OneGuyFromBarlick

It struck me this morning that Kwarteng refers to the 'anti Growth Coalition' as though it was a physical entity with its HQ in the City and not a figment of his and Truss's imagination which they dreamed up in a meeting to write her speech for the Conference.
You are quite right ken when you refer to 'The Anti-Growth Coalition of international money funds, Investment banks, Thinking heads, ' because they have all now become subsumed in what is becoming an enormous movement!
Just seen your post Peter and I tried to avoid him by going back to bed but still got some of it. You are quite right, he is on a parallel universe where saying something makes it so and we are all errant children who don't really understand these matters.

Stanley wrote: ↑12 Oct 2022, 06:01 Later, we are getting news that the £Sterling has fallen again, news that the Tories are going to impose a windfall tax on generating companies which do not use expensive gas to generate the electricity but are getting the same price rises as companies that do. (Solar and wind cost 9X less than gas....) and Andrew Bailey saying that the B0fE is going to stop supporting bond prices on Friday. (But the imposition will not be called a 'windfall' so the deadly duo can't be accused of a U Turn.)

Reducing the amount paid for Solar output is hardly going to help climate issues where we need to encourage such generation, even if it is paid a bit more than the marginal cost of generation, we need to build the cable infrastructure to double or treble the amount that the grid can accept so costs are not neccessarily immediately cheaper. Of course such directed expenditure does not sit well in a free market state where the temptation to take profit is high, so maybe having a state owned green infrastructure company , financed by bonds with profits to the state might be a better idea ?

See THIS BBC report into the latest problem Truss is facing. She gets more risible every day. Yesterday's surprise announcement was that she is not going to make any cuts to welfare or benefits, the money needed to fund the tax cuts will come from savings in the government spend. Really? It has never worked before, like her 'trickle down' it is another accountant's cunning wheeze that sounds good but doesn't work. She faced the 1922 committee last night and from leaked accounts of proceedings was hammered by her own back benchers.
The general opinion seems to be that the only way to calm the markets is for both Truss and Kwarteng to do a complete U Turn and they are refusing to do this.
I'd love to see Sunak bouncing out of purdah and saying exactly what is in his mind. After all, what he predicted in his interviews during the leadership contest has all come to pass. I'm sure this hasn't escaped the notice of the backbenchers.

I think everybody knows that Septembers Fiscal Adjustment (Mini Budget) is unwinding bit by bit. If Liz Truss had sacked Kwarteng on the day the £ Stirling crash she could have laid the blame entirely on him and took a smaller hit that she was disappointed in his abilities. That's now water under the bridge and the caravan moves on. Unfortunately for Liz the Bond market could see through this charade and went into immediate melt down potentially collapsing the pension providers forcing the BoE to step in with even more borrowing. It didn't take long before the money markets took fright again realizing that this would cause yet more inflation and even higher bond prices and interest rates and so on into a death wish spiral. Now too late to sack Kwarteng the only way out is to unwind the mini budget but in a way that like the Cheshire Cat it disappears slowly leaving a soft purring sound rather than a grin. Meanwhile smokescreens will be set up blaming Keir Starmer and the BoE as the villains of the piece while the audience and parliament watching this pantomime are shouting 'behind you'. Rees-Mogg is also doing his party pieces from 'The drop of a Top Hat' distorting economic facts into a fairy tale world of misinformation. And they said things couldn't get worse. We shall see.

On not applying service cuts. Liz Truss said absolutely but then with the qualification it would be spent wisely. ie;- If I don't think its wise I won't spend it = cuts.

Stanley wrote: ↑13 Oct 2022, 02:59 I'd love to see Sunak bouncing out of purdah and saying exactly what is in his mind. After all, what he predicted in his interviews during the leadership contest has all come to pass. I'm sure this hasn't escaped the notice of the backbenchers.

There is talk going on among Tories about who to substitute for Truss. I too would like to see Sunak replace her - after all, he was second choice in the election so he seems to be the obvious one to choose. But instead the talk seems to be about everyone but him. Mordaunt and Badenoch seem to be the most frequently mentioned. I wonder if they're determined to choose a woman?

