POLITICS CORNER

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Part watched a one of those painful morning political discussions where a trader said he had made £2M over the last two years. He followed his theory that while inequality was rising the economy would fall therefore he bet conditions would get worse. He argued that giving hand outs wouldn't change the equality direction since the poor would have to spend it, prices would rise and the profits to the 1% would continue. The government would be faced to borrow more etc etc: His solution. Stop money going to the rich and close the loopholes was his theme. Thomas Piketty was mentioned but this was met with zero response and blank faces. The Conservative MP counted with. " there is a budget in March and another next year we should wait until we can see what comes out of them'.

I couldn't stand any more and switched over.

[Stanley]

"Thomas Piketty was mentioned but this was met with zero response and blank faces. "
I know exactly what you mean Ken, if you remember, when we discovered Piketty and read him we commented that he should be required reading for all politicians. I hesitate to say this but from the attitudes you describe, one wonders whether some politicians would understand 'Capital' if they had the capacity to concentrate long enough to read it.
I am struck so often that events are unfolding just as Thomas forecast in 'Capital'. We are watching society crumble under the constant economic pressure. Much is made of the effects of Putin's war against Ukraine but that has only accelerated a trend that was already established by the disastrous political and economic policies pursued by the Tory party in pursuit of their main aim, to take us back to the laisser Faire ethos of the late 19th century where the workers knew their place. (And that includes the catastrophe of Brexit.)
The unbelievable fact is that the people who espouse these policies are too thick to realise that in achieving their aim they will destroy the foundations of their own world. No man is an island and they cannot insulate themselves from the consequences of gross inequality.
This morning's hollow laugh creator is our Chancellor, Hunt. See THIS BBC report.
"Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will set out his plan to boost growth on Friday, as criticism mounts over the government's plan for the economy. In his speech in central London, Mr Hunt will outline the opportunities in what he called "the growth sectors which will define this century". He will also pledge to build on "the freedoms which Brexit provides". But it comes in a week the government has faced accusations that it has no long-term plan for growth. On Monday, the CBI business group warned the UK is lagging behind rivals on green growth. The next day, insolvency firm Begbies Traynor said the number of firms on the brink of going bust jumped by more than a third at the end of last year. And on Thursday, car firms warned the UK has not got a strategy to attract manufacturers."
So forgive me for the hollow laugh, I agree it is no laughing matter. I don't expect him to do any better that Liz Truss did with her brand of economics.

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Hunt. He will also pledge to build on "the freedoms which Brexit provides".

But it comes in a week the government has faced accusations that it has no long-term plan for growth.

Notice that the wording has changed from 'Benefits' to Freedoms. After three years of trying to find a benefit even Jacob Rees-Mogg has given up. Hunt doesn't have a plan only aspirations based on lowering living standards and quality standards. Great if £27M can so easily be forgotten that paying tax on it is just an oversight. Freedoms will allow the UK to manufacture to such a low standard that nobody in their right mind will buy it. So much for booming exports. Lower living standards means people will have to buy the cheapest food available with the possibility that it would be unsalable outside the UK. One of the strange things is that when we were part of the EU the UK complained that the government was hamstrung in supporting industries. Biden in America has just released massive subsidies to encourage green investment. Immediately the EU are considering similar moves now leaving the UK behind in the investment stakes. Meanwhile British Volt is going into administration with the possibility of being taken over by a foreign country. The Tories have been talking the talk for 13 years now its time for them to walk the walk. In other words put up or shut up.

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"Hunt doesn't have a plan only aspirations based on lowering living standards and quality standards. "
You do have a knack Ken of putting your finger directly on the key fact. That's the one for me in respect of Hunt's get out of jail free attempt. The same thought came to me as I identified all the key waffle words of a politician talking up something to keep him in post. Notice the use of the modern magic, artificial intelligence.
I thought he was being very foolish when he guaranteed that HS2 will reach Euston. For a start off, that isn't within his power. and secondly the revised sums in the economic case for HS2 (always a contested calculation) are now adverse and critics say that the project should be scrapped. (When taxed with the 'fact' it would be cheaper to complete it than scrap it the opposition put up a very convincing case as to why this is not correct.) He may live to regret that one.....
In another part of the Westminster snake pit see THIS update on the Raab affair. I have never been comfortable with Raab. I do not trust him and have no difficulty in accepting allegations that he is a nasty piece of work. For one thing he is on record as saying that reform is needed to prevent "militant union bosses" holding the "hard working majority" to ransom. The cry of the rabid right winger down the ages.

