POLITICS CORNER

[plaques]

It started with "money no object" for "Flood relief". Note, not for flood prevention. Now they are even rolling back on this statement." Mr McLoughlin said: “I don’t think it’s a blank cheque." When they start reducing the number of victims of flooding to meaningless percentages you know they've turned their backs on the issue altogether.

[Stanley]

PMQ's. All right it could have been a debate, it was still a disgraceful riot!
"Money no object". He was desperate for some sound bites.... It will come back to bite him and of course the worst is yet to come, no respite in sight. They are already qualifying the promise.
Interesting that when Marl Carny was explaining why interest rates would not rise from 0.5% despite unemployment falling rapidly he said that "the recovery was neither balanced nor sustainable". This is what Vince Cable said but he was attacked for raining on Ossie's parade.
In Afghanistan President Karzai is releasing Taliban insurgents as fast as US forces capture them. This is the man who has already described the insurgents as 'his brothers'. He is probably right when he says that the prisons are 'Taliban manufacturing schools' but this is the basic problem and the reason why we should never have got involved. What a waste....
Plebgate has not gone away. See this LINK. I have no views on the word 'pleb', I wasn't there but Mitchell admits swearing at the police and that in itself was wrong. He was trying to pull rank on menials and this is a misuse of his position.

[Tizer]

I think that Stanley was right when he spoke of the emphasis shifting from Somerset to London on another topic, and I can imagine that the owners of some of these impressive dwellings will react with anger at what is happening to their manicured show pieces, someone will be to blame.

A week ago they were probably saying "Those people in the Somerset Levels who are flooded have only got themselves to blame, they shouldn't have bought a house there!"

[Stanley]

It's notable that most of the reporting is coming from the Thames Valley, nearer to the studio and a warm bed at home for the TV crews....? Jon Snow will be getting Trench Foot!
A rare example of inter party solidarity yesterday as Salmon is warned that independence means losing the English Pound.....
Labour win Wythenshawe by election. UKIP second, Tory third and LibDems lose deposit. (LINK)
One of the problems of getting old is that you have to put up with people commenting on current affairs and saying that 'It's the worst they have ever seen'. My problem is that I have sat on the Isle of Eigg and watched as winds of well over 120mph lifted the water out of the bay and threw it over the adjacent headland. The wind speed isn't a guess, the coastguard at Tyree told me that their anemometer only went up to 120mph and it was on the stop much of the time, 156mph recorded in the Cairngorms. Stood in hurricane winds on Dunnet Head.... Struggled through the snow in 1947 and commiserated with the people flooded out on the East coast in 1953. Then there was the smog in the 1950s... People and politicians have short memories and what is worse, don't take the trouble to look back at the history. The only instance of effective action being taken that I can remember is the Clean Air Acts of 1956 but it's worth remembering that this was a response to the Great Smog in London of 1952. No surprise to me that there was a gear change in government response to the present flooding when the Thames Valley got it in the neck. Ask yourself what will happen if London floods. Also ask yourself how much of the flooding in the Thames valley is down to the Thames Barrier being closed to stop the tide reaching London. Be sure that someone somewhere is asking this question now but is it being reported?
Ironic that the damaging winds in the North of Scotland have received very little coverage, largely due to the fact that they are used to it and have built to cope with conditions.

[Whyperion]

I guess I could check the tides and wander up to westminster to get photos of present thames heights , but I have the wife's cold and stuff to do indoors today and with rest of family tomorrow. Meanwhile noting that newsnight found a 2006? 2010 plan from the environment agency roughly covering the thames between Windsor and Staines with a price tag of around £238m, of which the govt were to have paid for about half , but plan shelved a couple of years ago. Are we right anyway to attempt to keep the likes of the severn and thames to their existing courses, when over time that man and his machines have not been around waterways have always changed course ( U bends to the likes of oxbow lakes as silts and wash change the layouts ). Additionally I see this morning that in the recent floods its around 5,100 houses affected , which does not seem an overall high number - the water may look spectactular but the damage is limited in many places ( that does exclude businesses /farm land of course ).

Shepperton and Chertsey and Staines are not all homes to millonaries, there are a number of council houses and historically cheap artisan /farm worker houses and static mobile home parks in the area- some from the 1930s pre planning permission days equivalent to the essex plotlanders. I also wonder if the M25 and T5 have increased the concreating of the area increasing significant run-off ( both built on former marshlands ).

[Thomo]

There was comment on the news two days ago that appealed to me, and was made by a struggling farmer in Somerset. "Is it not time to stop chucking aid at foreign countries, and spend it here" This I am in total agreement with. If it guaranteed that the money goes to they who need it most, then fine, this is all too often not the case, and as the saying goes, "Charity begins at home" When did we last see a foreign country offering to help us in a time of need?!!!

