POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Why is it that I would rather trust Mick Cash of the RMT than Chris Grayling in THIS matter? I have no faith whatsoever in this man and wouldn't trust him any further than I could throw Network Rail.

[Bruff]

Brexit will only deliver one of two things. Either a hard Brexit, where we are subject to WTO rules once Art50 has run its course and until we can agree a trade deal with the EU. Or us spending a lot of money and accepting free movement and the bulk of the EU’s standards and regulations etc. for an arrangment more or less the same as we have now. There is no need for a ‘plan’; these are the choices. Eventually the penny will drop with May and her merry men; after all individually and collectively the EU has said these are the only options consistently and before we even held the vote.

As fear of Slavic accents in the shop is what drove a lot of the ‘no’ vote then the only eventuality I can see is a hard Brexit as free movement is simply a non-runner for many in the UK. That this will be calamitous for the country, and I do mean calamitous, is not lost on the more sensible Ministers. They see the briefing papers.

Free movement is interesting actually. It’s only been a problem for the UK. Other EU countries have no problem with it at all, and never have. Mrs Le Pen has no problem with Greeks working in French restaurants or Bulgarians picking their onions and so on. Neither has that Austrian chap that ran the Green follow close. The rest of the EU have issues with migration from outside the EU and some countries are right on the front line here. But internal free movement? Not at all. Never really have. That’s why when Cameron tried to argue for a better deal on free movement for the UK in his pre-referndum negotiations, he basically got nowhere. Every argument he made was countered by evidence-based rebuttals by the Commission. Numbers of EU nationals in the UK? Plenty of countries have greater percentages of EU nationals. Concerntrations in certain areas of the UK? Concentrations are far greater in this part of these EU countries. Pressure on local services? Have you tried this that the Lituanians have done? Or this that the Germans have done? Bang. Bang. All arguments shot down.

Doesn’t bode well for future negotiations…..

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

A problem in the UK is that most of those people who object to free movement and want less immigration don't distinguish between the two. Nor do they distinguish between people coming from the EU and others from outside the EU, or between temporary and permanent movement. So they end up taking the easy option and are resistant to anyone coming into the UK...until they need a builder or plumber or nurse or carer....

One of those calamitous consequences that Bruff mentions is the effect on our position as number one in the world of scientific research, something that is too precious to put a value on in this modern knowledge-based 21st Century. For at least the last century Britain has been the most attractive destination for foreign scientists, partly due to its excellence in science, technology, engineering and maths and partly because of it tolerance of differences in nationality, race and religion. This could all be ruined by Brexit, not just because we lose freedom of movement with the EU but more widely because we are now sending out a message of intolerance and resistance to movement.

Intolerance is popping up everywhere. Just before I went away on the weekend an EU official made a comment about Brexit and Ian Duncan-Smith replied: "He should mind his own bloody business!". This was not only downright rude but it was wrong - Brexit is the business of the EU as much as it is the UK's business, just as Trump's election is as much our business as it is that of the USA. We're globally interconnected now and what happens in one country affects many others, for good or for bad. But Brexiteers and Trumpeteers alike are isolationists and want to live in their own little worlds. It's up to the rest of us to help them understand the new world they live in.

[Bruff]

Quite right Tizer.

Actually, just on this free movement thing the Home Secretary Mrs Rudd was speaking to I think the Brexit Committee the other day and she was saying to Mr Benn the Chair that when we leave then all EU nationals in the UK (over 3 million is the estimate) might very well have to carry some form of ID card to I guess confirm their status. Clearly the situation with Irish citizens then is an issue which she recognised (the Common Travel Area predates the EU) as well as the Northern Irish of whom one in five hold dual citizenship.

The Irish issue is well known but of more interest is the notion that UK citizens can swan around without an ID card but ‘foreigners’ will need one. In the rest of the EU, either everyone has to have an ID card, or no one does. Obviously, as a major part of the EU is that you can’t treat other EU-nationals differently to your own nationals. This is the case the world over: everyone has an ID card in Japan for example. In other places, no one has an ID card.

