POLITICS CORNER

[Tizer]

From the above link. . ."Analysis by BBC senior political analyst Peter Barnes
28 October 2019". Spooky - he seems to get everywhere.

Who he?

Overall, the Tories will move to the right...

And yet have adopted the magic money tree they accuse the left of falling back on!

Another confounding factor for the coming election...
`Newly-released figures from the Electoral Commission suggest that, as of last December, 17% of eligible voters in Great Britain might not be registered to vote. This means as many as 9.4 million people could be unable to cast their ballot if a snap election is called. Millions more entries are incorrect in some way. Alarm bells should be ringing for those thinking of a snap general election.' LINK

This is the information that Chancellor Sajid Javid is still hiding from the public...
`Brexit deal means ‘£70bn hit to UK by 2029'' LINK

The UK is in serious trouble now. Nobody knows what the outcome is going to be, either of a General Election or Brexit. I'm deeply disappointed with the MPs who voted through Article 50 and, strangely, I find myself agreeing with Boris Johnson and the press in their criticism of Parliament, although for a different reason. I have to say I'm also deeply disappointed with the British public for being so gullible. Populism is rampant. Parliament is a pantomime. All possible outcomes look bad. My one hope is that the young will see through it all and make their presence felt. But yesterday's vote for the 12th was a slap in the face for them. The Extinction Rebellion protest might become a bigger and wider-based factor in the future of the UK.

[Tripps]

I'm surprised that I don't see any list of MP's who are retiring at the end of this parliament which includes Dennis Skinner. Wikipedia says he was born in 1932 so that makes him 87 years old. Still he's in the best care home in the country - why leave?

[Tripps]

I'll bet you didn't know he also used to be a footballer and wrote plays

Not sure about the plays, but I knew he played for City.

[Stanley]

Electioneering is in full swing. Johnson said yesterday that a Labour government would be a catastrophe for both the economy and politics. I was surprised Corbyn didn't point out that since 2010 that is exactly what the Tories have done.
Later... Walking is good for thinking. Some reflections on my conclusions. For a start, this campaign is going to be different than anything we have seen before. For one thing, campaigning on the web is going to be key. Secondly Johnson is vulnerable on so many points, NHS and Austerity are going to be key triggers and hopefully the electorate is smarter than the politicians think, all they need is to look back. The crash of 2008 was caused by a largely right wing failure to avoid greed and cupidity. Then came the Cameron/Osborne reliance on getting back fiscal control by attacking social care and services whilst at the same time giving tax breaks to the most wealthy both by Treasury tax cuts and light touch regulation of what is generally recognised as a money laundering culture. Then the Referendum Cunning Wheeze, totally mismanaged as an internal Tory Party matter and a Leave campaign that was basically a tissue of lies. Fast forwards to where we are now with a political climate that is toxic and full of anger, largely down to the influence of Dominic Cummings. Note the number of centrist women leaving public life because of threats of rape and murder. (Writing this down even I have to do a double-take but the above is basically what has happened)
So, it seems to me that the Tories are wide open to legitimate attack and give Corbyn one thing, every statement he has made is true. Given all this I can only do one thing, support Labour. Forget tactical voting, let's stick to basics and perhaps get back to something approaching normality.
In case you were wondering, I don't believe that Brexit or not is the elephant in the room. Voters tend to think in more basic terms and most of them have lost income in the last ten years. That's going to be the key.
By the way, it's going to be a dirty campaign and most of the poison will come from the Cummings/Johnson axis.
One last thing after just having to endure Grant Shapps on Today, they just don't get it do they?

[plaques]

I'm surprised that I don't see any list of MP's who are retiring at the end of this parliament

The current total is now at 50. List. All for various reasons or so they claim. Quite a few are retiring having been MPs for years. Others because they have a different ideology to what is being presented. Sadly, some though intimidation and abuse. A number of career politicians who have been cultivating relations and net works in the hope of advancement only to find that they have backed the wrong horse. All typical of any bubble establishment where infighting is the name of the game rather than what is happening in the real world.

[Tizer]

Sadly, some though intimidation and abuse.

One female MP says that even her mother has received threats.

For a start, this campaign is going to be different than anything we have seen before. For one thing, campaigning on the web is going to be key.

