POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Small clouds on the horizon. While Farage and the party leaders try to work out who is going to hold power after the 2015 election there is a worrying report from the Budget Responsibility Committee. Tax revenues fro wages are falling as wages lose ground. This is made worse by the fact that may of the 'jobs' being created are self-employed and the proportion of such enterprises not paying tax has risen from 20% to 35%. The bottomn line is a forecast that HMRC aren't going to meet their revenue target.
Meanwhile, in Europe, a large factor in the slow down appears to be the actions of the regulators who are demanding that the European banks hold more capital. It is estimated that the latest 'stress tests' have resulted in about €90billion having been sucked out of the economy to lie idle in the banks.
There is considerable doubt whether the timetable promised for acting on the devolution promise to Scotland can be achieved and this is going to lead to accusations from Edinburgh that Westminster is reneging on the deal. The reason is that there is a growing demand from English MPs for a re-assessment of the 'Barnet Formula' where by Scotland gets a better subsidy per head than the rest of the UK. The independence question has not gone away....

[Stanley]

It's beginning to dawn on Westminster that the promises Gordon Brown made about the timetable of devolution legislation are impossible. It would be bad enough if it were a simple matter of drafting a new Bill and getting it passed but be prepared to hear a lot about the Midlothian Question and the Barnet formula! Add to that the fact that if Scottish Labour MPs are prevented from voting on English matters Labour will lose any chance of being able to govern and will fight tooth and nail against what seems to be inevitable because the waters are further muddied by the effect of agitation for local devolution in England. Add to this that this is going to produce a reaction against Westminster in Scotland because they are going to be seen as reneging on the deal. This in turn is going to Stoke fresh demands for straight independence. A can of worms has been spilt....
The committee which has been looking into police undercover work has reported and put the blame squarely on senior officers who didn't have enough experience to supervise properly. The consequences are that new undercover roles have been virtually frozen and these are needed particularly in the fields of cyber crime and child abuse. Perhaps fast-tracking of senior entrants rather than the old slog up through the ranks wasn't the best strategy. McKinsey style management could be the wrong way to go.

[Stanley]

I note that there is a growing pressure to leave the interest rate where it is until after the 2015 election. Funny how the 'economic miracle' still requires life support... At the same time Osborne makes noises about selling the government share in Eurostar, another Post Office style rip-off for a temporary economic advantage?
I watch the health workers protesting about wages and note that one of the major factors that has led to this ridiculous situation is the cost of the NHS reforms. Now who was it that announced 'no more top-down reform' when he came to power??

[Bruff]

The NHS workers strike is in effect over the 'either/or' offer put by the Government. That is, they can't have the annual pay rise recommended by the review body or their annual increment. It's worth discussing the increment as you'll get no clarity from a Government Minister on this.

In much of the public sector, folk are employed on pay scales. For the sake of argument, this scale will say start at £14K and run to £24K. Let's illustrate with an example and take a Private in the British Army. Fresh into training this fellow starts at the bottom of this scale, recognising he likely knows not very much about the soldiering business. As he trains and becomes more competent, this is recognised by his progression through the scale; that is, each year he receives an annual increment so that in time (generally between 5-9 years) he reaches the 'rate for the job' or that pay that is deemed 'right' for a fully trained and competent Private. If he wants to earn more than this (more that is than any increase to his 'rate for the job' to account for inflation etc - the annual pay rise), he should look for promotion to Corporal, and this too will have a scale recognising that Corporal brings with it extra demands and competences that you will develop. The Private's pay scale does not go on and on and on, though Ministers would like you to think it does. And to stress, it's the same from Corporal to what is it, Sergeant? As for the squaddie, so for the midwife, so for the radiographer, so for the physiotherapist and of course others like civil servants, social workers, teachers, prison officers.

All seems very reasonable.

The Government is ending automatic progression for all public servants, portraying it as an unearned pay rise each year and every year going on and on and on and on, as I note. But not for the British Army. Which is strange.

