OneGuyFromBarlick

Enjoying watching the Andrew Neil show with Ed Balls and George Osborne agreeing with each other about the Tory catastrophe.

That must be the first time ever Wendy. So Truss is uniting at least some politicians!
I read the posts about the OBR. The clear message to me is that the chancellor should never have the option of gagging the OBR again. Publication of their advice in full should be obligatory. Did I hear Truss say that the Cabinet was never consulted about the budget or the OBR report? She added that Quasi made the decision himself, that's handy, it makes it all his fault!
I see that Grant Shapps has attacked Truss but I don't take much note of that because he is, and always has been, a political lightweight. Michael Gove saying he will not back her is a different matter. He carries weight in the Party and could be a significant influence on what happens next.
I go back to my original thoughts. The Truss Effect on the Tory Party's election chances is the key fact that will decide what happens. So she is doomed. Even if she survives that one, the economic difficulties coming down the road as she cuts welfare and public services to save money (And she has no other option) will sink both her and the Tories.
My perennial problem is that I don't see Starmer as a leader. Harsh I know but we need to see a replacement.....

Stanley wrote: ↑03 Oct 2022, 02:58 Did I hear Truss say that the Cabinet was never consulted about the budget or the OBR report? She added that Quasi made the decision himself, that's handy, it makes it all his fault!

Yesterday's morning interview Truss was asked if the all Cabinet were in agreement. Answer. NO. But collectively we are working together. This was repeated three times then finally Quasi made the decision himself,. Does she expect the public to not remember the sentence she has just finished.
Through the discussions on the 'financial adjustment' (budget) we constantly hear that people are happy with it except for the top rate tax cut and the removal of the bankers bonus cap. Well people are not happy with it. The excessive profits made by the energy companies should have been windfall taxed instead the bill was passed to the People in the form of extra borrowing. The energy bills were capped after two bites at the cake making energy twice the price it was a year ago. All forgotten in the 'didn't we do well' statement.
No mention of the mysterious hypothetical Trickle Down affect all forecasts are now 'Medium to Long' term. All that Truss has done is to guarantee that the BoE puts interest rates up to deal with the increased cost of living burden. Not me Gov. More blame shifting.
All this financial nonsense now means the are looking at massive cuts in social services which could include the NHS but this is something we are going to enjoy nearer to Christmas. Happy new year.
To sum it up 'THE PEOPLE ARE NOT HAPPY.

plaques wrote: ↑03 Oct 2022, 07:35 No mention of the mysterious hypothetical Trickle Down...

Isn't that the place where a little girl called Liz lives with the naughty elves, Mogg the Magician and Wizard Kwasi?

I'm listening to reports from the Tory Party conference.... some of the comments directly contradict others, in other words lies are being told. It's an omnishambles.....
The general message is move on, nothing to see here but I get the feeling that this is not a universal view......

I dont agree with Keir Starmer, I think he fights the wrong battles and I dislike his views on Corbyn, but he seems the best in the Parliamentary Labour Party. A Party led by Allan Johnson and David Milliband might have done well and delivered a moderate left agenda but voters of all kinds ditched them out.

The Chancellor bounces back in his conference speech , with some uncosted, untested, waffle, and some dangerous political ideas too.
BBC website (edited quotes)
"We believe in low tax, high growth and fiscal discipline," "We are Conservatives."
"We as Conservatives believe in Britain. We love this country, Our patriotism goes to the core of what it is to be a Conservative."

" The chancellor says he is "unashamedly a pro-business conservative".
He says the interests of business and hard-working families are aligned, that they create more jobs, raise wages and contribute to our public services.
the tax system needs to be made simpler, more competitive and pro-growth"

""stifling red tape" puts up "too many barriers for enterprises looking to scale up", there are "too many rules for small business owners looking to take on apprentices," and there are "too many burdens for the finance sector" looking to invest."

"He recalls his time as business secretary and says he visited every corner of the country and saw the creativity, the drive and the entrepreneurial spirit, but he also saw where governments got in the way of progress" ( I would love to see a specific example of this )

- overall enough to fit any policy into any way you like really. (C) consultants Grabbit , Plunder and Rhunn.

