POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

"Pardon me but there are some men in white coats at the door."
Quite Ken.... My only modification to your post would be that some credit cards charge a far higher rate than 19%, always the ones that you can be accepted for even though you have a bad credit rating. I.E. All your other cards are maxed out.
George Bernard Shaw once made a speech to the Fabian Society that started "I hate the Poor"! He went on to say that by that he meant he wanted to abolish the whole class of 'the poor'. It was a laudable left wing middle class aspiration then but unfortunately it didn't happen and as Jesus said (so we are told in the Bible) " “The poor you will always have with you” (Matthew 26:11). That was the position in 2010 when Cameron and Osborne decided that the way to mend the broken UK economy after the bankers had spent all the money and been bailed out on the pretext that they were 'too big to fail' was to make the poor pay by reducing benefits and adopting a strict austerity policy.
At the time very responsible and able economists warned that this was the wrong policy as it would cut the spending power of the class that recirculated all its income and supported the general economy. Cameron and Osborne refused to listen and stuck to their policy on the grounds that it would mend the economy faster and 'a rising tide floats all boats', somewhat confused but this was the phrase used to justify what economists call 'the trickle down effect'.
Move forwards to today and Truss and her advisers have learned nothing, she is still advocating tax cuts for the wealthy and holding social benefits down as the way to stimulate the economy despite all the evidence that this is diametrically the wrong policy.
As you say Ken, the men in white coats are at the door but nobody is letting them in.

[Tizer]

I see in a corner of the FT's front page today that Therese Coffey has sent out an email to health workers telling them to avoid using the Oxford comma, avoid jargon and be positive. Is she really Health secretary? Is accurate punctuation going to save the NHS?

[Big Kev]

I see in a corner of the FT's front page today that Therese Coffey has sent out an email to health workers telling them to avoid using the Oxford comma, avoid jargon and be positive. Is she really Health secretary? Is accurate punctuation going to save the NHS?

Probably not but it should be encouraged at every opportunity.

[Tizer]

I agree better punctuation should be encouraged but that's not the Health Secretary's job. It gives everyone the impression that she's got her priorities in the wrong order and wants to meddle with day to day issues instead of the overall strategies.

[Stanley]

"and wants to meddle with day to day issues instead of the overall strategies."
Perhaps it's all she can think of to do at the moment with a Parliament and Civil Service that are paralysed by The Platinum death.

[Whyperion]

Bank of England also says that increases in the price of fuel show up in inflation figures, therefore interest rates must rise reduce people borrowing and spending money they dont have pushing up prices generally.

From the above we can safely say that the cost of living crisis is all down to people who don't have any money to spend so are borrowing it at 19%+ on silly thing like petrol to get to work, energy to heat their homes and food to put on the table. The BofE response is to make borrowing more expensive to stop these luxury spending sprees. Liz Truss and her government are doing their best to keep wages down making people borrow more so that the BofE can put interest rates up to stop people buying things.
.Snake eating its tail.jpg
On the other hand the rich don't have to borrow in order to spend so we can safely give them some more without affecting the cost of living.

Pardon me but there are some men in white coats at the door.

Which/Whose Door (its not Boris dressing up again ?)

[Stanley]

The nearest thing I can find to political news is a report that criticisms are being levelled at the fact that MPs and their aides and staff are being allowed to 'jump the queue' at the lying in state.
So what? In case anyone has forgotten we are in the midst of the greatest foreign policy, economical and political crisis of the last 100 years! The death of the queen has paralysed the state and legislature and it seems ridiculous to some of us.....
Having said that.... There is a lot of politics embedded in the way the death has been handled. It's quite obvious that the distinct possibility of the break up of the Union has been taken on board by the establishment. Scotland, N Ireland and Wales have all been visited and massaged, they have been told how important they were to the queen and this will continue under king Charles.