Richard Broughton

[PanBiker]

There is another cunning wheeze that can be used in the public sector to control the employees, one that was used on me a number of years ago. I had progressed to the the very top of my pay spine after working just over 9 years in IT rolls in the education sector. Nowhere else to go as the pay scale above was for SO's (Senior Officers), my role was classed as support staff so not allowed to enter there. No worries, I was happy to tick over at "the top of my game" with inflationary increments, I was 56 at the time. LCC then decided to have a pay scale review. First job was to make all the employees to sign a new contract, this was ahead of the results of the review. Old contracts were ended so effectively you had sign to keep your job. The pay review then removed three complete pay grades from the spine. These turned out to be the one I was on and two below it. The net result of this was that my pay dropped overnight from £25K to £18.5K. I was still at the top of the new scale and expected to do the same job but for a lot less money. I was back where I was 7 years earlier with no chance of any further enhancement. Game over for me as at that rate I could not afford to pay off what remained of my mortgage. At 56 I could apply for early retirement with an associated remuneration package and pension which is what I did. I paid off the mortgage but have not really "worked" since, well not what you would call real work. I have now joined the part time brigade on minimum wage. As such, I'm no bother to the government as my current 12 (it used to be 16) hours per week constitutes gainful employment? Fine as far as the government is concerned, I'm a positive statistic. I wonder how many of the latest lot to come of the unemployment register are in the same boat?

[Stanley]

Richard, thanks for the clarity of that explanation. Perhaps the army is seen as more important than the NHS? There is also the uncomfortable fact that they are in trouble with army recruitment, we have a rapidly ageing workforce...
Ian, again a very good explanation of how that particular management trap works.
It all reinforces my contention that a raw 'unemployment' figure is meaningless. Makes a good sound bite as we saw yesterday but what exactly constitutes 'employment'? A zero hours contract or part time job fills the bill but not the wage packet. This is why despite the 'good employment figures' so many families are below the poverty level and are supported by the Benefit System which is a direct subsidy to industry. Add to this the fact that wage rises are still less than inflation, especially the higher inflation in essential costs like energy, transport and food, and we have a situation where an existing shortfall is being increased year on year.
I see that Cameron has leapt in to reprimand Lord Freud for his unguarded remarks about the disabled not being worth the minimum wage. (LINK) What interested me in Nick Robinson's report on this was that he identified one of the problems being that the majority of people are convinced that this is illustrative of the sub-agenda talked about in private by the 'Nasty Tories'. I think he's right. They daren't be transparent about the real agenda which is to roll back the welfare state as it supports scroungers.
The big problem behind this belief set is that eventually they will find out what became apparent at the end of the 19th century. If you regard the working poor as simply a pool of labour to be exploited you gradually drive down the physical and educational condition of the masses and suddenly find that you haven't enough fit men for the army or intelligent motivated people to man higher technologies. This was what triggered the great 'Physical Efficiency' debates, the introduction of public parks, the improvements in living conditions and eventually the advent of social security, the welfare state and eventually the NHS. It worked and by the 1950s (note that it took over 50 years to get an improvement) we had an efficient work force a vibrant industry and an increased tax take. After 1980 we saw bank deregulation, reliance on the 'market economy' for regulation of financial systems and finished up in 2008 by melting down. It is all happening again despite universal acceptance by economists that austerity and reliance on debt to drive the economy is totally wrong. There are only two alternative ways out of this global problem, a global wealth tax to readjust the balance of capital holding in society or another melt-down, but next time it will be the social system not just the economy.
A gloomy assessment? Yes and possibly wrong, I hope so but that's the way the evidence is pointing. Tin hats on Lads!
PS. In case you didn't know Lord Freud is chief adviser to Cameron on reform of the Welfare System and his original career was as a banker. Go figure....

[Bruff]

The Noble Lord Freud is an interesting character.

A former investment banker he was rather depressingly, appointed by Mr Blair to consider and report on the benefits system. On appointment, he proudly noted he knew nothing about the benefits system, but nevertheless 3 weeks later produced a report on this most fiendishly complex of systems, including recommendations for which he himself recognised there was not a shred of evidence. I guess this is an example of bringing the sort of analytical rigour the financial sector is famous for, as the past few years have demonstrated...........not. I imagine being good civil servants, officials were very polite and interested when the report was presented by and discussed with him. Once he'd left the room, they'd all burst out laughing. I think this happens to the PM in Europe.

In a debate a while back in the Lords, a Labour peer intervened when the Noble Lord referred to the huge numbers of people waiting for their benefits assessment as a 'stockpile'. This Labout peer asked whether the DWP could be rather more considerd in their use of language, as 'stockpile' was rather 'dehumanising'. Freud replied, noting that if the peer could come up with a word he would consider it as he himself could not think of one. This prompted another Labour peer to ask whether Freud thought the word 'people' would be appropriate?

