Coronavirus (Covid19) Corner

[Big Kev]

Good news her breathing has stabilized, how's Jack doing?

[PanBiker]

He seems to be improving slightly, they are both eating which is good.

[Big Kev]

Good stuff Ian.

The vaccine roll out is picking up, it's being offered to the over 70s from today.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55698132

[Wendyf]

Craig tested negative for Covid today while 14 others on his shift at work tested positive. He is to stay away from work for 10 days. The factory where he works have kept producing Sky dishes throughout the pandemic (essential work ) without one case up till now.
Hoping Col will get his jab asap.

[Big Kev]

The jabs appear to be going well in Pendle, the question was asked, on Facebook, how well and this was the response. He probably has access to slightly more information than us meer mortals Hopefully Colin should be offered one fairly soon.

Screenshot_20210118-185058_Metal Pro.jpg

[plaques]

Currently there are only two sites in Pendle, the Health Centre Colne and the Yarn Spinners Nelson. Some people on the edge of Brierfield / Burnley have gone to the St Peter's Centre Burnley.

My experience of the vaccine is no physical discomfort just a tendency to feel tired which lasted about three days. Could be purely down to age.
I believe people on warfarin or other blood thinners medication have to show stability over the last weeks.

[Whyperion]

Is tiredness due to age and getting out - I have been told of the older persons queuing for 30mins ( is this the tendency to arrive early that many have, or the NHS Batch Appointment (over) booking to get at least some in the door, with a bit of slack for no -shows ?) - or is the tiredness as the body switches to making anti-bodies , which must have an energy payload.

Any reduction in the number of general colds floating around this year (I had three last year, none this winter) ?

Mum had a letter from the NHS asking her to call the number to book - as did her neighbour (both over 80s), letter dated 8th Jan, so Royal Mail delays probably explain the other over 80s reporting they have not been invited. However both had already been phoned by local NHS offering at a local hospital centre (which is not easily accessible by bus for anyone really). and explained they were housebound, and had the same indication as the Pendle posting of late January for their dates. which is reasonable but a bit of a lack of joined up admin !

Politically pedantic there is the difference between the NHS has as many vaccine doeses as it can cope with distributing , and the management of supplies (in part from the pfizer slight delay to volumes of production).

[Stanley]

Susan had a minor reaction to her first jab but it only lasted a day and she is OK now.

[plaques]

Covid / Mail

The Daily Mail is quoting a study showing that children under the age of 12 carry a much smaller viral load (18 times smaller) than an eighty year old. This study should come with its own health warning. Children are known to have less well developed ACE2 receptors which the virus is thought to latch on to. This may result in a lower load reducing the severity and duration of the illness. It does not demonstrate that they do not pass the virus on to others especially now the new variant virus appears to need less transferred load to be infectious.
The background danger is that with many of the over 80s having received the vaccine together with this suggestion that children carry a lower load then it would be OK for the two to meet up again.
Studies of this kind only add to the overall confusion if they are released as a headline grabbing statements without further explanation.

[plaques]

Is tiredness due to age and getting out - I have been told of the older persons queuing for 30mins ( is this the tendency to arrive early that many have, or the NHS Batch Appointment (over) booking to get at least some in the door, with a bit of slack for no -shows ?) - or is the tiredness as the body switches to making anti-bodies , which must have an energy payload.

I'm probably typical of my generation that prefers to be early for appointments than to be late. With less than two miles to travel by car and knowing that there is adequate parking the journey could be done theoretically in six minutes I would allow at least 15 minutes. On foot I would probably allow much longer. With the tiredness its not a permanent condition only that at stages you feel weary what the mechanics of this condition are I don't know.

[Tizer]

The vaccine roll out is picking up, it's being offered to the over 70s from today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55698132

I'm mid-70s but I don't expect to get the vaccine very soon. They'll probably be giving it first to over-70s who are obese, have diabetes, are `ethnic' or have other vulnerability factors. That's fair enough - as long as they don't forget me!

We might see some problems arising once more people have been vaccinated. I heard an over-70s man who'd just had his jab telling the BBC man `I be able to go on holiday now!' As well the need for a second jab and time for the vaccine to work I wonder what will happen when a lot of people have been vaccinated, feel safe and wander about without masks? We still don't know for sure whether vaccinated/immune people can carry and spread the virus. And it would make it easier for unvaccinated, infected folk to get about without masks on.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mrs Tiz just alerted me to this...
`Health secretary Matt Hancock self-isolating after app alert' LINK
`Health Secretary Matt Hancock has said he is self-isolating after being alerted by the UK's NHS Covid-19 app. The West Suffolk MP said self-isolation was "perhaps the most important part of all the social distancing" and urged others to do the same if contacted. In a tweet Mr Hancock said he would be working from home until Sunday, adding "we all have a part to play in getting this virus under control". He contracted coronavirus in March 2020 and suffered "mild symptoms"..'.