[plaques]

As a confirmed republican why am I saddened by the passing of Queen Elizabeth II ? Its quite right that people should show their respect and we should all give them time and space to do so. What is concerning me is the possible exploitation of national events like this being used for political purposes. Princes Diana's death, the peoples Princes, showed a swell of feeling that was unprecedented at the time. Nothing wrong with that you may say but the media and politicians saw that with the correct coverage masses of people could be swayed one way or the other. The 'Get Brexit Done' propaganda was always accompanied by wall to wall Union Flags and photos of the Queen. The extended period of mourning / respect for our late queen will no doubt be heavily used in the lead up the next general election as part of the stable Britannia with the promise of jam tomorrow.

Having said that I doubt if the image of the two pensioners Charles and Camilla will worth too many votes.

[Tizer]

You'll remember me talking about `Putin's chef', Yevgeniy Prigozhin, over recent years. He and his Wagner Group are recruiting prisoner's for Putin's war and have been filmed...
`Wagner Group: Head of Russian mercenary group filmed recruiting in prison' LINK

[Stanley]

I share your view Ken. I am not waving my republican tendencies in the faces of those who are genuinely upset by the queen's death, I respect their feeling as you do but you are quite right about the use of the flag and monarchy to reinforce political measures like Brexit. I have a theory that this is why the convention is that royalty keeps out of politics. If they didn't they might clash with 'the official line'.
God knows that even without the effects of war in Ukraine on us we were heading for severe economic impact caused by Brexit already. Johnson kept repeating that he had 'got Brexit done' but the plain fact is that he hadn't. In case anyone has forgotten there is the small matter of Northern Ireland that has to be faced yet. I have little doubt that in the talks Truss will be having with the world leaders coming to the funeral President Biden will be mentioning it to her.
The other major circumstance that is being blanketed by the grief-fest is the fact that many serious economists are saying that we are already in recession, officially this has not yet happened citing statistics that they know full well are inside the margin of error for these things. (Like 0.6% growth) Next week there will be an avalanche of decisions, both political and economic and quantity will be used to conceal inconvenient truths. However, in the end the true facts will prevail, the recession will have to be recognised and then the fight will be to stop comparisons with former recessions. The performance of the Pound Sterling is a bit of a clue to what will be happening there....
Spin and obfuscation can only go so far. Eventually the truth will prevail and then we will see monarchy and the 'New Carolean 'Age' wheeled out as a smoke screen to replace 'the Elizabethan age'.

[plaques]

Its becoming clearer by the day that without some kind of financial help thousands of small and medium size businesses are going bankrupt or closing down before they reach that point. The energy costs are going through the roof with no specific detail on what the government is going to do to help them. The obvious answer is to do what the EU are doing and windfall tax these unacceptable disgustingly high profits. We are told in no uncertain terms that this isn't the Conservative way of doing things. All of us must bow to market forces even if this means loss the of jobs and the foundation rug of our economy being pulled from under us. The answer is to borrow more money at inflated rates then ask people to pay it back later. A sure way of keeping poor people poor.
One of the things that the UK is very good at is maintaining charities that have become essential to supporting vulnerable people. Hospices and some childcare charities that in reality have become essential since our Compassionate Conservatives have quietly removed themselves from these areas are classed as businesses and are seeing the full weight of the energy price increases 600% often being quoted. Added to this is the fact that many of the supporting donors are of limited means and are cutting back to cover their own expenses.
This ideology of Market forces has a lot to answer for and wants kicking into touch immediately.

[Stanley]

"This ideology of Market forces has a lot to answer for and wants kicking into touch immediately."
Exactly Ken. Funny how this lot of amateur economists has been pointing at this anomaly for years and yet the 'Conservatives' haven't twigged. Could it be because they think of themselves as the rich and market forces are good for them?
You're dead right about anyone who can be described as a small business being in imminent danger Ken. I fear for what is coming in the next six months....

[Stanley]

I look forward to the end of today when the grief-fest will have ended and we can get back to business. Truss promises that in terms of announcements and changes this week will be one to remember. Judging by her hints we are about to see a flood of right wing 'Conservative' values thrust on us whether we like it or not.

