POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

I think it's safe to assume that as far as possible the overhaul of post-Brexit legislation will, as far as possible, result in a better outcome for the investors in industry than the workers.
See THIS BBC report on Barclay's statement of the reasons for the plight of the NHS. His list is Covid, Flu and the aftermath of the pandemic. No recognition at all of the effect of government policies for the last two decades, reducing the number of beds available, failing to finance maintenance and new hospital builds, failing to maintain the wages and conditions of staff and worst of all, responding to every criticism by saying they are investing money but never explaining why it is needed, whether it is enough or whether it is immediate funding or blue sky aspiration. Things like Johnson's 40 hospitals spring to mind.
Flu and Covid have put "massive pressure" on the NHS and reducing backlogs caused by the pandemic will "take time", Health Secretary Steve Barclay has said. Speaking amid mounting concern over hospital delays, he said the government was working on freeing up beds. He said this would relieve pressure in A&Es and on ambulance services.
This is beyond disingenuous, it is misleading to the point of being untrue. It's an example of how weasel words are used to bring down a fog of debate on a matter which is actually quite clear. At root the failure to fund Social Care is resulting in bed-blocking and this is one of the most important single factors. (There are others of course) I seem to remember the Buffoon promising us he had a plan to 'fix' social care. Really? Where is it?
(Another thought. Sunak promised us 'competence and grip'. Has anyone seen any evidence of this?)

[plaques]

As always the first thing is to blame someone else for the problem. We now hear that one of the main scapegoats are people with heart problems who stayed away from hospitals during the pandemic years. No mention that they were told to avoid hospitals which were already busting at the seams, remember the Nightingale hospitals, and secondly heart patients knew that if they did go it may well be their last visit. Now they are the villains again because they are going when both influenza and covid are peaking again which incidentally seems to have come as a bit of a surprise to the Health Secretary. Looking on the bright side hospitals are 'maximising' the number of beds available something they have been doing for years but its a good sound bite so why not use it?
The Tories seem bent on moving to a simplified health care model where individuals pay for their care either through private insurance or they don't get any at all. As a reminder a recent poll asked people if they could manage an extra £20 a month in their outgoings.Poll. In 37% of cases the answers range from difficult to impossible. So what would paying for health care mean to these people?

[Stanley]

What we will never hear is the truth, that health has to be paid for and we spend less per head than almost any government in the Western World. But even then the government has to spoil things by cutting back on spending.
The question that is worth asking is what do they spend the money on? We are given clues every now and again. Defence procurement is officially described as a disaster by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The OBR have also criticised Cross Rail, HS2 and government management of big ticket items in general.
The enduring mystery is why the Treasury doesn't go after the real prize, the amount of tax that is allowed to slip out over the borders by companies who make profit here but pay taxes in another jurisdiction. Then there are the concessions to Non Doms and the way we allow Llps to set up 'brass plate companies' and avoid disclosing owners and those who benefit so they can be taxed. Successive reports estimate the tax harvest that could be gained form these sources as billions annually. The suspicion being of course that the beneficiaries show their gratitude by making contributions to Party Funds.

[Stanley]

Yesterday when talking about wasted money I forgot to mention Trident and Polaris. We only maintain a nuclear deterrent to reinforce the old lie about 'punching above our weight'. Time we stopped dining out on old WW2 stories and accepted that we are a small island off the coast of Europe.
See THIS for Sunak's bid to convince the nation he is on track and knows what he is doing. As usual a bit of forensic analysis is needed to unravel the hype and spin from the hard facts. The first thing that struck me was his simplistic pledge to reduce waiting lists in the NHS. He admits it's an aspiration but then goes on to tell the nation to hold him to account if it doesn't happen. The two things don't square up. In addition he says nothing about how he is going to do this. The truth is that there are so many interdependent factors, shortage of built facilities and maintenance, shortage of properly trained staff and a social care system that takes the bed load off acute hospitals, all of them long term issues, that in truth all that can be done is move the deck chairs around.
Consider this statement; "The PM said he was "taking urgent action" and increasing NHS funding. He said the government was also increasing bed capacity and the extra money would help ensure people who are ready to be discharged can be moved into social care or looked after in the community. (Is this the 40 new hospitals? )" He says nothing about how the 'extra money' can accomplish this improvement. This isn't a matter of simply throwing money at the NHS but addressing the mistakes made over the last twenty years. (I include the disastrous Labour re-design of the NHS management structure)
Here's the full list:
Halve inflation this year to ease the cost of living
Grow the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity across the country
Ensure national debt is falling
NHS waiting lists will fall and people will get the care they need more quickly
Pass new laws to stop small boat crossings, making sure those who arrive illegally are detained and swiftly removed
Small matters like a drop in trade levels of 15% and a fall in economic activity, both caused by Brexit seem to be ignored. How can he promise a growth of the economy when all the forecasts put us into recession until well into 2024? The same applies to national debt. The only way he can influence that is by harsher austerity measures. (which include refusing to countenance wage rises in the public sector.)
No. I'm sorry but this is pure political hokum. The place to start is by telling the truth and addressing the real problems the greatest of which is a Tory Party that is in thrall to the rabid ERG group who are hell bent on dragging the UK back into the 19th century with an electorate under the cosh and controlled totally by the government.
This speech is aimed more at reassuring his back-benchers that there is a way back from last year's chaos than serious national policy. We need more than flashy political flim flam, this will not do.

