POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

Bookies suspend bets on the chance of the Queen abdicating after a rush of bets after she recorded her Xmas speech. Speculation that she is going to mention it has been described by the palace as untrue. (LINK)
I am not impressed by Cameron citing a fall in unemployment and a small increase in wage rate trend over inflation as proof that the Tory economic policies are working and that everything is fine for the lower paid workers.... Too much evidence to the contrary which of course he totally ignores. Expect more of this smoke and mirrors in the run up to May. (LINK)
The series they are running at 09:45 this morning 'The Kingdom to Come' was good again this morning, it was Alistair Darling. Tomorrow it's William Hague. Definitely worth listening to, authoritative and very informing.

[Stanley]

I heard part of PMQs this morning. I might be missing something but I fail to see how this slapstick electioneering advances the political well being of the UK.
Some surprising facts emerged this morning about Nigeria during a report of how this oil producer's currency is devaluing under the pressure of falling oil prices. The population of Nigeria is bigger than Russia. Now that surprised me!

[Stanley]

I think this one comes under politics.... Two days ago there was a main news item on most of the media featuring the DCS in charge of the investigation into the possible involvement of Establishment figures (Politicians, Legal men and High Ranking officers in the Armed Services) being involved in a paedophile ring that could possibly have led to the deaths of three children. They even named the Location, Dolphin Square (spooky, I stayed there one night in the period in question). This is all based on the lengthy interrogation of the anonymous witness 'Nick' who came forward when the Brittain story first broke following the disappearance of the child abuse dossier. You can imagine how carefully they are conducting this investigation but they are evidently convinced by 'Nicks' story because they have gone public to say so and are appealing for other witnesses to come forward. I think we can safely surmise that they wouldn't have done this without some very substantial corroborated evidence.
If this is a viable investigation it is potentially dynamite. If this is true my worry is that there will be powerful forces working against the process of discovery. Who do we trust? On balance I think there is a case to answer, the police evidently think so. I hope they are successful and the criminals are brought to justice no matter how powerful they are. I don't do conspiracy theories, I believe this has gone beyond rumour and surmise.

[Stanley]

More news surfaces about paedophile rings in Parliament. See THIS for a telegraph article this morning. 22 MPs have been named in a dossier presented to the police and this is in addition to the evidence of witness 'Nick' who is being listened to seriously by the police. I hope they get to the bottom of this.
Closely related and perhaps influenced by the above is news that Theresa May has written to the members of the existing CSA committee at present waiting for a chair to say that they will be disbanded because the probability is that a more powerful inquiry will be put in place. (LINK). It looks as though things are moving and I hope that this is not some sort of a ploy to put a lid on the investigation and drag on for years. If it is, I predict it will backfire. History tells us that botched cover ups like the Watergate example are often the catalyst that breaks the dam and causes chaos. If ever we needed transparency it is now!
When the Expenses scandal was in full flow I said that I detected signs that the tectonic plates of politics were shifting. Apart from the above, I listened last night to MPs 'predicting' what would happen in May. In truth none of them know but I was struck by the chairman of the Tory 1922 Committee who predicted that UKIP would only get one seat with Robert Carswell and that before the end of the Parliament he would be sitting as an Independent. Talk about optimism triumphing over reality! I don't think it is going to be as simple as that......

[Stanley]

I've just heard David Cameron's 'Motherhood and Apple Pie' Xmas message to the nation in which he extols the virtues of sharing, giving and supporting others less well off then yourself. On the face of it perfectly laudable, but..... This from a Prime Minister who in the last four and a half years has presided over a government whose economic policies have driven at least 50% of the population into a worse economic condition than the dark days of WW2 and if re-elected will impose a further 60% round of cuts which will take the poorest back to the Depression Days of the 1930s. (By the way, this is the official opinion of the independent body for budget responsibility not just the ravings of an old leftie.)
Does he not realise how deeply cynical his message is to many of us? Is he not aware how hypocritical this sounds? He is either thick or totally indifferent to the plight of so many in the land.
I note that the Noble Lord Ashcroft has commissioned a poll in Pendle which shows that if there was an election tomorrow Labour would win by a small margin. He goes on to manipulate the result to 'prove' the opposite. I have news for him and his ilk. Things are not going to get any better before May and every piece of bad news will chip away at the Tory vote. For instance, we see that the latest revision of growth in the economy is downwards under the influence of mounting trouble in the EU and the catastrophic fall in oil prices. On the latter, OPEC have announced that they will not cut back production and are prepared to see the price fall to $20 a barrel from the high last June of $100. I heard an oil expert this m0orning saying that this was not impossible as the Gulf States have evidently set out to make prospecting for new wells and bring them on line uneconomical. The general consensus is that what we are seeing is a naked fight for market share. Theoretically this is good for consumers but in the UK case what does it do for tax revenues? One example, the case for Scottish Independence was largely based on a budget that assumed a price of $100.....
And a happy New Year to all......

