OneGuyFromBarlick

I’ve mentioned this before, but in my view British industrial relations are too often characterised by bloody-minded and belligerent trade unions pitted against arrogant and bullying management with misplaced ‘entitlement’ running through both. There’s little evidence of any maturity on either side. If we could develop this maturity then we might stand a chance of the sort of sensible tripartite approaches that are common in some of the more enlightened countries in mainland Europe. Trade unions should have an absolutely key role in industrial and public policy as well as their being a major pillar of anywhere deigning to call itself a democracy. A quick scan of those places where union membership is/has been discouraged or actively banned will quickly illustrate the latter point.

Richard Broughton

As members here were mentioning dockers I happened to be reading something elsewhere that touched on the print unions and their powerful position until recent times.

I totally agree that there came a point where the unions had lost their way and were simply abusing power. I see traces of this surfacing today. Unfortunately the 'blame' for this can be attributed equally to both the unions and politics. As long as the unions are seen as 'the enemy' we will never see the levels of cooperation that can be glimpsed in countries like Australia where the unions often act as partners to government in the provision of essential services like sick pay, pensions for disability and legal support when needed. When it works like this it is society at its best.
Mention of Scargill and the Miner's Strike reminds me that whilst he was totally wrong in his tactics, he was totally right in his assessment of what was happening. We have learned since that the government did not act honourably and used their powers in very underhand ways not only to damage the strikes but also to pursue the figure heads long afterwards. Derek Hatton was a similar case.
See THIS for a Telegraph report on the fact that after nine months of wriggling on the hook Blair is to face parliament today to explain his role in the notorious 'on the run' letters which led to some perpetrators escaping justice. He is conducting a similar delaying campaign over the publication of Chilton.
The latest inflation figures are due out today. (LINK) This will be seized on by the Tories as good news on the economy. Partially true of course but due to the complicated nature of economics there may be more downside than up. The biggest factor is the fall in global energy prices trickling through to UK costs. On the face of it a good thing but two things strike me. As far as the poorest are concerned it means very little because they do not run cars and energy prices haven't fallen. Public transport costs will not fall immediately. What is falling is the tax receipts from oil production and this may be cancelling out all the benefits. In addition, it is falling inflation figures (into negative on average) in the EU leading to fears of the dreaded 'stagflation' when inflation falls in a largely stagnant economy. Investment falls with long term consequences and markets become very uneasy because inflation is the key to overall profit on stocks and shares.
So, while we will hear a lot about the largely illusory savings to consumers, we will hear nothing about the possible negative aspects of the situation.

We should switch to the German system but in Britain both sides `carry too much baggage'.

One of the reasons being given for the current low inflation figures is that the energy prices that came into play last year have now dropped out of the equation. So even if they have not reduced their prices the fact that they have not increased them reduces the overall statistics. The fact remains if you couldn't afford energy bills last year you are in a no better position this year although statistically you are better off. If you want to cause doubt about the real cost of living always refer to percentages rather than £s Stirling. Typical smoke and mirrors.

