POLITICS CORNER

[Tardis]

According to the Lancashire telegraph the Lib Dems are flirting with both the Labour and Tory parts of Pendle Council in a bid to form an administration.

Shame really, because it probably needs Labour and Tory to join together to actually ensure that it encompasses all the borough, and 5 of the 12 Lib Dems are from Barnoldswick which skews things a little

[Stanley]

The thing that strikes me about all marriages is that they are an artificial public acknowledgement of a relationship. What started as an informal but efficient hand-fastening ceremony in public to demonstrate commitment was adopted and formalised by the church as a way of controlling converts and was recognised by the state because it was a handy way of codifying property settlements for legal clarity. It is not something sacred rooted deep in religious belief but a legal state like citizenship. As such I am forced to wonder what the hell it's got to do with anyone what the gender of the participants is. If making gay marriage legal helps the participants lead settled lives inside a legal structure this can only be good. It's not my bag but this is no reason for me to object.
Interesting day in politics yesterday. For once Millibean was dead right, nothing in the Queen's Speech to give any comfort to the hard-pressed. Nothing concrete in the Families Bill bout care in the community and Lords Reform is only there because it is a Libdem demand on which the future of the Coalition depends. The Farmers shouldn't cheer too much about the appointment of a 'Supermarkets Regulator', I can't see the politicians suddenly changing tack on supporting Big Business.
Cameron had to do a complete U-turn on the aircraft for the new carriers. A year ago he said the Labour choice of the SVTOL version of the F35 Joint Strike Fighter was 'obviously wrong' and plumped for the F35C which requires runways on land and Catapults and retrieval systems at sea. (A major £2billion modification to the ships). Now he has seen the light and changed back to the STVOL version. BAE are OK, they're being paid to make the F35C, build the carriers and modify them for the catapult and retrieval systems. There is another problem, BAE was hacked and the new Chinese J20 is a dead ringer for the F35 and being made for less money. Nobody mentioned this yesterday. See this week's Private Eye for all the details. The Telegraph publicised a leaked document last week that blew this open, those nice Barclay Brothers.....
I checked my version of the EU crisis with my favourite economist Martha and she agrees entirely with my Keynesian view but pointed out that I had missed the connection with Karl Marx whom Keynes admired. She is right of course and I apologise. Marx forecast many of the ills that beset us now in 'Das Kapital'. I wonder if the Tories realise this? Perhaps they should take a sabbatical and go and read some history.
I watched Michael Portillo's programme on the EU crisis last night. Interesting collection of views, pity it was made before the recent elections. The thing that struck me was that the 'haves' in Germany were all in favour of the 'sound money/monetarist' solution (The Greeks should work harder) and the 'have-nots' favour the Keynesian/deficit financed approach. The reason this struck me as odd was that the 'haves' are in the position they are now because it was deficit finance funding that dragged them out of the hole after WW2, remember the Marshall Plan? Perhaps they should read the history as well. The most down to earth view came from a financial manager in Frankfurt. He agreed that Greek entry to the Euro-zone had been fiddled and everyone knew the flaws but ignored them for the greater scheme of the Euro. The pigeons are coming home to roost and his opinion was that the bullet should be bitten. Greece should leave the Euro and this was the most likely outcome. All good news for Portillo because he is a sound money Tory but give him his due, he managed to keep this under control.
Meanwhile, the Greek markets fell to a twenty year low yesterday. Tin hats on Lads!
PS. Teresa had her knuckles rapped by the European court yesterday when they confirmed that she had got the date wrong.

[Tardis]

Bookies have today announced they will no longer take bets on Greece leaving the Euro

[Tardis]

Bookies no longer taking bets on Euro surviving

[Tardis]

Interesting speech by Michael Gove today, trying to explore this plurality:

Armando Iannucci, David Baddiel, Michael McIntyre, Jack Whitehall, Miles Jupp, Armstrong from Armstrong and Miller and Mitchell from Mitchell and Webb were all privately educated. 2010’s Mercury Music Prize was a battle between privately educated Laura Marling and privately-educated Marcus Mumford. And from Chris Martin of Coldplay to Tom Chaplin of Keane – popular music is populated by public school boys. Indeed when Keane were playing last Sunday on the Andrew Marr show everyone in that studio – the band, the presenter and the other guests – Lib Dem peer Matthew Oakeshott, Radio 3 Presenter Clemency Burton-Hill and Sarah Sands, editor of the London Evening Standard – were all privately educated.