[plaques]

Sunak's speech is preparation for the next general election. All the "hold me to account" comparisons are futured to 2024 and beyond. Hospital waiting times now 2 years will be reduced to 18 months by 2024. WOW!, Extra beds will will be available. Army tents where the ambulances unload? More funding for the NHS. I will ask my pals what they can do to syphon it off. Inflation RATE down by half. Prices only going up half as fast as they are doing now. That's if the war in Ukraine stops but that's out of my hands. Leaving the most important part until last. "I will stop small boats crossing the Channel. But the government says there is an infinite number to take their place. An infinite number ? someone needs a bit more maths tuition.
Even if, and that's a big if, the message will be.. See things are improving stick with us so we can finish the job. Jam tomorrow, then back on your heads.

[Stanley]

I know the electorate has a notoriously short memory but how could anyone vote this lot back in?

[Stanley]

See THIS account of Grant Shapps sabre-rattling on the subject of legislation to force unions to guarantee services. How can a union guarantee a service when it has no part in providing that service. Their role is protecting their workers. It seems to me the lawyers will make a fortune out of this one. Margaret Thatcher considered this one but if you remember decided that sequestering Union Funds was the way to go and even that didn't last.
Starmer has learned his lesson about the Tories stealing Labour ideas, that's why he isn't putting any hostages up to fortune in his 'major speech' yesterday. I still don't see him as vote winner......
(I listened to Lisa Nandy being interviewed about Starmer's speech. I reckon she could have delivered it more convincingly.)

[PanBiker]

Starmer has learned his lesson about the Tories stealing Labour ideas, that's why he isn't putting any hostages up to fortune in his 'major speech' yesterday. I still don't see him as vote winner......
(I listened to Lisa Nandy being interviewed about Starmer's speech. I reckon she could have delivered it more convincingly.)

There is a lot of chatter within the rank and file of it being time to sail a new ship in the form of a Socialist Party. That would show how popular he is.

[plaques]

Lets face it the Tories are doing their best to make Brexit and rejoining the Common Market as impossible as possible. If Starmer exposes a loop hole they will make it a priority to close it.
On failing to supply a minimum cover a sackable offence surely since the NHS cannot keep up with the current demand then the government and the NHS administrators would fall into this category.
New laws to stop people coming to the UK illegally seems a bit surplus to the laws we already have. It is already illegal to come without proper authorisation so why aren't these 'illegals' not taken to court, fined or put in gaol. Why? because immigrants are persona non grata and why Brits immigrating to other countries are ex-pats. Put them to work, make sure they pay their taxes and if necessary put a premium on accessing social services before a given time scale.

[Stanley]

I see no signs of ministers actually negotiating. All I see is them making unhelpful remarks like Sunak saying the unions should enter into 'grown up' talks and the MP who said that firefighters on £32,000 a year weren't likely to be using food banks.
It's quite obvious that all the unions would react positively to a proper negotiation that recognised that pay had lagged behind inflation and reasonable action to address the deficit.
As for immigration..... Nobody in government is admitting that the single most important factor is our inability to send the travellers back to the country where they entered Europe. The reason for this is of course Brexit. We were promised restoration of 'Sovereign Rights', we have now got sovereign responsibility and the right to act. Problem is nobody worked out what exactly we could do about it. Now whose fault could that be?

