CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Stanley]

Two things clicked together in my mind as I watched a very good programme about Icebergs on BBC2 last night (second part TX on Thursday). They gave the figures for the effect of ice loss in the Arctic on sea levels, the figure is accelerating and significant. This coincides with Hurricane Sandy in which the chief factor contributing to the damage was the storm/tidal surge which overcame the sea defences. It was 14 feet and of course exacerbated by the waves caused by the wind. Funny that nobody mentioned this in the acres of media coverage of the event. At the very least it's a factor. On top of this is the fact that a combination of extreme weather events coincided and made the storm worse. Of course events like this have happened right through geological time but the fact is that we seem to be coming out of a relatively quiet period in history during which humanity has flourished. Go figure!

[Whyperion]

We can adapt:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20126452

(dont think the 'new' plants will grow in the Barnoldswick area without polytunnels and a bit of extra heat )

[Stanley]

Mitt Romney quote: "No such thing as American warming, it's global warming". And this guy wants to be in charge!

[David Whipp]

At risk of the bleeding obvious...

Population growth alone will put immense pressure on societies (nations, tribes...) to compete for dwindling resources.

Where they can, people are aspiring to (and some achieving) the comfortable consumer lifestyle that we've taken for granted for the last century or so. Thus cranking up the strain further.

Add the additional desperation from shifting climate patterns...

Haven't a clue what defence 'our' tribe will have to deal with the mass migrations and conflicts. (I'd like to think that 'our' tribe is the whole of humanity, and I'd like to throw the rest of the eco-system in as well, but fear it'll inevitably be every person for themselves and a descent into the dark ages.)

Following the maxim, if you want to change the world, begin with yourself, I don't know what action I can take to effect such change.

Sorry I'm not very optimistic this morning!

[Tizer]

David, I sympathise with you and have the same feelings of impotence with regard to influencing attitudes to climate change. It's largely in the lap of the politicians because nations cannot act alone on changing the global climate, so I suppose the first thing we must do is find and elect the best politicians for the job, ones who are statesmen capable of operating on the world stage and attracting the confidence of other nations. Second, we've got to do our bit in convincing others of the need for action - one person baling out water from a sinking ship doesn't do much good but if all the passengers join in then we'll stay afloat. Britain no longer has an empire but we still have a lot of respect around the world, especially for our science and technology and we could lead by example if we put our minds to it.

[Stanley]

My defence is that I use as little water and energy as possible, deal with my own waste, make do and mend and recycle everything I can. In the end, even though they seem so insignificant, individual choices do make a difference. Imagine a world boycott on Pot Noodles..... The food processors make no money out of me.

[David Whipp]

On a personal level, my family tries to live as frugally as we can energy wise (though recent weeks have been an exception!).

But our (relatively modest) lifestyle still consumes stores of energy which have taken millions of years to build up. In no way does it approach sustainable.

If all the billions of people on our planet shared the same standard of living, our resources would fizzle out quicker than the fiercest short lived firework.

Living a stone-age existence will only be the choice of rare individuals in any population - though it may be the only 'choice' for survivors of famines to come?

The reaction of citizens across Europe to the economic austerity measures imposed by various governments are as nowt compared to what would happen if individuals and nations were expected to truly live within their means energy wise.

I doubt there will ever be a politician on the planet able to lead and sustain any such course. My guess is that it'll be some messianic figures leading remnants of humanity through the wastelands - if Earth's post-human civilisation wastelands are still habitable of course.

Part of me clings to the hope that our ingenuity will develop an energy source powerful enough not only to meet our energy needs, but also to undo the damage we've done to the carbon cycle in the few hundred years of humanity's industrial development.

Hey ho, best make the most of it.

[Tizer]

Part of me clings to the hope that our ingenuity will develop an energy source powerful enough not only to meet our energy needs, but also to undo the damage we've done to the carbon cycle in the few hundred years of humanity's industrial development. Hey ho, best make the most of it.

Better energy sources will come but whoever invents them will have to share them with the rest of the world or the inventions won't solve the problem. They'll need to follow the equivalent of `open source' computer software and be free to use by any country, any individual, no patent fees etc. As for undoing damage, a large part of the CO2 we currently produce will be removed naturally from the atmosphere in some tens of years if we cut down on emissions, but the remainder will hang around for 100s of years. It's not only radioactive chemicals that can last a long time and cause continuing trouble.

[Stanley]

I have always said that the eventual game-changer will be fusion. Not on the grounds of cost, we shall never have 'cheap energy' but it will be emission free. The good thing is that there is an enormous effort going into fusion and some small pilot plants are running now but efficiency and scale have to be addressed.

[Tizer]

We watched the first of those two `iceberg' TV programmes last night (recorded) and found it to be some of the best TV we've ever seen. Very daring people, getting so close to the gigantic calving bergs, and perhaps a bit reckless when you see them jumping in and out of a helicopter on the top of the glacier cliff without hooking onto safety cables! The ones who went down the `drain' were nearly down there for a thousand years, they only just got out in time. And the diver in the `blue lake' whose air pipe started to freeze up after he'd been down a while. What I found most spectacular was seeing a `calved off' giant iceberg from the below-water face of the glacier rising up out of the depths like a colossal monster! It al helps to remind us that Nature is in charge, not us.

[Stanley]

Glad you saw it Tiz. The second prog is just as good. Loved the way they proved that the pressure to break off came because of the warm surface layer unbalancing the edge of the berg and it's actually buoyancy of the submerged ice that causes the fracture. Watch out for polar bears in the second programme.