[Stanley]

The only news I have seen this morning that could be described as political is the City Link closure and the announcement by Saudi Arabia that they are going to show a deficit on the current budget account due to the fall in the price of oil. However they say that they don't expect this to last long.... Well, we'll see about that. The market says that the low price will drive out the inefficient producers and lessen supply so the price will automatically start to rise as consumption aligns with supply. Question is how long will that take and nobody has an answer for that one!
I've commented on the closure of City Link elsewhere but I am still angry because it has become fairly certain that 3000 employees and contractors will get their last payments at the end of December. Just think what that will mean for families who are already overstretched and who may have spent more than normal over Xmas. I feel so sorry for them but this is par for the course in these days when job security is a thing of the past.
It wasn't always like this. I remember seeing a group portrait made in the 1930s I think at Gillows in Lancaster, then probably the most successful cabinet makers in Britain. There were probably 300 people on the picture and all of them had at least 25 years service with the company.... All that is a thing of the past.... In my lifetime I can remember the Wages Councils which set minimum pay and conditions in various industries. At the dairy we were relatively poorly paid but we had scales of overtime, sick and holiday pay and no doubt at all that as long as we did our job we were secure.
Now we have the minimum wage but as far as I know, no general statutory basis for overtime, sick and holiday pay and in some cases no guarantee of work. The infamous Zero Hours Contract. How did we get here..... I'm glad I am too old to have to deal with these things.
So, forward into an interesting year....

[Tizer]

City Link started life in 1969 as a way of distributing parcels for BR Red Star but got into difficulties much later on. There were supposed to be closures some years ago to keep the business viable but they didn't happen, with management claiming they could struggle on. It was heading for collapse but the the owner, Initial Rentokil, sold it to a corporate restructuring firm called Better Capital in April 2013. When that happens you know it's at an end...the restructurers squeeze out what they can then let it go into administration. It's interesting how they often do this at Christmas. When we had a publishing business we used a Newcastle printer for many years to print our books but then it was suddenly shut down at Christmas without any warning. We'd sent all the files for a new book to be printed at the end of December and when we tried to check on progress on 1st January there was no way we could contact anybody. It went on for weeks with no idea what was happening, until we got a letter from the administrator. The company had a lot of our stock of printed books and it was murder getting them released and sent to us. They even sent us other people's books and some of ours went elsewhere. There was nothing we could do, you just had to accept that you'd lost some stock and look elsewhere very quickly for another printer (who we found at the other end of the country, in Padstow).

[Stanley]

"A good day to put bad news out" Remember that one? Rolls Royce did it a few years since and I wrote an article about it. I'll find it and bump it....
The bottom line is that there is no humanity or compassion in employment by large corporations these days. The accountants rule and labour is seen as just another input. There are of course exceptions to this like Lewis and it's notable how resilient they seem to be. There is still value in treating the workers like human beings. On a larger scale we see the same attitude in current economic policies, the balance sheet rules and the people least able to protect themselves are expendable. This is a despicable way of running any human enterprise and in the end will be counter-productive.

[Stanley]

The politicians are starting to emerge from their holiday hibernation. Nick Clegg appeals for votes this morning on the grounds that if the Lib Dems hadn't been partners in the coalition things would have been much worse. Not the most positive piece of electioneering I have ever heard!
Get ready for a very dirty election campaign, three months of infighting!
All eyes this morning on Greece where there could be a change of government and an increased threat of a partial default. The Euro is falling on the markets because of uncertainty and any problems there will affect us here. "Events Dear Boy".
More trouble for Cameron and his Cabinet Office. See THIS for a Guardian report on papers released under the 30 year rule which show that Oliver Letwin was the main advocate for using Scotland as a test bed for the Poll Tax even though other senior ministers argued that it would be catastrophic. Letwin is chief Policy Adviser to Cameron.... This is still a politically hot topic as it featured in the Scottish referendum campaign as an example of Westminster treating Scotland as though they were a second class country.
I often bang on about my belief that many, if not most, current Tory policies are ideological, driven by Tory DNA. Here's an example of it still embedded in the cabinet. Go figure.....