You would have thought that they would have opted for the Deputy Prime Minister for the remainder of the term. After all, what are they for? But no, the Tories have to do it their way and shove the chosen one in on a minority vote. Fine and dandy if they went straight to the polls. About as far away from democracy as you can get when they don't. A broken system that favours the pigs and troughs, sooner we are shut the better.

Quite amazing to hear James Cleverly saying that it would be a bad idea to sack Truss and replace her. Amazing that, unprompted, he said it on National radio this morning.
Other shibboleths that are being smashed.... Talk of putting HS2 on hold. God knows what else. Repairing a broken aircraft carrier? Buying aircraft from the US? Nothing would surprise me in this climate.
(The rumour is that the mini budget is going to be reversed some time today. But then we hear that nothing will be done while Quasi is in Washington.)
A quite extraordinary day....

We too heard Cleverley say that - it's shocking, but then we live in a world where millions of people seem to accept anything that suits them rather than what is true and evidence-based. We never thought we'd get into a situation like this - what's the betting we'll be sliding into an autocratic period and end up with a dictatorship! Nothing seems to be impossible now.

Peter and Janet. What we are looking at is truly unprecedented. When they were teaching me about Empire they said that one of the main characteristics of the Asian races was a hatred of 'losing face'. I think that's the only thing that's stopping Truss from accepting the verdict of her peers, the experts and Joe Public and doing a screeching U Turn on the whole basis of her attempt at being PM. We were repeatedly assured by the experts yesterday that such a U Turn was coming despite the fact that Quasi Kwarteng said his focus was relentless and Truss reiterated her growth mantra. However, look at THIS BBC report issued in the last hour saying that Kwarteng has been recalled to London and is on his way back on the red eye for for 'crunch talks over mini-budget with PM'. Does this mean the warnings of the Bank of England that they withdraw support for the Bond Market today have been heeded? We shall have to wait and see.

Let me be clear I’m genuinely unclear… There will be no U-turns but possibly some recalibration but I am clear that changing PM's or having a general election when I'm so far behind in the polls is not a good idea. Just when I've got the right-wing IMF on the back foot by realizing that extreme policies like the one I'm advocating would make countries aware that IMF policies only increase the risk of countries going backwards whereas mine will guarantee it. Taking money from those caring energy suppliers with some obscure financial instruments (windfall tax) is not what ordinary people want they want to stand on their own two feet and pay their way even if it means being in debt for the rest of their lives. It is clear we should not stand in their way of making simple decisions about spending money on food or energy. Choice is what people want and that is what I am giving them.

Plaques, I wondered who her speech writer was, now I know...

Remember, Matthew Parris warned us in The Times that Liz Truss is `seriously weird'.

"Absolutely. 100%. I am not going anywhere."
That was what Quasi Kwarteng said last night in Washington when asked whether he would be Chancellor in a few more days.
You've heard the news of his departure. Question now is does Truss think that ditching him means she has got rid of the problem? Is she blaming it all on him? We have not heard the last of this....

Jeremy Hunt is the new Chancellor.
Now the question is being asked how Truss survives when she has sacked the man with whom she constructed the economic policy which was her platform in the leadership election. The only thing that might save her is the fact that sacking her means an election and nobody in the Tory Party will be wanting one as at the moment it would destroy the Party.
One interesting sound bite I heard was that this is the death of the 'trickle down' theory. Anyone wanting to attack it in future has a perfect example.

P I note that the Tory Supporting Press (and BBC) appear to have blaming the Head of the Bank of England for much of the market mess. However KammiKahzi has gone, having done the job of getting massive profits for hedge funds as Hunt leads a trail of normality of 10percent real terms Budget cuts all round. IF he is clever he will drop the 1p off the income tax (which was even for Sunak the Election Bribe money), but uplift Allowances by about 6percent, and maybe withdraw the withdrawal taper as a means of simplifying taxes while turning the trickle down to a drip down. Such policies might salvage the tory part and leave little ground for Labour to moan about and should reduce the interest rates (Depending on world energy prices). Seems like buying ships from Turkish ship yards looks like the value for money move with a kit out of secret warfare stuff in Barrow would be a decent move.

