CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING

[Tripps]

Someone had a strong sense of humour to locate COP 29 in Baku. I think it also was the birthplace of Gary Kasparov. I read a long time ago in that connection, that it was virtually floating on oil, and blessed with large supplies of the stuff.

I find from Wikipedia in 1911

Baku is a city founded upon oil, for to its inexhaustible founts of naphtha it owes its very existence, its maintenance, its prosperity... At present Baku produces one-fifth of the oil that is used in the world, and the immense output in crude petroleum from this single city far surpasses that in any other district where oil is found. Verily, the words of the Scriptures find illustration here: 'the rock poured me out rivers of oil. Oil is in the air one breathes, in one's nostrils, in one's eyes, in the water of the morning bath (though not in the drinking water, for that is brought in bottles from distant mineral springs), in one's starched linen – everywhere. This is the impression one carries away from Baku, and it is certainly true in the environs.[

[Stanley]

And as they open proceedings the UN says that 2024 will almost certainly be the hottest year in the modern record. Observers say that the main business of COP 29 is identifying where the billions of funding is going to come from. The nations most at risk say that trillions, not billions are needed.
Is it time we threw the towel in and admitted that we have failed miserably to appreciate the dangers and take appropriate steps?

[Tizer]

It's not just dams to worry about now but the effects of sudden water flows due to melting glaciers...
`Melting glaciers leave homes teetering in valley of jagged mountains' LINK
“In the morning everything was normal, I went to school,” Komal says, “but then my teacher told me that Hassanabad bridge had collapsed.” Upstream, a glacial lake had formed, then suddenly burst - sending water, boulders and debris cascading down the valley and gathering speed. The ground trembled so violently some people thought there was an earthquake. When the torrent hit the cement bridge that connected the two parts of the village, it turned it to rubble.

[Stanley]

And look who the Orange Knob has appointed in charge of energy, a CEO of a fracking company who says that the climate change initiatives in the US are a communist plot.

[Tripps]

And look who the Orange Knob has appointed in charge of energy,

I take it you are referring to the landslide election winning President Elect - Donald J Trump?

[Stanley]

You Bet!

See THIS Warning on climate.
With her signature shawl draped over her shoulders and silver hair pulled back from her face, Jane Goodall exudes serenity - even over our slightly blurry video call. In a Vienna hotel room, a press team and a small group of filmmakers, who are documenting her latest speaking tour, fuss around her. The famous primatologist and conservationist settles into a high-backed chair that dwarfs her slender frame. On my screen I can see that behind her, on a shelf, is her toy monkey, Mr H. The toy was given to her nearly 30 years ago by a friend and has travelled the world with her. Dr Goodall is now 90 years of age, and she and Mr H are still travelling.“We’re in the midst of the sixth great extinction,” Dr Goodall tells me during our interview for BBC Radio 4’s Inside Science. “The more we can do to restore nature and protect existing forests, the better.”This week, world leaders have gathered in Baku, Azerbaijan, for COP29 - the latest round of UN climate talks........... And Dr Goodall says taking action to slow down the warming of our planet is more urgent than ever......... “We still have a window of time to start slowing down climate change and loss of biodiversity,” Dr Goodall says. “But it's a window that's closing.”

[Tizer]

At least after the last 2 conferences (UAE and Azerbajan) the organisers of the United Nations Climate Change Conferences have realised that it's counter-productive to hold them in `burn, baby, burn' countries devoted to oil and/or coal production; although the 2025 one was already set in place and that's `burn, baby, burn'. Brazil is Latin America's top oil producer. The country owns the largest recoverable ultra-deep oil reserves in the world, with 97.6% of Brazil's oil production produced offshore. It also applies the `burn, baby, burn' philosophy to forest too.

[Stanley]

Quite right Peter. It's facts like that that convince me we have left it too late. Were doomed I tell ye!