[Stanley]

The New Year Honours List brings in it's usual problems. First some names were leaked early and this morning the main criticism is the insensitive dame hood given to Fiona Woolf.
The arch opportunist Blair goes public to say that the Labour Party is too left wing. This after half-heartedly predicting a Labour government in the next parliament. Does this man never learn? It was his swing away from Left principles in 1997 that started the rot in the party that eventually led to its collapse. The only thing that kept him in power for so long was the awful performance of the Opposition. In general terms the Party is on the right track in terms of principle, what is lacking is a good leader and some really aggressive electioneering. At the moment Milliband is reported as not speaking to his campaigning team.... Time for a wake up call! Can you imagine them sleepwalking like this if Patricia Hodge was in charge?

[Stanley]

Listening to Lady Butler Schloss commenting on the child abuse scandal yesterday I was struck by her massive assumption that the only type of person who could successfully run the new public enquiry was someone of her ilk as they were the only class capable of managing complicated investigations at this level. In a strange way I feel sorry for her because she is so steeped in the old assumptions about who should rule the country that she actually believes tripe like this. There are plenty of precedents for the 'common people' making a pretty good job of managing our world and making it better. It wasn't establishment principle that gave us the post war housing programme and the NHS to name but two. The survivors are, quite rightly, incensed.
The economists are picking over the bones of what happened in 2014 and making their assessments and it doesn't make for good listening. They are resigned to the faults in the banking system and forecasting more of the same in 2015. They are puzzled as to why the FTSE 100 in UK is doing so badly compared to other countries and are beginning to realise that there is something wrong somewhere in the much vaunted 'economic miracle'. In a discussion last night about inequality last night I heard the BBC economist analysing Thomas Piketty's theories and she said that she suspected that many who quoted him hadn't read the book and understood it. I have news for her because she has missed the core point that Piketty makes which is that crude GDP figures, if projected ahead, show far lower average levels than in the last fifty years and this means that the top capital owners are drawing more out in returns from investment than the market can support and in effect this is sucking capital out of the 90percentile below them reducing their disposable incomes and preventing them from being effective contributors to the tax take. This flaw in the system is self-sustaining and until it is altered the general 'hollowing out' of 90% of incomes will continue. Piketty sees only two alternatives, a Global Wealth Tax or increasing social unrest. He supports his thesis with good evidence. I suggest she takes some time off and goes back to read it again! (And while she is at it, read Marx as well. He was a pretty good prophet!)

[plaques]

More smoke and mirrors over the country's deficit. According to the latest Tory propaganda the deficit has been further reduced from a third down to a half. Deficit. Forget hard figures like £'s sterling lets talk about percentages against GDP, another statistical aberration that nobody really understands. A recent example of GDP nonsense is that the recent rise in rail fairs will add to the GDP. Consequently, the Country's economy is increasing so stop thinking its bad for you when actually by using this measure you are better off. (Alice in Wonderland comes to mind). Of course there will be plenty of the better off wooden tops and possible a few people on payday loans who actually believe it. I'm beginning to think that the whole purpose of this propaganda is to stir up apathy. If you can get my drift!.

[Stanley]

Quite right P. The Tories are always raising the bogeymen of borrowing but all governments since the 1940s and most major businesses recognise that borrowing money at low interest rates and using it to invest in enterprises that show a greater return is good business. The borrowing the Coalition is doing is simply to pay the high government expenses on welfare and public services caused by the slowing of the economy due to austerity. What Labour propose is to borrow to invest in these public services and halt further decline in disposable incomes, this will raise the tax take as domestic spending increases and pay for the borrowing. Eventually the Coalition policies will blow back in their faces exacerbated by the fall in oil revenues. At the moment our economic position is getting worse but they are, as you say, hiding it with smoke and mirrors.
Later I heard the Tory response to the Labour report pointing out that the NHS was suffering long term staffing difficulties due largely to under funding and bad management. The Tories say"a viable NHS is only possible with a strong economy". Quite correct but what is a 'strong economy'? They assume that we are on the right track to attaining this goal through increasing austerity and cuts. All the evidence points to the fact that this is totally wrong and that the present 'economic miracle' is deeply flawed, unbalanced and prey to larger global trends. This is the the problem which is at the root of present policies and cannot be addressed by the Tories because their DNA is directed towards a 19th century model of economics, the one that has failed us time and time again. Will they ever learn?