But it seems in the glorious uplands of the post-Brexit UK, only foreigners will have to have ID cards. I might be wrong but I think there is nowhere on earth, nowhere, that requires only foreigners to have relevant ID documentation (as opposed to work permits like the US Green Card). And I’m not sure what message even thinking this sends to the world other than we’ve gone quite mad. If nothing else, it’s completely unworkable: how would you decide who has to pull out their card? Folk who ‘look foreign’? How would that be decided? What about a British-born person with a foreign name? Would they have to show their birth certificate? When we lived in London we knew a French/Slovakian couple who had two London-born children with French/Slovakian forenames and a French surname but UK citizens both. Quite apart from these children perhaps having to see their parents ‘state their business’ and get documented, what about their future dealings?

Just crackers. Unworkable, and why no other place is stupid enough to do it – you simply cannot have a system when one group has ID and another group does not unless and only unless, you can tell what group a person fits into just by looking at them. But hey, it’s all of a piece with the endless stream of unworkable nonsense that has spewed out of the Brexit camp post the vote.

Richard Broughton

[PanBiker]

We could make them all wear some identifying mark on their clothing and for good measure mark the properties or businesses they occupy. Hang on, this sounds rather familiar, a nation has already tried that and look where that lead. History repeating itself if we let it, unfortunately there are some that will, time to take to the streets?

[Tizer]

Perhaps there'll be something similar to the Edict of Expulsion used by Edward I to remove Jews from England. Mind you, Henry IV soon summoned in a well-known Jewish physician from Bologna when he was ill and William III happily received 2 million guilders from Jews to help him get the Crown.

[Bruff]

Timely!

M Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, has given his first press conference on Brexit this morning. Pretty clear and as predicted. For the EU the priorities are:

EU unity
Future deal for the UK will not be better than membership
The four freedoms (goods, services, capital and labour) are indivisible
No negotiation until Art50, and no trade negotiations until after Art50.

So, what we call hard Brexit (though Barnier when asked said he did not know what hard or soft Brexit means, though he did know what Brexit means). He noted too that he will have visited all EU Member States (not the UK obviously) by early next year and has his team of 30 across all specialisms up and running. And he mentioned when questionned on Ireland that when he was an EU Commissioner he had the Irish Question in his portfolio and so well understands the implications of Brexit for that island (which is more than most Brexiters do and ever did). In briefing prior, it was noted our exit would come with a £50 billion bill as current best guess for honouring legally-binding committments. Seems fair; there was always going to be a bill.

In the face of this clarity we look to our PM who as I type is in Bahrain looking to drum up arms sales………..I’m sorry, drum up trade. Can we expect admirable clarity from her? Well, questioned on Brexit a few moments ago, she said she wasn’t ‘…..looking for a grey Brexit, or a white Brexit…..but a red, white and blue Brexit’. Seriously. That’s what she has just said. A ‘red, white and blue’ Brexit……

Is there a limit to how far one can be embarassed?

Richard Broughton

[plaques]

I seem to remember the colour of the French flag is "Red, White and Blue. or is it Blue, white and Red? Either way when we leave the EU are we bringing France, our traditional enemy, with us.

[Bruff]

Well quite Plaques. There are plenty of other EU countries that have a red, white and blue flag too. As well as the Paraguayan flag and interestingly, as we know the Pound these past 12 months has performed only marginally better than the Paraguayan Guarani. Perhaps this explains the reference to a red, white a blue Brexit?

