POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

We will have to wait and see Ken to find out if Ribble Valley play ball with Pendle. At the moment I am trying to interpret the runes in Westminster. Sunak appears to be ignoring the loss of over a thousand councillors and is keeping a low profile while the Party goes back to the old strategy of wheeling one minister out per day to act as mouthpiece to the masses. Yesterday it was the turn of Lucy Frazer. SeeTHIS for her stint.
"The government needs to reflect and do more, Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer has said following bruising losses for her party in local elections in England. Some Conservatives have blamed Rishi Sunak after the party lost more than 1,000 councillors in Thursday's vote. But, speaking to the BBC, Ms Frazer said that, despite a difficult start to the Tories' campaign, voters "were beginning to give Rishi Sunak credit"."
Earlier she had been wheeled out to deny specific charges of police over-zealousness in arresting protesters before they had done anything wrong.
Wes Streeting (Shadow Health Secretary) repeats the optimistic claims made by Starmer about the general election but adds the codicil that 'we shall not be comp0-lacent'. As you know I have grave doubts myself.
I hear what you say Ken about a drift to Labour but I note that in the Barnoldswick Ward Jenny Purcell the Tory got twice as many votes as the Labour candidate. Not a good sign.

[plaques]

Culture Secretary Lucy Frazer tried to argue that a drop in the rate of inflation was equivalent to a tax cut. So when prices rise at 5% instead of 10% this is seen as getting money back similar to cutting taxes. Anybody who sat their 11+ can see the flaw in this argument. The real problem was that she seemed sincere when she was saying it. But there again she's part of the Cabinet so all is forgiven.

[PanBiker]

I hear what you say Ken about a drift to Labour but I note that in the Barnoldswick Ward Jenny Purcell the Tory got twice as many votes as the Labour candidate. Not a good sign.

We haven't had any Labour Councillors in Barlick since Sally and Linda MacSween won back in the 90's. Not for want of trying, Euan has stood three times now and yet folk still vote like turkeys voting for Christmas in some cases. Part of the problem is that a lot of folk don't know what the various different tiers of the council are actually responsible for. They don't seem to know that it is the County Council that do the potholes (or not) or that the parks are now the responsibility of the Town Council. Borough Council empties the bins.

For the next General Election the main hurdle will be getting a PPC in place as soon as possible. Our last Labour MP Gordon was selected and in place as a PPC 18 months before the election. That was of course when the CLP ran it's own long and short lists, hustings and selection.

[plaques]

Euan has stood three times now and yet folk still vote like turkeys voting for Christmas in some cases.

Margaret Thatcher was right in selling off the council houses at knockdown prices. People bought them and became capitalists, (with a small 'c') some then sold them to release a profit and re-rented. After buying a better second hand car and going to Spain on holiday they became budding entrepreneur capitalists, (with a big 'C'). Nowt as queer as folk.

[Stanley]

Scanning the piste this morning I have to announce that so far, there is no politics to report.
Sunak is keeping his head down because there is nothing he can say that can make things any better, Starmer is limiting himself to one message, the Council Elections 'prove' that Labour is on track to win the General Election in 18 months. (he is wrong of course. All the results show is that the Tories are hated)
Meanwhile the economy flat lines, Major corruption scandals like the Teeside Freeport and massive fraud in the reclamation of land continue with the only serious reporting on them being done by Private Eye. And what did we do yesterday? We took the day off and had a Bank Holiday of course.....

[plaques]

Suella Braverman's hard line laws are not going down well. The MET's ham fisted attempt to use the new 'anti demonstration' laws Link has finished up with egg on their faces. David Davis was the only Conservative MP to vote against them and like Brexit he could see that they were never going to work. At the moment only David Davies and David Gauke seem to have any common sense.