[Stanley]

We are now officially into the election campaign. All the parties are announcing their lines of attack today. It is going to be a rough and dirty ride....

[plaques]

More smoke and mirrors from the Tories. This time they appear to be getting into 'porkie' territory. The £21bn suggested as unfunded spending by labour has been strongly rebutted. The last two paragraphs of this article by the Financial Times says it all. If George Osborne's allegations cannot stand independent scrutiny then they should be totally ignored. To plead, as G Osborne is doing, that this isn't the right time for such a review speaks for itself. Unfortunately, the brainwashed will remain brainwashed.

Ref: Amid the claims and counter claims, Lord O’Donnell, the former head of the civil service, said it would be an “extremely good idea” to invite the independent Office of Budget Responsibility to audit spending plans of political parties — an idea Labour has been pushing to no avail.
Mr Osborne said it was something he would “look at” if he were still in government after the election. But the chancellor, brandishing his own audit of Labour’s spending plans, also said an independent review of the OBR concluded it was “not the right time” for the watchdog to start costing tax-and-spend proposals for political parties.

(From this it is not clear whether the OBR did the review or someone on their behalf.) More smoke I think!

[Stanley]

I agree totally P. I heard Gus O'Donnell say that as well but independent scrutiny is the last thing the Tories want at the moment. What struck me is that Labour's attack on the Tory handling of the NHS was credible (even some Tories admit that the last top-down reorganisation was a disaster) and the Shadow Health Minister stood up well to a roasting by John Humphrys on Today yesterday morning. Remember also that the spurious points raised in the 82 page Tory attack are largely instigated by the unpaid advisers form the big accountancy firms who have a vested interest in promoting private health care. This is a rotten system and should be prohibited for all parties.
The other thing that struck me was the fact that the Tories are relying on the old lie that Labour can't be trusted with the economy. This is dangerous ground on two counts. First, the Tories supported the deregulation of the banks and the subsequent bail-out. Second, there record on the economy in this parliament is shocking. I can't think of a single 'target' they have delivered on. Even the BofE says that the 'recovery' is unbalanced and fragile.
Interesting also that the Tories have turned their fire on Labour first and not UKIP. Now why could that be?

[Stanley]

Lots of heat and not much light being generated by the latest A&E figures for the NHS. A classic case of a long term, and very complicated, problem being used as a short term political football. The major problem of course is not primarily with A&E but with the erosion of care in the community for the elderly who are blocking beds in hospitals because there is no support for them at home. Even this is over-simplistic. Neither Tories or Labour are innocent of blame but of course in an election campaign nobody is going to admit their failings and we will be subjected to even more scare stories as the campaign proceeds.
I have a suspicion that while everyone's attention is focussed on this problem they are missing the main event. To quote Clinton, "It's the economy stupid!" The oil price falls even further to $51 a barrel. This massages the cost of living slightly but it is damaging UK tax receipts and destabilising the markets. The markets are already nervous because of the Greece election problem which could de-stabilise the Euro. The value of the Euro is dropping already and the big fear in the EU is deflation. The German led Central Bank is faced with the necessity to boost the economy with Quantitative Easing, something they have refused to do in the past. These factors are eroding the 'Economic Miracle' and I'm afraid that Wee Georgie isn't going to be able to ignore this between now and May. If the EU is seen to be in serious trouble this plays into the hands of UKIP. Cameron's back benchers will be attacking him internally and things could rapidly turn very nasty. I have no doubt that the Tories know this and they are happy to stoke the NHS controversy because it diverts attention form the general parlous state of the UK economy.

[Bruff]

We had cause to pitch up at A&E late last year and the treatment was exemplary.

My wife collapsed in the dining room at 6.45am with a ventricular tachycardia. The ambulance was here within 10mins, she was made comfortable and then we were off. Her heart rate was 290 in the ambulance, and she was in danger of arresting. All the medics were waiting at Arrowe Park and within 30mins she had been seen by an anaesthetist and A&E consultant and others and then anaesthetised and given emergency cardioversion to ‘shock’ the heart into a normal rhythm. She was then sent to the cardiac ward where other examinations were done. The following day she came home and is now under a team at Liverpool Heart and Chest (what was Broad Green), who are trying to get to the bottom of what caused it. I’ve mentioned before she has had heart problems, necessitating emergency open-heart surgery coming up 13 years ago. She’s pretty philosophical about it all, quite the stoic (in a good sense), and the specialist team at Liverpool are some of the best.