Seriously, the PM’s statement is absurd, infantile and embarrassing. But at least it gives us all a laugh. As some have noted, we have mused on Brexit’s texture – 'hard' or 'soft'. We have now moved on to its colour. Next it will be what it tastes like and how it smells. How it sounds, or more properly what jingle it plays when pressed it is not clear. But some have speculated that the sound or jingle is, on endless loop: Rule Britannia, God Save the Queen, I Vow To Thee My Country, the Match of the Day and Only Fools and Horses theme tunes, Vindaloo by Fat Les and Agadoo by Black Lace, the latter being of course a lyrical expression of our negotiating position (all together now: Agadoo-doo-doo, push pineapple, shake a tree…)

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

Bruff mentions M Barnier. Where does Guy Verhofstadt come into all this, I thought he was the EU negotiator - or is he just one of many. Verhofstadt is said to be an Anglophile and races sports cars which sounds a bit too much like that Top Gear bloke, what's his name...you know, him, loud mouth and all that. Perhaps he'll want a fast Brexit.

[Stanley]

What good posts. I have a lot on my plate at the moment but even so I noted May and 'Red white and blue Brexit' She'll be legislating by diktat on Twitter next.
I might be wrong but I see parallels with Trump in that when May got her non-mandated Leadership of the Nasty Party she thought she had achieved power. Think back to the cheerful announcements about Just Managing Families. As I said at the time, based on some of the heartless decisions she made as Home Secretary, don't be fooled, I reckon she is at least as reactionary as her back-benchers. The acronym JAM has always signalled Jam Tomorrow to me.
She is not the only delusional person in 10 Downing Street. When the EU tossed their grenade into the Cabinet room yesterday by setting October 2018 as the deadline for the end of negotiations they blew the May assumption of two years breathing space out of the water and gave an indication of the way things are going to go. I have always said that once we send out the 28 letters triggering Article 50 we lose all our vaunted negotiating power and become supplicants. Bruff is right, even if we are allowed any concessions (which I very much doubt) they will be loaded with collateral commitments and we shall have to pay. All this was bad enough but then up pops Downing Street's resident buffoon to assure us that 18 months is absolutely fine and enough time. You couldn't make it up!
As for ID cards, we are so heavily monitored now that carrying an ID card shouldn't even be an issue. We all had them during WW2 and nobody turned a hair.
What particularly annoys me is the mantra "Brexit is a reality. The Remain tendency should accept it", this precludes rational debate and stifles Richard's realistic ministers if they exist. Clowns like Boris assure us that Brexit heralds the broad sunny uplands and the rebirth of England as a World Power. Note I say England, these fools have always seen Ireland, Wales and Scotland as colonies. There is no evidence that Cameron's Catastrophe is breeding anything other than chaos in our government. Europe looks on and wonders what the hell we are playing at with the Supreme Court verdict not expected until the New Year.... You couldn't make it up.

[Bruff]

Guy Verhofstadt is Flemish Belgian and a former Belgium PM. He is now an MEP and is leader of the Group of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in the European Parliament (EP). The EP coalesces around groups of similar outlook and this is the main centre-left group. He was the ALDE’s nomination for President of the European Commission in the 2014 European Parliament election. So if you voted for say Labour or the Greens in the European Election, then you were voting for him as Commission President as Labour etc. sit in the ALDE. It’s a bit more complicated if you voted Tory as Mr Cameron threw a tantrum and took the Tory MEPs out of the main centre-right block, and well I digress……but you see how we do indeed elect the Commission President, contrary to popular belief?

Anyway, I keep digressing. Mr Verhofstadt is the EP’s lead negotiator for Brexit. Which is interesting as the ALDE is not the largest group in the EP. The largest group is the centre-right European Peoples Party, the EPP (and has been since 1999). This is why Mr Juncker is Commission President, as all folk across the EU who voted centre-right in the European elections voted for the EPP’s nominee Mr Juncker (except Tory voters here, due the aforementioned tantrum). Verhofstadt is a die-hard Europhile and that he is the EP’s lead negotiator when his group is not the largest in the EP and hasn’t been for nearly 20 years gives a hint to those interested that things might not run as smooth for us as we imagine, or like.