Whyperion wrote: ↑03 Oct 2022, 16:06 I dont agree with Keir Starmer, I think he fights the wrong battles and I dislike his views on Corbyn, but he seems the best in the Parliamentary Labour Party. A Party led by Allan Johnson and David Milliband might have done well and delivered a moderate left agenda but voters of all kinds ditched them out.

I tend to agree on Starmer. By ditching Corbyn and on the surface many of the core Labour principles he has tried to make himself the Teflon man aware of how powerful the right-wing media is on disseminating lies and false information. The problem is he has become the man in a gray suit approaching transparency. Perhaps that's what the 'middle ground' prefers who knows.

Whyperion wrote: ↑03 Oct 2022, 16:06 - overall enough to fit any policy into any way you like really. (C) consultants Grabbit , Plunder and Rhunn.

Well said. Wrapped up in the Union flag and sing Rule Britannia while it sinks below the waves.

As an example of Starmer's wrong-thinking look no further than his knee jerk reaction when an MP went onto a picket line and supported it. He seems to have forgotten what the roots of the party are, the clue is in the name.....

The Tory party conference rolls on: forget the turbulence and delaying the tax break on 45% earners which would only give a poultry £2Billion in savings. What the countray needs to do is concentrate on is getting the debt down. Code for more austerity. The more sane of the population would go for a windfall tax on the excessive energy profits instead of borrowing and increasing the debt. But NO that isn't the conservative way. If we did that we wouldn't have any argument about cutting benefits and social services. Of course we can't tell the public what we are going to cut because collectively Kwasi Kwarteng will decide this himself??? These minor (£45Billion) adjustments will be spelt out in his November budget after the OBR has told us how big the cock up is we've already made. Before all this takes place we need some other distractions, dead cats etc: events dear boy events. We must hit the ground running and get the poor suckers on our side.

Even the FT supports uprating benefits by increase in earnings rather than CPI FT via MSN

The article notes that in work benefits have risen as a proportion of GDP - was that not part of Gordon Brown's income distribution with Tax Credits ? (maybe its the walloping increase in Housing Benefit=Landlords Subsidy) Somehow the old Family Income Supplement and Income Support systems complete with Rates Relief seemed better in the1970s for getting to the bottom of main low income problems. Decent paying work, affordable housing , state owned industries providing basics at affordable prices while still making a return on capital for the govt. VAT was lower too, so if we are talking reducing the burden of taxation a revision to the crude council tax, insurance tax and VAT would seem sensible if getting inflation down is a serious target.

IF I understood Truss's latest interview with Peston , the Top Rate of Income Tax elimination had become a distraction, and anyway was only a minor bit of the tax amending proposals. That struck me as odd as if the proposal had been welcome by the tory faithful this would have been the flagship policy and the best thing since sliced bread.

I wonder if Truss used to cheat playing monopoly, refusing to pay for street repairs , not coughing up when landing on Super Tax and refusing the chance card on assesment for income tax while claiming that the water company was a public utility and again no rent was payable by individuals.

Ever since I can remember the Conservative party has always shown a united front. No matter what the local or international difficulties the party has never showed a split and always moved in lock step, as Boris would say, in agreement with each other. Even now we are told that they demonstrate democracy to its highest level. Bearing in mind Pendle is a totally Conservative dominated area. Your local councilor who is directly in touch with the people will pass their views to the leader of the council who in turn will talk to the local MP which then gets passed on to the Cabinet over which the PM (Liz Truss) presides. In theory the collective views are judged on their merit and a final decision made. All very democratic and above board. Unfortunately its now becoming apparent that the present Conservatives are run by a secret society called the ERG with many of its members also being in the cabinet with Liz Truss proving to be no more than a puppet for the ERG dancing to there tune. The more sane Conservatives now realize that this is the road to oblivion and want out of this impending train crash. Mysteriously Truss and Kwarteng have done an embarrassing U-turn on tax cuts with possibly more to follow. Why? Suella Braverman (ERG member) has accused the sane MPs of undermining the PM. Are we seeing the start of the first split where the warders are finally going to throw out the ERG inmates. Liz Truss will put a brave face on it and conclude the party conference with words like 'I believe' we are facing difficult times, that's why I have Blah Blah Blah with hands moving up and down in puppet like motion.
I don't think its going to go down too well.