It’s difficult to know what to do about the current crisis in A&E. Seems to me it’s a function of the time of year (tho’ some periods in summer carry similar seasonal strains); an aging population; a ‘lack’ of resources for health and social care and the left hand not joined to the right hand; and last a lack of personal responsibility/knowledge by some. (I know Mr Farage will add ‘immigrants’ to that list, but that’s because he likes to tell you things are simple, being simple himself, but immigrants aren’t a problem here. Seriously, they aren’t).

Anyroads, not a lot we can do about seasonal and demographic issues. But we can have a think about more sensible and coordinated funding, as well as trying to impress on people the difference between an emergency and a predicament.

Richard Broughton

[Thomo]

Sadly it is now a fact that whilst many of us see a trip to A&E as the last option, including in the this the major part of the oft mentioned ageing population, there are many who see it as the first port of call. Some of the reasons given for being there beggar belief:- "I feel tired, my feet hurt, I have a headache", and then it goes to another level when babies become involved, the modern parent being just a tad capable of over re acting where little precious bundle is concerned, "Nappy Rash", or indeed any kind of rash is high on this list, closely followed by "throwing up" after feeding" and "the contents of said nappy are most disagreeable"! Spots (Acne) is another, and when you stack all of the self inflicted malaise attendants on top, it is clear where the problem lies. It is not the fault of the NHS or the Government at all, it is the behaviour of Joe Public. Just once in my 74,5 years I have been taken to A&E, with a piece of steel in my eye, I was seen immediately by the triage nurse and very soon after by a specialist who removed the offending item. In a nearly a lifetime of working in engineering I have had eye damage on several occasions, eight to my left eye and two to my right, in spite of wearing protective gear. The pain involved is severe and can last many days even after treatment, its knowing that it will get better that makes the difference.

[Bruff]

‘’…It is not the fault of the NHS or the Government at all, it is the behaviour of Joe Public’’

Hmmm. It’s difficult to see how the looming crisis in GP numbers is due the behaviour of Joe Public. The age profile of GPs meaning many will retire/cut back very soon, and General Practice being seen as an unattractive option for new Drs, means less GPs, increased pressure on GP appointments, and a consequent resort to A&E for ailments best looked at in the first instance by a GP.

Even some behaviours of Joe Public aren’t straightforward. The other week, the Citizens Advice reported on a survey showing that for young people, A&E/drop-in centre is the first choice and not the GP (yes, I’m not sure why Citizens Advice did this survey either, but there we go). Now, this might be evidence that young folk today simply lack the patience to wait for anything, and this is just another example. But as some others suggested, it was simply a reflection of the workplace today. Zero hours, instant availability for work, long commutes, long hours, inflexible employers all conspire to make a GP appointment between the hours of 7 and 7 impossible. Just pop into A&E or the drop-in at 9pm. And if the answer is to open GP surgeries longer, I refer you to the first point in the first paragraph.

And obesity and drink-related and smoking-related ill-health while demanding a level of personal responsibility are equally issues that Government can and some would argue should do something about.

I maintain this problem is a complex issue with many factors, like almost all ‘public policy’ problems are. Quite a lot of problems would be solved, or never arise in the first place, if this were more widely recognised I suspect.

I’ve been in casualty a few times. A smashed up leg playing rugby and a suspected slipped disc playing cricket. I’ve had 8 stitches in my head and six in my hand, the latter whilst cooking and being too cavalier with the knife (and yes, this was drink-related). I went over and knackered all my ankle ligaments in Central London, and I snapped my toe in two in the house (drink-related again). Last time I was there, I did my ankle ligaments again, missing the bottom stair (and again, drink-related). Now, folk might think I’m a right toper but I on each occasion had had at the most a couple of drinks. However, one is routinely asked in casualty whether one has had a drink and if you are honest and say yes, no matter how minimal the indulgence it’ll be marked down as drink-related. Useful background context for assessing statistics on drink-related admissions – one could be forgiven for believing they reflect solely the stereotypical roaring, often fighting, drunk.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