Indeed it’s in the media that the public school stranglehold is strongest. The Chairman of the BBC and its Director-General are public school boys. And it’s not just the Evening Standard which has a privately-educated editor. My old paper The Times is edited by an old boy of St Pauls and its sister paper the Sunday Times by an old Bedfordian. The new editor of the Mail on Sunday is an old Etonian, the editor of the Financial Times is an old Alleynian and the editor of the Guardian is an Old Cranleighan. Indeed the Guardian has been edited by privately educated men for the last sixty years… But then many of our most prominent contemporary radical and activist writers are also privately educated.

George Monbiot of the Guardian was at Stowe, Seumas Milne of the Guardian was at Winchester and perhaps the most radical new voice of all Laurie Penny of the Independent – was educated here at Brighton College. Now I record these achievements not because I wish to either decry the individuals concerned or criticise the schools they attended. Far from it. It is undeniable that the individuals I have named are hugely talented and the schools they attended are premier league institutions

I do note that Polly isn't in there, probably because she was away at her Tuscan Villa no doubt

[Stanley]

He didn't mention me either. Stockport Grammar School was a member of the Public Schools Council. So what? Perhaps he could follow with another speech explaining why it seems that you have to be a millionaire and well-connected to be on the front bench.
The stock markets are trying to work out how J P Morgan swung from a $5.4billion projected annual profit to a $2billion projected loss in less than two months.
See this LINK for cheerful news about the state of the Spanish Banks and the Euro. Interesting times!
Coulson's evidence at Leveson yesterday was very damaging. Quite evident that no positive vetting was done on him or if it was it was useless. He concealed the fact that he had £40,000 of Newscorp shares while he was at Downing Street. This could possibly be only the start of Dave's woes, his best friend Rebekah is on the stand today and one wonders how friendly she is feeling towards Dave now that she is on her own and her other best friends have abandoned her. I wonder how the civil servants will react to this sorry picture of sloppy procedures and crony-ism inside government. I have an idea that they will have flagged up their concerns and have been ignored. There must be some very worried people in politics at the moment. I also note that Leveson has stated unequivocally that he will not act as a firewall in the Jeremy Hunt affair. Lots to be said for judicial independence, in this case it looks like the only shield the public has against rotten government. I have little doubt that he is under immense pressure but is sticking to his guns. We owe him a vote of thanks.
As for Europe, I love the term 'vulture funds', the financiers who swoop on 'distressed debt' and make money out of it. In the process they do nothing but damage to the wider economy and all for personal gain. A sad commentary on the state of our financial institutions. Their target at the moment is Spain now that Greek default is being seen as a done deal.

[Tardis]

Coulson's evidence damaging? Where? Jay never laid a glove on him

If anything it leaves far more questions for Bliar and Brown, as he almost painted Cameroon as an angel

[Tardis]

The education speech was about the number of people in positions of power, and those were just some of the examples that were chosen. With all due deference to you Stanley, the B&E does not have the reach of the Independant, Guardian, or BBC to influence the minds of the sheeple

[Tardis]

So Calamity/Costly Clegg thinks £200k for a single job is good value, that RGA funding must be going down a storm as it is sucked up by infrastructure costly businesses. Looked over by Vince the Cable, it would appear to be a massive own goal.

A truely shambling performance

[Tardis]

Nice of Rebekah to appear in something which chimes with Pendle's celebration of the witch trials

A great throwback to the Crucible, and the MacCarthy inquiries. Excellent news management. Very calm and self assured, and Jay looked quite out of his depth.

I am sure even the Cameroon will live with LOL if it is the worst that comes out

Certainly Brown and Bliar have once again been tarnished

[Stanley]

"Coulson's evidence damaging? Where? Jay never laid a glove on him" He never disclosed that he still held £40,000 of Newscorp shares and his evidence showed he was not positively vetted. He was appointed without even having a proper contract, he said he "had no recollection" of the letter which appointed him. All evidence of sloppy procedures in Downing Street. Rebekah Brooks dropped Jeremy Hunt's department in it with the email in which Newscorp was asked for advice as to how to handle the hacking revelations. Jay didn't need to 'lay a finger' on either of them because they are both under arrest and on police bail, his job was to explore their relationships with senior politicians and I think his assessment of his success would be different from yours. The impression I got from Brook's evidence was that she was very sure of herself and I think this may be because she thinks she is fireproof. She could well be right because cross-examination in any trial would be far more searching than Leveson and somehow I don't think the possible targets want this. As for the BET, you'd be surprised who reads it and gives me feedback.