[Bruff]

Yes, the Daily Mail has a petition going on this and Mr Farage has given it his full support.

Unfortunately it is impossible to do this. The foreign aid budget is for foreign aid. You cannot move it (or 'vire' it, in the jargon) to another budget. For good reason I guess. If you could simply move money around the various public spending budgets on a whim, where would be the incentive for good management of this money? In addition, the aid budget reflects our International committments agreed in various forums and we can't renege on these (well I guess we can but it then becomes harder to lecture others on 'responsibility', I guess).

I would agree there are legitimate questions to be asked on our aid budget and its spend, and they certainly should be when our committments are up for review. But at the moment it is impossible to transfer the money. It's a bit odd that The Mail and Mr Farage seem unaware of this - certainly Mr Farage as he's got designs on elected office here (I know he's an MEP but he just pockets the money there and doesn't play any role in the democratic structures of the Parliament etc).

Finally, I would note you can call down EU money to help with these matters, and whilst clearly we have contributed to the budget this comes from at EU level, its totality reflects the contributions too of the other 20-odd countries. So you might say 'foreign' countries are helping right now (assuming the Government have made the request).

Richard Broughton

[Thomo]

Thank you Bruff. My problem is that I have always worked with the "Nuts and Bolts" of life, and have for the most part been able to circumvent external influences, such as you describe. I suppose that I am now to old to change, I still see things in Black and White and try to avoid the Grey areas.

[Whyperion]

I sit and wonder why there is a charge from the army etc to local authorities , someone said on telly the military had to be paid for , but diesel and sandbags aside is not the tax payer paying the same for a army private sat in barracks bulling their kit or out in the community doing something useful ? ( indeed for things like overseas flood etc relief the military cost is switched from the MOD budgets to the Foreign Aid one, I guess its probably factored in each year in the overall spend limits etc for each department that true cost of defence is ( say £1.1Bn , but we only put in £1bn as defence budget as the .1 is foreign aid / domestic assistance ) . Like in the summer storms though if you have a relatively tiny land mass sticking out into a wet sea at these latitudes its not really surprising that the odd sustained drenching from time to time occurs. Quite how our agriculture can Profitably survive long term with one wet year , one freezing , one dry (remember for taxation purposes farmers are one of the few groups that can average incomes over two years for calculating taxable profits) is another matter.

[Stanley]

Richard, one of the reasons why I managed the Ellenroad finances so successfully was because I had virement of all the funds. The Borough Treasurer used to tell me that this was the most valuable power you can have and he wished he was in my position. Funny thing was that when I applied for Treasury money nobody ever asked me to certify that the matching funds I was putting up were ring-fenced to that project. I think they assumed I was constrained like they were! The main thing was that the books always balanced and the Directors had more sense than to enquire too deeply when I presented them with more and more funding. I have to admit I sailed close to the wind sometimes but was always legal and solvent. Nobody will ever know the hours I spent on funding....... When I got us registered for VAT I drew about £40,000 from the initial registration because of historical expenditure. This altered the original grant calculations so I informed the funders but they all nodded the change through because like me they realised that retrospective calculation to allow for the saving on VAT was a circular calculation and no matter how many times you did it you never got a resolution. The Treasury had no policy for this or if they had it was simply to ignore it. It was all so complicated that I doubt if I could explain the problem now. Ellenroad was definitely a learning curve!
By the way, I enquired where the term 'virement' originated and was told it was Norman French used by the legal profession. An esoteric consequence of the Norman Conquest!

[Stanley]

It looks as though the amount of water falling out of the sky might lessen a bit. This will cool down the undoubted media hype about flooding and the caravan will move on. This is when the knotty question of what the difference is between flood relief, flood prevention and compensation will arise and Cameron's rash statement that 'money is no object' will come back and bite him. I note that the DoE announced the other day that the staff reductions were on hold for the duration of the floods but what will the cut off point be? I can't imagine that those employees expecting the chop are cheering! There are going to be consequences and I'm afraid that once again we will see the difference between knee-jerk promises and business as usual with public service cuts.....

[Stanley]

Inflation figures are expected to be down today. Dangerous sign, deflation in a stagnant economy. Couple this with Mark Carny's opinion that the recovery is neither balanced or sustainable and there is a dark cloud on the horizon for Ossie and Cameron.

[Whyperion]

Inflation falling, no bad thing, it was mostly driven by VAT increases , Energy Increases and Inflation+ price rise contracts on rail and so-on, and factors from outside the UK (Chinese labour rate rises - that has now brought some manufacturing back to UK ) that the BoE could not possibly hope to control. Still the figures don't fully report that things like food sold in pre-packs have gone up about 11% (for the average shopper the £1/for 1KG has in the popular stores gone to £1/ 900gr). Anyway its not deflation, its that the rate of increase is lower than last year's corresponding period's increase.

