Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Big Kev]

The news tonight is all about the 'mutant strain'. Said to be a lot more infectious than the 'regular strain', and possibly the reason for the recent increase in infections - but 'don't worry the vaccine will still work against it'. (probably).

Whether it does or not - they could hardly say anything else could they - after all the rejoicing at the arrival of the vaccine, just a few days ago. The post truth era - writ large.

Can't help thinking that the flu vaccine is reformulated each year to take into account new variants. Often based on what has been seen in Australia.

That is an influenza virus though, not a corona virus. Let's hope they are not the same.

As Tizer pointed out further up this thread 'Even if this variant is more infectious it might have less serious effects on health - with viruses increased infectiousness often correlates with lower symptoms and vice versa.'

[plaques]

Will someone please help me out on this virus mutation thingy. A covid virus mutates, Ok I understand that and this could be happening everywhere there's a virus but it must be inside a human (mainly). If this human doesn't pass it on ( 'R' rate = zero) then that mutation dies off. If the 'R' rate is high it will be passed on numerous times and therefore will be seen to spread more quickly. So following my feeble brain logic its not the virus that is easier to transmit its the conditions of close proximity transmission that lets it spread so fast.
Which brings me to a nice little conspiracy theory that the government are using the mutation as a cover up for failures in their control policies.

[Sue]

The new strain of coronavirus - everything scientists are saying about it
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... 488067this article states its not new but has been already identified in other countries. I do think they are using it as an excuse for rising numbers down south rather than the behaviour of people put in tier 2 when they should have been in tier 3 all along

[Big Kev]

The new strain of coronavirus - everything scientists are saying about it
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk ... 488067this article states its not new but has been already identified in other countries. I do think they are using it as an excuse for rising numbers down south rather than the behaviour of people put in tier 2 when they should have been in tier 3 all along

Sounds about right to me. I noticed the BBC scaremongering again this morning about the hospital beds being at nearly 90% capacity. Buried deep in the article, and as you showed yesterday, it mentions that this is normal for the time of year and is down on last years figures. A breakdown shows the North West considerably lower than London and the South East...

Italy have called a lockdown over Christmas and New Year BBC News

[Tizer]

Tripps, the covid-19 strains are bound to change in future years and we'll keep having to up our game with vaccines as we do for flu. Also, we'll see more `zoonoses', diseases jumping from wild animals into humans, due to us burning down forests and taking over the habitats of wild animals. Just think how foxes have come into towns and seagulls are taking advantage of our artificial cliffs. It's even worse in the Far East.

I listened to the radio this morning on the latest on the new strain of covid-19 but heard little new. One thing I wish to know is this. Is the strain limited to the UK or is it spreading in other countries. Italy has had a bad time with very fast spreading of covid - do they have this strain? What about the US? Spreading is fast there and we blame it on trump but is it this new strain? All this is important because we might be letting it cross borders.

[Big Kev]

Government to hold a press conference at 4pm today. It seems this new 'strain' is spreading through the South East fairly quickly. Probably a good opportunity to impose tighter restrictions in the North then...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55376727

Be interesting to see if the BBC speculation matches up with the 4pm press conference
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55376727

[Tripps]

We will soon know what is going to happen. I have lots of thoughts swirling around - some of which even contradict each other. I won't trouble you all with them.

It has brought to mind what James O'Brien has been saying on LBC all week. I don't get on with him, but he invented the word 'footballification' to describe much of what is happening now. I think he may have something - and I'd even suggest 'facebookisation' as an alternative.

I think we've seen some examples on here recently.

PS - the idea that all restrictions could be dropped for five days and up to 3 households ( no limit to numbers?) could meet anywhere is plainly ridiculous.

The reaction of experts this morning was interesting. Prof. David King (over 80) has had the vaccine, and he turned his description of the process, into an attack on Serco et al, and praise for the NHS staff who administered it. He has a point - but for now let's just get on with it and leave the politics for later.

Tiz - I think I read that the new variant has been seen elsewhere in the world too.

[Tizer]

Tiz - I think I read that the new variant has been seen elsewhere in the world too.

I've done a google search but all I can find is this: `Similar versions of the virus have also been identified in other countries in recent months, Mr Hancock said' in The Scotsman newspaper's web page, 15th December. I wonder if they are exactly the same and whether or not they came from us or we got it from them. Hancock is not the most reliable source of information!