[Stanley]

THIS BBC report backs up what you say Ken.
"A controversial new law under which six anti-monarchy protesters were arrested on Coronation day has been criticised as too crude and too broad. Conservative MP David Davis has called for the law to be scrutinised by the Home Affairs Select Committee. Ex-Greater Manchester police chief Sir Peter Fahy said "poor police officers" were left to interpret the law "passed only a few days" before the Coronation. But Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the law was "the right thing to do". The Metropolitan Police has expressed "regret" over the arrests after a review found there was no proof the six protesters with anti-monarchy group Republic, who were arrested when their vehicle was stopped near the procession route, were planning to use "lock on" devices."
Sunak has not done himself any favours by automatically supporting Braverman. It looks as though another of her 'strategies' might be biting the dust. Has she done anything that has led to any improvement yet? All she does is spend money we haven't got on schemes that do not work. Did you see that the accommodation barge has arrived in Falmouth for modification to house twice as many prisoners? (Sorry, temporary guests of the State.)
See THIS for Starmer's latest step in the fight to get elected in 18 months.
Sir Keir Starmer has refused to rule out a coalition with the Lib Dems if Labour fails to win a majority at the next general election. Asked if he would do a deal with the Lib Dems, the Labour leader told the BBC this was a "hypothetical question". But he said he would never do a deal with the SNP because of a "fundamental disagreement" on Scottish independence.
The bottom line is that he is desperate and would do anything to get into power. I suspect he has realised that all his bragging based on the Local Election results is just that, hot air. He is not guaranteed a working majority in a general election, indeed he is not even guaranteed a majority over the Tories.
Yes, you're right. I have a very bad feeling about his bid for power. I think he is the wrong man and fear that it will get to be too close to the election to change leader when the truth finally dawns on the rest of the party.

[plaques]

The new laws and amendments are generally just hot air that will crumble when challenged. If the 'Republic' group were to bring a civil case for unlawful arrest they would undoubtedly win.

Did you see that the accommodation barge has arrived in Falmouth for modification to house twice as many prisoners? (Sorry, temporary guests of the State.)

Stop the Boats is another smoke and mirrors promise.

We will pass new laws to stop small boats, making sure that if you come to this country illegally, you are detained and swiftly removed.


Providing they pass laws making it 'illegal' to come by any other method than the approved method they will be detained and swiftly removed is open to debate. We may have UK laws to do this but as things stand International laws say its unlawful.

The bottom line is that he is desperate and would do anything to get into power. I suspect he has realised that all his bragging based on the Local Election results is just that, hot air. He is not guaranteed a working majority in a general election, indeed he is not even guaranteed a majority over the Tories.

And the Tories are desperate to maintain power that they will put the Party before the people. Starmer would be a fool to say he would form a coalition with the Lib Dems this would split the voting and put Labour in a weaker position. The right-wing media will push doubts in Starmer for all they are worth knowing that all that matters is being in power that counts. Starmer, love him or loath him, is the only hope that Labour has of winning. If you're not in power you can't do anything. Like it or not the only way of getting a Labour government is to support Starmer otherwise its decades of austerity to feed the 1%.

[PanBiker]

Starmer, love him or loath him, is the only hope that Labour has of winning. If you're not in power you can't do anything. Like it or not the only way of getting a Labour government is to support Starmer otherwise its decades of austerity to feed the 1%.

It's the latter for me Ken and you have hit the nail on the head for a lot of Labour Party members. We have missed the boat on sacking him off. As you say, you can't do anything or set any policies until you are in power. Time will tell, we don't have PPC yet but are promised action on that front shortly.

[Stanley]

I know you both talk good sense but I am so disappointed in the man. He looked like a good prospect three years ago but not now. You are both right and of course I will fall into line but he is still the wrong person.
Looking at the latest political news THIS Seems to sum up the general picture, confusion.
The government has ditched its plan for thousands of EU-era laws to expire automatically at the end of the year. The plan - dubbed a post-Brexit bonfire - would see laws that were copied over to the UK after Brexit vanish, unless specifically kept or replaced. Critics of the bill had voiced concern that it could lead to important legislation falling away by accident. But the climbdown is likely to trigger anger from Brexit-backing Conservative MPs and members of the House of Lords. Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch said the cut-off point would be replaced with a list of 600 laws the government wants to replace by the end of the year. In a statement, she said the change would be made through an amendment when the Retained EU Law Bill returns to Parliament next week.
Johnson kept saying 'Get Brexit Done'. It would appear that we are nowhere near done.
I note also that another political party, Plaid Cymru is in trouble. To paraphrase what Jellicoe said at the battle of Jutland; "There seems to be something wrong with our political parties".
See THIS for another post-Johnson matter that needs a bit of attention.
Taxpayers are being billed up to £245,000 to cover the cost of Boris Johnson's Partygate inquiry lawyers. The former PM is being investigated by MPs over whether he misled them over lockdown parties in Downing Street. He is facing growing calls to cover the legal costs himself, as the bill for his defence team increased this week for a second time. The BBC has learned the Treasury did not sign off the decision to use public money to pay the bill.
These people talk about a quarter of a million pounds as though it was petty cash.