Brexit negotiations on the EU side will largely be done by the Commission, which after all is nothing more that the EU’s administrative arm or civil service with final approval in the end by elected Heads of State through Council of Ministers and the EP. Already I am sure, the Commission will be engaging with National Governments and the EP, and with civil society (business. The TUs, other campaigning groups, citizen groups), to prepare lines and arguments.

Richard Broughton

[Tizer]

Thanks for all that Richard, we need your help as we wade through the treacle of EU and Brexit politics. I've read that when David Davis heard that he'd be dealing with Verhofstadt he referred to him as `the Devil'. When he made his first official visit to the Belgian's office Verhofstadt welcomed him with the words "Welcome to Hell!".

[Stanley]

Dead right Tiz, we are so lucky to have Richard to guide us. No wonder he's pissed off when he actually knows what's going on!
I know that using common sense in regard to politics is dangerous, the two don't often co-exist but I can't imagine how anyone can make the assumption that the exit negotiations won't be a bloodbath. The EU has to punish us pour encourager les autres! (see THIS for the quotation from 'Candide)
This is going to cost us dearly in years to come, we are seeing the results already as businesses flounder in the mire of indecision that engulfs us. I always said that history would judge Cameron severely, he may be accompanied by May!

[Stanley]

See THIS for the result of the Sleaford by-election. Conservatives hold, UKIP second, LibDem third and Labour Fourth.

[Tizer]

Labour seem to be fighting for who can have first go at running the Party over the cliff. Is Corbyn still around or has he gone off on a Christmas holiday? Labour stalwarts must be driven to despair.

[Stanley]

Not quite despair yet but I have to admit that I'm beginning to wonder if the party exists in Westminster. One thing is sure, it's not going well.
I see that Boris has ventured into the minefield again by expressing concerns about Yemen. This is a direct attack on Saudi Arabia as they are the aggressors and are using arms supplied by us supposedly for internal security only. First let me say that I thoroughly approve of criticism of Saudi on this matter but I fear that Boris may not be acting in a completely altruistic manner. Call me an old cynic but I think he has found that being Foreign Minister is not his bag and he is looking for a get out, he wants May to get fed up with him torpedoing her arms selling visit and move him sideways into another post. With the Tories in such a state of disarray at the moment I am not sure she can afford to do this. Interesting. Of course I may be entirely wrong. What the hell do I know.....
Breaking news at 07:00. See THIS for a Guardian report that the CIA have concluded that Russia did indeed help Trump in the election by making emails available on the web. A spokesman for Trump said that these are the same people who said that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. Is there a bit of a war here between US intelligence services and Trump? Not good news.....

[Stanley]

Trump is at it again..... See THIS for informed speculation that yet another wealthy businessman with no experience of government is about to be appointed as Secretary of State. The chief qualifiocation for this team looks increasingly like those who have mad zillions in industry.
If you Google Brown Trousers you get THIS. Admittedly this is the Sun, not one of my go-to places for hot political news but what does this say about the mind set of our media, and those who have wasted our time criticising May because of her trousers. I speak as a man with a suit that would cost £1500, boots that are up to £800 at today's prices and Crombie overcoats. So what?
See THIS for even more kerfuffle about the trousers!

[Tizer]

The chief qualifiocation for this team looks increasingly like those who have mad zillions in industry.

I remember Bruff pointing out the photo on all the newspaper front pages of Trump and Farage together in a gold-plated Trump Towers lift, and these the very men who claim to be making the world better for the common man. (I mention the common man only, not the common woman - the only one of those that Trump's interested in is one that's willing to be groped!).

[Stanley]

There is nothing about either of those men that inspires confidence.
Brown Trouser Gate rumbles on....
I heard a commentator voicing very similar suspicions as mine about Boris, his role as Foreign Secretary and the likelihood of Theresa giving him the old Heave Ho. Do you think we are being monitored?
What struck me last night as I listened to yet another interminable discussion about Brexit by the chattering classes is that it is very convenient smoke for hiding the subjects I really want them to look at, poverty, child mortality, food banks, homelessness...... and so on almost ad infinitum. We have over two years of this to endure!

