Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[PanBiker]

On the face of it Pendle's plan is to carry on as we are but follow the recommendations. This isn't a plan its carry on and see what happens. Ostrich stuff.

I got exactly the same feeling when I watched David Whipp on the TV last night. He waffled for a couple of minutes but said nothing really that would lead me to believe anything has changed. Apart from sending a few council inspectors into shops it's maintain the status quo but try a bit harder. I get the message but some of us have been maintaining what has been suggested from day one.

[Tripps]

Watching Boris's latest announcement of relaxation of the lockdown 'rules' I''m totally confused now - nothing seems to be clear cut.There are 'get out clauses' for everything. Did he really say that employers can decide when it's safe to come back to work? Yes he did - just said it again. They did that in Lockdown Leicester. What could possibly go wrong?

I think Local Authorities can do local lockdowns now.

My abiding memory will be that Baroness Dido Harding is standing on Professor Van Tam's height enhancing box.

PS. Watched the Lords Committee questioning the scientist Sir Patrick Vallence and Prof Chris Whitty (both conspicuous by their absence during Boris's press conference) also with a Professor Phin. One point I noticed as that they said that infection data were available by postcode, but weren't published at that level. I think this was a complaint by the Leicester Mayor when they locked down..

I guess the social consequences of such disclosure are being avoided. Already it has been politicised, with people saying Conservative areas have been unlocked whilst Labour areas are still locked down. I guess they don't want to pinpoint any particular group more precisely.

[Whyperion]

Yes but the local news is featuring Blackburn with Darwen more than Pendle despite Nelson and Brierfield being the second highest in the country. Makes no sense to me.

Returning to this subject. Pendle have a new case coronavirus count of 74 per 100,000. but Pendle doesn't have a population of 100,000, the last estimate was 92,000, this makes the count roughly 10% lower = 67 cases. but then we are told its mainly in the Brierfield and Nelson areas.
Pendles population in round figures...
Brierfield = 10,000. Nelson = 29,000 . Colne = 19,000. Barnoldswick = 10,500. Barrowford = 6,000.
If we suppose that the bulk of the cases are Brierfield and Nelson and allocated a figure of 60 to them and then divided them in proportion to the population this would give a rate of 150 per 100,000.
Should we be concerned if we were to view figures as high as this? Perhaps not but it does demonstrate that figures without explanation become meaningless. Also I suspect that our local leaders haven't a clue what is going on irrespective of how you present the numbers. Mushroom management.

I am a bit confused, is this number of cases the number of new cases daily ? or the estimate of live cases at a given point in time.
w.r.t. asian populations, apart from living together they also work in family units too, I think the only breakout is the mosques ( Asians I think have tended to meet more together as lockdown loosened compared to the anglicans and similar), and Morrisons.

[plaques]

I am a bit confused, is this number of cases the number of new cases daily ?

Join the club. The numbers are taken each week, sometimes they rise sometimes they fall, this would suggest they are not cumulative. Because Brierfield and Nelson have been mentioned the assumption is that they are from the Asian community. They could be Zombies or pink elephants for all we know. Typical 'tell em nowt' and keep em confused reporting. They must all after Boris's job.

[Stanley]

Ken, I wasn't suggesting stand back and ignore the situation. I was making the general point that it was a factor but not mentioned.

[plaques]

Stanley I don't think anyone on OG is standing back in terms of taking interest in what's going on. We can't do anything more than work to the recommended guidelines. One of the current main problems as I see it is that when Boris recommends a particular unlock action the result is confusion followed by an army of ministers giving their own interpretation followed by even more confusion. At a local level if the numbers are known in fine detail why on earth aren't they passed down the chain of command so that councils can use the oft quoted laser accuracy to get on top of the problem. It may be that those in government have taken a political decision not to rock the boat by identifying a particular group. Its very nice of them to think this way or are they behaving like Trump with his apparent negative dislike for the Democratic controlled states? The whole business is beginning to have that nasty smell that the main thing is to protect their voters and to leave those at the bottom to suffer the consequences.

[Tripps]

At a local level if the numbers are known in fine detail why on earth aren't they passed down the chain of command

Public Health England have the data but choose not to release it with such a level of 'granularity'. We can only guess at the motivation behind that decision. It affected the current Leicester situation where the infection seems to be mainly in a particular part of the area, but it has all been locked down.

I found this Stakeholder engagement on the PHE website. I've only skimmed it but I cant find any suggestion that every one sticking to the rules about staying home and social distancing right from the start, etc would have been a good idea - regardless of your ethnicity.

PS. Yesterday's decision to allow Local Authorities to impose local lockdowns seems a bit silly if they don't have the level of infection detail down to postcode area.

i don't envy anyone who has to manage this current situation. Public health crisis with a thick overlayer of party politics.

[Tizer]

The whole business is beginning to have that nasty smell that the main thing is to protect their voters and to leave those at the bottom to suffer the consequences.

I think you're giving too much weight to party politics and not enough to simple incompetence!

[Wendyf]

This is a government website which shows positive cases in each local area for the week up to the 12th July, just pop your postcode in. How has Burnley escaped a rise in cases I wonder, sitting between Blackburn and Pendle?


https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewe ... yrQe3arfuk

[Tripps]

That's a good site - thanks. I still think, and the Professor implied it yesterday, there is a more detailed and precise view available which 'they' have chosen not to release. Perhaps the data will be acted upon if not actually released to the public if it became beneficial.