Meanwhile, in another part of the forest the third attempt to form a Greek government has failed. The next stage is for the President to get all the party representatives together and try to form a Government of National Security. Failing that it is back to the polls again and the June deadline looms ever nearer. The markets will be mulling over the situation during the weekend....
I can't remember a time when politicians were held in less regard. Can you imagine a PM like Clement Atlee ever being exposed to criticism like this? I had a certain amount of sympathy with the Tory who is reported as saying that politicians had been pandering to Murdoch for years, it was a pity that the music stopped while they were looking for the last chair.

[Tardis]

Coulson didn't work in any of the departments where any decisions about BSkyB were to be taken, and as with Hunt, the only damage is actually suffered if the email contains more than innuendo. Michel has already admitted to enhancing the description.

Doesn't stop all those media types pontificating and hypotheisising, after all the great maxim has always been "Why let the truth spoil a good story".

and believe me Stanley, nothing much surprises me, except when I do find someone who is actually honest and straight forward

Rebekah showed yesterday why she was elevated to her corporate level. Her training was impeccable,

[Stanley]

I was struck yesterday by the fact that Spain supports two F1 Grand Prix and while I was watching the qualifying sessions protests were going on in Madrid against the austerity package imposed on the country. There was a strange disconnect between the fantasy world of F1 and the fact that the country is heading deep into crisis. It's a strange world.

[Stanley]

I listened to Phil Hammond making a statement about the latest three deaths in Afghanistan and wondered how I would feel if I were them listening to Mr Hammond stating the bleeding obvious and saying in as many words that this was how it was, the training had to continue so get used to it. Those weren't his words but definitely the import of what he was saying.
Andrew Lansley speaks to the Royal College of Nurses today. Rather him than me! I predict it will not be a happy experience.
I also listened to Greek politicians from the parties who have failed to form a government and while I recognise that much of the problem is self-inflicted I couldn't help feeling sympathy with what they were saying. Their argument is that the austerity solution being imposed on them has nothing to do with the well-being of the Greek people, it is purely for the benefit of the larger financial interests, Europe and the IMF. In effect they are arguing for a more ethical system of capitalism but from an impossible position, the centre of an old fashioned crisis of capital. More and more responsible observers of the scene are talking about the fundamental reform needed in the ethics of the present system which is geared solely to producing wealth for those who hold the levers of power. It's not too excessive to propose that capitalism as it is now cannot survive. We need Big Capitalism because it is the only tool that can produce the wealth needed to pay the debts off but in its present form it is hard to see how it can succeed without inflicting enormous damage on millions of people who will have to pay the ultimate cost, exactly the argument of the Greek protesters. Bit of a mess isn't it......

[Bruff]

''Coulson didn't work in any of the departments where any decisions about BSkyB were to be taken...''
True, but not the point. As the PM's press spokesman, he may be called on to comment etc on any issue that crops up in the lobby and elsewhere. This will range across departments. Hence the need for DV in the past for these types - they may be questioned on matters of State security, 'defense of the realm type' things even though they don't work in MoD or the Home Office. This isn't really a question for Mr Coulson though, rather those who decided he did not need DV. The questions he may need to answer and Mrs Brookes seem to me to be largely those of criminal wrong-doing and they may or may not have their day in court.

All that's happening in Leveson is just a sharp eye being cast over the sewer that passes for much of our media and the degree to which politicians of all hews and those trusted to uphold the law plunged headlong into it. As the queen of this emerging dung heap I would expect Mrs Brookes to put a persuasive face to the world. Whether she's a suitable role model for budding corporate tyros well, folk can make up their own mind.

BBC doing what it's supposed to do. Mr B Johnson is so upset by its 'leftist tendences' he thinks the next gaffer should be a Tory. Said it before, but when an impartial agency is accused of bias by some part of political spectrum you know it's doing its job right. He doesn't really believe this I'm sure as he's a clever chap. He will realise that for every Tory the BBC gives a hard time (to the collective harrumphing of the Shires), there's Labour person getting a hard time too (to the collective harrumphing of the Lentil Valley set). But it's a good dog-whistle to his base who are generally too daft to spot the nuance. That said, no reason at all why the next boss couldn't be a Tory (or a lefty). They'd just have to leave their political views at the door and concentrate on educating, informing and entertaining. Easy done.

