POLITICS CORNER

[Bruff]

Another day and another spectacularly crass intervention from the current occupant No 10. It's difficult to know where to start with this one but perhaps we can begin by giving thanks for it not resulting in another telling-off from a judge mid-trial. It would be nice too, to give thanks for it not being another example of his casual misogyny but sadly no - the Queen is not a cat, she's a woman, and therefore doesn't routinely 'purr'.

I bet all those who voted 'no', or decided to at the last minute, perhaps indeed some of the 'wavering yes', are chuffed they're stuck with this character and all he represents. I would have thought it bad enough the first thing he decided on the morning after the night before was that what had just gone on in Scotland was actually all about England. On which, I am unimpressed to put it mildly, with the suggestion (but what actually seems like a decision?) that some Tories under William Hague will knock out a few random thoughts on 'constitutional matters' in a quiet moment. Or to translate the approach: 'we'll do the talking; you lot will do the listening..'.

A constituional can of worms has been well and truly opened and there are extremely complex issues to be worked through, no matter how pithy or attractive the slogans ('English votes on English issues'), and absolutely everyone needs to be engaged. I fully expect a plausible loudmouth like Farage to offer simplistic solutions and you can bump into one of them any night of the week propping up any convenient bar; I expect better from a supposedly serious politician.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Dead right Richard.... Biggest can of worms I have ever seen and the worst thing is that I don't believe the politicians have realised just how big it is!
I see we are recalling parliament and will no doubt be participating in air strikes in Iraq at least for the moment. Funnily enough I agree with what Cameron said about not being paralysed by 'the mistakes of the past'. In that at least he is right but no troops on the ground thank you. get the interested Arabic States to do their own dirty work! IS needs stopping, no doubt about that and a lasting solution needs to come from inside Islam.

[Stanley]

As expected, a massive vote in favour of action in Iraq but the numbers don't tell the whole story because many who voted in favour also flagged up the problem of extending into Syria. 6 jets and a possible submarine in the gulf carrying Cruise missiles isn't a massive contribution but our old mate Dennis Skinner voiced what was on all their minds, How long are we to be in there and when does 'mission creep' kick in. Quite.....

[Stanley]

See THIS for a Guardian report on the defection of Reckless to UKIP and the resignation of Newmark after being stung by a tabloid trap into sending 'explicit pictures' to a reporter. Leaving aside the vituperation being heaped on Reckless and the sleaze associated with Newmark, this is not the finest way to start the Tory conference in Birmingham. Complete contrast to the Labour conference where delegates were bored to death but I doubt if the buzz that will result in Birmingham is what David Cameron wants. One has to get the feeling that Cameron has no control over his party whatsoever. It's all very well making the set piece speeches spouting platitudes (and lies) but a party leader's prime task is to maintain party discipline. On the evidence, he has totally failed. The question starts to become, who will lead the Tories into the 2015 election?

[Tizer]

Did you hear the spoof on the BH programme of Cameron apologising to the Queen?
Cameron prattles on, one of the royal dogs starts barking at him...
Queen: "Shut up!"
Cameron: It's alright, mam - I don't mind the dogs."
Queen: "I'm not talking to the dogs, Prime Minister."

[Stanley]

Sounds about right. Brenda had a bad week with Cameron shooting his mouth off and one of her horses being doped...
After being reasonably civilised about Reckless and Newmark Grant Shapps went into attack mode when he opened the conference at Birmingham yesterday. Reckless was slammed for lying and treacherous behaviour. Immigration and Europe are once again top of the Tory agenda. One can't help thinking that Farage must be delighted, he is running the Tories policy now. That is really worrying!
Looking at IS and the growing reaction to them I can't help reflecting that when the US disbanded the police and the army it was a terrible mistake.....
President Obama admitted yesterday that failure to assess the size of the IS threat was an intelligence mistake. Abolishing the army and plice was a similar intelligence cock-up as they assessed them as dangerous to the new regime.

[Stanley]

We now have a clear idea of the Tory view of the way ahead if they get into power and if you aren't already wealthy it is a daunting prospect. At least another ten years of gradual erosion of disposable incomes for probably 75% of the population. If Cameron is to be believed, and we have to remember that he is involved in a struggle with his right wing over Europe, he is swinging in favour of a no vote in any referendum if he can't get clear improvements in the terms of our membership. He says this is for the good of the country but I don't buy it, he is defending his position in the party and when it comes to the point he will not get off the fence. We are promised seven day a week access to our GPs but as he said, the responsibility for this has been placed firmly with the doctors themselves, I wonder what will have to be cut to pay for it in a cash poor NHS. When politicians are in election mode you need to take a pinch of salt with everything they announce.