"Chris Philp is no longer Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
Whitehall sources tell me he was rung by the prime minister in the last hour and asked to move to the Cabinet Office, and he agreed to that"
That is interesting and is not such a daft move , there is always a lot of Cabinet Office Reports / Treasury / Bank of England / OBR crossover each get departmental budgets (and Cabinet Office get departmental policies and priorities) so it is worth having perhaps some savings and better joined up government.

(James Cleverly has just been mentioned as the Education Secretary for School Holidays)

Well, that was quick, she looked to run away quite rapidly when faced with a hostile media's questions about her own position. I reckon the knives are out.

It's all influenced by the media, they're far too good at winding up the general public. It wouldn't matter what party was in power and what their policies were the media would twist it to benefit the money markets (which seem to control the media). Probably a simplistic view but that's how it looks to me.

I'd call that realistic Kev. I doubt it's a deliberate plot but that is the effect the media have when they start hounding a story.
Now they all go home for the weekend and plot. The big problem the Tories have is that any plotting will have to be done based on personalities as there are no alternative policies to consider. As someone pointed out yesterday Truss has backed into a cul de sac for her defiant stand. It would take a better politician than her to find a way out of the hole she is in. Capitulation to the 'men in grey suits' would have been an option in days gone by but I doubt if they exist now.... She is held hostage by all the backbenchers, not an elite group pulling strings in the background.

Later.... See THIS BBC report of its political correspondent's assessment of where we are after Truss's car crash interview interview yesterday which ended with her walking away from the incredibly hostile questions.
Many MPs are openly expressing opinions that in normal times would result in them immediately losing the Whip. They are convinced that Truss is the author of their woes and sacking Kwarteng doesn't change anything.They are convinced the next election will be a blood bath and they will be in opposition for a generation. This means that most of them will lose their jobs and as I have often pointed out, this is the most important thing on their minds.
This story hasn't run its course yet and nothing would surprise me.
In case anyone is interested, I can remember most of what happened in politics since 1945 and I have never seen anything remotely like this. It's incredible and as the Matt cartoon says......



What do you think the rest of the world thinks about us?

Stanley wrote: ↑15 Oct 2022, 02:16 Capitulation to the 'men in grey suits' would have been an option in days gone by but I doubt if they exist now.... She is held hostage by all the backbenchers, not an elite group pulling strings in the background.

I'm pretty sure the men in gray suits do exist and that they are openly behind closed doors (if that is possible) now running the country. As soon as the mini budget hit the fan Conservative MPs were openly talking of Liz Toast. Kwasi Kwarteng was sent on a suicide mission to meet the IMF. Almost immediately it would appear that the long knives came out and told Ms Toast to sack him and install Jeremy Hunt as chancellor. People will remember that Mr Hunt quietly destroyed the NHS over six years and ignored the potential catastrophic SARS reports where he took no preparatory action. Now labeling as a do as you're told man. The government now in a position of not being able to change PM's again or call a general election they have left PM Toast in position but nominally without portfolio or appearing in pubic doing her automaton routine. So who is running the government? BoE, IMF, Money markets look the favorites probably stuffing the Cabinet with more Yes men and told not to make any waves hoping things will calm down and poll ratings improve.

That is my view but to be honest something is rotten in the state of Denmark and anything is possible.

I'm sure you are somewhere near the truth Ken. I heard it being said openly on R4 yesterday 'senior figures' would be visiting Ms Truss at Chequers and telling her that she has to step down. The plotters are openly touting names like Sunak and Mordaunt for senior posts. A mechanism will be found to effect the change without a leadership contest or a general election. It would seem that we are in for another fun-filled day.....