Richard Broughton

[Bruff]

Mentioned Developed Vetting (DV) above. This is a good snapshot of what it involves



Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Well, I did predict that there would be a lot of thinking and assessment over the weekend. We now see the results. Basically the markets have decided that Greek default is almost certain and the EU Finance Minister piles in to say that Euroland won't let this happen. Only problem is that everyone knows that the only certain way they can guarantee this is to invade tomorrow and even if they did there isn't enough money to cope with the consequences. As for the report that Cameron is considering acceding to a request for UK to throw squillions into the rescue package.... I can't believe that this would ever be considered. The train wreck may have just accelerated into real time. Best to sit back and watch carefully, nobody can predict what is going to happen with any certainty and this in itself is the main problem. Given the lack of certainty the markets only have one option, move money to safe places and maximise the returns on bonds while they can. Tin Hats on and firmly strapped down!
Did anyone listen to 'Start the Week' on R4 yesterday? Fascinating programme about Spain. Very good panel and when they got onto clear and present dangers to Spain they were unanimous, it's the fact that the banks went on a buying spree while the gravy train was running (Remember Santander taking over everything it could grab?) They also lent heavily to construction and the housing market and it is the collapse of this sector which is producing a massive tranche of toxic investments. Problem is that nobody knows how big it is. Spanish government has started to buy into the banks to shore them up but there isn't enough money ion the system to do this and the consequence is that it becomes a problem of State not the private banks. Not good..... PS. They also pointed out the danger of interpreting employment figures in Spain though our frame of reference. Spain is different because they have a larger informal employment network and an inefficient tax system. They have survived higher unemployment in recent years with no discernible problem, at least, not on the scale that such levels would have in the UK.
Rebekah and Coulson get to know today whether they are going to be charged with perverting the course of justice. It will be interesting to see whether this happens. If charged they will go into open court and be forced to disclose some very damaging stuff. I wonder if the system will close ranks and let them off?

[Stanley]

The CPS demonstrates its independence and my fears weren't realised. Rebekah and Charlie (with three others) have been charged with perverting the course of justice. In Rebekah's case, on top of the other charges she faces over other matters pertaining to the phone hacking scandal. The question that arises now is whether she is being hung out to dry by the Murdochs. How about the others.... Bated breath in Downing Street?
Greece is set for another election after the failure of any agreement on a coalition. Nobody expects the result to be any different. Merkel and Hollande call for an EU summit. Interesting times..... If you had money invested in EU what would you be doing now, sitting around waiting or looking for a way out? Question is, where can you go?

[Tardis]

When G.O.D was interviewed he said that it was acceptable for the kind of vetting Coulson had, until he crossed over into territory where he saw secret documents routinely. But then he was only Cabinet Secretary at the time and might well be protecting his own.

[Tardis]

Lancashire Radio is reporting that negotiations are close to a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition for pendle Council

[Tardis]

The Cameroon seems to have agreed to an investigation into the abuse of young girls in Rochdale, at PMQ's

[Nolic]

Its not the Government's role to agree to the holding of a serious case review - its the responsibility of Rochdale Local Safeguarding Children Board to instigate this and I belive that the wheels for this have been in motion for some weeks. We saw in the case of Peter Connelly the problems that minister's cause when they jump on bandwagons and agree to/demand action on something that is not within their remit. Keep your distance Cammy and let them get on with it. Nolic

[Bruff]

''......until he crossed over into territory where he saw secret documents routinely''

Yes, and that's what's puzzling. Unless you have the clearance to see Top Secret/Eyes Only-type documents, you don't get to see them at all (unless things have changed, and I do not think they have). This is a serious offence, a breach of the Official Secrets Act and penalties for breaches of this Act are severe.

Somewhere along the line a decision was taken by someone (or some persons) not to DV Mr Coulson for some reason(s) not yet known, a departure from most, if not all, past precedent perhaps, as we shall see from the results of the request from Leveson that the vetting status of past incumbents is made available.