Later at 05:00.
See THIS report about the Great Barrier Reef.
The northern sections of the Great Barrier Reef have lost a large chunk of its coral as climate change, cyclones and floods continue to threaten disturbance to the mighty natural wonder. Preliminary results from the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) in-water surveys found that 12 out 19 reefs surveyed along the tourist-populated central-northern coast between Lizard Island and Cardwell have seen serious coral decline in the past year. The survey results, although not-yet complete, indicate the northern parts of the reef have suffered multiple disturbances over the summer, which has impacted the coral and its surroundings, More than a third of the hard coral cover, which is a measure of percentage of the live coral on the reef’s surface, was lost on the Cooktown-Lizard Island sector, the largest decline in hard coral cover in the 39 years AIMS has been conducting its Long Term Monitoring Program. Reports indicate that one part of the Cooktown-Lizard Island reef lost almost three-quarters of its coral cover since the start of the year.
How much more evidence does the world need? The people who are fuelling conflict all over the world would do well to ask themselves some searching questions..... But of course it won't happen, that's why we are doomed, we are on a course of self-destruction.

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report about Cyclone Chido hits Mayotte.....
15 December 2024 Updated 13 minutes ago.
Hundreds of people are feared dead in Mayotte after the French Indian Ocean territory was devastated by a powerful cyclone. Rescue workers, including reinforcements from France, are combing through the debris searching for survivors. Entire settlements were flattened when Cyclone Chido brought wind speeds of more than 225km/h (140mph), with the poorest living in makeshift shelters particularly hard hit. Francois-Xavier Bieuville, the island's prefect, told local media the death toll could rise significantly once the damage is fully assessed. He warned it will "definitely be several hundred" and could reach the thousands. French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who is scheduled to visit the island to assess the damage and coordinate further relief efforts, acknowledged the "exceptional severity" of the cyclone and assured that efforts to assist the population are being ramped up.
This exceptional event could of course be another example of the effects of global warming.

[Tizer]

It's intensity will have been made greater by the extra water in the atmosphere and the disturbance of wind and sea currents that result from climate warming - and that's simple physics, no need for theories or models or whatever. The cyclone has now moved on to the African mainland. The wind speeds have decreased but rainfall is unusually high and will cause dangerous floods. (A fact I noticed in one of the reports: Half the population of Mayotte is (was?) aged 17 or younger.)

[Stanley]

"Half the population of Mayotte is (was?) aged 17 or younger.)"
I've noticed that in other under-developed countries as well Peter. I suspect it's down to greater fecundity because they are living more naturally than us and a lower life expectancy.
With regard to the physics of climate change. I suspect that we have passed at least one of the 'tipping points' which is surface ocean temperature....
(The Trump Nominee for his administration who says climate change is a myth is a dinosaur!)

[Stanley]

See THIS for yet another warning about climate change.
Storms and flooding have damaged some of the UK's most precious heritage, according to the National Trust - the UK's biggest conservation charity. It says extreme weather is taking a toll on the estates it manages in England and Wales, with many mature trees brought down and flooding damaging buildings and gardens. Warm, wet conditions have prevailed this year and that has brought problems too, the Trust says in its annual roundup of how the weather and climate has affected its vast holdings of land and property. It says increasing "homogenisation" is blurring distinctions between the seasons, which can be challenging for many insect species and the predators that depend on them.
There is more in the article..... It makes you wonder what 2025 is going to bring......

[Tizer]

What struck me was the comment about the old houses having ancient gutters and downpipes that can't cope with the amount and frequency of heavy rain we get now. Pity the poor gargoyles!

[Stanley]

Peter, you've reminded me of a time when I was house-sitting in Northfield and we were under an enormous storm cell that put a tornado down about two miles away. Part of the bombardment was 6" of rain falling in two hours and I remember that at one point the water ran down the roofs so fast it shot over the gutters and fell straight to the ground.
I don't think there is much doubt that our climate has passed some sort of tipping point. Our current weather is hardly what you would call traditional winter weather!