[Bruff]

''....seven day a week access to our GPs...''

As I understand it, the 'our' there refers to the nation's GPs, not one's own GP (albeit that we will be guaranteed our 'own' GP) This is an important distinction. The pledge is that we will have access to a GP 7 days a week. Which I do now actually - Mon-Fri at the practice; weekends via an out-of-hours service, or a walk-in centre at the local hospital or indeed one of the others around Merseyside. But I may very well be one of the fortunate ones.

But if the intention is for current GP practices to be open 7 days a week, we would I would have thought, need many more GPs. First, because it would make a mockery of the pledge if one limited weekday opening to spread the load of these additional weekend hours (knocking on 30% more contact time) among the current cadre. But second, even if we attempted to deliver far more with the same, huge numbers of GPs would I wager simply walk away. So on both scenarios, the GP cadre needs increasing markedly. And numbers going into GP training are down 15% this year.

So I'm not sure about the robustness of the pledge, or what problem it's trying to solve, or whether a problem even exists.

Edit: I might just note that some of the same considerations apply to the Opposition's promise of a GP appointment within 48 hours for all. I am not convinced the best way to run a publically-funded health service is via a focus on what in effect amounts to personal convenience.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Whichever way you look at the 'GP promise' Richard, it doesn't stack up. Is this a promise or one of the dreaded 'aspirations'?
I started listening to Cameron on the 6PM BBC news but had to turn it off in disgust. Asked about Europe and the fact that the new cuts will mean a loss in income for '7 million working families' (Is this 7 million people or families?) he ducked both questions repeatedly. I can see nothing in the statements coming out of the Tory Conference that gives me any hope for the future. Apart from anything else, the 'economic miracle' is founded on debt and austerity and it seems to me we are manufacturing another crash a bit further down the road. The announcements so far are for Tory core vote consumption. Perhaps he is going to use the NHS to reassure the electorate that the Tories aren't the Nasty Party.
The other announcement by Theresa May about new controls to attack radical preaching look dangerous to me. Who decides what organisations are unacceptable? Far right political movements? Environmental activists? Save the whales? Just imagine how useful this could be for repressing almost anything and all on the Home Secretary's say so. A very bad idea that strikes at long held freedoms to differ and say what you think.

[Tripps]

If a politician calls for tea - count your spoons before they leave.

Cameron just promise tax cuts for all, if he is elected, in his speech. Within minutes Lord Danny Finkelstein popped up, and helpfully added that of course this will only apply when the deficit is eliminated. I didn't hear that mentioned. . Note also that there is no mention of when.

Vipers - the lot of them.

[Tizer]

We keep being told how well the UK is doing but I think the reality has now been well and truly revealed. When the likes of Tesco and Sainsbury's are going belly up you know we're in trouble. Oh, and just to make matters worse, be sure to keep checking the banknotes in your wallet or purse. De La Rue who print banknotes for us and for many other countries are also in deep do-do. In 2010 they got up to mischief with the security paper they were supposed to be using and lost one of the biggest contracts in the world - printing notes for the Reserve Bank of India. Now they've failed to make the grade with polymer for the proposed new UK plastic notes. They're also suffering from strong competition from the state printers in various foreign countries...among which is the Russian state printer. So you know what's coming next - your banknotes will be printed in Russia (probably with a picture of Putin embossed on them, and impregnated with polonium).

[Stanley]

As predicted, Cameron hit the panic button yesterday on the NHS. I heard a figure of 30 million people as being affected by the new benefit cuts, this leaves aside the ones suffering the wider effects of wages not keeping up with inflation. Tax cuts are no good to the people in the worst trouble, they don't pay tax anyway and the cuts are all dependent on the budget being in balance. Pie in the sky! This conference was all about raising the morale of the party and the core vote, assuming that the lot of the poor will improve as the 'adjustments' take hold is the old 'trickle down' theory of economics. Long refuted by all serious economists. Noticeable that UKIP is the elephant in the room. As I have been shouting for years, 'trickle up' works better. Give the poor more spending power, they use the money straight away and consume and this is the basis of 85% of the economy.
I note that there is some strong criticism coming out of her own party for Theresa's new ideas for controlling how people think.
The LibDem conference is next. All Clegg can do is tell everyone that the Coalition would have been much worse without them, the Liberals are a busted flush. Imagine the reaction if he ended his closing speech by telling the party to go home and prepare for government.
The bottom line is that the next GE is a straight fight between Labour and the Tories with Farage and UKIP as the joker in the pack. UKIP will be crucial to the result but there is no certainty about the scale of their intervention. The pollsters will have a field day but I foresee the most uncertain and perhaps surprising election for years. What we need to see now is some serious contention from Labour but I have no confidence in them or their leader. Milliband is not leader material, he has no presence.