I think I might have mentioned before that if this Government, and increasingly much of the country, has a strapline it would be 'effing scroungers everywhere'. But when it suits, the Government will go all out for the scrounger vote, as the proposals on inheritance tax demonstrate

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard, a thought-provoking post... Would you say I was right in suspecting that in certain quarters the basic factor is the concept of 'deserving as opposed to 'non-deserving', that there is a view that we have an underclass which is obviously inferior and should be discouraged. Freud's analysis of the worthiness of a disabled person in respect of the minimum wage is just one example. In the days of the Elizabethan 'New Poor Law' they were more upfront about it, the collective noun for them was vagrants or vagabonds, the 'naughty people'. In later, more enlightened times the causes were considered and resulted in improvements to education to lift these disadvantaged people out of the underclass. It seems to me that we are regressing to the Elizabethan concept, a single mother in Rochdale is less deserving than one born to a middle class family in Surrey?
This nasty undercurrent is still alive and well and I am struck by the fact that the abused children we hear so much about now are, almost without exception, from this underclass. Are they also seen as a 'stockpile' for use by perverts?
One of the most striking aspects of today's society, is that 'worth' is predicated by the ability to consume and not self-improvement a la Smiles 'Self Help'. Many laugh at the Victorians obsession with self help and improvement but we should remember that this was the concept that drove the great social reformers, think Seebohm Rowntree, Wilberforce, Peel and in later years Beveridge. These initiatives were driven by compassion and desire to increase opportunity and 'fairness'. All traits singularly absent now in government policy.

[Stanley]

I was pleased to get a very nicely produced election leaflet on behalf of Azhar Ali, the Labour parliamentary candidate for the Pendle constituency. I don't know the man but will vote for him on principle. Nice to see that the party is active and even nicer that the leaflet was produced in-house at the Labour HQ on Carr Road Nelson.

[Stanley]

See THIS report in the Telegraph of Andy Haldane's comments on the time of any interest rate rise. He is on the Monetary Committee and is an economist for the BofE and he sheds some light on why the interest rate is being held down at 0.5% for the foreseeable future. A combination of the fragility of the 'economic miracle', global trends and fears of an 'event' we can't control. The bottom liner is that we are teetering on a knife edge.
Good news for the Tories of course as they dread a rise before the General Election but bad news as well because it exposes their triumphalism over having beaten the recession and sheds a very cold light on what is actually going on. It all goes back to Economics 101, if you erode the spending power of the 85% of the electorate who support the economy by spending their money as fast as they get it and at the same time suck money out of the system into areas where it doesn't circulate like capital levels in banks and the pockets of the super rich your economy shrinks. If our major export markets in Europe are doing the same it's a double whammy. Then add the fact that to survive more debt has to be taken on by people who can't afford it and you have all the ingredients for an inevitable break down in both the economic system and society itself.
Of course I could be totally wrong.....
I note that Mr Grayling is about to make what I think is another mistake. He proposes amendments to the Criminal Justice Bill which will make it possible for magistrates to pass on actions against 'trolls' to the Crown Court where they can be given two years instead of the six months available to them at the moment. I share his hatred of this behaviour but wonder whether he is attacking the symptom and not the disease. There is a streak of something very nasty in society which triggers these attacks and I don't think a few punitive sentences will cure it.

[Thomo]

I also received a copy of the leaflet from Pendle. I do not know the man either, but I will not be voting for him on principle, albeit a different principle, for I do not cast my vote on blind faith alone.

[Stanley]

If you are describing my loyalty to Labour as blind principle you should state what evidence you have for this. They are anything but blind and not affected by what I suspect you are alluding to, Mr Ali's ethnic origin. If I am correct, that's where any blindness lies. I vote for what he represents, ineffective as it is at the moment the Labour Party is the direct opposition to the ignorant and cruel principles the Tory Party are following. That is not blind, it is reasoned and based on evidence.

[Thomo]

I would not buy a violin unseen just because the vendor told me it was a Strad, whatever their ethnic background. And on the subject of ethnicity, please remember that I have friends from this mans ethnic background, here in this Town and in many other places. I was brought up in a staunch Labour family, but I was never told what to think and do. I have seen much of this world in my lifetime, and viewed what I have seen from all angles, and not just as a tourist.

