Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Stanley]

Hancock seems to think that whatever that figure is it will be elastic.

[plaques]

Just had a Google, there were 15.3 million flu jabs administered 2019-20 potentially we may have enough people to do it. Drs surgeries are very good with the 'conveyor belt' vaccine program.

Mrs P just had a chat with her friend. Blackburn Hospital covid team administered 900 vaccine in one day. Didn't say how many people were in the team. On the black side, one of the Doctors on the covid ward died with the virus. A high price to pay for looking after people.

[Whyperion]

Despite the adverts (and news reports) for if you have a non-covid illness do not hesitate to see treatment , an elderly acquaintence I have been informed today had a water infection, was taken into hospital (london) , caught covid (presumably from the hospital - his son in law who is a community transport driver also has tested positive but so far as I know they had not been in direct contact) - and died last night.


Back to statistics, where I feel happier. It now seems that the under-purchasing of vaccines (at a supposed higher price than the EU negiotiated) has caused the health secretary / pm etc to say the first doses should be spread around, rather than used as the follow up ones. While one of the vaccines states its 2nd does works no earlier than the minimum advised gap, I am not aware of a maximum time gap , nor if the other one has any recommend gap than that generally stated in the original tests and approval documentation. One would have thought that under protection would encourage more viral changes avoiding incomplete protection and that scientifically and medically unwise to deviate from the present approvals. There is also thought on social media that once the 15million older/vulnerable are covered (30 million doses), then thats it folks, everyone else fend for yourself - which contradicts some of the earlier headline promises of Hancock and the PM that I cannot recall as now. However if the full , say 90million doses for 45million people programme can be achieved It wont be done by April, June or barely September if 2million a week are arrived out within a fortnight.

[Big Kev]

There's one main reason why infection rates are high, regardless of how infectious it is, it's because there are selfish idiots who can't do as they are asked.

Covid in Wales: Beauty spots 'busy' despite lockdown rules.
On Saturday, North Wales Police said officers had "turned away" people who wanted to walk up Snowdon in breach of stay-at-home rules, including some some from Milton Keynes and London.

BBC News

[plaques]

How to get people totally confused? Answer.. Change the rules half way through the exercise. I've just been told that an acquaintance in Northumberland has been instructed to get her second Pfizer vaccination on monday.

(Some 616,933 people were given the Pfizer/BioNTech jab between 8 December and 20 December according to official Government figures. In England 521,594 people received the vaccine with 56,676 in Scotland, 22,595 in Wales and 16,068 in Northern Ireland.)

Time has moved on and this figure could now be 1 million. If mixing and matching is not recommended ...

After questions were raised about the risks, Dr Mary Ramsay, head of immunisations at PHE, told Sky News that mixing is not recommended and should only happen on "rare occasions"."We do not recommend mixing the COVID-19 vaccines - if your first dose is the Pfizer vaccine you should not be given the AstraZeneca vaccine for your second dose and vice versa," she said.

If this is so then there are two options. 1) Continue to give a second dose to all those who have already received the first one. This will minimise confusion and remove the requirement to cancel appointments. 2) Cancel appointments and re-schedule them for date in the future, put subsequent vaccinations on a 12 week interval until the 15 million is reached. It looks very much we are going for option 1.

I know what I would be doing but left to Matt Hancock anything could happen.

[Stanley]

I heard someone on the radio yesterday say it was time to slash all the present regulatory differences and simply impose a universal lock down. I have some sympathy with that.
Did anyone hear the lady doctor trying to rejoin the profession to help with Covid relating the bureaucratic hoops she was being put through by the NHS?

[PanBiker]

There's one main reason why infection rates are high, regardless of how infectious it is, it's because there are selfish idiots who can't do as they are asked.

Covid in Wales: Beauty spots 'busy' despite lockdown rules.
On Saturday, North Wales Police said officers had "turned away" people who wanted to walk up Snowdon in breach of stay-at-home rules, including some some from Milton Keynes and London.

BBC News

There was an appeal last night by the police to stay away from Pendle Hill and it's approaches Apparently there was a problem with an emergency ambulance not being able to attend a seriously ill person due to the abandoned vehicles on the roads. Many of whom were tackling the hill.

[Tizer]

Did anyone hear the lady doctor trying to rejoin the profession to help with Covid relating the bureaucratic hoops she was being put through by the NHS?

Yes, I read it in The Times on Saturday where they printed the long check list of requirements and now the BBC has picked it up...
Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort' LINK
Here's the list of documents to be read and responded too. Many qualified medics who had already volunteered have not had a response...