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More weasel words from Jeremy Hunt. On our way towards growing the economy making it high Tech high wage based on green investments even the optimists know that this will take years if not decades. But meanwhile while we face the ever present head winds there will be no tax cuts. He could have added that there would be no tax increases but that may be pushing the boat out too far. The smokescreen he is offering is that he is concentrating on getting the rate of inflation down. No mention of reduction in existing prices this is something we are expected to live with. The rate of inflation as most people now realise is the rate of forward price increases. Hunt can't do anything about external price increases like energy or food and supply line costs and as we have seen he is reluctant to impose windfall taxes on excess profits or even to reign in tax avoidance via offshore tax havens. This leaves one things that is now self evident a limit on pay rises. The target is social services especial the NHS which can be sold off and privatised.
Would you buy a secondhand car from this man??

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The thing that strikes me about all these modern Tory Chancellors is that they act like accountants. Their focus is on the balance sheet rather than the human beings behind it who pay the real world price for their fancy economic strategies. The Chancellor's first duty should be ensuring that food, shelter and health care are available to everyone in society. Hunt's strategies are all aimed at the balance sheet and formulated with politics in mind, he knows who the people are that he should be protecting and it is not the lower 80 percentile in society.
In this he is backed up by Sunak, (Another accountant....) who is refusing to negotiate with the striking workers until he sees inflation dropping so that can be used as a bargaining chip in the talks. Meanwhile the general public suffer, not the wealthy.
I heard someone ask the question yesterday "How can Labour possibly not win the next election?" My answer to that is don't rule it out. The British electorate has a notoriously short memory span and many of the Tory Die-hards would still be voting Conservative even if Genghis Khan was in charge. Nothing is certain and we have yet to see genuine principled campaigning coming out of the Starmer camp. I still think they need to ditch him and go for a new leader while there is still time. Starmer is the wrong man!
Later.... A cabinet Office memo has been leaked proving that Johnson was warned about taking help from Green over his loan. So all the lies about it are crumbling. I also hear that advisers say they warned Sunak about Zahawi's tax affairs.
Later still, we hear that the independent adviser has reported and Sunak has sacked Zahawi.

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Well he's gone from the Cabinet. Zahawi bites the dust. But it looks like Sunak had to be told to get rid of him. Too late to regain a strong man image. There are still questions that need answers and if the media was to do its stuff it could prove very embarrassing for Sunak.

But in a letter written by Sir Laurie to the PM this morning, the ethics adviser concluded that Mr Zahawi "has shown insufficient regard for the general principles of the Ministerial Code" and has not fulfilled the requirements of being an "honest, open and an exemplary leader".

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I think it says a lot that it didn't take the Ethics adviser long to produce a damning report on Zahawi. See THIS BBC report on the sacking. Notice that nowhere does Zahawe apologise, admit wrong or mention owing tax. Westminster rumours say that he is furious at the sacking and vowing he will fight the verdict.
As for where it leaves Sunak.... Ken is quite right, this is too little too late and Sunak cannot avoid the accusation that he was weak. He is trying to please everybody including rebellious faction in his backbenchers and subversive elements like the ERG whilst at the same time trying to live up to the impossible promises he made when he got the post.

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See THIS BBC report on the passing of legislation aimed at enforcing minimum service levels for some sectors during strikes.
Under the bill, some employees, including in the rail industry and emergency services, would be required to work during industrial action - and could be sacked if they refuse. The bill passed by 315 votes to 246 but will face further scrutiny in the House of Lords before it becomes law. Labour said the proposals ripped up protections against unfair dismissal. The party's deputy leader Angela Rayner said the bill would give the secretary of state the power to threaten key workers with the sack "on his whim". Unions have also criticised the bill as an attack on the right to strike and have threatened legal action if it passes.
This is classic rabid Tory reaction to the workers demonstrating that when it comes down to it, it isn't the big capital holders that run the country but the little people at the bottom of the pile who make sure that things work. Instead of trying to dominate them with sanctions they ought to be ensuring that they get a decent living wage and good conditions.
Unfortunately these jerks are too thick to realise that their world is supported by these workers and if they alienate them their comfortable world crumbles around them.