[Stanley]

See THIS for a report about Fiona Woolf having to defend herself about dinner dates with Lord Brittan who is one of the figures in the case of the lost Dickens file on abuse. I can understand misgivings about her appointment. She refuses to admit that she is part of the establishment she is supposed to investigate. How the current Lord Mayor of London can deny this beats me. Justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done and it would be far better if the enquiry was chaired by someone with experience of child abuse and no connection with the higher echelons. For instance, the Professor who produced the report on Rotherham.

[Stanley]

The pressure on Fiona Woolf mounts. Good! This appointment needs a complete rethink. They must go outside the Westminster/Establishment bubble. There are plenty of good well qualified people out there who can be trusted.

[Stanley]

Dennis Skinner telling Jeremy Hunt the truth about the attitude of millionaires to NHS funding.
The fact that the UK has been fined €2.1billion by the EU for enjoying the 'economic miracle'. (LINK). Just think, if the benefits hadn't been slashed so hard we would have had all that money to spend on them.... Swings and roundabouts?
Later at 09:99. Headline news on the front page of the BET is a report that a third of the children in Pendle are in poverty. In some wards it is almost half. Asked about this Andrew Stephenson trotted out the government line full of misleading statistics but made no mention of the fact that falling disposable incomes, benefit caps and mickey mouse jobs that don't pay a living wage, all the responsibility of the Coalition's economic policies, might be by far the biggest cause. Can nobody see through this smokescreen?
Well done Counsellor David Whipp for speaking out against the folly of scheduling road repairs in our district for the middle of winter. He is right, they should concentrate on the milder coastal areas, working on Bleara in mid winter is quite simply stupid.

[Stanley]

"All sectors of the British economy are growing...." George Osborne speaking yesterday. I have news for you Georgie, wages and disposable incomes are an essential part of the economy so this statement is either ignorant or a lie.
Not impressed by Cameron grandstanding at Brussels yesterday over the £1.7billion bill from the EU. For a start off note that he only said he refused to pay on December 1st, not that he would never sanction payment. Interesting to note the bored, almost amused faces of his audience, they knew he was grandstanding for the benefit of the electors at home and also know that we will have to pay.
Osborne's statement comes under the same heading, listen very carefully to politicians when they are chasing votes to secure their comfortable life.....

[Stanley]

Johann Lamont, Scottish Labour Party leader has resigned and tossed a grenade into Milliband's front room. (LINK)
Her complaint sounds about right and she has a lot of support from senior figures in the party. This is a major problem for the party, an even more serious split than the old left/right wing wars in the party. Question is has Milliband a good enough grip on the party to counter it? I doubt it.
Have a look at THIS and decide for yourself who is telling the truth. I'm inclined to believe that Blair rubbished Milliband in private, entirely in character and he was never a Labour supporter anyway.
Any chance of Chilton Enquiry Report in the near future? I think that we are being hoodwinked, the powers that be are hoping we will forget it....

[Stanley]

I see the cost of a driving licence has been reduced 'to ease the cost to young drivers'. Is it just me or is this simply a way of influencing young electors? Very strange.....
Later at 07:10. Just before we went out I heard the manager of UK investment at Standard and Life pontificating on the economic situation and it struck me while we were out that in his analysis he mentioned nothing but the markets. Fair enough, that's where he makes his money but do you ever get the feeling that there is a whole vast sector of the economy that is almost totally ignored? I allude of course to the attrition on at least 50% of the population caused by falling incomes, rising prices (especially of the essentials) and mickey mouse jobs that don't pay a living wage. This is deliberate of course because any mention of it takes the shine off the Tory 'economic miracle' and is not helpful in the run up to a general election.
Apart from the fact that this is staggering complacency on the part of the wealthy for the very real plight of so many families it is lousy economics and an indicator of where the real ;power lies in the system. As long as vast profits are being made in the markets and the indicators connected with that don't show any weakening this will not change. It's lousy economics in that the major basic driver for the economy is consumption by the lower 85% of the population and they tend to spend all their income. Indeed at the moment we know beyond doubt that any spending there is at the moment is being fuelled in part by debt and government hand outs.
It's a long time since the chairman of General Motors, when asked about using robots to build cars, said that this was fine but robots don't buy cars. This is a very basic view I know but just as true now as it was then. The best base for an economy is a healthy lower percentile who can consume and keep the economy going. The main reason for the strength of the US economy is that they have a very powerful domestic market because on the whole wage levels are good.
Until this is addressed I have no confidence in the long term health of the real economy. It seems to me that we are sleepwalking into the next financial melt-down. All right, in this I am a pessimist but I think I have good reason to be like that.
On a related matter, looking at the state of the three main political parties we see that they are all unhealthy, indeed there is a chance of melt-down in both the Tories and Labour, one on immigration and the other on the consequences of devolution in Scotland. The Liberals have melted down already and UKIP is a one trick pony which cannot survive in its present form. True it could be a big factor next year but its foundations are weak and it can't last. All this means political instability and my question is how much of this can be traced back to the basic flaws in the economy?