[Big Kev]

The vaccine roll out is picking up, it's being offered to the over 70s from today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55698132

We might see some problems arising once more people have been vaccinated. I heard an over-70s man who'd just had his jab telling the BBC man `I be able to go on holiday now!' As well the need for a second jab and time for the vaccine to work I wonder what will happen when a lot of people have been vaccinated, feel safe and wander about without masks? We still don't know for sure whether vaccinated/immune people can carry and spread the virus. And it would make it easier for unvaccinated, infected folk to get about without masks on.

The guidance, so far, is to still behave as we are now. I don't believe there's any data, relating to how infectious you could be, if you contracted the virus after vaccination. To be honest I'm not confident of being able to book a 'proper' holiday until 2022.

[Stanley]

I'm not the best source of advice but my view is that nothing changes even with both stages of the vaccine done and bedded in. Until there is solid evidence just carry on as we are now. The advantage as far as I am concerned is that I will feel more confident of surviving an almost inevitable brush with Covid when I have full protection.

[plaques]

Without detracting anything from those working in the vaccination programme we hear a lot of statements about following the science. Its worth pointing out that science establishes facts and from these facts a number of probabilities can be offered up. Science itself does not say you must do this, that and t'other only that the probable outcomes are X,Y,Z. The decision on what to do and when to do it is down to the Government which in turn has created the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation [JCVI] but the ultimate responsibility is still lies with the government (read cabinet). Although there is a lot of hot air being generated on who should be included in the short list for the next series of vaccinations this should not stop the debate taking place on why hospitals and patients have been put in the position that we are in at the present.

[Stanley]

Susan tells me that a lot of key carers are off work because West Craven High School is closed to key worker's children because of Covid.

[PanBiker]

Our Carla is still teaching key workers children at Glusburn CP School. She had 6 in class and 20 at home via remote learning. She worked throughout the first lockdown and has been doing the same during this latest one. Her own children Isla and Finlay are catered for at their schools in Silsden as if Carla is working, she herself is considered a key worker.

[Tizer]

I've read a journalist describing her visit to report on the vaccination hub at the Excel Centre in London. She was very impressed and it was working fast and efficiently even with the every large numbers of people attending. The staff are pleased with progress and they were getting through the over-80s quickly. The people being vaccinated were coming out pleased and sporting `I've been vaccinated' badges. The staff said hardly anyone had failed to turn up and everyone seemed enthusiastic about getting the jab. I guess that might all change as they switch to younger age groups!

My relative in her 80s who tested positive is still OK and only feels a bit off colour and with her appetite a bit lower than usual. The covid has spread in the unit and she's considered the primary source even though they isolated her. She'd been in the unit a while before she tested positive and the only way she can have caught covid is from someone in the unit or when she was taken back to her flat for a day and `assessed' by a lot of different people. Her daughter was at the flat too but hasn't shown any symptoms. Because of the large number of contacts, daughter is now inundated with phone calls from Track & Trace, all different people, each wanting the full story and names etc of contacts. Daughter keeps explaining that mother is in hospital. Each `tracer' seems to be using a script and she has to wait while they look down the list to see what to ask next. One of them admitted he was only there to earn a few quid between other jobs. It sounds like T&T is a real pig's ear! (Dido Harding again.)

[Stanley]

Read MD in Private Eye this week. He is absolutely blistering in his attacks on how the government has 'managed' their response to the virus on economic and political principles instead of listening to the experts. At the same time they hid behind 'we're only following the science'. What they failed to add was 'when it suits us'.

[Tizer]

Yes, been there, read that, an excellent article. I also like this bit under the heading Personal Responsibility...
"Irrespective of the competence of our political leadership, a virus that spreads quickly and silently can only be slowed if enough of us stick to the rules. We haven't. The British thirst for freedom, individualism and ignoring experts gives us great art and comedy, but dreadful infection control. We can resist everything but temptation. We will always find selfish excuses to bend or break the rules and justify our risky behaviour."

He then compares death rates per head in various countries with the UK at or very near the top and ends: "In the lowest risk countries a major incident is declared if a handful of cases emerge and rapid action is taken to isolate. In the UK, we tolerate tens of thousands of new cases a day. Why?"
------------------------------------------------

The Prittster is in the news again. Apparently she told a meeting of the Conservative Friends of India group on Tuesday night that she had been "an advocate of closing them [the borders] last March". For once I agree with her and I'm glad to see so does Labour's shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds, saying: "The government's chaotic border policy led to vital opportunities to stop the spread of the virus being missed...Conservative incompetence meant ministers were too slow to take action on securing our borders against Covid and have failed to enact a clear strategy throughout this crisis, including on border testing." He called on the home secretary to urgently update the House of Commons "on what has been learned from these critical mistakes". LINK

[plaques]

Concern is now being raised that having received their first dose of vaccine then people would 'let their hair down' and ignore the safety rules, apart from the fact the first tranche of vaccines has been delivered to the over 80's where hair is at a premium the government has been pushing that a single dose of the vaccine gives 90% protection. This is clearly not true. A study in Israel shows that two weeks after the vaccine it only provides 33% cover with the suggestion it may not rise above 50% for longer periods. Our Chris Witty does not fully contradict these figures and edges his bet with a 'the situation need monitoring' statement. It would be better for the government to admit that a single dose is not the silver bullet that people were led to expect rather than making a pre-emptive suggestion it would be the peoples fault for ignoring rules and letting their hair down.