At least Vallance says there's no evidence that the new strain causes more severe illness or higher mortality , although it's more transmissible.

[Whyperion]

Some good news...
`Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill' LINK
`Why some people with coronavirus have no symptoms and others get extremely ill is one of the pandemic's biggest puzzles. A study of more than 2,200 patients in intensive care has identified specific genes that may hold the answer. They make some people more susceptible to severe Covid-19 symptoms than others. The findings shed light on where the immune system goes wrong, which could help identify new treatments..'.

We have been informed that the main protein changes are on the speed of transmission, and the more likely transmission for being in a given proximity for a given period of time. As to if this is a by-product of also finding ways around genetic protectors that increase the effective human body buffer appears to be discounted (but to me this may be wrong so to do). I think the lack of SE England lockdown - or the stubborn retaining of a fixed date in December for the end of lockdown2 despite statistical evidence to the contrary to me remains the cupability of the PM to bend to the political calls for liberation and freedom - that , sorry , dont work, against a virus that is changing. I suppose statistically you could argue though that lockdown restrictions do favour a varient that can infect in a faster time, it would appear a natural selection response in so far as the slower burn fuse holding virus loads will be beaten by the fast moving out of the gates to infect and spread ones, this might end up being a positive in the vaccine outcome, as a fast one should literally be tripped up hitting a pre-immune triggered individual.
One does not understand though that many local areas must be having a community immunity to most variations - let us assume that a fast infecting one in all other ways is not evading other immune responses that may have been built up in individuals previously.

[Whyperion]

Same on the BBC TV news. They were presenting it as if the virus was a sentient being.

Thinking about it I am beginning to think if there is communication between (or within) virus species , I doubt every protein on viruses has been fully analysed for what it does, in terms of chemical communicators, that we know plants and fungi have in terms of reactions to stress (chemical, insect or aridness changes), or favourable opportunities.

[Stanley]

Well, we all know now what the latest instructions are, lock down until you have had a vaccination. That's what the various statements from the 'Four Home Nations*' amount to.
(Re *, have you noticed how this description has entered the political lexicon of late? Is this in preparation for the loosening of the bonds of the Union?
Later... A good example of the futility of relying on the 'common sense of the great British public'. A vox pop done by a radio reporter at a major railway station in London interviewing people who, on hearing Tier IV came in at midnight had headed straight to the station to travel North. Quite obvious from their comments that they had given no thought at all to the reasons for the lock down.
The latest advice this morning is that anyone in a Tier IV zone should assume that they are infectious and act accordingly.

[plaques]

Sue wrote. Anyway, lets be positive. At least our PM acknowledged yesterday that the tier system had worked in the NW and only 5 % of the population have the new variant in the North. Perhaps it would have been the same in the South if they had been put in tier 3 like they should have been. I hope a localised tier 4 is going to be a replacement for any future national lockdown.
I agree.

My simple brain is at it again with a thought on mutant virus's. If I compare what happens with the influenza virus where each summer it virtually disappears in terms of infection rates but then comes winter and a new variant appears from abroad it has a full population to infect, boom, everybody gets it. Back to the covid virus where its endemic a new variant is now in competition with the old one and is struggling to get a meaningful toe hold except were the incidence is low and the population are in contact with each other, boom, it spreads like wild fire. The bottom line is the spread depends on the people available rather than some minor novelty in the virus.
The real uncertainty is next year when a new mutant may overcome the vaccine and then has a full population to go at.

[Stanley]

Thanks for that cheerful thought Ken. I shall go to bed and put my head under the duvet.

[Big Kev]

Later... A good example of the futility of relying on the 'common sense of the great British public'. A vox pop done by a radio reporter at a major railway station in London interviewing people who, on hearing Tier IV came in at midnight had headed straight to the station to travel North. Quite obvious from their comments that they had given no thought at all to the reasons for the lock down.
The latest advice this morning is that anyone in a Tier IV zone should assume that they are infectious and act accordingly.

I believe the government avoided relying on the 'common sense of the great British public' by only giving a few hours notice for tier 4. If they'd given the 'usual' notice period for a lockdown there would have been thousands, not hundreds, heading for railway stations over the next few days.

[Tizer]

In a previous post I suggested we should have put a military person in charge here, like General Gustave Perna, the head of Operation Warp Speed in the US. They're used to organisation on the big scale and at short notice. Now it turns out that, like me, he's not infallible. But on the other hand he admits making a mistake, takes full blame, apologises in public and gets on with rectifying it.