[Tizer]

In one of this year's storms the rainfall was so great we had water overflowing the gutters of our house. I hope the builders of modern housing estates are putting in deeper gutters, wider downpipes and better drains. They'll be needed! And if they still use soakaways they'll probably lead to floods.

[Stanley]

I doubt whether building regs will change that quickly Peter. After all they are still building on flood plains.....



Remember this?

[Stanley]

Have a look at THIS......
Climate change has brought record-breaking heat this year, and with it extreme weather, from hurricanes to month-long droughts. This year is expected to be the hottest on record, and new research shows that people around the world experienced an additional 41 days of dangerous heat due to climate change. Researchers from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at Imperial College and Climate Central said the study shows "we are living in a dangerous new era".
The rest of the article is well worth reading. All the evidence points to climate change being well under way, not something we can avoid by fancy footwork!

[Stanley]

See THIS report on 2024.
Earth recorded its hottest year ever in 2024, with such a big jump that the planet temporarily passed a major climate threshold, several weather monitoring agencies announced Friday. Last year’s global average temperature easily passed 2023’s record heat and kept pushing even higher. It surpassed the long-term warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit ) since the late 1800s that was called for by the 2015 Paris climate pact, according to the European Commission’s Copernicus Climate Service, the United Kingdom’s Meteorology Office and Japan’s weather agency. The European team calculated 1.6 degrees Celsius (2.89 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming. Japan found 1.57 degrees Celsius (2.83 degrees Fahrenheit) and the British 1.53 degrees Celsius (2.75 degrees Fahrenheit) in releases of data coordinated to early Friday morning European time.

[Tizer]

Desecrating Charles Darwin's grave seems a very odd way to go about encouraging people to help prevent further climate change. These two must be crackers! The only thing their action will do is encourage is more vandalism
`Arrests after Charles Darwin grave spray-painted' BBC

[Stanley]

I guess they just wanted to shock but they could have done that without desecrating a grave. I suppose it was warmer to sit in and protest in the Abbey!

[Stanley]

See THIS BBC report issued an hour ago.......
Levels of the most significant planet-warming gas in our atmosphere rose more quickly than ever previously recorded last year, scientists say, leaving a key global climate target hanging by a thread. Concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) are now more than 50% higher than before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels. Last year, fossil fuel emissions were at record highs, while the natural world struggled to absorb as much CO2 due to factors including wildfires and drought, so more accumulated in the atmosphere. The rapid increase in CO2 is "incompatible" with the international pledge to try to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, the Met Office says. This was the ambitious goal agreed by nearly 200 countries at a landmark UN meeting in Paris in 2015, with the hope of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. Last week it was confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year on record, and the first calendar year in which annual average temperatures were higher than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

[Stanley]

In the same week that Trump has taken the US out of the climate accords on the grounds that climate change is an illusion..... Reports come in from the Southern states that they are having blizzard conditions, unheard of so far south.....
Will Trump be having a rethink?

[Tripps]

What was that new word again? Oh yes "Dunkelflaute".

I can't speak for these figures - it's a cut and paste from Guido Fawkes -

Another cold day, another example of Red Ed’s climate crusade proving to be a vanity project the UK can’t afford. Over the last 18 hours, wind farms supplied between 0.1% to 3.7% of the UK’s electricity, while solar hit a low of 0%. Gas has been providing between 59% to 70% of electricity. No surprise that wind and solar farms are effectively useless when it’s a cloudy, windless day…

[Stanley]

Funny, I was reading somewhere that solar was productive even in overcast weather.....
But Fawkes is correct, Gas is taking the strain when renewables fail. The answer is, as ever, Fusion. Roll on the day!

[Tizer]

It depends on how overcast the weather is. At the moment (10.50) here we've got heavy rain, mist and it's rather dark and not surprisingly our panels are running at a feeble 30W. But the panels don't need direct sunshine, they'll work well with a cloudy or hazy sky as long as it's bright.