[plaques]

See THIS for another post-Johnson matter that needs a bit of attention.
Taxpayers are being billed up to £245,000 to cover the cost of Boris Johnson's Partygate inquiry lawyers. The former PM is being investigated by MPs over whether he misled them over lockdown parties in Downing Street. He is facing growing calls to cover the legal costs himself, as the bill for his defence team increased this week for a second time.

Everything that Boris gets his fingers in appears to be OPM (other peoples money) . Bring your own booze. I'll have that wallpaper. Holidays in friends foreign villas. Can you get me a £900,000 loan. the list appears endless.

Bank of England all set to raise interest rates again to curb inflation that according to Jeremy Hunt is on its way down. Food inflation is still rising so taking money out of peoples pocket before they get it won't do a damned thing about bringing food prices down. People will still need to eat. Just be patient if it doesn't work this year we will promise you that it will work next year.

TransPenine railway bites the dust. Funny how the announcement is made just after the local elections.

[Stanley]

Handy wasn't it Ken, and the Coronation was a good bit of distraction from the immediate shock of losing over 1000 councillors.
See THIS for another small problem that has dropped into Sunak's in-tray. He says that the U-turn on scrapping EU laws was necessary because of a collision with reality. Rees Mogg has never let reality deter him from his outlandish views.
Former Conservative minister Jacob Rees-Mogg has accused Rishi Sunak of breaking his word after the government ditched plans to allow thousands of EU-era laws to expire by the end of 2023. Defending the move, Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch told MPs the government was still "ending EU supremacy" but just "changing how we are doing it". She said it showed Brexiteers could be "pragmatic" and "do what is right". But Mr Rees-Mogg said the deadline would "make Whitehall work". Speaking to the BBC's Today programme, he said: "It is hard enough to motivate Whitehall at the best of times - they are not necessarily coming into the office, they don't seem to be working with the efficiency one would like. "Without a deadline, nothing will happen and we will retain these EU laws for a long time." Mr Rees-Mogg, who championed the deadline when he was business secretary last year, said getting rid of the laws would help make the UK's economy more competitive and reduce inflation. Of the PM, he said: "He has broken his word. This is very serious in my view".
The reality is that Brexit is turning out to be a disaster. The UK has the worst inflation problem and the slowest recovery of any major Western nation and the reason is perfectly clear to anyone who is not blinkered by weird views on sovereignty and national pride. Apart from the structural weaknesses of our new trading relations with the EU which automatically result in a 5% loss of activity there are the physical matters of handling the huge increase in paper work which leaving the EU has generated. These matters have consequences and we saw one of them yesterday when the BofE were forced to raise interest rates again in an attempt to rein in the inflation. They are openly admitting that there is a problem and further rate increases are possible. Industry experts say it will rise to 5% later this year.
This collides head on with Sunak's 'promise' to halve the inflation rate this year and get it down to 2% the year after. The BofE says that it can't forecast any fall on that scale and says directly that 2% inflation is a long way in the future. This certainly means that the next general election will be fought under the shadow of higher inflation than any other nation and so there is a clue as to where the Tories should be attacked. "It's the economy, Stupid!"
Back to Rees Mogg. His intervention is not going to help. Sunak's project, to save the Tory Party is unravelling. If he still manages to get away with it it will be down to lousy opposition and that is what I fear the most. We have an open goal and no striker.