The checklist to become an NHS vaccinator:
Recognising and managing anaphylaxis
Resuscitation, level 2
Safeguarding adults, level 2
Safeguarding children, level 2
Vaccine administration
Vaccine storage
Health, Safety and Welfare, level 1
Infection Prevention and control, level 2
Introduction to Anaphylaxis
Legal aspects of vaccination
Moving and Handling, level 1
Preventing radicalisation, level 1
Conflict resolution, level 1
Core knowledge for Covid-19 vaccinators
Covid mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 (Pfizer BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine)
Data security awareness, level 1
Equality, Diversity and Human rights, level 1
Fire safety, level 1
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Ian, at Snowdon they had to tow away a car that had been parked and left on the inside of a blind bend!

[Tizer]

I see that a Chinese official claims that the covid-19 pandemic didn't originate only in China but started in other parts of the world too. I haven't seen any evidence to back up his claim and it sounds strange. I'd have expected genetic testing to have shown whether that were true or false but we now have different strains so it's not quite so straightforward. I wonder if the virologists would say that all the detected variants must have descended from the one said to have jumped from animal to human in Wuhan? I would find it hard to believe that identical or even near identical strains could pop up around the world at the same time.

But...coincidentally I recently read a 2015 report that previous major virus pandemics seemed to have followed La Nina climate events. A coincidence perhaps? Or have the consequences of La Nina in some way made it easier for these pandemics to start? The researchers looked at various possibilities and came up with this - it's only speculation but worth thinking about. La Nina events cause cooling of the Pacific waters and much stronger winds across the Pacific Ocean. These effects cause changes in the weather further afield - and one of these effects is that birds migrate by different routes and may be found outside their normal zones. We know about `bird flu' and we had a La Nina event in 2018/19 so is it possible that birds could be carrying covid-19 around the world, giving the impression that the virus is originating in more than one region. Is Kent having such high covid numbers because birds migrate across the channel? Watch out for bird droppings!

[Big Kev]

I do like a good theory especially if they sound plausible.

[Stanley]

The best theory I have heard of late is that we should lock down as much as we can and get the vaccines out.

[PanBiker]

Boris is philandering with peoples lives with his indecision. On the one hand he warns that tighter measures are probably unavoidable but does not act. Straight back to the may be needed in the future rubbish. Do it NOW. Close all the schools and enforce a complete lock down with curfew until February. Punitive measures as elsewhere for those that wont comply, (in Indonesia they compel non mask wearers to grave digging duties for the victims). I would make our morons work in the morgues in hospital! Time to get real, all the kids will be in the same boat so none will be disadvantaged. If it was of such concern they could catch up after the event with Saturday morning school if there was a will.

[Tizer]

Matt Hancock on the radio this morning said the new variant in the UK spreads extremely fast because it needs a much smaller infective dose - in other words, it spreads more like influenza which is notorious for its infectivity. Virologists and epidemiologists have always said that what they fear most is a virus that spreads as effectively as influenza but has a greater impact on health and mortality. Then he said the new South African variant is even worse! This makes social distancing, wearing masks and avoiding contact even more important. Stay safe!

[PanBiker]

Yes, it looks like we are on a downward spiral with over 50,000 new cases everyday for a week now. Another 350 - 400 dead as a result. This is not the doctors and nurses fault. It is quite clearly at the behest of the governments indecision in acting quickly. Nearly a year now since discovery and over 70,000 dead. I would say that is an emergency by any measure which requires emergency action. Something Boris seems incapable of ordering.

[Stanley]

Quite right Ian. All of the statistics point the same way and this lot seem incapable of learning lessons. Remember Patton, get there fustest with the mostest.

[PanBiker]

Boris thinks he is Churchill but acts like Chaimberlain.

[Tripps]

Is 'fustest' fastest or firstest ?

I can't help musing how much better off we'd be, if Bumbling Boris was not in charge, and Jeremy Corbyn had won the election. We'll never know.

[PanBiker]

Boris is to announce something after a cabinet meeting at 8pm tonight. What's betting it will all be his idea rather than being forced by other nations and pressure from all sides including members of his own party.

[Big Kev]

Not sure what happened to being proactive. They should have locked everything down a while ago, it's not something that would be popular but it needs to be done. Relying on the common sense of some of the British populace leaves a lot to be desired...