Disruption is the Price for Success

Shades of If It Isnt Hurting it Isnt Working

Ken, you may be right about the ERG taking having control but there have always been shadowy centres of power connected with the Tories and now is no different. Truss tells us what she thinks will keep us quiet. I think it's quite obvious what her course is, the clue is in the ludicrous idea of linking benefit rises to increases in wages.... Totally transparent... that means control benefits via wages as that is less contentious. In effect the only way she can squeeze any 'savings' out of the economy is by cutting the spending on welfare, benefits, social services and of course the biggest target of them all, the NHS.
The delay in making this clear is an attempt to give her time to get her feet under the table. She is so incompetent that even that might be beyond her. I have never seen such a mess.....

I feel I think I need to go further than I did earlier this morning. I think my thought about her buying time to get her feet under the table is correct. When asked about the November 23rd date for revelations about the way the 'reforms' are going to be paid for both Truss and Kwarteng refuse to commit to anything sooner. I am fairly certain that this is because they don't have a plan yet and need the time to work out a cunning wheeze.
Unfortunately, the general opinion amongst the commentators is that she is not going to get the luxury of a respite. Yesterday we saw Cabinet 'colleagues' like Penny Mordaunt putting their oar in, in her case to state that benefits must be linked to inflation and not wages. This at a time when her Leader was expressing the other view.
Predictions are that the speech this morning will be smoke and mirrors designed to 'prove' that disruption is necessary to get reform of the system and growth. Question is will it work? On the whole the opinion is no, there is too much concern about the future of the Party in any future election. People are beginning to refer to the Canadian Conservative Party's complete melt down under Brian Mulrooney in 1993.
Will Truss be openly heckled later when she speaks? Passions are running strong enough for the unthinkable to happen.

Kwateng blamed the national mouring period for lack of time for detail and analysis of the mini-budget last night.

Dep PM Nadine Dorries speech apparently sent members to sleep, but she is promising some kind of nationwide Dental Care recognition system to enable flexibility of where dental staff can work ( question for medical matters- why is this not the case under the NHS anyway ?)

Just listed to James Cleverly explaining how the mini budget was an incredibly well though out plan but due to Queen Elizabeth II death government discussions were brought to a stand still and when it was introduced people concentrated on the wrong thing so they removed it. What a load of Bull.
They then turned to benefit support. We are thinking hard about it. This is in spite of the previous chancellor and PM saying it would be in line with inflation. Wait a minute this is not a new government but the old one which has been in power for two years but with a new PM that has replaced the old one they threw out. Why are they just getting round to thinking about it? This is government on the hoof with no plan that they want people to see, Its all sound bites, grow the economy, higher wages, more investment but no detailed plan how to get there. When your up against a wall turn round and fight your way out. Forgetting of course this is a wall not a paper bag.

plaques wrote: ↑05 Oct 2022, 09:01 Unfortunately its now becoming apparent that the present Conservatives are run by a secret society called the ERG with many of its members also being in the cabinet with Liz Truss proving to be no more than a puppet for the ERG dancing to there tune.

Plaques, people keep calling the ERG `secret' but it's been in existence since 1993. Yes, the details of its activities are not aired in public but there's no secret about its existence. It became much more widely known at the time of the EU Referendum when they set up a WhatsApp group which was also supposed to be secret. There's plenty about the ERG and lists of its members on Wikipedia.

ERG is not secret but secretive.

From Wiki

The European Research Group (ERG) is a secretive research support group of Eurosceptic Conservative Members of Parliament of the United Kingdom.[1] The journalist Sebastian Payne described it in the Financial Times as "the most influential [research group] in recent political history".[2]
Serving an annual average of 21 MPs[3] including cabinet members, the group's focus is the single issue of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union.

Here are some other comments.

On 11 September 2018, members of the ERG met in Westminster to discuss plans to bring down the prime minister.[18]

On 4 February 2018, columnist Peter Wilby was highly critical, writing that "The highly secretive body seems to devote most of its efforts to what, if it were left-wing, would be called plotting." In the same article, he quotes The Times as saying it is "the most aggressive and successful political cadre in Britain today".[19]

On 15 February 2019, the Press Association reported that "Critics, however, accuse it of acting as a “party within a party”, running its own whipping operation in support of its objective of a so-called “hard” Brexit, if necessary leaving without any deal with Brussels."[20]

Their membership list is not open to the public domain. Their agender is secret and it looks like they are prepared to crash the economy to get their way. This is extreme ideology and is far away from the 'steady as she goes' that traditional Conservatives have prided themselves on.