[plaques]

Listened to a painful 7 minutes of Andrew Bailey trying to avoid answering if people were poorer. After a global tour of all the worlds problems with various head winds and a smokescreen that was getting thicker by the minute the best he could do was to say that those on low incomes would feel it more that others. Then about the recent rise in bank rate to reduce inflation. But wasn't inflation on its way down. Then came an admission that the rate of inflation was a technical measure against previous rises. Something that OG has been banging on about for ages. The current rises need slowing and hence the increase in bank rate. But then something never said before the rises already in the pipeline would become really effective at the end of the year when the mortgage fixed terms came to an end. The question becomes what are the current increases for?

[Stanley]

To placate the markets and the IMF Ken. I think that's the short answer. The bank has to be seen to be orthodox.

[Stanley]

I see that Priti 'Orrible leads thye political news this morning. See THIS for a BBC report of a speech she is expected to give today.
Former Home Secretary Priti Patel will blame "those in power and control" of the Conservative Party for their heavy local election losses in a speech later. Ms Patel will say "errors and mistakes made by a minority in Westminster have cost [the] party dearly". She will be among several high-profile Tory MPs speaking to the Conservative Democratic Organisation, a new grassroots pro-Boris Johnson group. The Tory Party said it had no comment. In extracts of the speech, seen by the BBC, Ms Patel is highly critical of the Conservative Party's leadership. She is expected to say that some colleagues in Westminster "have done a better job at damaging our party" over the last year than the opposition, left-wing campaign groups and "our enemies in the media combined". The Conservative MP for Witham will suggest that if government leaders spent more time with the grassroots of the party "they would be more in touch with the people and with our values".
Just what Sunak needed, another sub-group in his party sniping from the sidelines.
If THIS report is accurate Suella Braverman is once more ignoring the advice of her officials and pressing on with a possibly flawed policy.
Civil servants advised the home secretary to abandon plans to house asylum seekers at a former RAF base in Lincolnshire, it has emerged. In an email from February, seen by the BBC, a senior Home Office official advised Suella Braverman to stop work on the site at RAF Scampton. The official noted "significant challenges to progress" on the site. The Home Office said internal departmental discussions were a routine part of its decision-making.
One wonders if the only reason Braverman survives at the Home Office is because the problems facing her are so grave that nobody would take the job if she was sacked.
Did any of you hear Jeremy Hunt making optimistic noises about the economy, talking about 'stronger than expected growth' when we have reports like THIS.
The UK grew only weakly in the first three months of the year with the economy hit by strikes, cost of living pressures and wet weather. The economy grew by just 0.1% between January and March, figures showed, and it remains smaller than levels seen before the Covid pandemic. The UK is also lagging behind growth seen in other major economies. On Thursday, the Bank of England said it was more optimistic about prospects, and the UK would avoid a recession. Its comments came after the Bank increased interest rates to 4.5% from 4.25% as part of its continued attempt to slow soaring prices. The ONS figures showed that while the economy grew slightly over the first three months of 2023, in March it contracted by 0.3%, with car sales and the retail sector having a bad month. The economy is still 0.5% smaller than pre-pandemic levels, the ONS said.
Perhaps Mr Hunt has access to sources that the ONS have missed?
We are getting so used to terrible news that bad news seems to be an improvement.

[plaques]

Did any of you hear Jeremy Hunt making optimistic noises about the economy, talking about 'stronger than expected growth' when we have reports like THIS.

I was struck by how our bright eyed smiling Chancellor was talking up the economy. He even went on as far as to say that the monthly figures for growth were encouraging.This was in spite of the growth (GDP) in March being in negative territory (-0.3%). He is probably hiding behind the fact that 'growth' has over twenty separate elements. Some increasing and some decreasing but in the latest measure the total is negative. Possibly he is homing in on the fact that spending on sewage and sewage treatment has gone up. (more sh*t in the pipeline). One of the big factors in the current abysmal growth figures is that the service industry has also gone negative. The service sector has traditionally been one of the strongest performers of the UK economy. Now we are seeing ordinary incomes squeezed to a point that hospitality and discretionary spending outlets are taking a hit.
Meanwhile the Bank of England are saying that inflation is more persistent than thought hence the rise in interest rates and food inflation could continue to the end of the year.