Quite right P, remember 'We're all in it together". I heard a foreign politician defending the fact that the government had sacked a lot of cleaners at short notice. When questioned about the justice of simply discarding these low paid workers he said "They are cleaners, not school teachers" I think that might sum up the Tory attitude to those below their station. In the 19th century the attitude of the ruling classes was that the poor were a nuisance, their only value was as factory or cannon fodder and the policy was to support them just enough to maintain the numbers for when they were needed. A blind eye was turned to the conditions of the poor until the advent of the possibility of the diseases ravaging them due to poor living conditions, dirty water supplies etc. triggered attempts to rectify this. As the initial investment was in the worst areas the wealthy protested against 'Municipal Socialism'. When recruits were called for service in the Crimea a high percentage were unfit and this triggered the 'Physical Efficiency' debate which resulted in further improvements in the living conditions of the poor and the advent of Municipal parks to encourage ''rational leisure'. When the Great War threatened the nation the working class became heroes but were discarded immediately the threat receded in the 1920s. The same thing happened in WW2 but the voting power of the workers and the reaction against a return to pre-war conditions brought in the Atlee government which, despite the country being bankrupt immediately addressed the problems of welfare, housing and health with results that transformed the lot of the poor. The 2008 crisis gave the 'ruling classes' a chance to reactivate the old Tory DNA and go on the attack against the feather-bedding of the poor. After all, they were a lower class.... That's what is happening now, an attempt to get back to the 'good old days', 'The rich man in his castle, the poor man at his gate'. All right, this is the ravings of an old social democrat, I admit that. But try to pick holes in it....
Later... Breaking news not on the web yet. The three party leaders, Clegg, Milliband and Farage have issued an identical letter stating that whether Cameron participates or not, they are prepared to go ahead with the TV debates. I told you he had made a mistake and it has backfired on him. How can one man dictate what appears on TV? Over to the TV companies.....
As I predicted, Osborne trumpets the fall in inflation to 0.5% as a triumph of Tory economic policies. He is wrong, nothing to do with his policies and not necessarily as good a thing as he makes out. It is expected to fall lower and it remains to be seen whether measure will have to be taken to combat it. There remains the affect of falling oil price on the tax take.... This is the elephant in the room he is ignoring.
See THIS for an account of Blair's defence against accusations over the no prosecution letters. I have no patience with this man.... Now get him in the hot seat over the delay in publishing Chilton.

Can we ever believe what we read in the newspapers. Here is a little section from the Mail-on-Line Link, Quote: [A rise of 0.5 per cent means an average basket of goods which cost £100 in December 2013 had risen to only £105 last month.] only a factor of ten out. of course this could just be a terminological inexactitude A phrase used by Winston Churchill.Link.

I always remember Harold Wilson saying that unemployment statistics were basically useless apart from their value as a general indicator of just one aspect of the jobs market. He pointed out that to a man who has lost his job, unemployment is running at 100%. It sounds like a statement of the bleeding obvious but is a good illustration that statistics mean nothing unless accompanied by a clear definition of the parameters being assessed. Once again, Read 'Healthy or Hungry Thirties ' by Dr Charles Webster, it's on the site....
The price of copper had fallen catastrophically over the last few weeks. Copper is widely regarded as a reliable indicator of the global economy. See THIS for a Guardian report.
I see that the ground is shifting in the dispute over the TV debates. Looks like a classic case of shooting yourself in the foot.....

As we move closer to the May election i listen to the litany of half lies and obfuscations designed to gain electoral advantage but completely ignoring the real world. The basis of the Tory economic policies remains the pursuit of the illusory 'sound money'. This the mistake they made in the Inter War years and they have learned nothing because in truth, balancing the budget and reducing debt at a time when money for revitalising the economy can be borrowed at close to zero percent interest. Debt interest costs us less that 3% of our total income, an almost insignificant amount compared with what we are losing by not borrowing to invest in our crumbling infrastructure, a policy that would immediately re-vitalise the economy.
So why pursue 'sound money'? Simple, it artificially massages asset values and ensures that the markets continue as usual. Any disruption of these two factors hits the wealthiest sectors of the economy directly and these sectors are the paymasters of modern government. This is economic illiteracy and sooner or later it will be clear but the question is will the truth dawn before the election? The Tory electioneering is geared to avoiding the truth emerging before they have (hopefully) regained power. The sad fact is that if they succeed it will eventually be seen as the greatest mismanagement of the economy since the dark days of the 1920s and will mean, if there is any justice, severe damage to Conservative credibility.
A secondary question is why Labour aren't hammering this lesson in reality home day after day. Are they so wrapped up in the minutiae of modern politics? Or are they ignorant of the real facts.... Whichever it is it is shameful and the worst form of Party Politics.
There are tiny indications that the realities are dawning on some very intelligent and perceptive economists but I doubt if it can trickle down fast enough to have the effect it should have.

One slightly encouraging trend I have noted is that recognition of the serious consequences of inequality is gradually increasing. Question is, can it gain enough traction to be a deciding factor in May? I doubt it. This is a shame because if we have another five years of the present policies there will be interesting times and we shall all suffer.