[plaques]

Sunak and Steve Barclay now having stopped clapping have suddenly noticed that the NHS is in trouble something to do with pay. Jumping into action they have called a meeting to discuss pay for 2023/24. Now a year behind the curve they will argue that since inflation is projected to drop to 4% in 2024, another of Sunak's unicorn promises. Lets forget whats happening now as water under the bridge and keep on repeating the script on Johnson's Brexit battle bus as fact.

On Monday, health unions have been invited to meet Health Secretary Steve Barclay to discuss pay for 2023-24 from April - but union leaders say the government must act on the current pay dispute for this year, and the talks will not stop planned strikes in January.

Simultaneously it would appear Sunak has invited ALL unions to talks this coming monday. If they are all collectively to appear in one room then it will be a shambles with nothing resolved On the other hand if there is to be separate talks its going to be a very busy day unless its all window dressing for the media to support the government.

The Government has invited "all union leaders" in for crunch strike talks on Monday next week, Rishi Sunak has announced.

[Stanley]

"unless its all window dressing for the media to support the government."
I fear you have hit the nail on the head here Ken. Sunak and Barclay are grandstanding in order to give the impression they are doing something about the crisis in the NHS. See this LINK.
Nothing they did yesterday helps the current situation in the slightest. Was it very hot in that room? Coats off, shirt sleeves rolled up and let's get down to some work? Was that on the advice of the spin doctors?
(Why did they need signs on the table to inform who they are?)
The commentators are right, This government in general and Sunak in particular will be judged by the cost in blood of the stand-off with the unions and already there is evidence that the neglect of the NHS is causing deaths.
The longer the impasse is allowed to go on, the worse the outcome. Sooner or later this is going to dawn on the politicians, the campaign for the next General Election starts here.....

[plaques]

Virtual wards why not! Nurses and medical staff have been on virtual pay for years. Virtual wards are basically treatment at home which includes care homes with the proviso you have a telephone or internet link. At a stroke they have created thousands of hospital beds. Another box ticked. Remember Bitcoin?
Sunak's meeting with health care officials looks like its a preparation for making sure they are all singing from the same hymn sheet. Thou shall not rock the boat and no loose cannons. Surely Sunak first as Chancellor and now second choice Prime Minister has been briefed as to what's happening in the NHS. They have been in charge for 12 years then suddenly a big propaganda splash about getting heads together with the intention of making the nurses play ball and work more efficiently (fewer works doing more work) so that the pay cut they may suffer is slightly less than what is currently on the cards.

Right ladies and gentlemen this is what I want you to say.

Sunak meeting NHS admin.jpg

[Tizer]

Sunak should send a copy of that photo to Putin and say `I've got a bigger table than you and more people come to listen to me'.

[Stanley]

"They have been in charge for 12 years then suddenly a big propaganda splash about getting heads together with the intention of making the nurses play ball and work more efficiently"
That's the key element of the defence they are building for when the shit hits the fan Ken. 'Not me Guv but the workers not being productive enough'.
See THIS for a closely related item of news. Sunak being asked whether he uses the NHS or goes private. I think we can all make a good guess about the answer to that. (He refuses to say citing it as 'a private matter'.) Funny how most PMs have made a point of stressing their reliance on the NHS but Sunak sees it differently.
I think Sunak knows that eventually he is going to have to allow these disputes to be settled by partially addressing their common purpose, to claw back some of the losses sustained in the last 12 years of 'austerity' in which wages have been eroded by inflation to the point where they can no longer be described as a living wage. Food banks in hospitals for nurses says it all. He thinks like an accountant and he is hanging tough for as long as possible in the hope that the rate of inflation increase begins to fall as is forecast. If and when this happens it gives him an argument for disputing the arithmetic that produces 19% wage claims. His aim is to halve those figures.
The factors militating against waiting any longer are the growing public awareness of how bad the pay is and the fact it is costing lives. This has a bearing on the result of the next General Election and this in turn directly impacts the job security of all Tory MPs. This is why eventually it is Sunak's own back benchers who will call the shots. They have the power to sack him in the final analysis and he made some big promises about healing the rifts in the Party that can come back to bite him.
My own experience of how British Politics works suggests a different cause and effect. I see no evidence in Sunak of deep conviction or strong philosophy. He seems to me to be shallow and self seeking. I have never heard him speak convincingly of any political duty to protect the poor and less able in society. He sees cutting taxes as the way to reward the electorate. He doesn't seem to realise that this betrays his ignorance of the facts of poverty, poor people don't pay taxes so improvements in rates mean nothing to them.
Conversely this is where I also see a deficit in Starmer. I am not clear in my mind what his ethics are. How is he going to improve the lives of the ordinary people. He seems to be pandering to the middle classes in order to repeat what Blair did to make Labour electable. It may be that the time for that ploy has passed. Perhaps people need what laid the foundations for left wing politics in the first place. A strong social democratic message that cuts through the flim flam and maps out a route to a fairer society. I know, it's the socialist dream but no less desirable for that.
One thing is certain, what we have now is not fit for purpose.