Kemi Badenoch's cutting back on the number of 'retained EU laws' is causing some upset with the extreme Brexit nutters. They are after absolute chaos not a practical approach to weed out some of the laws no longer applicable. Badenoch is not saying that the current bill will be stopped just only that it will be slowed down until a later date. So control will still move away from parliament to the Cabinet and that 4000+ laws is still the ultimate target. The storm by the ultra right-wingers is just a smokescreen to make people think it has been stopped.

[Stanley]

Ken, it seems to me that the Tory Party is collectively in a state of denial at the moment. They tell us that the economy is performing 'better than expected'. The meaning of that depends entirely on how badly you expected it to perform I suppose.
The loss of over 1000 Tory councillors is put down to being in power so long and is a natural part of politics.
Starmer is also not recognising that Labour only made the gains they did because of the hatred being directed at the Tories. The Lib-Dems had a genuine revival taking many seats that should have gone to Labour if they were as strong in the country as Starmer would like us to believe.
Why are we not hearing anything about Northern Ireland? Why does a Tory Party supporter like Dyson turn against the government? When are we going to see some meaningful policies coming out of Westminster?

[plaques]

Boris Johnson's Brexit deal, or should it be called NO deal, was based on madman's logic. The thinking being that only a madman would sink the UK economy to get their way. The EU were expected to cave in and allow the UK its 'cake and eat it' demand, ie : leaving the EU on UK terms, has we have seen the EU wouldn't play this game and assessed that they could live with their losses and allowed the UK to go their way. Johnson and Frost continued to play the madman with Northern Ireland but lost again when Biden stepped in. The Tory far right, the ERG and Rees-Mogg gang, still think that creating total UK chaos will give THEM total control. Gradually its dawning on the electorate that voting for Johnson's oven ready deal didn't mean that things couldn't get any worse, time has shown they were wrong. The Labour Party has ben out of power 13 years and there is nothing they can do but offer up a better future. Meanwhile the Tories are offering better times round the corner as they have done for the past 10 years. The question is will the electorate fall for the three card trick again. Long live the King. Sovereignty. Take back control. Make Britain Great again. Don't let Labour spoil the good things to come. Blah, blah blah.

[Stanley]

Your view of the possible future is very close to mine Ken. I have no confidence in Starmer's vision of a bright future for Labour. I feel that politics is dead.
(Although yesterday I couldn't help thinking that something quite important is about top happen, pressures in the Tory Party seem to be building.)
See THIS. Could Shapps possibly be attempting to disarm criticism for the storm that will hit when it becomes apparent that the boats haven't stopped, Inflation hasn't halved and the NHS is in a worse state than ever?

[plaques]

Although yesterday I couldn't help thinking that something quite important is about top happen, pressures in the Tory Party seem to be building.)

When Johnson had his Brexit rebels he withdrew the party whip on 21 of them some of them quite distinguished names. This uprising is not quite the same but unless Sunak deals with it he has lost control of the party agenda. The big name rebels are Jacob Rees-Mogg, Priti Patel, Iain Duncan Smith. and other back benchers, Larry the cat is not involved. The initial thinking is that they are pushing for Boris Johnson to return although some see it as an opportunity to offer themselves as leader. Remembering that the Tories will always put the Party before the Country it's doubtful if Sunak will risk withdrawing the whip and take his chances on a general election. The way things are looking the Prime Minister is in a very weak position and he will have to do what he is told. A situation that isn't good for the country.

[Stanley]

I think that's a very fair assessment of what is going on and THIS report by Chris Mason is broadly on the same lines.
And then there is the National Conservatism Conference (NatCon), an American import, with an emphasis on patriotism, Brexit and low taxes. This three-day gathering at Westminster, which got under way today, is expected to attract quite a few Tory MPs, who will listen to speeches from right wing commentators and Donald Trump-supporting US Senator JD Vance, among others. NatCon has gathered once before in the UK, but it only involved a few dozen academics when it did. This time it is attracting senior politicians - cabinet ministers Suella Braverman and Michael Gove and former cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was also at the CDO conference in Bournemouth. ivately, plenty are scathing about Mr Sunak. Phrases that have made their way into my notebook in the last few days: He is "a reverse firework." He has a "quiescent defeatism." These two conferences have generated excitement in some parts of the Tory Party. Asked why this was the case, my contact told me: "Rishi has a backhanded ability to enthuse people in the opposite direction." Ouch. But very few think it would be a good idea to try to remove him.
THIS is puzzling me. What is Starmer up to? Is this the major initiative that will mark Labour as an electable alternative to the Tories? I'll leave you to answer that question.