[Tizer]

At least Keir Starmer can see what's needed...
`Covid: Keir Starmer in 'back to March' lockdown call' LINK
`Boris Johnson must bring back "the spirit of March" to get control of coronavirus in England, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said. Sir Keir said the virus was "out of control" and a second "national lockdown" - including the closure of all schools - was needed. The PM had to give a firm "stay at home message", Sir Keir told the BBC. Mr Johnson will make a televised address at 20:00 GMT to set out further restrictions amid surging cases. It comes as Scotland announced a legal requirement to stay at home from midnight. Sir Keir said Labour would support any move towards tighter restrictions in England, but urged the prime minister to "stop dithering" and take action. The Labour leader said it was "inevitable" that schools would need to close. "There is complete chaos, with parents not knowing what is going on. We need to create space for vaccine now, to be rolled out safely. "The virus is out of control. We have got to get it back under control, The more we delay, the worse it will be. The more we delay, the longer schools will be closed."...
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This is a `must listen' episode of Tim Harford's `How to Vaccinate the World' series. He interviews a man who really knows about pandemics and has some strong views (mirroring my own) about the lack of action from politicians over the years....
`Larry Brilliant' LINK
`Epidemiologists don’t often hang out with rock stars, and not many of them can say they’ve played a part in eradicating a disease as deadly as smallpox. But Larry Brilliant isn’t your run of the mill public health official. He’s been warning about the dangers of a pandemic for years, and now that one is upon us, Tim Harford sat down to talk with him about how the world has handled the pandemic of 2020 and what we can hope for in 2021.'

[Big Kev]

Boris is to announce something after a cabinet meeting at 8pm tonight. What's betting it will all be his idea rather than being forced by other nations and pressure from all sides including members of his own party.

Screenshot_20210104-182640_Metal Pro.jpg

[Big Kev]

You were right Ian, I believe he did actually say 'the devolved nations agree with me'

[Whyperion]

The PM says the weeks ahead "will be the hardest yet".

"But I really do believe we are entering the last phase of the struggle because with every jab that goes into our arms we are tilting the odds against Covid and in favour of the British people," he says.

"Thanks to the miracle of science, not only is the end in sight but we know exactly how we are going to get there."
- this does appear to be the PM speaking mainly to anti-vaxers, expect to see WW2 adverts with needles etc coming soon
-- BBC also reports there is a shortage of glass bottles to put the vaccine in ( are not a lot of glass packaging now made in France compared to England?)

BBC - The prime minister says he "completely understands the inconvenience and distress" the disruption to education will cause parents and pupils.
But he says the government has been doing "everything in our power to keep schools open” because of the importance of education to children’s life chances.

"The problem is not that schools are unsafe for children," he says, adding that children are still very unlikely to be severely affected even by the new variant of Covid.
But he says schools may act as "vectors for transmission", causing the virus to spread between households

Apart from managing to say two fairly contadictory things at once , the point about Schools being places where virus is moved into households is what I have been saying since September. (I think Starmer was saying much the same too)

Experts though seemed divided on the role of children and schools in spreading the disease, which seems strange not to have a reported consensus on that.

[Whyperion]

Matt Hancock on the radio this morning said the new variant in the UK spreads extremely fast because it needs a much smaller infective dose - in other words, it spreads more like influenza which is notorious for its infectivity. Virologists and epidemiologists have always said that what they fear most is a virus that spreads as effectively as influenza but has a greater impact on health and mortality. Then he said the new South African variant is even worse! This makes social distancing, wearing masks and avoiding contact even more important. Stay safe!

Some report - on the BBC - that the SA variant also has a protein variation making it more difficult for existing anti-bodies to stick (does such a variation exist on other viruses like more general cold ones being a reason for re-infections ?) Its also not going to be straightforward to trigger anti-bodies.

Again the PM managed to get double message (or backside covering) into his speech

from BBC Website
The PM says the weeks ahead "will be the hardest yet".
"But I really do believe we are entering the last phase of the struggle because with every jab that goes into our arms we are tilting the odds against Covid and in favour of the British people," he says.
"Thanks to the miracle of science, not only is the end in sight but we know exactly how we are going to get there."
==========
"But if our understanding of the virus doesn’t change dramatically once again, if the rollout of the vaccine programme continues to be successful, if deaths start to fall as the vaccine takes effect, and, critically, if everyone plays their part by following the rules, then I hope we can steadily move out of lockdown, reopening schools after the February half term and starting, cautiously, to move regions down the tiers."

So we should remain cautious about the timetable ahead," he adds.

So we know where the end is, except it might not be there, and we will arrive when we think we will, unless the timetable is changed by the virus.
Sorry for the optimism

[Whyperion]

Yes, it looks like we are on a downward spiral with over 50,000 new cases everyday for a week now. Another 350 - 400 dead as a result. This is not the doctors and nurses fault. It is quite clearly at the behest of the governments indecision in acting quickly. Nearly a year now since discovery and over 70,000 dead. I would say that is an emergency by any measure which requires emergency action. Something Boris seems incapable of ordering.

I think I said by the end of 2020 it would be about 100,000 dead. With non-covid cases occuring in death that would not have otherwise happened and a few other mis-reported I dont think I will be far off.