[Stanley]

I heard a remarkable statistic this morning in the report of Cameron 'visiting the troops'. Even allowing for inflation, the amount of money spent on Afghanistan far exceeds the cost of the Marshall Plan after the war.

[Bruff]

I note proposals from the Conservative Party to ignore the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR). Quite a few things. First, it's worth noting that the ECHR is absolutely nothing at all, nothing at all, to do with the EU or the Commission so if anyone tries to imply it is, or links the things, you know they don't know what they are talking about and so can be safely ignored.

Second, I'm trying to think of another case where a supposedly serious political party has made a serious public commitment to in effect ignore the law. That is, be quite open with the electorate that when it comes to the courts and the law they will decide what they will comply with and what they will not. That's not usually how things work.

Third, it is not clear in any replacement what rights in a British Bill of Rights will be any different to our current Human Rights, not least as we British are just as 'human' as everyone else (unless we think we are somehow different at a fundamental level). I know when pressed, the PM has waffled on about 'respect for the law' (as though you know, the Finns don't), in response to which may I refer you Para 2 above. As well as 'respect for institutions', which probably my cynicism interprets as 'know your place'.

Fourth, the votes for prisoners thing that's generally wheeled out is really very simply. The ECHR simply said that a blanket ban was in breach. They said there was nothing at all to stop a judge taking away the right to vote if he or she so judges. So easy only the irredeemably thick would fail to understand it. Unfortunately, we have Mr Grayling at the helm.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard a timely explanation and an example of how woolly thinking or plain ignorance can obscure the truth. See THIS for a report on the matter of human rights on the BBC this morning. Dominic Grieves, former Attorney General says that Grayling has got it completely wrong and in affect published a lie.
If you want a perfect example of electioneering red in tooth and claw have a look at THIS for Clegg's reply to the 'source' in the Home Office describing him as a w****r in support of the attack made on him. This campaign is getting dirty right from the start.
Clacton by-election in six days. Now that could be interesting!

[Bruff]

Ahhh Clacton. Scene of the recent removal by the Council following 'complaints' of a Banksy artwork, satirising the 'immigration' debate through a group of pigeons wielding various placards exhorting an exotic migratory swallow-type bird to 'go home'.

Perhaps realising they'd destroyed artwork worth a probable a six-figure sum, the Council noted they would welcome another Banksy if it were more appropriate, guardians it appears they now are of what passes for acceptable art...........

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I heard a council official on R4 yesterday admitting that the removal of the graffiti had been a mistake. It was reported as racist in the usual way and the team went straight out to remove it following their standing instructions. There must have been no art lovers or even intelligent critics on the team! For some reason, nobody in authority saw the joke.
Mr Newman got a dishonourable mention on HIGNY last night. Very funny programme as Peter Bone MP was on as well, the man who paid a worker 87p an hour while employing his wife in the constituency work on £45,000 per annum. (He says that was the rate set by the government scheme the worker was employed under) What struck me was the fact that he agreed to appear on the programme when he knew he would be under attack. The exposure of being on national TV must be worth enough to justify putting up with the ridicule.

[David Whipp]

Wasn't it us Brits who drew up the terms of the European Human Rights? After the Second World War? Something to do with protecting individuals against dictatorships?

[Stanley]

Quite right David. Problem is that there are some people in politics who are afraid of enshrining 'rights' for the common people in law. That's the reason why we have never had a written constitution. It would erode the 'traditional' power of the wealthy establishment to use the power of money and influence to the full. In theory an independent judiciary is supposed to be the ultimate protection against arbitrary power but we are seeing that eroded now with the attacks on Legal Aid and trial held in camera or without a jury. Show me a political party that will fight for a Bill of Rights.....
That was why I always liked Clause Four of the Labour constitution. That horrible man Blair ditched it because it got in the way of getting the middle class vote. (By the way, any news on Chilcot? Not publishing it is another attack on freedom.)

[Stanley]

Fascinating watching the LibDems turning on the Tories after four years in coalition. Cable telling us what we already knew, that they want to roll back the welfare state. Interesting also to reflect that 'we aren't into setting red line policies' is another way of saying they want maximum freedom in any negotiations about a future partnership. They have a hard row to hoe, good principles but a limited future.
If you want an example of how corrupt politics is today go to page 31 in Private Eye and read the in depth account of Vanguard Health Services who sell mobile services to the NHS to address local hot spots in the waiting list. It was Vanguard that botched the eye operations at Musgrove Park in Taunton and had to be summarily sacked. Vanguard is part of MMI Venture Capital and run the operation at arm's length using very big loans and high interest rates to ensure the best tax position for themselves and take the £1.6million profit Vanguard made in the last year so Vanguard pay no Corporation Tax. All this is bad enough but Eye dug further. The major shareholder in MMI is Roy Brooks who just happens to be a major Tory Party donor (£276,000 since 2008). Brooks is also a director of Iain Duncan Smith's brain child, The Centre for Social Justice, his latest donation is £50,000. Am I alone in thinking that this close connection might have a bearing on who gets the contracts?
PE is full of these connections and it makes sad reading every fortnight.

