - and I understand but did not think there was as such other than for dutiful things like alchol and tobacco, a hard border between NI and Eire- then both countries entered the EEC on the same date, this has given a connection that with the changes in the EU has become the issue that is difficult to untangle.

For Possible Tory Leaders I note Rory has indicated he wants (and has?) a vision for the UK after Brexit (something the Brexit Party presumably will also have in their manifesto?). Perhaps Rory would like to share the vision , particulary if he accepting of (though not desiring) a Hard Brexit. Note Hunt is tweeting that he is happy with a 'Clean Break' Brexit ( funny how this new term has been taken on so quickly when it is undefined).

[Tizer]

A 'Clean Break' Brexit is a bit like promoting `Freshly Cleaned Asbestos' or `Natural Organic Tobacco' or `Purified Leaded Petrol'. And there people out there are who'd be willing to swallow all of these, literally and metaphorically.

[Whyperion]

Half watching Loose Women, and the question was posed , would Farage be the next UK PM. Generally unfavourable mutterings from the audience, which was interesting, and the panel while noting the rapport and rousing nature of Farage's approach thought that the maybe yes depended on how the Lab/Con actually reacted and thought Farage was interested in creating a right-wing party. No-one actually said should we not wait until we see the manifesto.
Now If I assume that 35% of the UK pop will vote Brexit and not bother about any of the manfesto content (I dont think that is an unreasonable assumption), the question is where, and to what parties, will the 65% be distributed, if split Lab/Lib and Con Equally with 32.5% then that would give Brexit the clean sweep evidenced in the EU vote by constituency (well local authority area I think), with maybe minor adjustments in some particular areas and where single cross party candidate can be agreed on. I also assume SNP take all of Scotish Seats. Given this, should Corbyn carry on calling for a General Election ? Could Cons lose a EU Leave Vote, would Lib Be Able to bring forward a cancel Art50 Vote and still have tories surviving a no confidence vote . I have a feeling, if it is allowed in parliament that this is the most likely outcome on 2019, avoiding, for now, an Early Election. If parliament does back cancel Art50, Farage will moan- easy way to shut him up - and highly consitutional crises- is for the Queen to make a clear speech effectively saying UK better off in a EU than outside it -while Presidential/Republicans would not like it , Farage and Unionists could hardly speak against the UK monarch as that is what they ascribe to as part of being Pro-UK and Anti-EU.

[PanBiker]

You are overlooking the fact that Farage is just a one trick pony with a loud mouthpiece. I can't even see our damaged and disillusioned electorate voting in numbers for him / his party even if he did run for election, they have no track record no manifesto and no experience. You cannot compare success in a contra EU election with that of a general election fought on policy.

[Tizer]

I can't even see our damaged and disillusioned electorate voting in numbers for him / his party even if he did run for election, they have no track record no manifesto and no experience.

Don't bet on it, Ian. You know how elections and referendums can spring surprises. The Americans were saying similar things about Trump and the French about Macron but look where they are now. I certainly don't want Farage to have political power but anything can happen. The people are not happy.

[Stanley]

I'm with Tiz on this one. We are falling into the political trap of discussing personalities and degrees of Brexit. That's what has wasted the last 3 years. Anyone who believes the glorious empire fable under WTO is deluded. And whilst I want to go with Ian on the chances of Farage in an election (and I believe he is right), elections, like referenda, are unpredictable. Again, that's what got us into this mess.
One thing is certain, whoever wins the election after Brexit of any sort will have to deal with a divided country and the almost certain economic repercussions of leaving Europe, just as big a poisoned chalice as the one that May took over when she became leader.
Funnily enough Len McCluskey might be right. Keep your powder dry and wait before doing anything.
Later, there are now 11 firm candidates for the Tory Leadership. All of them giving out two messages, one for the pearls and blue rinse shire members and one for their fellow MPs.
Mr Bercow announces he will not be standing down. This is infuriating hard Brexit members because he has already said that No Deal isn't a given because Parliament has to agree it. I quite like the way this man operates but would not like to have him as a house guest.....

[plaques]

(Bercow)...said that No Deal isn't a given because Parliament has to agree it.

This is one thing that the blatant Brexiters appear to have forgotten. To ignore Parliament and act like a dictator would result in a vote of no confidence in the PM and then a general election. So in spite of all the huffing and puffing and big man posturing anyone who goes down this road is taking a big gamble and possibly a gambol. I'm sure the Tory MPs will see through this rhetoric and pick someone with a bit more common sense. Says he with fingers crossed.

[chinatyke]

(Bercow)...said that No Deal isn't a given because Parliament has to agree it.

This is one thing that the blatant Brexiters appear to have forgotten. To ignore Parliament and act like a dictator would result in a vote of no confidence in the PM and then a general election. So in spite of all the huffing and puffing and big man posturing anyone who goes down this road is taking a big gamble and possibly a gambol. I'm sure the Tory MPs will see through this rhetoric and pick someone with a bit more common sense. Says he with fingers crossed.

If the EU refuse any changes then won't "No Deal" become a fact whatever Bercow says Parliament must agree to? Isn't the ball in the EU's court?

[Tizer]

The EU definitely want to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, China, and they are willing to allow time for a second vote if a deal can't be agreed.
-------------------------------------------------------

Some analysis of the EU election results...
`European Elections: What they tell us about support for Brexit' LINK by Sir John Curtice Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University with with Stephen Fisher, associate professor of political sociology, University of Oxford; Patrick English, associate lecturer in data analysis, University of Exeter and Eilidh Macfarlane, a doctoral student at the University of Oxford.