[plaques]

I think Sunak knows that eventually he is going to have to allow these disputes to be settled by partially addressing their common purpose, to claw back some of the losses sustained in the last 12 years of 'austerity' in which wages have been eroded by inflation to the point where they can no longer be described as a living wage.

George Osborne's austerity has now been identified as the root cause of the problem we are in now. Years of reduced wages cuts to social services have undermined investment and consequently a reduction in GDP. Novara Media 13 mins. The trick now is how to convince people that austerity never happened. Taking guidance from some religious groups where the Earth was created 5,000 years ago the UK's financial problems started with the Covid pandemic aggravated by the Ukraine war. Austerity and Brexit according to Sunak's higher maths vanish into zero to be totally ignored. The media is happy to go along with this nonsense quoting Tory MP who 30 years ago never needed to go to a food bank. The fact they only started in 2000 doesn't come into the equation. Then we have the 30p per meal MP. Shoppers who reduce their weekly food bill to £4, Energy uses whose monthly bill is less than the standing charge. In fact we've never had it so good.

Sunak's 'hold me to account' promises, 2 points for each one you can remember, have no attached plan, no explanation of how he proposes to get there, just promises to be replaced with the next crisis that will be sorted by even more promises. Hold a poll asking what today's top priorities are and the cost of living and the state of the NHS will be the top of the list. Read the media and its Harry and Megan.

[Pluggy]

Hmmm, Plaques watching far left videos ? doesn't ring true somehow.... . I found Novara Media when I was particularly looking for extreme left news sources. Nothing like as bad as even moderate right sources IMO. In general its little different to reading the Guardian which is rated left centre on my bias checker. In general from my investigations and in my opinion , the hard left is much more palatable than the hard right, where pseudoscience and conspiracy theories are a mainstay of their content. It goes without saying a hard left source isn't going to look favourably on a Tory government. Beware people telling you what you want to hear ?

PS The YEC's usually think the earth is 6000 years old, Only out by a factor of around 800,000. Archaeological sites are often dated by the pottery they find, we've been making pots for around 10,000 years. Having said that it turns out they've found pottery in China thats North of 15,000 years old. Link

[Stanley]

I'm not watching 'far left media'. My opinions are based on my reading of history. my memory of what happened in years gone by and my experience of how the world works. All these tell me that Ken is on the right track. As Sunak has demonstrated today with the performance of his ministers addressing the union's complaints, the strategy is to hang tough until the expected fall in inflation rise and then try to argue that that should be the basis for any wage agreements. This is why all the ministers refuse to look at what happened in 2022, the year of 10%+inflation. They will only talk about the future when they hope inflation will not be as high a figure. This ignores the fact that that figure is only the increase, the rise in price stays in place.

[plaques]

Hmmm, Plaques watching far left videos ? doesn't ring true somehow.... .

. Novara Media tend to put up some good charts from the Financial Times which are generally behind pay walls but after that it all gets a bit blinkered which is something we all drop into now and again. Normally when the resident 'guests' start with their opinions I'll switch off to something else. I have been known to read the odd Telegraph but draw the line at the Express.

[Stanley]

I have to agree about the Telegraph and the Express Ken. The Express has been very pro-monarchy from what I have heard of their headlines lately.
See THIS BBC report on the outcome of yesterday's meetings between striking unions and ministers.
"Unite said the meetings were "a missed opportunity", while the Royal College of Nursing said they were "bitterly disappointing". Unison said there were discussions over pay but no "tangible concessions" which would enable Wednesday's ambulance strikes to be called off. However, a government source described the talks as useful and constructive."
How can the 'government source' be allowed to get away with a statement like that which is untrue?
Exactly the outcome we all predicted. (And the same is true of the parallel talks with the rail unions...) It seems obvious that the ministers are all marching in step following their Leader's instructions to hang tough and wait in hopes of a fall in the inflation rate which they can use in the negotiations....
Meanwhile, while the politicians pursue their grubby little games to avoid paying a fair rate for essential jobs the NHS burns and patients are put at risk, some dying as a result. This is not the way to govern a country.....

