OneGuyFromBarlick

I saw that news programme as well Ian and was impressed. So easy and does it really matter if it is not 100% accurate. It will have some virtue and if it only caught one early infection that could be worth a life or two.
The Science in Action programme on World Service was good again this morning. (And included some useful information about black holes as well as Covid.)
Listening to You and Yours and hearing the stories about people being refused a flu jab because supplies of the kits have run out. Those of you who, like me, made sure we got it early, have been proved right. I told my doctor Hassan what I had done when he called and he said that he was glad, all that mattered was that I had been vaccinated with no ill effects.

Later...News that 'Lancashire' is to be included in Tier 3. My question is, is that Lancashire (administrative) in which case Barlick is now tier 3, or does the fact that we are outside Lancashire (shire boundary) and in Yorkshire. I think I can guess what the answer will be....

Same lie Stanley, for administrative purposes.....

Just listened to Mat Hancock saying that now's the time to work together to get the virus under control. But not two months ago it was under control so much so that one by one restrictions were lifted and Boris Johnson was quite adamant that workers should get back to their city offices and in effect bring the cities back to life and get the economy going. So here we are back on our heads with another lockdown without a murmur of what went wrong with plan A only some vague reference to scapegoating young people who they then corralled up in halls of residence to prove their point. Following Hancock's new plan B which will have the same outcome as plan A (failed) but successfully turning the Northern Powerhouse into the Northern Poorhouse the cry will be 'get back to your offices... forget covid-19 and concentrate on getting yourselves out of the Get Brexit Done mess that YOU voted for.
Not me gov. never was, never will be.

With impeccable timing Covid has hit the family again. This time we think that It's my grand-daughter Jess and her husband Mo. Susan knows about these things and informs me that as grandmother she takes Kahara to look after him and that officially we now have a 'bubble' of her, her Mick, Kahara and me. I qualify for inclusion because I am in her care. She and Mick are tested weekly as part of their jobs as carers. I shall be being even more careful because regardless of the official policies, there is little doubt that the dreaded 'second spike' is under way.
My advice is to be even more careful and don't neglect any of your hygiene precautions. Strict isolation is even more important.

Oh dear, not good news Stanley.
I hope all will be well for them.

Nothing more to add really, I hope they have a speedy recovery Stanley.

Confusion reigns, Lancashire has agreed to tier 3 with local variations. Some of these variations include financial support to councils which haven't yet been detailed. The general rules can be found here.Pendle Tier 3 The main features are listen below but there are numerous guide lines and recommendations as part of this package. Also a number of links to take you to other more distant rules.

New rules from Saturday 17 October
You are not allowed to meet socially with anyone - unless you live with them or they are part of your support bubble - in any indoor setting or private garden or at most outdoor hospitality venues such as pub gardens and outdoor ticketed events
You can meet in parks, outdoor sports venues, beaches, countryside or forests, as long as you are not in a group of more than six
Pubs and bars must close unless they are serving substantial meals and alcohol can only be served as part of a meal
People are advised not to travel into or out of Tier 3 areas, other than for work, education, or because of caring responsibilities, or to travel through as part of a longer journey
People from Tier 3 areas are being asked to avoid staying overnight in another part of the UK
People from outside Tier 3 areas are being asked to avoid staying overnight in very high alert areas.

And from midnight on Monday 19 October:
All licensed clubs, casinos, bingo halls, bookmakers, betting shops, adult gaming centres and soft play areas must close
Car boot sales are prohibited
Universities have to move to distance learning where possible

Stanley, have Jess and Mo been confirmed as infected by a covid test or is it an assumption based on symptoms? Whatever, I hope they're OK.

Ian, this screenshot from the front page of today's Times relates to your first question about saliva tests for kids going into school...

I have a note on my appointment for my MRI at LGI to ring before I make the journey to ensure the scanner is available. I think I will have to ask the question also as to whether they will still want me. Travel for medical appointments is still allowed as far as I am aware. I will take advice from the medics themselves though, my journey will involve car, train and bus if I get to go.

I think I hear on the NW news last night that part of the agreed package for Lancashire included a trial of saliva sampling for Covid.

PanBiker wrote: ↑16 Oct 2020, 10:29 I knew you would be able to expand on my question Peter and thanks. I will have a look at the link. Now on the pin prick antibody test. Again much simpler and would that not show how many people had already had the virus if they were carrying the right antibodies? Is that what the Imperial College survey is trying to assess?

The Imperial College scientists have been running trials on a large number of different rapid antibody tests like those to which you refer. This IC press release describes the work in progress...
`Biggest study on antibody finger-prick tests identifies promising kits' LINK
Note particularly this: `Based on how easy it was to use, high specificity (98.6%), moderate sensitivity (84%), and availability for testing at scale, the Fortress test was selected for use in nation-wide surveillance studies and the first results are available here. Further evaluation of antibody testing kits is ongoing and new tests are being assessed as they become available. The researchers are also comparing performance to other potential home testing methods, including saliva samples and dried blood spots on paper.'

As well as proving the tests are actually useful and reliable we have to be able to manufacture them on a vast scale. In somewhere like China that's easy - here in the UK we no longer have tens of thousands of medium-sized manufacturing companies that could switch to making the kits at the drop of a hat. Perhaps it's something our government needs to think about before the next crisis hits us!

BBC showing now a queue round the block in China for a vaccination against the virus. 'Not a trial - just turn up, pay the money and get vaccinated'. No high risk groups first, if you're in funds and prepared to chance it then roll up. Sounds more like USA than China.