You probably heard the Today story this morning about Twitter, Facebook and political advertising. One thing they failed to mention is why Facebook advertising is so dangerous. The company has so much personal data that it provides advertisers with very specific targeting. The dangerous element is that the public at large, and the regulators and politicians don't see these ads and therefore aren't aware of what's going on. If I hated immigrants I could tailor my Facebook advertising to go only to other people who showed signs of such an attitude. It's not in the open like newspaper or TV advertising and it's much more specific. It also contributes to the `echo chamber' problem.

[Tripps]

I'm surprised that I don't see any list of MP's who are retiring at the end of this parliament which includes Dennis Skinner.

I've been quoted partially and it has resulted in the point I was trying to make being ignored. I would suggest that the full quote would clearly indicate that I have seen lists of MP's who are quitting.

[plaques]

Tripps, No malintent intended. Dennis Skinner's leaving had been trailed for some weeks now and was one of the MPs we all knew about. Therefore listing all the MPs, which actually included Skinner amongst them, complied with your comment. If I'd known that you knew then I wouldn't have assumed you didn't know what you knew.

"I wonder why. I wonder why.
I wonder why I wonder
I wonder why I wonder why
I wonder why I wonder!"
---From the scientist Richard Feynman's childhood writings

[Tripps]

I'll say no more on this topic. I feel I'm being mildly trolled.
The list you linked to does not contain Dennis Skinner.

[Stanley]

42 days to make all the arrangements for polling. I wonder if any Nativity Plays will be affected?
42 days for the politicians to do what they do best, talk. I wonder if Johnson can avoid public scrutiny and debate? When he gets excited he tends to go off piste, his opponents will be waiting and hoping.
Trump steps in to 'back' his friend Johnson. I wonder how productive that will be?
Brexiteers keep banging on about doing trade deals under World Trade Organisation rules. I wonder if they've had a close look at that organisation lately? It is in what some believe to be terminal melt-down in a world that moves more and more to unilateral arguments on trade. Look at the US and China for just one example.

[PanBiker]

Not only has Trump given JC a get out of jail free card with his infantile jibes about JC being a "nasty man" and "bad things will happen". He has now told Boris that his Brexit plan is rubbish. Keep it coming Trump, more votes in the bag for us.

[Tizer]

Trump's more interested in promoting Farage than Johnson and it's the Tories that should be worried about POTUS's scatter gun interventions, so I agree that Labour needn't take much notice of him. Being called bad things by Trump puts you automatically into the `good guys' camp!

Earlier I mentioned the role of Facebook in publishing political ads and Stanley noted that promotion on social media will feature large in the run up to the election. It's not simply the wish to target young people that will drive the move towards social media. There are more basic factors than that. For example, the short daylight and potential bad weather (possibly even snow and ice) at this time of year reduce the opportunity for door-knocking. There's also the migration back to their homes of students who will need to be reached through social media. It's a crazy time to have an election!

[Stanley]

I heard part of a programme called SLICE on R4 yesterday and they were explaining the sophistication of some of the tools on Facebook that allows them to target tailored messages to individuals. Quite amazing what can (and will) be done.
Trump has announced he is moving his domicile from NY to Palm Springs. Democratic Governor tweets "Good Riddance". Trump was hated in NY 40 years ago when I was spending time there. His garish black glass Trump Tower was new then and was criticised right from the start. New Yorkers know him of old for what he is and we will eventually learn if we bother with him enough. I reckon Ian has it about right, everything he touches turns to dross.
Watching Farage on TV yesterday launching the Brexit Party campaign. How can anyone take such a con artist seriously?
Labour should remember Clinton, "It's the economy stupid!" and keep plugging away at that, the NHS and public services. To campaign on Brexit or not is a delusion. That's what will sink Johnson in the end like all the other Tory Leaders.

[Tizer]

Watching Farage on TV yesterday launching the Brexit Party campaign. How can anyone take such a con artist seriously?

It's the same reason as with Trump and the Brexiteers. He's saying what those bigoted* people want to hear, regardless of whether it's true or not. Think also of Andrew Wakefield (anti-vaccination).
*`Obstinately or unreasonably attached to a belief, opinion, or faction, and intolerant towards other people's beliefs and practices.'