[plaques]

On nurses pay Sunak has missed a golden opportunity to lift his statesman's credentials to a higher level instead he is still pandering to the right-wing factions that are demanding tough actions and more confrontation. In response to the threat of more nurses demands he is rushing through parliament a minimum cover bill. Part of the excuse for this move is that a lot of EU countries have them although never used them but hasn't the UK left the EU because we don't like their laws? I can see lots of Union objections which will probably include the fact that it is retrospective to the contracts already signed. So instead of addressing the problem he has created another barrier which will almost guarantee that the dispute will rumble on for weeks or even months.

Its worth reminding that only a week or so ago he was promising to reduce the backlog waiting time from 18 months to 12 months. In one stroke he has probably added months to this time.

[PanBiker]

The final cherry on the cake is attempting to render the workers into slaves or serfs. No other reason for pursuing legislation that makes striking illegal. Despicable in my view but par for the course with this excuse for a government.

[Stanley]

Quite right Ian. Instead of addressing the problem the unions are posing they are trying to remove their only weapon, the right to withdraw their labour. It is a moot legal point as to whether legislation can do that. On another tack, does this mean they sack nurses and paramedics when they should be getting more in post?
Apart from being a feudal knee-jerk response it is politically and legally illiterate.
See THIS BBC report of the efforts by the Tories to get the anti-union legislation in place.
My breath was taken away by Grant Shapps saying "We are duty-bound to protect the lives... of the British people"
If he really believes that he is duty bound to ensure that the health and emergency services are properly trained and staffed. This necessitates making investments in the NHS and paying reasonable wages. Or have I got it wrong?
Despicable behaviour and an insult to the intelligence not only of the workers but the voters. Do they imagine for one minute that we can't see through this?

[plaques]

The ambulance men are on strike again today. Amazingly this seems to have come as a surprise to the government. The Union is legally bound to tell employers as soon a ballot is to take place. The ballot can take weeks and the results in fine detail must be made public especially to the employers. Strike action must take place within 6 months from the start of the ballot otherwise it becomes illegal. The governments complaint is that emergency cover has not been negotiated at National level. The Unions point out that each Trust has arranged their own level to suit their needs.

On the legality any new legislation will affect contracts that have already been signed.

“If you take part in a strike or other industrial action, you may be in breach of your contract of employment. However, if you are dismissed
for taking part in strike or other industrial action which is called officially and is otherwise lawful, the dismissal will be unfair if it takes place fewer
than twelve weeks after you started taking part in the action, and depending on the circumstances may be unfair if it takes place later.”

All very complicated with litigation that could last until the next general election which is probably why they are proposing it.

[Stanley]

Thanks for the finer details of the rules around ballots Ken. On a shallower level I see Sunak has said he is registered with an NHS GP and is grateful for the NHS. None of that precludes also having access to a private service as well of course. I caught a clip of him on the news berating anyone who 'increased the risk to patients'. He was of course aiming this at Labour and the Unions but I was so sickened by the hypocrisy I had to switch him off. Ask yourself who has increased the risk to patients most over the last ten years....
See THIS BBC report on a matter which has surfaced into UK National News after being pursued for weeks by Private Eye in conjunction with some very dodgy goings on over the proposed freeport in the NE.
"When thousands of crabs began washing up dead off Teesside and North Yorkshire's beaches in October 2021, it was a tragedy for the local fishing industry, and the environment. An investigation by the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said the most likely cause of the 2021 die-off was a naturally-occurring algal bloom. Devastating for fishing, but seemingly unpreventable. It was a conclusion that many in the fishing industry did not believe. Instead, they suspected it was industrial toxins released during the dredging of the River Tees. They commissioned their own report from researchers at four northern universities. In September 2022, those academics concluded that the crabs were more likely to have been poisoned by pyridine - an industrial chemical that is present in the river's mud. This is where the freeport and the thousands of jobs the Conservatives are promising there becomes an issue.
The chemical can be released by maintenance dredging of the Tees but as Private Eye has pointed out the construction of the freeport demands dredging of different parts of the sea bed far more likely to contain Pyridine as a pollution from past industry.
PE i8s usually on the money with these investigations and this one is no exception. Watch this space! Bear in mind that the freeports have long been one of Sunak's pet projects and he is deeply involved in this one on Teeside. A slow burner I think.