I see the Noble Lord Mandelson is poking his nose in again criticising Labour's Mansion Tax. Actually I agree with him but would prefer him and his ilk to keep stum. They had their chance and cocked it up miserably! What is really needed is the Piketty solution, a global wealth tax. Fat chance of getting agreement on that. Someone is going to have to bite the bullet and do it unilaterally ignoring the shouts of pain and threats to leave the country.... Same applies to regulating the financial institutions.... (LINK)
See THIS for an account of the downgrading of UK economic performance in 2014. Casts a cold light on Tory policies but is also dead in line with Piketty's forecast for ongoing growth in the 21st century.

See THIS for the latest developments in the Chilcot delay. Quite rightly, MPs are protesting against the latest decision that it will not be published until after the May election. It is a scandal.....
President Obama has evidently read Stiglitz and Piketty! See THIS BBC report of his state of the union speech. He is demanding action on inequality by increasing taxes on wealth. No chance of the Republican dominated senate and House of Representatives passing increased taxes of course but he is laying down the marker, all he can do at the moment. Interesting that some dyed in the wool Republicans are flagging up the problem of inequality but not advocating the obvious solution, a wealth tax. Little doubt that the grenade Piketty lobbed into economics is beginning to gain traction but it will be a slow process.
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest... The Greek General Election this week is expected to result in a new government who will reverse austerity measures and this could possibly lead to Greek Secession from the EU. Good for Greece in that they can devalue the Drachma and start the long climb back to some sort of relative prosperity. The big question is what effect does this have on the larger EU and the management of the Euro. The perceived view is that the European Central Bank will have to start serious Quantitative Easing. This will further depress the Euro. Many pigeons could be coming home to roost.....
Of course, all this will have an effect on the UK economy. It will be harder for us to export to our largest market. The elephant in the room is still interest rates, despite the best efforts of the BofE it may be inevitable.

Big day in Europe this morning. The ECB is expected to announce official quantitative easing today. I say 'official' because it is thought that back door support of bond prices has already been done. €500billion is expected to be the figure for buying up bonds and stimulating the stagnant EU economy which, overall, is in negative inflation. See THIS for the German view of the Greek General Election in Deutsche Welt this morning. This could be a historic moment in many ways. Could be the first Left wing government of the modern era and their policies could alter the relationship between Greece and the EU. All this matters because depending on what the Greeks do could be the trigger for a two speed Euro. It's another stage in the train wreck we have been watching ever since monetary union was forced through without the essential political union to support it.
See THIS for an account of how Lynton Yates, a UKIP Parliamentary Candidate came up with the original idea of banning all benefits claimants from driving and allowing cyclists to ride on the pavement. He says this will take 6 million cars off the road. The rebuttal department at UKIP immediately leapt in and pointed out that this is not party policy. Whether it is or not, Yates is their candidate and it makes you wonder what, if anything, is going on inside his head....

The closer we get to the election the more we will hear from the 'swivel eyed loon' wing of UKIP. There are only about three of them worth any kind of consideration. I don't think they will win many seats, and will self destruct afterwards.

UKIP’s culture spokesman has said schools should fly the Union flag and that there are too many languages spoken in schools and we should see fewer. On the latter, someone has helpfully noted this has been tried before. Welsh children used to be caned for speaking their native tongue. Still UKIP have got it all wrong here. That we speak English in these Islands is one of the reason so many folk want and are able to come here. If we made Welsh the official language, then we’d stop a huge chunk of immigration overnight!

On the flag, I think he can only mean in England. He might be U(nited) K(ingdom) IP, but this would go down like a lead balloon in parts of Ulster (particularly, given recent tensions over just this) and Scotland and well, the Welsh would likely to be none too happy as well.

Mr Farage has also come out on the fag packet issue, mindful perhaps that it is on these most of his policies are written. Plain packaging is apparently a gross interference in the free market. Fine. But if you are such a believer in the free market why would you want to stop employers employing who they wish and/or people moving to where the work is? This is what annoys me about UKIP and the Tories. They are fundamentally dishonest on the ‘common market’?