[plaques]

I believe Liz energy bill will be put before parliament this coming friday. Said to be a multi-part plan with very little detail. Parliament then closes from 22 Sept 2022, 17 Oct 2022. for the conference season. Nice timing Liz that give MPs one day to discuss and vote on a bill that will affect millions of people. Its been noted that if this plan was so good to be the answer to Liz Truss's prayer it would have been splashed in all the right-wing papers detailing savings and costs how it will save the £Stirling from sinking into the abyss solve the cost of living crisis not to mention solving climate change while putting Putin in his place. Instead it will largely be hidden from view drip fed into the media to see how it goes then adjusted just enough to stop a complete rebellion. Bearing in mind that Boris Johnson was to publish his energy plan way back on March 7th this year and we are still waiting. What kind of government have we got.

[Stanley]

Ken, Is that right? We don't get full time government until 17th October? Good Grief....

[Whyperion]

Doesnt Friday also cover the increase in Grammer Schools (while schools generally dont get enough funding for the heating cost increase - are we back to the days of heavy coats and fingerless gloves in the classroom ?)

[plaques]

Doesnt Friday also cover the increase in Grammer Schools (while schools generally dont get enough funding for the heating cost increase - are we back to the days of heavy coats and fingerless gloves in the classroom ?)

Not sure on the status of Grammar schools but I know what you mean. The problem is going to be that schools in more wealthy districts may be able to ask parents for extra donations to maintain teaching standards while the poorer schools will suffer more from the cut backs reducing the overall inequality in teaching even further.

[Stanley]

"then adjusted just enough to stop a complete rebellion. "
I never forget that Piketty said that one possible result of the reduction in cost of living due to policies excluding a wealth tax was social unrest. He hadn't factored in the energy crisis. You might well be very close to the truth there Ken..... I doubt if I will be clapping my hands with glee by the end of the week, more likely to be spitting feathers!

[plaques]

Liz Truss has finally admitted that a trade deal with the US is going to take a long time. From this it can be taken it won't happen in time for the next general election. So Boris's much vaunted Brexit Benefit bites the dust.
From Sky News.
The much-vaunted post-Brexit trade deal between the UK and US could be years away, Liz Truss admitted as she landed in the US before her first official bilateral meeting with President Joe Biden.

This delay should come as no surprise to those watching the UK economy sinking to its lowest level for decades. America and the other big power blocks will wait until there is the equivalent of a fire sale and take the UK to the cleaners. Liz will be putting a brave face on her trip to the US where we will be told she said her priority with international allies was to "collectively deal with Russia aggression". In other words 'told what to do next'.

How did we get into this hole? and can we trust the people who got us there to get us out again? No expletives please.

[Stanley]

How did we get into this hole?
My version of how it happened is that we abdicated responsibility for and control of the major economic levers of power in the land in the name of 'small government'. Labour are guilty as is every other party but the Tories probably take the biscuit for absolute quantity because of Thatcher's hatred of smokestack industries and the unions. She squandered the benefits of North Sea Oil on maintaining a pool of unemployment to weaken the unions, hold wages down and thus ensure the overall profitability of UK PLC. Only problem is she and her advisers were wrong, a healthy trade union structure and a prosperous working class is the engine of economic spending which keeps GDP high and the money circulating.
Actually this is what is behind Liz Truss's belief that tax cuts will raise economic activity and hence raise the income of the poor. Her hero is Thatcher and she tries to emulate her. Problem is that her version relies on the discredited 'trickle down theory' or in some politician's words, 'a rising tide floats all boats'. Both these may be right in the long term but as Keynes pointed out, in the long term we are all dead.
Nye Bevan knew that these theories were wrong, that was why he advised keeping control of the commanding heights of the economy. The crises we face today are all due to reliance on 'The Market' to control these levers of power. It is the market which has decided on the generation, distribution and price of energy. It has been the abandoning of energy provision to a profiteering private sector that has led to vital decisions on atomic energy and other generating sources being neglected in the mistaken belief that the market knows best. This reliance on the private sector is even responsible for turds on our beaches.....
So. I am not expecting any gems of political or economic insight from our new PM. She will, as Ken says, preside over our decline to the point where a fire sale is inevitable and only then will the US step in and seize the prize of privatising health provision with the consequences we see in the US system, poor people not having access to health care.. Deep and unalloyed joy!!

