POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report.....
20 October 2024. Updated 1 hour ago.
Israel has carried out more air strikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon, including on branches of a bank that it says is supporting Hezbollah. Explosions were heard in southern Beirut's Dahieh district, an area controlled by Hezbollah, as well as the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. It is unclear whether there are any casualties. The Israeli military earlier warned people living in 25 areas in Lebanon - including 14 in the capital Beirut - that it planned to carry out strikes throughout the night. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) also said it would target banks and other financial infrastructure supporting Hezbollah.
The tragedy continues......

[Tizer]

I suspect the US has suggested they hit the banks to try and deter them from bombing the nuclear and gas facilities. It will have Putin thinking about doing the same to Ukraine.

[Stanley]

Looking back to my reading of the history of the pre-war years in both World Wars I am struck by the similarities with what we see happening now.
Or is that just the ramblings of an old man......?
Looking at this morning's news feeds in politics we seem to be obsessed by the minutiae of UK politics rather than what is actually happening in the world. I am reminded of Winston Churchill's activities when out of power in the late 1930s. He was of course accused of scaremongering and being alarmist.

[Stanley]

I think I agree with THIS ruling set out in a BBC report....
Firearms officers facing trial over shooting suspects are to be given anonymity unless they are convicted, under reforms announced by the home secretary. Yvette Cooper's announcement comes days after police officer Martyn Blake was cleared of murdering Chris Kaba, who was shot in the head during a vehicle stop in Streatham, London, in September 2022. Cooper said there would be a "presumption of anonymity for firearms officers subject to criminal trial". The Home Office said later the right was still "subject to judicial discretion in individual cases". Cooper added the Kaba case came against a "backdrop of longstanding concerns" about police accountability, standards and confidence. The reform is part of a new package aimed at improving police accountability, and includes several measures proposed by the previous government in March.

[Stanley]

See THIS report.
Windrush campaigners have expressed concern that the home secretary has yet to announce when she will implement a key recommendation from the government’s review. On Thursday, Yvette Cooper announced an additional £1.5m of funding to help victims apply for compensation overseen by a Windrush Commissioner - but did not hand over recommended powers to a watchdog. Campaigners told the BBC they were happy with Labour's approach, but thought the new system lacked "teeth". A Home Office source described the changes as the “first set of announcements on Windrush since the election,” adding that the focus had been on priorities highlighted by campaigners and victims.
Why are we so tardy when it comes to righting historic wrongs?

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report which speculates on the contents of the budget. (Or is it leaks?)
The chancellor is set to increase the amount employers in the UK pay in National Insurance to raise £20bn for public services including the NHS. Rachel Reeves is also expected to use Wednesday's Budget to lower the threshold for when employers start paying the tax, but is not likely to introduce the levy to employer pensions contributions. Employers currently pay National Insurance of 13.8% on a worker's earnings above £175 a week. The move is thought to be the single largest revenue raiser of next week's Budget, but other tax rises are also expected.

Plenty of pics of Starmer sweating in Samoa which reinforces what David said about his suits.....

[Tizer]

From today's Financial Times. With + or - 3 percentage points margin of error it could go either way...

[Stanley]

It's very troubling Peter. We can only hope for a miracle.....
It makes Starmer et al versus the deficit look easy......

[Tizer]

The US election has become a contest between male and female voters, the former supporting Trump, the latter Harris. The Democrats are emphasising that once you enter that voting booth and make your mark nobody else but you knows who you voted for. The reason they're putting out this message is that Republican women tend to vote Republican because their husbands tell them to.

More on that here...
`Katty Kay: What’s really behind America’s men v women election' LINK

[Stanley]

Trump and our budget dominate the political news except for one other matter.... See THIS report of a Labour MP having the whip withdrawn....
Labour MP Mike Amesbury has been suspended from the party and has had the whip withdrawn, after CCTV footage emerged appearing to show him punching a man to the ground. In footage obtained by the Daily Mail,, external the Runcorn and Helsby MP is apparently seen continuing to hit the man as he lies in the street. Cheshire Police said a 55-year-old man has been voluntarily interviewed under caution in relation to the incident and has since been released pending further enquiries.
The US election draws ever more closer and completely baffles me. I can't understand why anyone in their right mind could see Donald Trump as fit for office. End of story, I simply don't understand.

[Tripps]

I can't understand why anyone in their right mind could see Donald Trump as fit for office. End of story, I simply don't understand.

I try not to get involved in other peoples' battles, but last night during a cutaway from Sky News, watched quite a bit of Trump's Madison Square Gardens rally. I heard him promise not to tax workers' overtime or tips, (a big thing in America) , and to make car loans 'tax deductible' so long as the car was made in the USA. He also promised to halve energy bills within a year of being elected, and reminded the worshippers that he was the only President in the last 82 years who had not taken the nation to war. (He mentioned ISIS as unfinished business).