There may be explanations. For example, the lack of assiduousness that seems to characterise this administration may have led them to conclude it's all rather a fuss. Or, not being particularly well disposed to public servants, they may have felt the advice from officials was simply a part of a grindingly inflexible bureaucracy or related to this, officials may have felt cowed and resorted to 'politicised' advice. These are 'innocent' explanations, whilst in no way exusing the 'offence'. Alternatively, and far less innocent, it was done because not to do so would preclude the appointment of the person they wanted at, for want of a better phrase, all costs.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

Richard, I think your last suspicion is perhaps the most likely. Mind you, I can't see Cameron taking too kindly to any kind of direction from the appropriate civil servants. Coulson admitted he had seen secret papers. The kindest interpretation of the way Coulson was recruited is that it was an ad hoc appointment to get someone in who actually understood the public at grass roots level ( not the millionaire Cabinet's forte) and it was done with incredible incompetence. It may be that when we eventually learn the truth cock-up and incompetence will explain a lot of the mistakes and U-turns.
Teresa May gets the rough edge of the police. Did she expect anything else? One wonders how many friends they have left. Can they hope for any slack when people arrested because of Hack-gate come into court and are properly cross-examined?
Unemployment figures 'fall' by 45,000. On the face of it a good news story but if you look at them closely they are anything but. Part time working is up and the number of long-term unemployed increases. In the extensive inquests of unemployment during the 1930s it was realised that the key factors were not the raw numbers but the percentage of long-term unemployed and the effects of unemployment in lowering wages and forcing workers into poverty. This hasn't changed.
Mervyn King announces a 33% reduction in the forecast of economic growth for the rest of the year. They now argue for 0.8% growth overall but it's hard to see how this can be achieved when the first two quarters have already been shown to be flat-lining. This assumes and improvement in the second two quarters, ie. starting next month. Looking at the global picture one wonders where this improvement is coming from.
David Cameron stands up in Parliament and castigates the Euro Zone for their handling of the crisis. There can be only one reason for doing this, to disarm criticism later that he did nothing. The reason I say this is that he has broken the taboo when dealing with economic problems, he has alluded to the truth instead of massaging public perceptions by talking confidence up. We see the same thing happening in the Euro zone and again, it smacks of the end game, too late to talk confidence up.
In Greece we see the same thing. The man most likely to form a government after the next round of elections states quite clearly that it will be an anti-austerity government. There is another problem in Greece. In 'normal' times it is estimated that €70billion of deposits are owned by the general public. As near as they can tell, €35billion of this has vanished. Nobody is quite sure what proportion is simply people subsidising everyday living costs by drawing on savings and how much has simply been withdrawn and put somewhere else like in a European bank or under the bed. The authorities have recognised this publicly but say it is not a classic run on the banks. They may be right but the effect is just the same, half the deposits gone and the rest going at about €1billion a day. Even a healthy bank can't stand this scale of withdrawals and the classic cure is what we did with Northern Rock, take over the bank and guarantee the deposits. Problem is of course that the Greeks haven't enough money to do this. The only people with the financial clout to do this is the European Central Bank but they are not going to lift a finger while the political situation is uncertain. So what is going to happen? You'll have to make your own minds up but on the evidence it is hard to see how Greece can be prevented from chaotic default and the problem then is the knock-on effect on other weak Mediterranean countries. This is the train wreck which we have been watching in slow motion. It may be that the speed has now increased to real time.
All this leaves on one side the fundamental problem which none of the politicians has voiced or shown any signs of recognising, the fact that the whole of the western economies have been living beyond their means and financing their life style, both individually and nationally, with artificial credit. The Catch-22 here is that if this was acknowledged and pursued it would inhibit growth which is the only way the debts already incurred can be reduced. It's a Gordian Knot and it remains to be seen whether it will be cut by controlled political policies or by catastrophe. My guess is the latter. So, to quote Donne, "No man is an island. Ask not for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee." Tin hats on Lads!
One ray of hope. The situation is now so bad that there is a faint possibility that the politicians and financial institutions might come to their senses and see that the only long-term way out is to grasp the thorns and work together to avert the train wreck and institute a sensible balance of retrenchment and growth promotion. Don't hold your breath, it would be the biggest U-turn in history and even if it happened it is almost certainly too late. Sorry.....

[Tardis]

Local Politics:

Town Council was not quorate last night to agree to give money to the Valley Gardens fete this weekend,

Nor was it quorate to make payment to the Rainhall centre.

It was, however, able to pay money to Cllr Whipp

Refused to actually take on any of the town's gritting, or the toilet block.

Nice man from the Co-op there asking for a meeting with all cllrs about the supermarket developments, a meeting was agreed.

Report from LEAF study given out, and when I get a copy I will stick it up on the energy matters thread.

Hard to believe that 10% of those homes surveyed had no heating system installed, and many did not yet have low energy light bulbs.