[plaques]

I have a friend, a Frenchman who came to England with his degree and married raised a family and worked here for forty+ years, paid all his taxes etc. Yet can't vote. Clearly this is wrong. The media will try to spin it that an 'illegal' immigrant finds a job and is able to vote. As always there's a balance at which point they should have a say, vote, in what affect their lives. We shall have to wait and see what comes out of it.

[Stanley]

I didn't know that could happen Ken. I agree about your friend.
See THIS for what seems like a serious challenge to the government.
One of the world's biggest carmakers has called on the government to renegotiate part of the Brexit deal or risk losing parts of its car industry. Stellantis, which makes Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen and Fiat had committed to making electric vehicles in the UK. But it has now said it is no longer able to meet Brexit trade rules on where parts are sourced. The government is "determined" that the UK will remain competitive in car manufacturing, a spokesperson said. Stellantis called on the government to come to an agreement with the EU to keep rules as they are until 2027.
'Sovereignty' isn't seen as a valuable asset by the people who have to make industry work. Could we be about to see an attack of common sense?

[Stanley]

Once again the political 'news' is nothing but a negative report. See THIS account of Sunak's latest statement on migration.
he prime minister has refused to explicitly commit to a Conservative promise to get net migration levels below where they were four years ago. The Tory manifesto before the general election in 2019 promised that "overall numbers will come down". Net migration - the number of people moving to the UK minus the number who leave - was 226,000 in the year to March 2019. In the year to June 2022, net migration hit an all-time high of 504,000. The latest number, for the year to December 2022, will be published next week - and is widely expected to be higher still.
The bottom line is that we have completely lost control of our borders and Sunak knows it. Every forecast of immigration numbers over the last ten years has been exceeded and he knows that next week's figures will do the same and trigger a storm of protest. Speaking to reporters en route to the G7 Summit in Japan, Rishi Sunak said: "I've inherited some numbers, I want to bring the numbers down." In other words, 'not me guv!'.
"At a meeting of the Council of Europe in Iceland on Tuesday, the European Union agreed to begin conversations about the UK having a cooperation agreement with Frontex, the European Border and Coastguard Agency."
This will not be exactly music to the ears of the ERG and others on the Right wing......
See THIS for some hard facts about one of Johnson's major 'pledges' to the country. To 'build forty new hospitals'. That's not quite what has happened....
Building work is yet to start for 33 of the government's 40 promised new hospitals in England, the BBC has found. Most are still waiting to hear what their final budget will be for the projects with a 2030 deadline. Only two are finished and open. Ministers aimed to have six ready for 2025 - but none of this group has full planning permission or funding yet. The government insists it remains committed to meeting the targets. "We are developing a new national approach to constructing hospitals so they can be built more rapidly, ensure value for money, and we continue to work closely with all trusts on their plans," an official said.
In other words, another promise which seems highly unlikely to be kept.

[plaques]

Speaking to reporters en route to the G7 Summit in Japan, Rishi Sunak said: "I've inherited some numbers, I want to bring the numbers down." In other words, 'not me guv!'.

. That seems to be true for every Prime Minister for 13 years. The clock starts again with all the previous promises, pledges and oven ready deals totally ignored by the next incumbent. "Stick with us don't let Corbyn spoil it". Somebody should tell them that Corbyn was never part of Gordon Brown's Labour government and was never Prime Minister but now painted as Scrooge in Dickens 'Ghost of Christmas Past' but with no chance of redemption. Nobody expects a government to say " look at the balls up I've made" and as things stand they can rely on the right-wing media not to mention their abysmal performance and yet Suella Braverman is blaming the Left-wing media, is there such a thing? for being against her hard line actions.

PS. The water companies are sorry about the excessive discharges. That's a turd up for the books.