[Stanley]

Read THIS and then have a bit of a ponder. Lots of speculation about why the government is avoiding the use of the word "budget" in any form for this weeks financial 'event' when Quasi Kwarteng will let us know some of the decisions that have been made. It has been pointed out that by avoiding the word 'budget' there is no necessity to publish anything the OBR says. Quasi Kwarteng has already let it be known that he'd like to see the back of the OBR. He evidently doesn't like to have experts checking his homework.
There is also speculation that the tone of the OBR opinions suggest that they believe that the government is flying on a wing and a prayer for the reasons I set out yesterday. In other words that they think the situation is worse than the government admits and will deteriorate if the Truss policy of tax cuts and trickle down is followed. The deregulation of bonus levels and borrowing limit relaxation are also seen as retrograde measures.
Further, some commentators detect a change in overall Treasury policy as it starts to reverse its long-running programme of stimulus.
All the signs are that Truss and Kwarteng are embarked on another version of 'let the market go free, it knows best', a policy which has always failed miserably in the past but leaves some wealthy capital holders even richer.
{That's how you encourage donors to your Party!}

[plaques]

Joe Biden has said in no uncertain tones that 'trickle down' doesn't work, never did and never will. That was aimed at home politics but its a shot across the bows for Liz Truss's policies. Liz Truss has said there would be NO American trade deal and there will be NO discussions. A very unusual statement to make normally one would get some some vague diplomatic phrasing that implies that something is bubbling along in the background. The US trade deal was one of the big big Brexit advantages that Boris promised the plebes if we left the common market. In 2019 it was promised we would be seeing something in 2022. Well 2022 is nearly ending and we are now told the cat is dead and its off the table completely. Shortly to hit the table is another dead cat in the shape of Canada, Mexico et al. No end date quoted just another promise.
Liz Truss our Prime Minister voted in by 81,326 votes to 60,399. is prepared to be unpopular. So 21000 people will be quite happy with that as long as it only applies to the remaining 56million and not to them. She is fast becoming a joke on the world stage where all the experts are saying her policies will tank the £Stirling completely. The independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been told to keep its nose out. If it was such a good plan their findings would have already been published in the right-wing media with full page head lines. Why all this secrecy? I think we already know,

[Stanley]

Morning Ken..... Joe Biden is right and he's evidently been listening to the right economists. And yes, the Truss camp can assure us as much as they like that it wasn't aimed at Truss but of course it was! Joe Biden is too old a dog to need amateurs to explain what he is doing. Notice that the Biden camp also mentioned how important the Good Friday agreement is to them. They are running out of patience and Truss can't pass a law to make it OK to break international law even though it looks as though she might attempt this.
Why all the secrecy on the OBR report? Obviously because they have voiced an inconvenient truth, in other words done exactly what they were set up to do, the clue is in the title of office..... I thought Osborne and Cameron were a comic double act when it came to 101 Economics but Liz Truss has them beat by a mile and she hasn't got into her stride yet.
I can confidently predict one thing, the results of her policies are going to become apparent very quickly and any MPs watching their ratings in terms of a job after the next election are going to start opposing her, she is not a vote winner!

[Whyperion]

Osborne created the OBR as a mix to check his "Sound Money" policies and as a means to beat Labour's Tax and Spend ideas to death.
Conservatives dont seem to be economically consistent, prepared or resiliant.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report of a rise in US interest rates. This is possibly the most important news for the UK economy we could have had. As explained in the article this almost automatically ensures bad news for us, a stronger $US and there fore a weaker £Sterling which in turn means dearer imports and energy, this will trigger an expected .75% increase in the UK Base rate which in turn affects the whole of the economy adversely but in particular anyone on a variable rate mortgage.
At the same time, Truss pushes for relaxed control of banker's bonuses, Kwarteng will announce tightening of Universal Credit rules and the Tories head off to their conference to congratulate themselves on getting a new PM in place and retaining power after the disaster of Johnson. Right wing supremacy survives and prospers, and who put them there.....