[Sue]

The official Public Health figures are always a week out of date. The figures are also different depending which official figures you read and who they include. There are upto date NHS figures that are current for the day before, but plans are based on the official figures for the week before so I gather . So the up todate figures the other night showed Rochdale was coming down from 28 to 27,the numbers on the news were 39 and a week old !

[Marilyn]

Here goes my third attempt at a post. The past two disappeared.

According to the “Gaurdian”, people presenting with active symptoms of Covid are not tested. ( seems absurd)...so stats reflect positive cases found, but not those turned away with active symptoms.

[Stanley]

Peter, I think Ken gives a good précis of my view and you know my thoughts on incompetence. Add arrogance in that constant decisions are made on 'what we should tell them' based on a very low estimate of our intelligence.
Public Health England was put in place and the old system abolished because it gave more central control and enabled the government to 'manage' the situation That's how storage and provision of PPE was taken from the NHS who were doing well and effectively outsourced to the US firm Moviado with the results we all saw. This and other problems were foreseen at the time and they were warned. That's only one example. Yes, it's a consequence of allowing politics to override practical matters but still left room for incompetence.
In the end the truth will out and the government knows this. Looking at other countries the truth is becoming evident far more quickly!
The bottom line is that less than 10% of the UK population has been infected and we have no vaccine. The virus is out there. If you have the luxury of being able to manage your own world stick with isolation, it seems to work.

[Whyperion]

Aside from Boris wishing the virus away by christmas (getting into a ww1 memory there), world-wide florida is interesting, large numbers of infections, yet the number of deaths - assuming reported in a valid manner, seem lower in proportion, maybe it is better testing and also there is no easily shown aged ajusted or reported for either other than narrative that it is younger people gathering that are spreading virus between themselves. I suppose it gives hope for humanity that this age group might survive through en masse

[plaques]

Wendy's link shows the Pendle area in segments of areas affected in quantity ranges. Whitewalls = 10 to 19, Nelson = 20 to 29, Brierfield = 10 to 19. Combining these numbers give ranges of 40 minimum, 77 maximum. That's quite a big spread to tell you what's going on week to week. No wonder people get confused.

I don't think we should concern ourselves too much about Florida. From what I remember about the place there are a lot of elderly retired people who have good insurance policies and can afford good medical care ie: fewer deaths. The climate is also conducive to outdoor living and greater degrees of separation.

[Marilyn]

I don’t know what is going on, but every time I try to post on this topic, I am wiped.

[Marilyn]

OK...so that one worked...let me try another.
Does it not bother you that people with active Covid symptoms are turned away from testing, and so are not included in numbers and stats?

[Wendyf]

Is that in the UK Maz? I can only find Guardian articles from March and they are referring to symptomic cases being refused tests in Australia and the US not here in the UK. Can you give us a link?

[Marilyn]

I will try, Wendy. See if I can take a screen shot or something.
The thing is...how can any Covid App have any function...if they are not testing people with positive symptoms.
( I am at the end of a long 24 hours, but will see what I can do to show the message I read every day)

[Marilyn]

Sorry, I can’t seem to be able to save the paragraph, though it says the same thing and was only updated 34 mins ago.
( it has been a very mentally challenging day and I am just “beyond” it at present. I was overdue a lie down in a darkened room a few hours ago.)

[Marilyn]

Sorry. Beyond me! I can’t seem to be able to save the paragraph, screen shot the paragraph or email the paragraph.
See how I go on the desk top tomorrow.
But it is there, and has been there day after day for weeks ( updated and reposted every day).

Time for a wine and put my feet up....( it has been a crazy intense 24 hours, and I am ready for the support of sofa cushions)

[Tizer]

Maz, in the UK anyone with symptoms can apply for a test to see if they have coronavirus. See this BBC explanation...
`Coronavirus: Am I eligible for a test?' LINK
The article starts...
`Anyone with symptoms can apply for a test to see if they have coronavirus. Getting tested - and then tracing people's contacts - is considered vital to enable health experts to contain local outbreaks. Tests are now available to all adults and most children in the UK with a fever, a new continuous cough or a loss of smell or taste. In England and Wales you can apply for a swab test for yourself, or for anyone in your household, if you or they have symptoms. In Northern Ireland and Scotland anyone over the age of five with symptoms can get tested. The tests are generally the same for children and adults..'.

In your post you referred to the “Gaurdian”. That's not the Guardian newspaper, it's a spoof twitter account here: Gaurdian

According to the “Gaurdian”, people presenting with active symptoms of Covid are not tested. ( seems absurd)...so stats reflect positive cases found, but not those turned away with active symptoms.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is a very good article and it deals with some of the things Sue and me explained early in the outbreak - mutation of the virus to give different types and adaptation by survival of the fittest so that one type might dominate but other mutations can be deleterious for the virus etc.
`Coronavirus: Are mutations making it more infectious?' LINK

[Marilyn]

Sorry Tiz. Beyond me tonight. I am simply too exhausted to deal with it. I shall attack with renewed vigour tomorrow. I can barely keep my eyes open, but am determined to finish a murder mystery on tv before I sink into bed. ( you know when you get to that point of brain shutting down?). That is me tonight.
It was the Guardian.

[Tizer]

Sleep well, Maz, and belated Happy Birthday wishes from me and Mrs Tiz!

[Tripps]

That's a good site - thanks. I still think, and the Professor implied it yesterday, there is a more detailed and precise view available which 'they' have chosen not to release. Perhaps the data will be acted upon if not actually released to the public if it became beneficial.

Looks like the Government have now agreed that granular detail would be helpful, especially to the Local Authorities who were given the task of future smaller scale lockdowns.
Sorry it's from the Mail for those who are allergic to it. A U turn if you like.
testing data