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Watched/listened to Sunak's reply as to why ambulance waiting times were so long and what was he going to do about it?
His reply was that the current build up was because of the Covid lockdown, (What isn't) where people were unable to get out for their vaccines and that natural immunity had also reduced as a consequence. The bulge that it created was too much for the service and they simply couldn't cope. For 2023 his aim was to get the backlog down through various measures and in 2024 to improve the situation even further. All very plausible and it would make sense if it was true. The actual uptake of both the Covid and influenza vaccines were no different during lockdown than previous years and for influenza actually rose after lockdown. The bulge is therefore no more than what one would expect in winter months. It goes without saying a winter bulge is self correcting providing the service is sound giving rise to the fact that much of the promised improvements are natural rather than structural improvements to the service.
More smoke and mirrors just like the reduction in the RATE of inflation that Hunt is offering up.

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[Stanley]

"More smoke and mirrors"
That sums up most of what we hear coming out of Westminster these days Ken.
SeeTHIS for an example of smoke and mirrors over the years. I heard David Frost who was Chief Negotiator of Task Force Europe from January 2020 until his resignation in December 2021 and is now Lord Frost saying yesterday when asked about Brexit that it had only caused a minor and temporary dip in trade. Really? See THIS more realistic report from the Resolution Foundation and recognise that other authorities talk about a 14% reduction in trade and a 12% reduction in economic activity as a direct result of Brexit.
I heard a Conservative person who I think is the Chairman of a committee in Parliament saying that he found it incredible that the Education Minister had missed the deadline for giving evidence to the negotiating talks. (I'm sorry if that doesn't make a lot of sense I can find no ment6ion in the news reports.)
While searching for the above I came across THIS BBC report about a 4 year old girl being killed by a dog in Milton Keynes.
"A four-year-old girl has died in a dog attack in Milton Keynes, police have said. Officers were called by the ambulance service just after 17:00 GMT on Tuesday to reports a dog had attacked a child in the back garden of a property in Broadlands, Netherfield. Shortly afterwards, it was confirmed a child had died at the property.
No arrests have been made, and the dog has been humanely destroyed. Police have called it a "tragic incident". "
I can't imagine how terrible that must be. My heart goes out to the family.

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Later.... I found THIS report in the Evening Standard.
The Department of Health and Social Care has missed the deadline for submitting evidence on next year’s pay award for more than a million NHS staff, MPs have been told. Former health minister Steve Brine, who is now chair of the House of Commons’ Health and Social Care Committee, said he was “astonished” that the Department had missed the deadline.
One is forced to ask:- "Are they serious about wanting an end to the disputes?"

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the IMF are predicting that the UK will come bottom of the table for the coming years growth. Not only are they below heavily sanctioned Russia but are showing negative growth. The response by the Tories is to reject the IMF figures as always wrong and backs up the statement with figures from Guido Fawkes. (Guido Fawkes is a right-wing political website published by British-Irish political blogger Paul Staines.) Their figures show that the IMF have underestimated UK growth over the years by and average of minus -0.4%. No mention is made of similar underestimates for other countries which would still put the UK at the bottom. By comparison the OBR's 2023 forecast for the UK is plus +0.2%. Anybody who follows 'forecasts' will know that they are constantly corrected and adjusted when all the information comes in.
For those who live in the real world of higher food prices, increased energy costs and lower wages is totally irrelevant to whether a year long forecast is 0.4% in error. A little bit like debating about have many fairies can dance on the head of a pin