"I maintain this problem is a complex issue with many factors, like almost all ‘public policy’ problems are"
Exactly my point Richard. But most people are regarded as 'simple' by the politicians and if asked to make a short statement they over-simplify avoiding the factors which are down to their party. This means we get spurious 'debates' like the current one which is all to do with political advantage in the short term and not about long term answers.
Another example of over simplification in a sound byte for you, 'The funding of the NHS depends on having a sound economy'. On the face of it, blindingly obvious but.... nobody can say we had a 'sound economy' in 1945 when health and housing were made the priorities by the Atlee government. The key is the priority given to the spending. As long as we build mega aircraft carriers and then have to hire them out to the US because we haven’t planes to put on them or build new Trident systems and give spending on them priority over social infrastructure we shall continue to see a decline in the essentials to our lives. In the long term, investment in health, education and housing are the most important, it's significant that all these are seeing a decline in funding relative to the need. The hot spots of infant mortality are buried in the national statistics and ignored, same goes for child poverty, failing primary schools and food poverty. We need a new Beveridge Plan to plot the course over the next century not bum statistics about the 'economic miracle' which nobody at the grass roots can recognise and the consequences of which are building up huge problems for the future. Like the tip of an iceberg, the current A&E 'crisis' is an example of these pigeons coming home to roost. There will be many more of them in the years to come.

[Stanley]

I can't understand Cameron's logic (or lack thereof) when he says that the Greens should be allowed to participate in the TV debates and if they were excluded he would refuse to appear. I agree with the first part about the Greens if UKIP are allowed in but does anyone seriously think he could afford to refuse to appear? Imagine the political capital that would give his opponents. I think he should ensure his brain is in gear before he opens his mouth....
See THIS for evidence that some of the Tory advisers are thinking ahead and putting in contingency plans for the next parliament. When the proposed Tory cuts kick in one thing is certain, the unions will call strikes to protest against further erosion of wages. A ban on strikes unless supported by an impossibly high percentage of members will spike the union's guns. Of course this is in fact an attack on freedom and the unions have reacted and said as much. We are looking back to the darkest days of Thatcherite anti unionism.

[chinatyke]

...We are looking back to the darkest days of Thatcherite anti unionism.

In my opinion, Thatcher took the right course at that time when the unions were trying to bring the country to its knees. There was no sense in what the unions did, just bloody mindedness. They paid a high price for their failure. Instead of saying darkest days of Thatcherite anti-unionism try saying darkest days of Scargill madness. I remember a slogan painted on a wall at Huncoat. It read "Support the miners" and someone had added "from a rope". I also remember not being able to bring chemicals from Europe because all the barges coming down the Rhine were being used to carry coal destined for Britain. Coke was even being transported in shipping containers and curtain sided trailers. A lot came from Poland whilst officially the Polish miners declared their support of Scargill.

[Stanley]

It's a complicated subject China and I'll agree about some aspects of Thatcher's fight with the unions but not on the way she did it. Fear of organised labour is embedded in Tory DNA, look at Tonypandy and the General Strike....

[Stanley]

See THIS for the latest clues to Tory economic policy if they get into power again. Basically it's the same mistake they made in the 1920s when the mantra was 'sound money'. It was wrong then and it's wrong now. He talks about 'the legacy of debt' and promises that the cuts will be in services and no increased taxes. In other words he is looking at the wealthiest in the country not the poorest because they already have a legacy of debt caused by money being sucked out of the welfare system. Up to now pensioners like me have done well but all this is going to change. Estimates are that only 45% of pensioners will get the proposed increases. See THIS for a report on the effects of the changes. In addition to this there was a report this morning that more and more pensioners are using credit to supplement their income and this will force many into dodgy 'equity draw down' deals where they sell their house and get an annuity. Add this to the general rise in consumer debt.
All this points to increasing pressure on the lower 85% of the electorate. They are building up a 'legacy of debt' caused directly by cuts. Remember also that Osborne is talking about easing inheritance tax....
Meanwhile, the price of oil is causing even more global uncertainty. I heard a commentator this morning saying that there was no sign of any recovery in the price for a long time. He compared the position of investors in oil to that of investors in coal over the last thirty years. No word from the Treasury of how this is affecting the UK tax take but common sense tells us it must be falling.
Add all this into the mix of politics in the run up to the May election and I have never seen so many balls in the air at once. There are no certainties any longer....