Richard Broughton

I think David is right about UKIP 'loons' becoming a regular target. Mind you, if the spin doctors were to mine the rich seam of Rotten Boroughs in Private Eye they'd find plenty of other examples. Most of them Tories....
Private Eye has a picture on the cover of World Leaders in Paris supporting free speech. Caption is 'Je suis charlatan' Multiple examples inside of politicians and policies which are dishonest and attack free speech here. Best example at the moment is Chilton of course.
I was wrong about the Central Bank, it was €1trillion to be invested in QE, not half a trillion.
See http://www.economist.com/news/finance-a ... etter-late in the Economist for an opinion on QE in Europe. Like many other opinions expressed yesterday it is down-beat. The Central Bank may have lost the initiative by dallying so long under German influence and there could be unexpected consequences. Whichever way you look at it QE is the last shot in the locker and is a very blunt instrument. There are still arguments as to exactly how QE helped in the US and UK. The suspicion is that any improvement seen in these countries has more to do with other external factors. It is still an unknown country....
See THIS for an account of the Institute for Fiscal Studies report on incomes. Predictably the Treasury have immediately issued as statement saying that these figures 'prove' that the wealthiest have contributed most towards the reduction of the deficit. However, as is always the case with statistics, their real meaning can be obscured. M reading of it is that if you regard the figures as an indication of what various groups have lost as a proportion of real income, the lower down the scale you go the greater the loss. That phrase 'the wealthiest' is misleading. By this the IFS seem to mean the upper middle classes, there are no indications of how the super rich have fared and all the other statistics point to the fact that they are drawing more and more money out of the system as their income from assets is at a higher rate than GDP. If anything this rate of increase is accelerating and there is no immediate prospect of this changing. I doubt if this will be trumpeted by the Tories.... The bottom line is that the poorest are getting poorer and under Tory policies they will be hit even harder in the next five years if they retain power. If you are poor in this country today the only prospect you face is penury.

Greek General Election tomorrow. The result could be very important to both the EU and the UK economies.....

The Greek polling stations are open.....

Stanley wrote:The Greek polling stations are open.....

The biggest danger may be that the EU and possibly the UK may have to adopt a more tolerant approach to the austerity programme. Something that the unelected plutocrats who are now running the failed system are trying to avoid at all costs. A more socialist approach in their minds equates to rabid communism taking power and influence away from the ruling 1%. If Syriza does come to power with an overall majority there will be months of scare stories about the future of the Greek economy. Finally there will be a very fuzzy deal where both sides will claim victory. Greece will continue to be part of the EU but the whole episode may be enough to frighten others from following suit. Overall, nothing will change unless France, of course, bites the bullet and refuses any more 'life saving' austerity that is gradually killing the patient.

Osborne trumpets the fall in inflation to 0.5% as a triumph of Tory economic policies

He didn't , he very cleverly chose his words to appear that the economic policies -> low inflation , but the actual wording ( which I don't have to hand , but was on radio and tv), actually did not take credit for the rate being a direct result of the policies. Why ? , to avoid being blamed by BoE for the undershoot on 2.5% inflation target. (the BoE were also later on implied that interest rates might have to rise to increase inflation).

I would increase inflation by increasing VAT to 25% on products containing (excessive) sugar {might be difficult to define accurately}

I'm not really in favour of wealth taxes, but there is a problem that investment income is taxed at different rates to earnings ( more so when Income Tax and NI taken into account ), I would definately like to see also higher Council Tax with additional bands , and lowering the lowest A Band as there are still plenty of properties inhabitable <£30 in parts of UK, indeed the old rates system was probably fairer overall. I wonder if VAT on purchases of Shares and Foreign currency would also increase tax takes (it may be that the input and output taxes would cancel out , but could control the micro-time trading and speculation ).

Given that oil prices are at a low, fuel duty could be slightly increased, and also it is time to invest in further energy saving programmes - manufacture of more efficient items for industry and domestic use should be slightly cheaper.