[Pluggy]

Regarding poverty and the governments oversimplification of the definition, Officially my household is in poverty, because we're way below 2/3 of the mean income. But we eat out, run a car,we bought a new dishwasher last week and we're looking at new carpets today. Outright ownership of my property has a lot to do with it. No mortgage or rent.....

[Stanley]

Like you Pluggy I am officially in poverty. I've never quite understood it but think that part of the problem is that when they calculate the figure they use the mythical 'average family' and include things I would never spend money on like entertainment, holidays etc. One family's poverty is another's affluence!

[Stanley]

See this LINK for disturbing accounts of unacceptable treatment for wounded veterans. Much trumpeting about leaving Camp Bastion but it looks as though the Tommy Atkins syndrome is alive and well. We promised these men privileged access to treatment as part of the 'Military Covenant' but some have been waiting ten years for surgery. Reports say that there are not even adequate centralised records of the injured personnel. Shameful!

[Stanley]

Have a look at THIS for a Guardian report on Ann Coffey's revelations in a report to be published today on Child Sexual Exploitation in Greater Manchester. She is a former social worker and Labour MP for Stockport. The figures for missing children and possible abuse are staggering and reinforce the impression that what we have seen so far is only the tip of a massive iceberg. Yet more evidence of how we are failing our kids whilst at the same time we care for our financial institutions. The report says that behaviour like this is now 'the norm' in many parts of the Greater Manchester area. What a terrible indictment on our modern social priorities.
News this morning that the US fed is stopping QE. It'll be interesting to see how the markets view the withdrawal of life support.

[Bruff]

I see that Lord Ashdown has noted that the decision by the Government to cease UK spending on the patrols fishing migrants out of the Mediterranean is contrary to maritime law. Is that true? I thought maritime law said that the nearest vessel to a ship in distress diverts course to help and rescue. This will surely still apply, it’s just that there won’t be bespoke vessels out there effectively tasked with the role.

This is a just a matter of detail, the decision is far more interesting. Human nature being what it is there will always be folk who seeing a boat full of folk floundering will think ‘sod them, they can drown’. Some folk seeing a kid in a burning building who shouldn’t be there will quite happily let the kid burn. And I suppose if you go swimming in a quarry pool when you shouldn’t and get into difficulty, there’s plenty who’d let you drown pour encourager les autres, as they say. I’ve even heard folk say the lifelong smokers with terminal lung cancer should be denied treatment as they brought it on themselves. Yes, there are plenty who would stand by and shrug.

But I’ve always felt that the humanity and the decency is in the rescuer, or in the Dr who recognises a fellow human being in distress and seeks to aid them quite irrespective of their wishing they hadn’t rather brought it on themselves. But I suppose I’m just unusual and times have changed and folk are right when they say this country’s gone to the dogs.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

I don't think you have to be quite as pessimistic as that Richard. Of course you are right about the fact that there is a proportion of the 'they brought it on themselves' brigade about but I hope they are the minority. Problem is that their views have more traction with that part of the media that sells news on 'shock and horror'. I'd like to believe that the vast majority of us have compassion for those in distress and are wiling to do something about it. I hope I'm right but like you, at times I wonder....
See THIS for the latest news on the Woolf Fiasco. The letter she sent to Theresa May #explaining' her relationship with the Britains was initiated by her lawyers and re-written seven times! Sounds more like a statement for the defence than a letter supporting a job application. This appointment is fatally flawed and the sooner the light dawns on the government the sooner the victims will get some attention. A disgrace....