`Coronavirus: Trump's Covid vaccine chief admits delivery mistake' LINK
`....Gen Perna apologised several times to state governors during a telephone briefing to reporters. He said he had given out the numbers of doses based on what he believed would be ready, stressing it was his personal fault. "I'm the one who approved forecast sheets. I'm the one who approved allocations," he said. "There is no problem with the process. There is no problem with the Pfizer vaccine. There is no problem with the Moderna vaccine. "I failed. I'm adjusting. I'm fixing and we'll move forward from there."...

[Big Kev]

And that's all the sensible people want to hear, someone admitting to making a mistake and putting it right.

[PanBiker]

My simple brain is at it again with a thought on mutant virus's. If I compare what happens with the influenza virus where each summer it virtually disappears in terms of infection rates but then comes winter and a new variant appears from abroad it has a full population to infect, boom, everybody gets it. Back to the covid virus where its endemic a new variant is now in competition with the old one and is struggling to get a meaningful toe hold except were the incidence is low and the population are in contact with each other, boom, it spreads like wild fire. The bottom line is the spread depends on the people available rather than some minor novelty in the virus.
The real uncertainty is next year when a new mutant may overcome the vaccine and then has a full population to go at.

Looks like the eventual outcome will be a best guess Flu variant and a best guess Covid variant vaccine every year. Might actually provide employment as it may require permanent vaccination centres around the country to cover the requirement.

[Tizer]

Might actually provide employment as it may require permanent vaccination centres around the country to cover the requirement.

Yes, and with so many people losing their jobs now is the time to train more of them as medical staff and it will mean giving them financial support while on long training courses.

[Tripps]

I have had a quite depressing day today from the Covid point of view. The situation just gets worse and worse. No one knows how well the vaccine programme will turn out, and there are still a lot of unknowns. No hiccups yet - but I think there will be. Still too much politics in a medical emergency situation.

[Stanley]

You took the words right out of my mouth David. exactly my sentiments. I try to be positive but every now and then it all goes grey.
But then a young friend delivers six mince pies as per usual....

[plaques]

Doom and gloom strikes again. Has Boris been hoist by his own petard? After weeks of ignoring the fact that the covid virus was spreading in London and should have been put under tier 3 restrictions at least two weeks ago he tried to side step this failure by saying its a new strain of covid which spreads faster although the actual mechanism for faster transmission hasn't been proven. Undoubtedly its true that this is a new variant but its not a excuse for inaction. Surprise, surprise, by placing emphasis on the 'new strain' element countries outside the UK have taken it at face value and stopped flights and trucks entering their countries. Of course there may be more than a dash of politicking in this action just to demonstrate what a NO Deal Brexit may look like.

I like this definition of Petard.

A "petard" is a "small bomb used to blow in doors and breach walls" and comes from the French pétard, which, through Middle French (péter) and Old French (pet), ultimately comes from the Latin pedere ("to break wind") or, much more commonly, the slang form "to fart."

[PanBiker]

A "petard" is a "small bomb used to blow in doors and breach walls" and comes from the French pétard, which, through Middle French (péter) and Old French (pet), ultimately comes from the Latin pedere ("to break wind") or, much more commonly, the slang form "to fart."

I feel a picture coming on from Stanley, a former Mystery Object.

[Marilyn]

Think back to our Pizza Shop horror when it came to pass we were possibly facing a more virulent and quicker acting form of the virus, when it appeared someone had contacted Covid from the outside of a Pizza Box “delivered” about 24 hours previously. We went into instant lockdown. After three days, the lies of the Pizza Shop worker emancipated us...
He shut down a whole state...

[Tizer]

Here's what we know at present from the BBC's Health and science correspondent, James Gallagher...
`New coronavirus variant: What do we know?' LINK
There's a lot of uncertainty but one thing our leaders should learn from this is that at the first sign of a pandemic they should ACT FAST and ACT TOUGH. The longer you wait, the more dither, the more chance for nasty mutants to emerge (and that means more deaths, more long term illnesses and a greater hit on the economy). Will they ever learn?

[Cathy]

And thanks to the Pizza Guy I haven’t been allowed to Volunteer since November 16 (or 19). Due to the hospital having to be so strict.
And the V’s office closed on Dec 18 for Christmas and we aren’t due back now till Jan 11.
Thanks Pizza Guy