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Boring I know but once again I agree with Ken. Any economist worth their salt will tell you that the miniscule movements in percentage terms that are seized on by politicians as proof positive they are right are actually well within the limits of accuracy inherent in these calculations. It tales a movement of at least .25% to excite them.
I agree that the IMF sometimes gets things wrong but we usually find that they are broadly accurate. I believe they are this time. The UK economy is under-performing the other nations (Even Russia for God's sake!) and the most likely reason for this is the failure of government policies.
"For those who live in the real world of higher food prices, increased energy costs and lower wages is totally irrelevant to whether a year long forecast is 0.4% in error. A little bit like debating about have many fairies can dance on the head of a pin"
Exactly....
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest. Was it my imagination or did I hear that Sunak has expressed confidence in Raab? Surely the kiss of death in any situation like this. One wonders why they say it.....
See THIS for the latest BBC report on the affair. My prediction? He is going to be found guilty and forced to resign. Sunak can't afford another Braverman. When that happens there will be a rash of complaints breaking the surface about others as well. We are already seeing pre-emptive defensive strikes from some politicians saying that politics is high pressure stuff and if you can't stand the heat you should stay out of the kitchen. They are getting their refutations in first!
Overall, I would say that Sunak is failing in his project to save the Tory Party. His handicap is entrenched rabid thinking and the inability to see that economics isn't the be all and end all of good governance. It needs a thing called ethics and principles and those he has not got. (If he has he is successfully hiding them.)

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From the latest PMQs...At the appointment of Zahawi to the leader of the Conservative Party no issues were raised. It doesn't take a genius to understand that there wouldn't be since it had all been in the media papers for several weeks. It would have taken a very dim Prime Minister not to know about them, but there you go... More information has come forward since last week which begs the question how much was available last week.

Rogues, all rogues.

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One of the biggest personal hazards during the air raids wasn't the bombs but the shrapnel raining down from our Ack Ack shells.

Fast forward 80+ years and the Russians have just launched their Inflation bombs on us. No green technology or reserves to stave off this attack the government have decided to throw up some interest rates at them. To quote Tom Lehrer,(Wernher von Braun) "Once the rockets are up where they come down is not my concern says Wernher von Braun".

We've got to do something otherwise the people will think we are useless.

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The funny thing is that I can't remember ever hearing of anyone being injured by falling shrapnel.
See THIS . It'd coming to something when the top political news of the day comes from Piers Morgan.....
I can't see any mention of a question about why ministers aren't negotiating with strikers but just leaving them to stew and get more and more angry.

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The funny thing is that I can't remember ever hearing of anyone being injured by falling shrapnel.

And you'll probably not hear much about those in negative equity who have to sell up at a big loss. Also the ones who will really be hit hard are the effluent affluent Tories who will hold their noses, whimper a little and still vote Tory.

Back to Andrew Bailey BofE. explaining the interest rate rise. The change in inflation rates is still problematical depending on world events but the supply side appears to be settling down. We don't comment on the discussions in committee, the outcome of events isn't a given and there are risks but we must get inflation down. This doesn't mean prices won't rise but they will rise at a slower rate. Also since this is a yearly based calculation then inflation will drop when set against last years high rate. (Smoke and mirrors). All this explained with hand movements similar to a tumble dryer. It all sounded like they didn't know what to do but to be on the safe side they did what they did last time.

Einstein's Insanity.... “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

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And if they read history instead of economics they would find plenty of clues as to what does or doesn't work. I have lost count of the number of times I have pointed out that when the Tories concentrated on 'sound money' in the 1920s they triggered the great inter war depression. Osborne chased sound money using austerity as his weapon of choice in 2010 and pray where did it end up? That's right, in the biggest and most severe depression for forty years.
But what the hell do I know about it....
I look at this morning's political headlines and note that Raab clings on by his fingernails. Is Sunak going to be forced to do another reverse ferret?
See THIS BBC report which is focussing on a surprising figure, Simon Case the Cabinet Secretary and senior civil servant. Normally these men sail on serenely under the radar but this is not the case here. Questions are being asked after multiple reports that Sunak didn't know about the sins of his ministers. This is unusual and could be significant.

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It has been reported that Jeremy Hunt in his March budget is planning to bring forward the retirement age for men of 68 years of age in 2035. The background logic is that people are living longer and therefor the cost of pensions over an extended period is too expensive. The problem with this logic is that life expectancy is now falling. The reason for this drop has not yet been explained but it is suspected that a lower standard of living including poor diet and housing conditions may be part of the reason. Unfortunately while life expectancy has been rising the quality of life for those over 60. has not been improving at the same rate. Ref...