Stanley wrote: ↑17 Oct 2020, 01:44 we now have a 'bubble' of her, her Mick, Kahara and me

Not my business - but in your position, and except for an emergency, that group would not be my first choice of a 'support bubble'. Two people who despite having had the infection ( second infection immunity is still an unknown quantity), both still work in high risk establishments, and a child whose parents were both recently infected. I base my caution on the experience of getting Norovirus from a care worker who visited the house for about 15 minutes, and had no contact with me at all.

I wish your relatives well - they are an age that does well so should soon be back to land.

Just found out my nephew has tested positive for Covid, he is at Salford University and quarantined there.

If he's anything like you he'll pose a serious challenge for the virus!

Tripps, catching your care worker's norovirus is an example of how these viruses get passed on by indirect contact. It worries me that the government keeps reminding us about masks and distancing but has gone quiet on contact transmission. If you handle (with bare hands) something that a person infected with virus has similarly handled recently it's likely you'll get a dose. Whether it's an infective dose depends on how long after, how much virus was transmitted and whether or not your hands transfer it to your mouth, nose or eyes.

Tizer wrote: ↑17 Oct 2020, 15:07 If he's anything like you he'll pose a serious challenge for the virus!

He is Sally's sisters lad.

I agree with Tripps. Please reconsider your support bubble, Stanley. At least keep any contact at all to dire emergencies with every precaution taken. Avoid them for the next fortnight at least.

I looked on our Coronavirus Hotspot Map this morning. It is updated every single day at 4.30 pm. We currently have 9 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in my area.
( we have a local population of 15,500 people, but this easily trebles during holidays and long weekends. We have just been through two weeks of school holidays, with Summer holidays beginning in December)

Thanks for the concern. The Covid test on Mo and Jess was negative. They have a virus but not Covid. Probably from Kahara and nursery. I'm quite happy with my support bubble. Contact is very infrequent and careful. In view of my isolation regime I am happy with the odds. Nothing is perfectly safe and secure!

Well I am happier after rechecking my map info. It wasn’t until I clicked on various other areas that I noticed in some of them, a box popped up with numbers of ACTIVE cases in addition to CONFIRMED cases. So I went back and had another look at my area. Those nine cases must be total ( historic) cases. Phew. There are no active cases ( but they could have put the box in with zero in it! )

A re-cap on the Covid-19 situation.
Back in March it was known that the only way to stop the spread of covid was to separate the people and stop the person to person transmission. The country went into total lockdown. In the absence of a vaccine the problem was how the country should be opened up. Experts agreed that just releasing people back to the mercies of the virus would create a second wave just as dangerous as the first one. It was agreed that a robust track and trace system must be in place before the release of people. This system should be able to identify those who had contracted covid and also anyone who had come into contact with them. The second part being more important so to stop the spread by people who had the virus but showed no symptoms. This would require a reliable testing system that could respond to the expected surge in cases. Further down the line it would require checks on those told to isolate that they were actually doing what they had been told. In other words the whole unlocking relied totally on a track and trace, testing and follow up to prevent a second wave.
Back to reality and what did we get? A track and trace that collapsed even before it opened up. A testing system that could hardly cope with those in hospital never mind nursing homes and the general public. A Serco outsourcing system with a contact record of 64% and did nothing to follow up those supposedly in isolation. Local councils quickly realized that a more intensive system was require but received little encouragement or financial backing to put a full system in place. Now we are seeing Andy Burnham being pilloried for holding out for a more sympathetic lockdown and better terms for support action. If it was a case of Mat Hancock V Andy Burnham I think it would be a walk over for Burnham.

A good summary, Plaques. We could add that the ministers and the scientists have gradually drifted apart which doesn't inspire confidence from the public.

At least it's not as bad here as in the US. They have about 8 times more covid infected people than we do on a per thousand head basis (8 million total). It was worst to begin with in the north-east US, then the southern states and California but now it's rising fast in the less populated mid-west. One way or another it will be a big influence on the US election result.

Not making light of the situation but this has been 'doing the rounds' on social media. 'Have you noticed that most disaster movies start with officials ignoring the advice of scientists'.

Stanley wrote: ↑18 Oct 2020, 01:37 Thanks for the concern. The Covid test on Mo and Jess was negative. They have a virus but not Covid. Probably from Kahara and nursery. I'm quite happy with my support bubble. Contact is very infrequent and careful. In view of my isolation regime I am happy with the odds. Nothing is perfectly safe and secure!

Thats good newsStanley, a bit like our youngest grand daughter two weeks ago

Marilyn wrote: ↑18 Oct 2020, 00:41 I agree with Tripps. Please reconsider your support bubble, Stanley. At least keep any contact at all to dire emergencies with every precaution taken. Avoid them for the next fortnight at least.

I looked on our Coronavirus Hotspot Map this morning. It is updated every single day at 4.30 pm. We currently have 9 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in my area.
( we have a local population of 15,500 people, but this easily trebles during holidays and long weekends. We have just been through two weeks of school holidays, with Summer holidays beginning in December)

Until the students went back to uni we were 0-2 cases in our area. Many or our local student numbers travel daily to university in Manchester and Salford, 4 universities in total I think and then we get a numbers explosion. These students mainly travel on public transport such as train and tram daily. It was bound to happen

I saw a figure of about 20,000 students now affected but I'm not sure if that's infected or just locked down.

Tizer wrote: ↑18 Oct 2020, 15:05 I saw a figure of about 20,000 students now affected but I'm not sure if that's infected or just locked down.

This was a week ago


https://inews.co.uk/news/education/coronavirus-latest- -infected-cases-nottingham-manchester-northumbria-newcastle-711173