[Pluggy]

A bit pessimistic IMO Stanley, most indicators are saying the economy is picking up, if my business is anything to go by, it certainly is.

And that's against a background of the traditional computer market being in the doldrums. (Tablets taking the sales of Laptops and Microsoft's naff Windows 8 has a lot to do with it). Desktop sales (you remember those, big computers with proper screens, keyboards and mice) after years of decline are holding fast now. Lately the decline is tablets replacing laptops, Businesses upgrading their old XP systems to Windows 7 is keeping desktops going.

Other businesses whose computers I deal with are saying things are picking up for them too. I'm optimistic.

[Whyperion]

I think the slow down in the former relentless rise in fuel duty has given a little breathing space to some folk, I am sure G O would be willing to increase it if you want inflation to rise.

[hartley353]

This morning talking to the owner of the MOT station he reports things are ticking over, he reckons his plans to expand are now three years late, and doesn't see it happening any time soon. When I attended National tyre and Autocare later in the morning all four bays were lying idle,not a good sign. After the tyres were fitted I called at City electrical Factors normally this would mean a machine coffee, and a chat whilst I wait my turn in the queue,the shop was empty, again the same response we are ticking over.Later on in the day I called at W H Smiths, to spend a christmas gift card, There were only two of us in the store shopping. My last errand was at B&Q my guess there were maybe 25 other shoppers. Where is the upswing? Maybe one man bands are busy because they are cheap, I still think professional businesses are having a tough time.

[Whyperion]

Maybe because National, CEF and WHS are all normally a bit overpriced. Its also half-term week so some folk will be away.

While I think about it the re-introduction of standing charges on gas and electric has impacted low user/low income groups quite disproportionately.

[plaques]

I still think professional businesses are having a tough time

Join the club of "Recovery Deniers". All the small shops and most of the larger ones all appear to have more staff than customers. Although I must admit on the BBC news the other night I saw that a manufacturing firm had brought their business back to the UK. Pity that they only made leggo type toys. Perhaps Mr Cameron and the Bank of England are right in their recovery forecasts. It may be that the ordinary hardworking man (sic)as the MP's would say hasn't benefited from it YET. And probably never will do.

[Stanley]

That's the problem P. Did you see Robert Peston's programme on China last night? Debt rising at twice the rate of GDP and already at 200% of GDP.

[hartley353]

Maybe because National, CEF and WHS are all normally a bit overpriced. Its also half-term week so some folk will be away.

While I think about it the re-introduction of standing charges on gas and electric has impacted low user/low income groups quite disproportionately.

Before buying the tyres I did a web search, National had what I wanted and at a good price, the price was even better when I negotiated a 20% discount. CEF are very competitive, and as a trade buyer I get 60% discount. I use WHS because of a lifetime relationship, there is always a sale on with big discounts on books. There are not many shops left from my childhood.

[Tardis]

While I think about it the re-introduction of standing charges on gas and electric has impacted low user/low income groups quite disproportionately.

Indeed

[Stanley]

P, I've been thinking about 'recovery deniers'. I don't deny that a recovery of sorts is taking place, I am sceptical of the quality of the evidence, the interpretation placed on suspect statistics and the use of the 'good news' to rebut the criticisms that the Coalition is presiding over a drastic cut in both the standard of living and the quality of life of the poorest in the country. It's worth noting that inflation is still exceeding wage rises and this is exacerbated by the fact that the inflation rate of essentials, which are the main spend of the poor, is far higher than the official rate. There is also the fact that Ossie himself admits that there will be 60% more cuts over the next five years. My version of a real recovery is when work is plentiful and pays a living wage. At the moment 50% of those in work are in receipt of Income Credit which is a subsidy to lazy and inefficient employers.
The bottom line is that the workers only get an advance in conditions when the labour pool is smaller than the demand for its services.
Even the 'experts' are baffled by the structure of the employment market. Jobs are being created but wages and productivity are low which suggests there are serious flaws in the market that have yet to be identified.

[Whyperion]

Meanwhile, the Benefits Cap increase is 1% ( a megre amount on megre levels anyway) , so thats nearly a 1% cut straightaway. (Noted that generally across England no planned rises in Council Tax - but then you get the services you pay for ) Some employers reported as paying 3% increase in wages [admittedly after one or two years of no rises].

If the cuts in staffing numbers at the Environment Agency have been put on hold , does that mean they were all employed on Flood related matters?

[Tardis]

The Lancashire Police have already asked for 2%, LCC is asking for 1.97% (meeting now), Pendle is asking for a freeze (meeting tonight) and Barnoldswick Town Council has put their's up by 118%

[Stanley]

I haven't the faintest idea what that last post was about......
Have a look at this LINK for what sounds like a sensible plea from environmentalists who have written to the Daily Telegraph saying that much flood damage could have been avoided if proper measures had been taken beforehand.