Very little is being said about what set up the conditions for this disaster. I thought at the time that apart from the length of time the process was taking, the fact that in the final stages the candidates were pandering to the Tory membership meant that the policies they would be expounding would be most likely to succeed if they were rabidly 'Conservative'. I think this is why Truss chose growth and the archetypical Tory policy of tax cuts for her offering. It worked, she convinced the blue-rinse shires and she got the job. Problem was she had made the wrong promises and had then to stick to them despite them being obviously wrong. So we got to where we are.
I think the decision has already been made to do the unthinkable and ditch her. That gives them two years to repair the damage. I don't think that bit of the plan will work. What everybody seems to have forgotten is that the outside world has moved on, they are going to be forced to settle over Northern Ireland and accepting a de facto border in the Irish sea. That in turn will trigger agitation for Irish Reunification and regardless of what the Supreme Court says Scotland is going to get into open revolt about Indiref2. Whoever ends up as PM they and the Party are on a hiding to nothing.
Notice that elder statesmen like Major, Clarke et al are keeping quiet.

While Liz Toast has disappeared somewhere in No10 Jeremy Hunt is repeating the U-turns as though they were something he has instigated and will now be taking stock of what to do next. We must wait until the November budget to find out. All under the eyes of the OBR. which is to give the impression its a good budget for the country while reality it means is that the money markets can see where the money is coming from. e: it doesn't matter that Joe Public will pay for it as long as someone does. It also gives the Grey Suits four weeks to decide what do do about Liz Toast whether its one person or a coalition they will decide the format of the budget and tell Hunt to get on with it. At each move the right-wing media will try to con the people that this is a new government and should forget about what's one on in the past.
Wolves in sheep clothing as they say.

Stanley wrote: ↑16 Oct 2022, 03:46 The plotters are openly touting names like Sunak and Mordaunt for senior posts.

The plotters are in cliques and apparently one of these cliques is calling for Boris (yes, him) to return as PM!

Matthew Parris, in his Saturday article for The Times continues to dismantle Liz Truss. He reminds us that back at the beginning of this year he wrote about her and said she was crackers. She lacks a switched on feedback mechanism, she's on broadcast all the time and never on receive. A dysfunctional robot, created by the Tory Right Wing but running out of control. From listening to his many political friends and colleagues, Parris believes she'll be out by the end of the week. It's either the end of her as PM or the end of the Tory Party.

Our politicians blindly voted to leave the EU when they should have known it would be a disaster. Similarly, they let Truss become PM when her plans with Kwarteng were already published in their 2012 book Britannia Unchained. Do our politicians never carry out research and apply due diligence? See this Guardian article from 1st October: LINK

Much depends on what the Asian markets do when they open this morning. See THIS for the latest from Hunt on who is in charge and what is happening. I see that Truss is to 'host a reception for the cabinet on Monday to get their input on the government's economic plans, while Mr Hunt will hold discussions with all Conservative MPs later this week.' . I would have thought they would have been better off begging Sir Tom Scholar to come back into the Treasury and taking advice from him and whoever he thought appropriate. His choice would not include the Cabinet and MPs, it was them that got us into this mess in the first place. But that would mean losing face and another U Turn. I'd be interested to know what Mark Carney thought also, there's another firm hand on the tiller that we have lost.....
Later at 05:00. the Asian markets have opened without any immediate crash in the £Sterling which has to be good news.

We are told that Kwasi Kwarteng now replaced by Jeremy Hunt as a safe pair of hands but is still regarded by many as having a doubtful ideological pedigree particularly by the Unite Union with Sharon Graham who claims that Hunt wanted to make the NHS part of the trade deal with America. Now backing Liz Toast in every breath but with the Institute of Fiscal Studies pointing out a UK financial black hole of between £40 and £60 Billion Hunt is claiming it can be closed but it will be tough and hard decisions will have to be made. The hard decisions are cuts in services that will affect ordinary people ie:_ austerity in any other name. Just because he has declared them in advance of the budget seems in his mind to make them acceptable. He also states we should forget what has happened in the past three weeks and look towards the future. Suddenly the Tory slide into poverty and chaos only started three weeks ago, people should forget about the previous twelve years of misrule and the lies of Brexit including ten years of austerity for public sector workers. In less than two days Hunt has raised himself to the same level of incompetency that Liz Toast took five weeks to do. No amount of twisting and turning and behind the scenes plotting will turn this ultra right-wing Tory government into that overblown propaganda compassionate one.

Three Tory MPs openly saying Liz Toast must go. Will this cascade into open rebellion?
And for Hunt. The boy stood on the burning deck.