OneGuyFromBarlick

Looks like the Mail share my reading of the situation

"Pfizer warned today there is 'no data' to show a single dose of its coronavirus vaccine provides long-term protection, after the UK scrapped its original jab rollout plan.

The UK medical regulator is now recommending Covid jabs are given in two doses three months apart, rather than over the intended four-week period, to allow millions more people to be immunised over a shorter time period.

The strategy will apply to both Pfizer/BioNTech's vaccine and the newly approved jab by Oxford/AstraZeneca, despite limited data around the effectiveness of the initial doses. "

Figures quoted on the news this morning, suggest that the first jab gives around 70% protection and the second jab ( 12 weeks later) increases that percentage to about 80%.
If depends how you look at it. If you were given those figures as a survival rate, bet you would grab them with both hands.

David, Yes, I like the lady on the St Agur advert....
I only do two shops, the greengrocer's and the Co-op. I like to see what I am buying and not have substitutes. I don't think either are high risk the way I use them. Besides, those two shops are the high light of my social interaction on a regular basis. Must care for my mental health!
PS. Just had a text message from Matt Hancock telling me to shield immediately.

This made me smile when I saw the headline.

A young lady in Belfast caught the covid virus and made the comment...
"No one tells you how tired you will get, walking down the stairs is tough. I don't think people realise how serious and contagious it is, I am still getting over it and I am on day 12."
She said she is lucky she didn't have to go to hospital and could remain at home with her children, despite the virus making her "feel 80".

Spare a thought for some of the OG contributors and readers who have been living being 80+ for some years.

More about the Pfizer vaccination, more conflicting accounts on it initial effectiveness. Reuters. An extract is shown here....

(Reuters) - A nurse in California tested positive for COVID-19 more than a week after receiving Pfizer Inc's vaccine, an ABC News affiliate reported bit.ly/2L8iBel on Tuesday, but a medical expert and the U.S. drug maker said the body needs more time to build up protection.

Pfizer “will review all available information on this case and all reports of any confirmed diagnosis following vaccination,” the drug maker said in a statement to Reuters.

“Based on our Phase 3 safety and efficacy study, the vaccine provides some protection against COVID-19 within about 10 days of the first dose and substantially boosted after the second dose, supporting the need for a 2-dose vaccination series”, it said.



Stick to the rules we have agreed to is my simple logic.

I'm as confused now as you are, Tripps. I've been seeing and hearing different explanations and reports about the timing of doses, some of it contradictory. It also gets difficult to follow when one moment they're referring to the vaccines by the names of their developers and the next moment the names of their manufacturers. Normally all this would get done by scientists, medics and regulators working it out together and then the conclusions would be made public. At present all the raw detail is being thrown at the public which just creates confusion.

There's surprise here that Somerset as been put in Tier 4 but the surrounding counties are all left in Tier 3. Infection numbers in Somerset are low and trickling along, not rising fast as in many other places. Most people here thought there would have to be stronger controls but they expected it to be a national lockdown.

Tizer wrote: ↑31 Dec 2020, 10:46 There's surprise here that Somerset as been put in Tier 4 but the surrounding counties are all left in Tier 3. Infection numbers in Somerset are low and trickling along, not rising fast as in many other places. Most people here thought there would have to be stronger controls but they expected it to be a national lockdown.

How many hospital beds are available in Somerset compared to surrounding counties?

May I remain confused, if , in England, A total of 232,169 people tested positive for coronavirus in England at least once in the week to 23 December, according to the latest NHS Test and Trace figures. Is this equivalent (though obivously from this I would expect 15,000 hospitalisations and 3 to 6000 deaths if the numbers are accross the age spectrum). of 232K vacinations in a week. Additionally , why , depending on social interactions (and I know people are not wearing masks or not wearing them correctly or in the appropriate way), are numbers continuing at the same, if not greater, amount, if people generally are within social groups - (though I would still maintain it is the continuing of schooling that is the greatest driver), as if it is approx 200000 people over 40 weeks is pushing 8million whom have been infected - though we could deduct the false positives - maybe 10% of that, but it starts to be questionable which genetic stage variations in the virus actually allow for re-infection. In short, with an effective vacine, is Easter, Summer or September 2021 the time when the elderly and vulnerable are appropriately protected, when life can return to an aspect of normality (let exclude indoor venues) , and life back to more normal (bar say significant international travel) ?

Big Kev wrote: ↑31 Dec 2020, 11:02

Tizer wrote: ↑31 Dec 2020, 10:46 There's surprise here that Somerset as been put in Tier 4 but the surrounding counties are all left in Tier 3. Infection numbers in Somerset are low and trickling along, not rising fast as in many other places. Most people here thought there would have to be stronger controls but they expected it to be a national lockdown.

How many hospital beds are available in Somerset compared to surrounding counties?

That's a good question, Kev. I've searched but couldn't find anything showing present figures by county. I found only one useful source, a BBC article from 19th December but it shows data by region, expressed as % of beds occupied. The whole range is only about 3 percentage points and the south-west is around the halfway mark in the range. That's about half a point above the England average and slightly above the north-west, Yorkshire and Midlands. But the figure for the South West will include Bristol, Bath, Exeter, Plymouth etc whereas the county of Somerset doesn't have any cities or big towns.