Although a male in England could expect to live 79.4 years in 2018–20, his average healthy life expectancy was only 63.1 years – ie, he would have spent 16.3 of those years (20 per cent) in ‘not good’ health. In 2018–20 a female in England could expect to live 83.1 years, of which 19.3 years (23 per cent) would have been spent in ‘not good’ health. And although females live an average of 3.7 years longer than males, most of that time (3 years) is spent in poor health.

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Basically all Hunt is doing is looking for any cuts that can be made to keep enough money in the Treasury and government to allow it to function. The same strategy that Osborne operated and look how much good it did him!
He'll ignore the fact of falling life expectancy in deprived areas, it doesn't suit his back story.
I saw THIS in the BBC news thread. Liz Truss defending her alternative approach to the economy which she says was torpedoed by 'left wing economists'.
She is wrong of course, she failed because her economic policy was totally off the wall and a rabid Tory fantasy. She will never admit this even though the world's bankers came to that conclusion as soon as they heard the details. Funny how these people don't see any problem with following a course that everyone else condemns. Everyone is out of step except for them.
What puzzles me this morning is that the biggest story, the fight by millions to get an improvement in their wage, is being totally ignored. Sunak should be under attack because it is he who is demanding his ministers do not negotiate but try to wear the strikers down. So who is responsible for the effects of the strikes?

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It's not often that 'Sunday' on R4 at 07;00 gives us something that is overtly political but that's what happened this morning.
Frank Field is terminally ill and in a hospice but he is still cherent5 and lucid and so was interviewed this morning on the reasons why there is so much wrong in society.
I am not going to paraphrase him. I recommend you go to BBC iPlayer and listen to it. He made a lot of sense about what Labour should be campaigning on.
I always admired Frank Field and this interview is up to his usual standards.

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See THIS BBC report that the leader of the Unite Union says that Sunak is missing form the pay talks.
The leader of a union representing striking ambulance workers has called on Rishi Sunak to intervene in the NHS pay dispute. On the eve of the biggest week of strikes in NHS history, Unite's Sharon Graham said: "Where is Rishi Sunak, why is he not at the negotiating table?" It came after the head of a nurses' union urged the PM to offer a new deal to avert nursing strikes in England. The government insists its £1,400 rise for NHS workers this year is fair. But Unite and other health unions say the increase - an average rise of 4.8% - fails to reflect rising living costs, and needs to be increased. Health Secretary Stephen Barclay says he has held "constructive" talks with unions over pay for the next financial year, starting in April.
The government is pursuing a course of 'masterly inactivity' to wear the strikers down and at the same time give the inflation rate time to fall so that can be used as a bargaining ploy against the strikers. This course costs them the least money but ignores the fact that it causes the maximum disruption and indeed deaths. They are acting as though their only task as a government is to save the country money by getting all the services as cheaply as possible. They forget that their task is actually to try to ensure the safety and well being of as many of the population as possible and this means giving them efficient services and fair wages. At the moment they are failing miserably and showing no signs of changing course.
Instead they are trying to look busy discussing Liz Truss and her bid to re-enter main stream politics or, in the case of Sunak, appearing on third rate TV shows and answering puerile questions that have nothing to do with the problems we face at the moment.
For God's sake, please can someone get a grip!

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If Sunak thinks he can shift the blame on the nurses by building up a bigger waiting list he is sadly mistaken. I have missed a session with the Cardiology Consultant and just scraped home with a Psycho-the-rapist appointment. Do I blame the nurses for a situation manufacture by Sunak and Barclay? Not one bit. The rate of inflation is a total red herring. What counts is the size of the take home pay against the price of goods you have to buy. arguments like 'the nurses are only going to food banks so that they can afford a holiday in Spain' show the level of bigotry and sick thinking that goes on at some levels. Obviously our Tory government thinks that extreme inequality coupled with the lowest health care outcomes for those at the bottom is emulating America and making UK great again is total nonsense. Time to do what's right and pay proper wages close tax loopholes and if necessary raise taxes across the board.