I always thought that Pretty Orrible was about as bad as you could get for a Home Secretary. Unfortunately it looks like we currently have an even more Fascist leaning example in Suella Braverman. She has put forward a plan to not allow anyone who arrives "illegally" to claim asylum status, apparently if you are fleeing persecution you have to arrive on a scheduled flight or ferry! She also want us to kick the European Court of Human Rights into touch as it stands in the way of her Fascist agenda. History proves that it was the women guards in the concentration and death camps who were the cruellest. Looks like she is making a good start.

plaques wrote: ↑05 Oct 2022, 10:28 ERG is not secret but secretive.

Plaques, thanks for posting more information about the ERG. I agree with you and I'm definitely not trying to support the Group but what I was getting at is that although they try to be secretive they bungle it all and journalists make it easy for investigative journalists to gather information on them. They're not as clever as they think they are. When they first set up their `private' WhatsApp group The Times soon found that the way to get their information didn't involve computer hacking - you just ask a member of the group. They can't resist talking about themselves!
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Another lot who think wrongly that they can keep everything secret is the Iranian leadership and the militia who are rounding up protesters. Watch this video of Iranian schoolgirls stopping a militia leader as he tries to make a speech. The BBC is doing a great job of gathering news of what's going on in Iran when they not allowed into the country. An example - the leaders accuse the protesters of attacking ambulances but the truth is that they are using the ambulances to carry of protesters to police stations, as shown in the video....
`Mahsa Amini: How one woman's death sparked Iran protests' LINK

Good posts..... And yes, Braverman is no improvement on Priti 'Orrible.
I wasn't far out in my predictions about the Speech yesterday even down to the heckling and Ken is correct it was all smoke and mirrors, sound bites and aspirations.
Did you notice the new category of ant-Trussianomics, 'The Anti-Growth Brigade'? It includes all the opposition Parties, 'militant' trade unions, (are non-militant ones OK?) and anyone who protests like the Greenpeace hecklers yesterday. She even has the makings of John Major's 'bastards' in Gove and Mordaunt and in cas nobody has noticed, Rishi Sunak has gone very quiet. What could he be up to. If he doesn't do a runner to the US with his green card he will not be a Truss supporter....
Everything about the Truss victory parade was false and insubstantial. Her brand of economics is based on 'trickle down' which is totally discredited for the simple reason it has never worked. We know nothing about her policies and any enthusiasm for her is bordering on valid reasons for sectioning....
What a bloody mess.
PS. It struck me that another voice that has been absent is Quasi Kwarteng.... Could it be he has rumbled the Truss cunning wheeze to blame him every time the shit hits the fan? That seemed to be her fall back position at one point and we have at least one instance of them being heard having a flaming row over something.
One last point, it was commented last night that many MPs had not attended conference and of those who did go many had gone home before the Speech. The core audience that was left was the rock solid Shire Tories and assorted sycophants. Hence the standing ovation, traditions must be maintained!

At yesterdays Nuremberg rally. Pinocchio (Liz Truss) presented her latest rallying cry. Growth, Growth, Growth, anyone found not repeating this mantra at least three times a day and compulsory at the end of prayers will automatically become a member of the Axis of Evil. Unfortunately this slogan only has any meaning if you believe in unicorns and Father Christmas. The reality is that far from GDP growing they see food prices going up, the cost of living rising, mortgages going up, the government debt rising and energy plus petrol at the pump at a near all time high.
The good news is that shortly we will cut ALL the EU red tape. Truss is totally oblivious to the fact that when we were in the Common Market there wasn't any red tape whatsoever by leaving we make ourselves a third country and created our own red tape. If by dropping all rules of standards that we agreed to as part of the Common Market you can say goodbye to any trade with the EU.
Pinocchio was at it again by claiming that she was the first PM to go to a Comprehensive school. If she means state educated then Jim Callaghan springs to mind as the cloth cap PM. Comprehensives started in 1965 but there were still Grammar schools up to 1998. If she means she didn't have to pass a selection test then by the looks of it she may not have passed.

Seen at a protest march in Leeds last week and reported on the Roundhay Facebook page