Syriza has won the most seats in the Greek election, see THIS for a BBC report. I'm not clear whether they have an absolute majority but will certainly be able to form a government. The significance of this is that they are the first anti-austerity party to contest a general election and win. Look back to the voting in the EU elections and the one thing that was clear was that the majority of voters were wanting change and they didn't get it. There is a distinct possibility that this result may encourage similar movements throughout Europe and I don't exclude the UK in the long run.
This is a good sign and I'm all in favour of it. The strongest movement in opinion in economics in the last five years has been that austerity sucking money out of the lowest 50 percentile of the population is the wrong way to tackle debt as it cripples domestic consumption which is the biggest driver of GDP. Nobel Prize winners Joseph Stiglitz and Thomas Piketty have backed this with major books attacking inequality and advocating a Global Wealth tax. Piketty gave two alternatives, the wealth tax or growing social unrest and in the long run I agree with him. If we are going to have revolt against the present outdated policies directed at saving the financial markets and the wealthy while grinding down the poorest I'd far rather see it at the ballot box than in violence on the streets.
If the EU fails it will not be because of Syriza, it will be because of the mistake made when an integrated currency was installed without first achieving integration of political systems. However, the present leaders of the EU will not admit this openly, they will blame the voters for being too simplistic and swinging towards what they see as 'the left'. This will be a further mistake, we need clear simple economic policies which reward work, support the needy in society and raise the disposable income of the lowest 50%. That will feed into increased production and make a far bigger contribution to budgets than crude austerity and growing inequality.
It will be interesting to see how Syriza applies power and how the EU reacts.... The best result will be if moderate change is achieved.....
Later at 08:10. The leader of Syriza is on Today as I write. Very impressive, he's calm, logical and perfectly clear about what he sees as the problem. He speaks excellent English and has a sense of humour. Simply on the evidence of this interview I'd say he is the right man for the job and it's no wonder the voters flocked to him. He's talking what I recognise as plain common sense unencumbered by any half truths. He says that forces have been unleashed in Europe by Austerity that are challenging the moral stance of austerity. I believe he is right and I wish him well. If he was in the UK I would seriously consider a vote for him·...

They were two seats short of an overall majority but will form the next government. Interesting as you say Stanley but I note that the media are playing on the "far left" card which will intimate to some raging Communism. I see it as a victory for potential sanity. It will be a rocky road and a steep hill to climb but lets see what a bit of socialist attitude does.

This is worth a read for some background information.

Greece

"This is to the extent that tax evasion has been described by Greek politicians as “a national sport” - with up to €30 billion per year going uncollected"

Not being a political academic, and more inclined to use my vote on whom I believe is the best person for the job regardless of that persons fundamental political beliefs, I am not as happy for the Greeks as some. The new leader of their government has convinced the people of Greece that his party can cure the countries problems, I feel that he has more faith in his magic wand than "Harry Potter" has in his. Greece may be one of the oldest civilisations on Earth, yet was never a truly industrial one. You will not find many items in the stores labelled "Made in Greece" apart from perhaps Feta Cheese. Austerity is universally unpopular for whatever reasons, and often follows spending money on unwise speculation, when the repayment is given less consideration than that of the good intentions. If what is planned for Greece does not work, then "What" happens next!

Have you listened to him?
What interests me is that most of the comment isn't about an electorate that decided they wanted a new way to run things but comments based solely on economics or as Ian points out the 'far left' card used pejoratively. It was a 'far left' government working with a bankrupt economy that worked the miracles of 1945, look to 1920 for what a 'far right' administration did in similar circumstances.. I'm not saying that Syriza will do the same but they are using the same principles. Look at the EU and the UK for what concentration on money and markets does for the poorest and contrast that with the lot of the capital holders. Then ask yourself where the morality and ethics have gone. My opinion is that Syriza is the first concrete example we have seen of popular reaction to the inequality plague of the 21st century and I wish them well. (Stiglitz and Piketty will be watching them with interest....)
Later at 06:00. I see the Mail is describing the promised Tory cap on benefits as an attack on the work shy.... That just about sums it up.
The Italian premier has come out in support of Syriza's attitude towards the EU imposed austerity. He agrees it was to fast and hard and crippled the country. Whether he is right or wrong, the fact that another Mediterranean country is giving support to Greece is not a good sign for the wealthier EU countries.