That might get a few votes. . .

[PanBiker]

I can't understand why anyone in their right mind could see Donald Trump as fit for office. End of story, I simply don't understand.

Nether can I. He is a draft dodger and a convicted felon (34 counts) to boot and comes over to me in his ramblings of threats and rhetoric as someone who is quite deranged.

Have you noticed when he speaks that he drops a semitone in his voice at the end of sentences to reinforce his tirades of doom.

Not a fit person to have access to "the football"

[Tripps]

It's a puzzle that with such a publicly available record anyone would vote for him isn't it? But with full knowledge of it all - many will do so. I don't think I would, if he was a candidate in an election here. I think however that unlike his good friend Vladimir Putin, he stops short of having his opponents murdered, or poisoned, or sent to prison in Siberia which is a blessing.

It won't be long now. . .

[Tizer]

We had our long-time favourite plumber here this morning to do our boiler service. Also a leaky TRV had to be replaced so he got another plumber to help him so they could keep on schedule. We'd never met the other one before but it was an eye opener. He seemed a reasonable bloke but when Trump's name cropped up in chat he revealed that he's a Trump supporter. He gave some reasons but it was obvious he was getting misinformation from social media. It wasn't worth trying to debate with him, he's convinced Trump's what is needed now. We quickly changed the subject!

Here's a bit of news from BBC News Live today...
`Philadelphia DA sues Musk fundraising group to stop $1m lottery'
Philadelphia's district attorney is suing Elon Musk's pro-Trump fundraising group, America PAC, to halt a daily $1m lottery. The organisation was holding a daily giveaway to registered voters that signed a petition to "protect the constitution" - a scheme that prompted warnings to Musk from the Department of Justice (DoJ) and speculation among legal analysts that the plan may be illegal. The suit from Larry Krasner marks the first time that Musk has received a legal challenge on the giveaway. Despite the warnings, America PAC has so far continued with the lottery, giving away $9m so far, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports. Nearly half has been given to residents of Pennsylvania, a battleground state that could hold the keys to the White House.

[Stanley]

I warned bat the beginning of this Labour Administration that the first time we heard the phrase 'sound money' we would know that Labour was making the same mistake the Tories made after the Great War and in response to the credit crisis of 2008. 'Fixing the foundations' is the equivalent and that's Starmer's slogan for the budget.
The Budget will embrace the "harsh light of fiscal reality" but "better days are ahead", Sir Keir Starmer has said in a speech ahead of Wednesday's announcement. Speaking in Birmingham, the prime minister said his government would take "tough decisions", opting to raise taxes in order "to prevent austerity and rebuild public services". Although he did not set out many details of the Budget, he did say the £2 bus fare cap in England, which had been expected to end, would instead be replaced by a £3 cap, funded to the end of 2025.
This is more austerity in a different guise. It is the opposite of deficit funded finance which is what Keynes would have proposed.....

[Stanley]

See THIS piece by Chris Mason in this morning's political news....
This will be a big Budget. Big tax rises, big borrowing, big spending. And big politically – because it will set the political landscape for the years to come. Chancellor Rachel Reeves will promise that she will “invest, invest, invest” and will tell the Commons: "My belief in Britain burns brighter than ever. "More pounds in people’s pockets. An NHS that is there when you need it. "An economy that is growing, creating wealth and opportunity for all." Note the upbeat tone, after no shortage of the bleak from ministers recently.
This is crowd management on a large scale. We are meant to suddenly become optimistic and cheerful but as always the harsh bite of reality will set the tone and I am afraid it is not going to go as well as Starmer et al hope.

[Stanley]

I'm listening to the Chancellor..... She is still in full flow. All I am willing to say at the moment is that I am impressed, not only by how well she is presenting the Budget but on the contents. I think she is being admirably clear.
Later at 13;52. she has just sat down and I am still impressed. It was a very long speech but she made it clear and I am still impressed.....

[Whyperion]

Generally the budget could have been worse, taxing a few of the labour pet hates and cutting council house discounts on sales (who can afford to buy anyway). Markets liked it despite taxing share gains more and putting pension pots into IHT from 2027 ( which wont really affect a lot of lower income folk but might break some expected inheritances to some children when they best need cash - there is income tax on some pensions after death anyway hence the delay to work out the detail. The big problem to me is NI increase as a tax on jobs, the real terms extra cash for the NHS comes generally straight back to the treasury, and all I can see is more offshoring of jobs and technical ones to AI. Meanwhile those on benefits nudged more to work that probably isnt there. So smoke and mirrors , hope value, and a little less on borrowing costs as govt bond rates can go down a bit. I can see BoE interest rates falling half percent , certainly by end March 2025 which might be good for some people. Ukraine war meanwhile taking up some expenditure - but more will be needed to capital expenditure and it cannot all go on house (tower block flats) building. no money it seems for trains Colne-Skipton as the Huddersfield transpennine gets confirmed for money for electrification extensions ( indeed that I think was more re-confirming plans already announced under conservatives)

[Stanley]

Much too early to pass any sort of judgement on the content of yesterday's Budget but THIS morning-after assessment by Chris Mason seems fair. All I can say at the moment is that I wish Labour well but this is a very dangerous course in uncertain times.....