[Tizer]

Matthew Parris this weekend has made the point that Remainers should stop being frightened of saying they still believe that it's wrong for Britain to leave the EU. Just because the voters have opted, by a small minority, to support the Leave camp we shouldn't assume that they can't change their mind. The Leavers shout that `the people have spoken' but the people can speak again. For example, if we elect in a political party by the democratic process we are still allowed to throw it out at the next election.

[Pluggy]

Given the option, I for one would reverse my decision and vote remain now.

[Tizer]

If I were the PM and there was no choice but to leave the EU I wouldn't be spending my time looking for trade treaties with individual countries. I'd start canvassing other countries now for setting up a new, alternative, slimmed down EU. Many useful, efficient and acceptable aspects could be copied over while other, undesirable ones could be avoided. I bet you'd quickly find other countries wanting to sign up in preference to staying in the present EU. It would have been better to remain in the original union and improve it from the inside but, forced to leave, why not build a better union?

[Stanley]

I agree with you all and good man Pluggy, it takes courage to admit that you want to reverse your vote. Not your fault, it was always a flawed process with a bad question based on insufficient information and fear. Largely because even the progenitors didn't understand the problems they were manufacturing.
My attention is on the disgraceful politicising and smoke and mirrors around the latest rail strikes in the SE region. The bottom line is that instead of arguing about minor matters the real problem, a ridiculously badly managed railway that isn't fit for purpose should be taken in hand by the government and restructured. I don't care how they do it but taking up polarised positions where it is depicted as a straight fight between bad unions and the legitimate management is shameful and unproductive. Grayling himself is culpable, he is using this as a weapon against the unions instead of doing his job. Transport is too important to be a political football.
The Law of Unintended Consequences has struck again! One of the things about the Autumn Financial Statement was what was left out. For one thing there was no reference to the crisis in Social Care. I have little doubt that this was a deliberate decision, this was an area where the government is vulnerable and it was best not to raise the matter. Unfortunately this omission triggered what has developed into a full scale attack on the funding of Social Care and during that debate it has been reinforced yet again that this is the biggest single factor which is dragging the NHS down. The response has been half-hearted of course, the usual flood of dodgy statistics to show that money is being provided but no mention at all about to 1,000,000 extra electors over the age of 60 since 2010. This one fact dictates increased thinking about funding increases. Add to this the fact that the solution proposed is to raise Council Tax and this automatically increases the Post Code Lottery as areas with the highest property prices will rake in the most money. The more deprived areas of the country will fall even further behind. Nothing in the government proposals carries any assurance of improvement both in Social Care and in bed-blocking in the NHS.

[Tizer]

`Transport is too important to be a political football.' I would take this a step further and say that the UK - the health and well-being of its population, the functioning of its economy, the quality of its housing, the provision of its essential services etc - is far too important to be left solely in the hands of private individuals and private corporations (and I would include charities too). I'm not wanting to do away with private business and private enterprise but I do believe that we have reached a point were the government, on behalf of the public (i.e. in the type of representative democracy which was missing in the decision on EU membership), should have greater powers to control and intervene in private business. Too much power is in private hands and being used to benefit the few at the expense of the many - we have far too many poorly performing organisations run by over-paid executives. The regulatory agencies are too weak and too slow to act. Shares in companies are now mostly held by large investment organisations whose own directors are highly paid and who don't have sufficient motivation to shake up the businesses they have invested in. Perhaps we need to merge all the individual regulatory agencies into one super-agency with much increased powers to intervene quickly in the running of large organisations when they start performing badly and damaging the UK. I fear though that we don't have any politicians with the will and the clout to do the job of making such a change.