Having said all this 50% is still a worthwhile protection and to vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible is the right thing to do.

[Whyperion]

Are Israel using the Biontech vacinene or the Chinese one?

Covid / Mail

Studies of this kind only add to the overall confusion if they are released as a headline grabbing statements without further explanation.

Your note shoud be a sticky post in our medical and statistical forums. and rammed down the BBC too until they understand headline manipulation

[Whyperion]

The vaccine roll out is picking up, it's being offered to the over 70s from today.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55698132

I'm mid-70s but I don't expect to get the vaccine very soon. They'll probably be giving it first to over-70s who are obese, have diabetes, are `ethnic' or have other vulnerability factors. That's fair enough - as long as they don't forget me!

We might see some problems arising once more people have been vaccinated. I heard an over-70s man who'd just had his jab telling the BBC man `I be able to go on holiday now!' As well the need for a second jab and time for the vaccine to work I wonder what will happen when a lot of people have been vaccinated, feel safe and wander about without masks? We still don't know for sure whether vaccinated/immune people can carry and spread the virus.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

I think it is fairly noted that the vaccine does not prevent infection, only the worse of symptoms (including death) etc. (not certain about that Israel 50percent study - there are different ways of measuring to the baseline without vaccine). The doctor on ITV news had it about right on the vaccine comments, as did Gloria Hunnyford on Loose Women - emphasising the need for the second dose and the wait after that too, though she did trip up on immunity , which after the commercial break the host corrected that the vacinne offered protection rather than immunity and did not prevent being infectious.

[Whyperion]

I forgot another spin off problem in NHS hospitals is the loss of staff - so that is a reduction in service to start off with , and also as the numbers of persons in intensive card / high dependency increase the staff levels cannot be ramped up proportionatley, so each person has less carers, so less effective care and/or a need to attempt to triage within intensive care itself, and outcomes while not wholly random, are still unclear as to the timing, amount and type of treatment to each individual, this probably explains the high level of deaths recently (and the lower ones in summer where more time and resources could be better spread ).

[plaques]

Pfizer 50% protection figure.
My summery of the report shown it italics is...

The recommended time interval between the first and the second doses is 21 days. There is very little resistance to the virus within the first 15 days the majority coming in the last 6 days. Checking each day from day 1 to day 21 and recording all the failures gives a sum total success rate of 52%. Checking only from day 15 to 21 gives 89%. A second dose then boosts this up to 92%.
Basically once passing the 21 day mark there is a 89% efficacy in reducing the severity of the illness. Note this is NOT an immunity.
...................
Pfizer-BioNTech
According to Pfizer data published in December 2020, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is roughly 52% effective after the first dose. Out of 36,523 participants in the phase three trial – the final stage of testing where people either received two full doses, 21 days apart, or a placebo – who had no evidence of existing infection, 82 people in the placebo group and 39 in the vaccine group developed Covid-19 symptoms.
However, this early protection comes with some important caveats. First, the protection doesn't kick in until at least day 12 – until then, there was no difference between the two groups. Secondly, one dose is still significantly less protective than two. The latter is 95% effective at preventing the disease after a week.
But there is also another figure that has been circulating on the internet, and anecdotally, being fed to patients by certain doctors – the suggestion that the first dose is around 90% effective. And this is where it gets a little more complicated.
The second estimate comes from the UK's Vaccine Committee, the JCVI, who decided to calculate the efficacy of the vaccine differently. Instead of using all the data on the number of infections, including from days when the first dose hadn't yet started to work, they only looked at days 15-21. Using this method, the efficacy of the vaccine jumps up to 89%, because it's not being diluted by the relatively high number of infections before the vaccine begins to have an effect. Taking things even further and only looking at the first seven days after the second dose (days 21-28) – because the second dose might not have kicked in yet by then – it's 92%.
However, these calculations are controversial.

[Stanley]

Ken I suspect you'd agree with me when I say that too many people seem to regard 'getting vaccinated' as some sort of silver bullet. Just the prospect of a jab some time soon is driving up holiday bookings and talk of hugging grandchildren. The only benefit I see is that it will give me a better chance of surviving if I get it.
At the moment I just watch the number of deaths a day and hope my shielding works! The most dangerous thing I have done for a year is spend ten minutes in a closed space with a nurse at the surgery while she did my diabetes tests.