No big cities or towns could equate to no big hospitals either. Less beds and the NHS could be overwhelmed locally with only a small increase in infections. That's my reasoning anyway

Cannot remember where weston-super-mare is but that would take some from Cheddar, and areas around that , and we know that hospital has been under strain through the year ( dont forget too the proportion by age in areas can affect calculations)

Stay sane and carry on.

.

Brilliant! Reminds me of Victor Borge.....
On a more serious note the daily figures yesterday are a catastrophe and the effects of Xmas and New year haven't come through yet in the figures.
One fact that crops up continually and is not mentioned is the fact we have many fewer beds and nurses than we used to have. Can someone in authority please take notice!?

Big Kev wrote: ↑31 Dec 2020, 17:05 No big cities or towns could equate to no big hospitals either. Less beds and the NHS could be overwhelmed locally with only a small increase in infections. That's my reasoning anyway

After a bit of thought Mrs Tiz and me came to the same conclusion, Kev. Then shortly after we heard news on the radio that hospital beds in the south-east are full and new covid patients are being transported to hospitals in the south-west. I did a search and saw that they `could also be sent to Yorkshire'. Patients from Kent are being transferred to Plymouth. I suppose folk in the south-west and north will just have to stay fit and healthy. Happy New Year everyone!

Tizer wrote: ↑01 Jan 2021, 09:21

Big Kev wrote: ↑31 Dec 2020, 17:05 No big cities or towns could equate to no big hospitals either. Less beds and the NHS could be overwhelmed locally with only a small increase in infections. That's my reasoning anyway

After a bit of thought Mrs Tiz and me came to the same conclusion, Kev. Then shortly after we heard news on the radio that hospital beds in the south-east are full and new covid patients are being transported to hospitals in the south-west. I did a search and saw that they are also being taken to Yorkshire. I suppose folk in the south-west and north will just have to stay fit and healthy. Happy New Year everyone!

It would be interesting to know how the hospital admission figures are reported. If they're shipping patients to other parts of the country which part of the country are they 'counted' as I wonder?

Drastic infection rates require drastic measures. On a personal level the change in plan to extend the interval between vaccine doses from 3 weeks to 12 would have minimal effect on my life style. My only concern is that I have been enrolled into a country wide experiment that neither of the vaccine makers were advocating. Instead of moving about my business with an empty Russian roulette revolver it now has one chamber loaded. Lets hope it turns out OK for the greater good but as Mrs P said "they can't get anything right first time can they?" Rather takes all the fun out of a works trip to the brewery.

Big Kev : - Home Address is taken for deaths for NHS , dont know if ONS use the same or record both.
One of the vaccine 2 shot versions said AT LEAST (x Weeks apart) , dont know if the other was more prescriptive in the weeks distancing.

Whyperion wrote: ↑01 Jan 2021, 12:09 Big Kev : - Home Address is taken for deaths for NHS , dont know if ONS use the same or record both.

Aye, but my understanding is a large part of the reasoning, for putting a particular area into a particular tier level, is based on hospital admissions (and subsequently available beds). If, for example, Covid-19 infected patients from Kent are moved to hospitals in Yorkshire; are they added to the admission stats for Yorkshire or Kent?

So what happens when all the beds are full? Hotels as overspill? Someone will have suggested it already.

The London centric farce has reared its ugly head again this morning. All London schools will remain closed, due to infection rates, but any other areas in tier 4 have to open. Surely being in a tier 4 area is an indication of high infection rates...

I wonder what the difference between a London tier 4 and the 'rest of the country' tier 4 is.

I'm with you Kev, it makes no sense. One rule for them and another for the surfs up North.

Looks like Guinea pig time for those up norf. "They've still got some empty hospital beds so give it a run and see what happens"

Good news from the Oxford team, by mid January they will be producing 2 million doses a week. The only problem on the horizon is that it will need a standing army of around 3,300 trained personnel to keep this level of vaccination going. Then after 12 weeks the first timers will arrive for their second dose. Either they will have to up the vaccine output, recruit more vaccinators or suffer a hiatus in the programme.
In two weeks time Hancock's answer will probably be " I deal with that problem when it comes"

Big Kev wrote: ↑02 Jan 2021, 09:06 I wonder what the difference between a London tier 4 and the 'rest of the country' tier 4 is.

The London tier 4 get ventilators that provide oxygen spiked with nitrous oxide to make up for the cocaine and champagne that they're missing out on?

Tizer wrote: ↑02 Jan 2021, 11:01

Big Kev wrote: ↑02 Jan 2021, 09:06 I wonder what the difference between a London tier 4 and the 'rest of the country' tier 4 is.

The London tier 4 get ventilators that provide oxygen spiked with nitrous oxide to make up for the cocaine and champagne that they're missing out on?

plaques wrote: ↑02 Jan 2021, 10:50 Good news from the Oxford team, by mid January they will be producing 2 million doses a week. The only problem on the horizon is that it will need a standing army of around 3,300 trained personnel to keep this level of vaccination going. Then after 12 weeks the first timers will arrive for their second dose. Either they will have to up the vaccine output, recruit more vaccinators or suffer a hiatus in the programme.
In two weeks time Hancock's answer will probably be " I deal with that problem when it comes"

Do we have details on the number of healthcare professionals who administer the flu vaccine every year. There must be enough of them to cover...

Just had a Google, there were 15.3 million flu jabs administered 2019-20 potentially we may have enough people to do it. Drs surgeries are very good with the 'conveyor belt' vaccine program.