[Stanley]

Mission creep is alive and well against IS. A UN spokesman says that we have to do something now and what he is talking about is boots on the ground. I see Canada has joined in the air strikes. Any bets how long before we see troops in action as well?
I'm fed up with all the political parties wrapping themselves in the NHS flag and spouting aspirations and platitudes. Meanwhile PFI and creeping privatisation stealthily erode the concept of non-profit making medicine. The Transatlantic free trade agreement being negotiated at the moment opens the door wide to US health companies. But Vince Cable says it is a scare story so that's all right......
Thursday looms, the general opinion is that Carswell will win the seat at Clacton for UKIP. This will concentrate minds wonderfully especially in the Tory Party....

[Stanley]

All eyes on Clacton today......

[Stanley]

So, UKIP gain Clacton but just miss against the Labour candidate at Heywood and Middleton. (LINK). Actually, the Heywood result is the most spectacular. Carswell in Clacton was almost a shoe-in but for the UKIP candidate to almost reach the Labour total is probably more significant. They are taking votes off all parties. Rochester by-election will be a better test perhaps but the real acid test of course will be the General Election next year. On the evidence the Tories have more to lose than any of the other parties.
In the long term, the most important political debate at the moment, small but growing, is the move in England for more local control triggered by the Scottish referendum debate and the devolution promised to the Scots. I think this is going to be a biggie!
Another biggie that is rearing its head is the European Train Wreck. Give me my due, I am at least consistent and have said all along that the back corridor dealings intended to hold the Euro together were, in the end, self defeating. There is a real fear now that these stresses, combined with global factors are driving Europe back to the point where it is in danger of going back into recession. This is not private grief, everything is connected. "Events Dear Boy".... The UK 'economic miracle' has always been fragile and insecure as it is based on bad economic and political principles. Austerity and relying on debt to drive the economy were always wrong and as Europe's capacity to import from us decreases we will be affected. There are already small clouds on the horizon as manufacturing industry staggers and the gross GDP figure comes under pressure. The BofE keeps interest rates at 0.5% not because the economic cycle predicates this but because of the fear of the damage an interest rate could cause. Investment in North Sea oil and gas has fallen and the markets are on a tipping point at the top of a current high. Even Ebola is having a small effect which could get much larger.
Not the rosiest prospect and this leaves aside the general depressing effect of continually falling disposable incomes in the lower percentile of the population. Tin hats on Lads!

[Bruff]

Perhaps of more significance with respect to devolution and this United Kingdom is the message 60% of the 'English' voters in Clacton and huge numbers in Middleton sent to the Scots. Which is, we are an increasingly right-wing lot, totally at odds with the vast majority of you. In effect, the English are having their 'vote' on Scottish independence and they are, so an argument goes, driving the Scots to independence. The idea that Scottish independence has gone for a generation is a nonsense in the face of an increasingly right-wing England. And with Scotland gone, so too is any thought of greater English devolution.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I think you're right Richard. If anyone thinks that the result and the departure of Salmond was closure they are blind and as you say, the rise of the right wing in England is a fact. Funnily enough this was forecast by some commentators a long while since but more in respect of Europe. There is a clear agenda on the right to roll back the improvements won for the bottom of society in the 20th century and in the end it will lead to nothing but unrest and a general deterioration that will harm the capital holders as well. There has been an interesting debate on World Service about the combination of fractures in the global capital markets, inequality and what seems to be an endless succession of bad news from Climate Change and Middle East wars to Ebola and the growth of poverty and lack of opportunity in the developing nations. Not a pretty picture.
Everything is connected, the trick is to recognise the linkages. The increasing ability of the web to be used to expose the feet of clay of our leaders led in England to the Expenses scandal. At the time this looked like the Big Event but I become more convinced that it was just a sign of wider fractures in the social contract. The shits of power that have made UKIP possible are perhaps the first signs that the tectonic plates are indeed moving. What intrigues me is that history teaches that to every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. I have yet to fathom what shape this could take.
On a parochial matter, I believe that the Milliband Effect is the biggest problem that Labour faces.... Time is now too short for a full-blown party revolution in leadership. I fear that yet again, they have blown it.