[Stanley]

A gas tanker is to sail from Norway to Japan by the northerly route through the Arctic. If successful, this is the first of many such trips because Japan is now a major importer of gas after shutting nuclear generation down.

[Tizer]

Some of our UK nuclear power projects are jeopardised by the spin-off from the Fukushima issue. Some companies that had planned to build the power stations are losing business and reconsidering new projects.

[Stanley]

If they throw enough money at the contractors they'll have a change of heart....
LINK This caught my attention. Latest survey of all satellite readings confirms net reduction in polar ice sheets and says that the process is accelerating.

[Tizer]

This caught my attention. Latest survey of all satellite readings confirms net reduction in polar ice sheets and says that the process is accelerating.

But there are still people who don't believe it's happening. Mitt Romney says it's a hoax.

[Stanley]

The main problem with the flat-earthers is that they confuse climate change with global warming and can't take a clear view of unassailable evidence about the loss of the polar ice caps and the rise in sea levels which has started already. Did I see a figure of a 2" rise over the last fifty years? Just looked it up and it's 2" since 1992. See this LINK for a persuasive article on it.

[Tizer]

It would be interesting to know if the people who deny that fracking is safe are the same people who deny that climate change is happening, or at least who deny that we play a part in it's cause. They all seem to be willing to believe claims made without sound evidence and enjoy propagating the myths.

[Stanley]

I'm reminded of a quotation I have on the cupboard door in the kitchen. "The man who never changes his opinion is like stagnant water and breeds reptiles in his mind" (Blake). I think that covers it....

[Tizer]

The Doha, Qatar, climate talks end today and this weekend could see a tipping point that will have a major effect on the future for us all. To quote Roger Harrabin, the BBC's Environment Analyst who is in Doha:
"There has been a historic shift in the UN climate talks in Qatar, with the prospect of rich nations having to compensate poor nations for losses due to climate change. The US has fiercely opposed the measure - it says the cost could be unlimited. But after angry tussles throughout the night the principle of Loss and Damage is now in the final negotiating text."
This is a momentous occasion. The USA stands alone in refusing to accept its responsibility for the effects of climate change. Note that it's not China or Russia but the United States of America that may this weekend choose to go its own way, to isolate itself from the rest of the world. On the other hand, if it sees the light and agrees to compensation then we can expect much trouble within the US. Listen for the news today...
More details here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20650534

[Stanley]

Have a look at this LINK to see what Professor Beddington has said on his retirement. He says that it is an incontrovertible fact that our climate is changing due to our modification of the atmosphere. He says it is time to stop simplistic arguments about 'Global Warming' and concentrate on the fact that change is under way and can only get worse.

[hartley353]

What a load of Tosh. Had this man lived in the past he would probably have blamed the first ice age on gaseous emissions from herbivores. The only certainty after death and taxes is that scientists will never agree, and so shouldn't be believed.

[Tizer]

It's interesting to look back in the archive of the old OG site and see that Stanley started his Climate Change topic in December 2007 and that ran until the change to the new site in January 2012. For those who are interested, here is the link to the first page and you can navigate from there to the subsequent pages:
http://archive.oneguyfrombarlick.co.uk/ ... cae65.html
The topic continued on the new site in this thread, starting with this page:
http://oneguyfrombarlick.co.uk/viewtopi ... ate+change
Several times on those threads I've said that the extreme and unpredictable weather that we are seeing in recent years is regarded as almost certainly due to the turbulence caused by a change of climate, and that change is almost certainly due to human activity. I'm glad that John Bedddington has been willing to put his head above the parapet and say this too. There has been too much hedging and too much excessive caution and it's time to be frank about the present as well as the future. Asked by John Humphrys on the Today programme if reduction of our CO2 output was the only practical way to counter climate change, Beddington agreed but pointed to carbon capture as the only other feasible way. I'm concerned about going down that route until we have a way of utilising the captured carbon rather than storing it, otherwise we will end up with something similar to the problems of storing radioactive waste (or even worse). At least radioactive waste breaks down eventually to (relatively) harmless lead but CO2 will remain forever and a sudden release of a vast stored quantity of CO2 from the ocean bed could be catastrophic.

As for Hartley's comments immediately above, they are insulting and not worth responding too.

[hartley353]

When posting I do not seek to insult or change the belief of others, only to offer balance, but scientists spouting rubbish touch a raw nerve, if there was the remotest possibility that what they say about climate change is the truth. There is absolutely nothing that can be done about it, and all we should do is consider it as evolution.
No answer required.

[PanBiker]

What a load of Tosh. Had this man lived in the past he would probably have blamed the first ice age on gaseous emissions from herbivores. The only certainty after death and taxes is that scientists will never agree, and so shouldn't be believed.

Not heard such a Luddite attitude for a long while, yet in another thread you expound the virtue of a mobile phone contract for emergency purposes. The only reason you have this choice is through the application of science.

Take your head out of the sand and look at the facts.

[Bruff]

Science progresses through the falsification of hypotheses and supporting evidence. As Einstein said, no amount of experimentation will prove me right, but just the one experiment will prove me wrong. I guess this might give the impression of scientists not agreeing with each other, but it is in reality simply the rightful application of the scientific method and rigour to any problem. It's surely not a reason for concluding you shouldn't believe anything a scientist says. Is it?

In the court of scientific opinion, what one might believe about something is neither here nor there. One cannot wish away the evidence as it builds through hypothesis, experiment, validation and consensus. As Feyman said, mother nature cannot be fooled. And at the moment, mother nature is struggling under the weight of a well-established variable very much in our gift to control. All other variables are accounted for in the models.

Richard Broughton