Later, Matthew Parris has announced he is leaving the Conservative Party after 50 years of membership and will vote for the LibDems...
`Ex-Conservative MP Matthew Parris to quit party and vote Lib Dem: Times columnist asked Tory remainers to join him to defeat pro-Brexit ‘zealots’ in the party' LINK
`Former Tory MP and prominent columnist Matthew Parris has said he will quit the party after 50 years in a call for Conservatives who oppose Brexit to support the Liberal Democrats in the election. The Times journalist said he will cast his vote for the remain-backing party in the 12 December ballot “to defeat Tory zealotry over Europe” as he joined a growing list of prominent members to quit...'.

[Stanley]

One consistent theme that is emerging is that the genuine 'one nation' Tories like Parris and Ken Clarke are rejecting the radical far right tendency that has gained control. They are disillusioned by this trend and one hopes that the same will be true of the core membership. Now is the time for sober assessment of the facts, not knee-jerk politics stoked by insupportable economic arguments from the Right. Ask yourself why the Johnson et al are ignoring treasury forecasts and refusing to debate the views of other economists and most important, industry which has to survive whatever Brexit throws at them.
That's why I say that Parties like Labour have to disregard Brexit and keep hammering away at the core values of basic economics and the deterioration in economics and society. In the end this will be what decides our course over the next 50 years.
Every time I listen to Johnson I am struck by the same thing, he doesn't finish sentences and is incoherent. Think back to the lady with the spider brooch reading the supreme Court Judgement. Admirably concise, clear and understandable. Then compare Johnson.

[Stanley]

Later. Have a look at THIS report about Dominic Cummings and Emily Thornbury questioning his activities in Russia after a whistleblower comes forward.
See also THIS BBC report on another intelligence matter. The failure of the Johnson Government to publish a public report on Russia's intelligence activities even though it has passed all the necessary checks.
Being a suspicious old bugger I ask myself whether there is any connection.

[plaques]

The spat over Farage's Brexit Party trying to do some alliance deal with Johnson's Tory party is making a lot of waves. Basically Farage, who has no British MPs, is trying to bounce Johnson in joining him in a 'No Deal' stance. Saying in effect if you join up with me I'll only contest Labour seats but if you don't its all seats. Johnson is refusing this partnership quoting that in the manifesto they will be pressing for the 'fantastic' deal he has negotiated. (Note, the manifesto has not yet been published). But if we look back at Johnson's record the facts are that ever since 2017 he was pushing Mrs May to take a no deal stance, then in his own term as PM it was "die in a ditch" to come out with a no deal. Also we are still hearing from many of his Tory followers to go for a no deal. All this boils down to the fact that although he is talking his 'fantastic' deal, which is worse than Mrs May's three time rejected deal, nobody believes him. So why give oxygen to a party that will dilute his position, think DUP, when his his real intention is to crash out anyhow?

[Tizer]

See also THIS BBC report on another intelligence matter. The failure of the Johnson Government to publish a public report on Russia's intelligence activities even though it has passed all the necessary checks. Being a suspicious old bugger I ask myself whether there is any connection.

I don't know why the BBC has only now put up this story. The newspapers have been raising the issue since 28th October when the report was to have been published but didn't appear. Perhaps they justify it by the words `facing renewed calls'.

The Lib Dems have made a formal complaint after ITV said its head-to-head election debate would only include the Tories and Labour.

The BBC says: `The Liberal Democrats are not ruling out a Remain alliance in up to 60 seats across the UK. Asked on Sky's Ridge on Sunday whether the Lib Dems, Plaid Cyrmu and the Greens could work together, Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson says: "The specifics of announcements will be made in due course but it's well understood that these discussions have been taking place."'

The Sunday Times says: `The Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party are set to reveal a Remain pact in up to 60 seats, in an effort to deny Mr Johnson a majority.'

The attempts of the Labour and Conservative parties to out do each other in showering money about are reaching fever pitch. They risk triggering total disbelief among the electorate. We know it's Christmas but the claims are getting ridiculous. Most people will realise that after the election most of it will turn out to be a fairy tale. Johnson and Corbyn as Father Christmas twins - heaven help us!