[Stanley]

See THIS for just one aspect of yesterday's budget that is causing concern.....
GPs, care homes and hospices have voiced concerns about the impact of the rise in employer National Insurance contributions announced in the Budget. The NHS and rest of the public sector are exempt from the tax rise - but that does not cover private care homes or hospices which provide NHS services. There is also confusion over the impact on GPs, many of which are run as small businesses.
This is only one of the areas of life that are going to be affected by one of the most complicated budgets of my life time. Only time will tell how near the correct course it is. I wish the Labour Party well.
Just a word for the clear blame that was laid on the Tory administration. It was fair I think and must not be forgotten. The unfunded spending and bad economic policies they indulged in are what brought us to this pass.

[Stanley]

Have a look at THIS
The government's new Value for Money chief has headed up several big projects that went massively over-budget. David Goldstone has previously worked as a top executive on the London Olympics, Parliament's restoration and HS2 high speed rail. He will now head up the government's new Office for Value for Money (OfVM), external, advising Chancellor Rachel Reeves on "how to root out waste and inefficiency", according to the Treasury. Downing Street defended his appointment, saying Mr Goldstone is a "highly experienced public sector leader" with a "track record of working on complex high-value programmes".
Of course Labour might be on to a winner, they do say that poachers make the best gamekeepers!

Have a look at THIS as well.
At just after 11:00 GMT on Saturday, at a swish spot up the road from Westminster, we will find out whether it will be Kemi Badenoch or Robert Jenrick who will replace Rishi Sunak as the Conservative Party leader. Ask most folk in and around politics who is most likely to win, and most say Badenoch.
I would prefer her as I know little about her (and it's time a woman had the job anyway!) but I am convinced that Jenrick is a wrong un.....

[Tizer]

...it's time a woman had the job anyway!

Talking of which...in a BBC report today on how women intend to vote in the US election....
Arizonian Rebecca Gau, 53, was a lifelong Republican until Trump ran for president. When she cast her vote for Joe Biden in 2020, she said it was a protest vote. But this time around, she says she feels excited to vote for Harris. “I felt like she could represent me as a practical American woman,” she told the BBC earlier in October. She said she’s tired of “toxic masculinity”, and she thinks other Republican women, like her, feel the same way.

[Stanley]

I heard her, I hope she's right!
I am listening to the announcement of the new Leader of the Tory Party from Millbank.
11:10. Kemi Badenoch is now the Leader of the Tory party. I'm glad Jenrick has lost, I think he was a disaster waiting to happen and our politics needs a competent opposition.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC article on the election of Kemi Badenoch as leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party.
Chris Mason. Political editor. Published 2 November 2024.
As the result of the Conservative leadership contest was read out, I was standing next to a group of MPs who have long backed Kemi Badenoch. There were gasps, hugs, even some tears. Many of them speak of her in superlative terms, seeing her as uniquely able among her generation of Conservatives. Why? They admire her conviction, her plain speaking, her big thinking. “She has real sparkle. It’s going to be fascinating seeing her taking on Starmer,” says one of them. “We are going to have to get used to something quite novel,” another tells me. “That she will actually answer the question.”
Badenoch will need every last bit of political savvy for the challenge she takes on.

[Tripps]

Badenoch will need every last bit of political savvy for the challenge she takes on.

So the leader of the oppostion has been democratically changed from a Hindu Brahmin multi millionaire, married to the daughter of an Indian Hindu multi billionaire, to a lady of the Yoruba tribe, born - Olukemi Olufunto Adegoke - who was an 'anchor baby' born in Wimbledon in 1980 to establish birthright, then whisked out of the country for sixteen years, until it became advantageous to return, for her further education, and to establish her 'working class' status by working a few shifts at McDonalds.

Will it ever be possible to have a politician who is in the game for altruistic motives, rather than reasons of self interest? Was it ever possible? Is it just easier to spot them in the instant information age? I doubt her tenure will be a success, but she will serve her purpose for the Tories.

It will be interesting to see next week who stays on board for the "wilderness years" and who has more sense, and bails, and keeps their powder dry.