[Stanley]

Tiz, I think Dominic Grieve triggered it by tabling a question in the House today. He knows what's in it of course and if he's pushing it now it means it is not good news for Johnson. Question is Why?
Farage calls the Johnson Deal a con-trick and says it will cure nothing (I suspect he is right) He also decides against an eighth attempt to get elected as an MP. Immediate accusations that he is bottling it, make up your own mind.
John McDonnell says the Labour spending plan is fully costed and will be published as a Grey Book with the Manifesto. I shall reserve judgement until I have seen that. I think he's too old a dog to put up hostages to fortune.
No doubt that many informal arrangements about standing aside are being made, could be interesting.
All bad news for Johnson, bluster and buffoonery aren't going to cut it this time as long as his feet are held to the fire of open debate.
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest... Don't you just love the response of the governor of California to a tweet by Trump criticising him for not 'cleaning the forest floors' and thus causing the wildfires. At the same time he threatened to withdraw Federal Funding. The governor told him that as a climate change denier he was excused participation in the debate. Game, set and match!

[plaques]

Without fail each time there is a general election some group or other will declare that they will leave the UK if the Labour Party comes to power. The current 2019 election is set to follow the standard pattern but with the addition that Corbyn will be a disaster. In the past it has been celebrities, minor business men and bankers but this time the people making the pitch are the 1% richest in the UK.Super 1% Painting themselves as patriots they feel its their duty to take their money with them and sink the economy to show who is boss.
Quote : Hargreaves said he paid about £40m in tax last year, and “if 50 of us [the biggest taxpayers] got on a plane and left, that would put a big hole in the chancellor’s budget”.

Hargreaves has and estimated fortune of £3bn but appears to begrudge paying any more tax. The nature of his £40m tax payment isn't specified in whether it includes all forms of taxes that a corporation would pay or just his personal income tax. If it was the latter we would be looking at earnings in excess of £80m per year. Hardly something to be sniffed at.

The revolt by the 1% are based on the 2017 Labour Manifesto, whether this will be modified to remove what many saw as 'own goals' we will have to wait and see.

My prediction is that this exodus will never happen. There are still far too many loop holes to be closed before before Corbyn or the tax man can hope to quarantine these international oligarchs.

[Tizer]

I've persisted for 3.5 years in my belief that Brexit will never happen but I must admit that I didn't consider the possibility that it might fail due to Nigel Farage! Now Tory Eurosceptic MP Steve Baker says Farage risks becoming the "man who threw away Brexit".

[PanBiker]

The revolt by the 1% are based on the 2017 Labour Manifesto, whether this will be modified to remove what many saw as 'own goals' we will have to wait and see.

As an all inclusive and member driven party, I have just contributed my views to the discussion for the next Labour Party Manifesto. Every member is encouraged to make their views known which are then included in the discussions.

My contribution was based around the electoral process and governace in general:

Age of majority should be 16

Do away with first past the post in favour of some form of PR

Abandon the Westminster refurbishment white elephant and the gladitorial "us and them" accross the chamber model. Replace with a purpose built centre of government in the middle of the country adjacent to all the transport links. Build it "in the round" and include on site accomodation for all MP's

Introduce compulsory voting.

[Tizer]

I've not seen anything on this thread about Dominic Cummings handing over the Conservative Party election campaign to Australian Isaac Levido last week. Cummings had said some time ago that he would be leaving at this time due to needing a hospital operation. Levido is a very different kettle of fish with a strong reputation for political campaigns. LINK

[plaques]

Boris Johnson's excursion into digital media by sending selective quotes from much longer reports has foundered on the rocks. Johnson Message. It would appear that in one move he has upset a main mental health charity, British Heart Foundation and selectively quoted a BBC report all in an attempt to put a positive spin on the NHS in a marginal seat area. If this is a sample of what is being pushed to influence voters one wonders what is happening in Facebook land where individuals are not aware of the true context of the full reports. This man can't be trusted. Of course he will say that the note was sent unauthorised by a lowly special advisor (spad) in draft form before it was fully vetted.

[Tripps]

sending selective quotes from much longer reports

I'm shocked I tell you