OneGuyFromBarlick

Bruff wrote:.. (in reality at the extremes the far right and left are two cheeks of the same backside).

What an exquisite definition! Is it your own creation Bruff, or have you quoted someone else?

A quote that I read recently :-
"When two opposing points of view are advocated with equal vigour, the truth doesn't necessarily lie halfway between. Its possible for one of them to be simply wrong.". Economics as a science is no different to other sciences that demand fact based evidence. In this respect the Corbyn camp with Piketty and Stiglltz have all the factual evidence. Cameron's position is based on fear and misunderstanding. We will undoubtedly hear a lot more about "rational" thinking. In economic terms this form of rationality is viewed as "self interest". The difficulty here is separating the Interests of the individual 1% as against the group interests of the 60%. Of course the intermediate 39% will survive quite nicely for some considerable time following the 1% until they trickle down into the growing 60% .

I'm still worried we won't get to Jeremy's Promised Land. We could have done if they route had been taken by the previous Labour Governments under Blair, but those wasted years and the changes under wrong economic thinking of the Conservative led coalition means there does not appear to be enough usable future revenues to pay for past, and required future financial investments that need to be made, particularly if the present government tie up substantial commitments on the wrong kind of energy and defence in this parliament.

Its already noted that main industries in UK are going to struggle in world markets ( such issues in western europe in the past were the formations of the Economic Union ), and I feel that a rush to build indiscriminate housing, without building sustainable communities, will not be done correctly.

But our children have much potential if educated well, and opportunities available, but the groundwork has to start now at local levels across the country.

I like your post and agree Richard. I am reminded of the paranoia caused by 'Left' or God forbid, 'Communist' in the US. I knew one or two members of the American Communist Party and they were simply old fashioned social democrats. Communism was always regarded with horror by the establishment because it meant the public questioning their hegemony, that started with the Revolutions and has never gone away since. After the Second World War in America opposing 'The Red Tide' became a tool of social control as it enabled large defence budgets, a bigger arms industry and higher tax take from the profits. (That's simplistic of course but close enough to the truth) Fear has always been a powerful tool for manipulating society and under the Tory view of 'a sound economy' fear of debt is the new bogeyman. Borrowing at low interest rates by government for essential projects makes sound economic sense. Compare and Contrast with PFI and asking foreign investors to finance large infrastructure projects. If a large industrial corporation borrows to invest in a profitable enterprise this is seen as good business. Go figure!
P, you're dead right again! The problem is of course that the reins of power are in the hands of large capital and this suits a Right Wing point of view as they can ride to greater power and prosperity by pandering to that 1%. As you say, the 'middle class' is beginning to find the flaws in that arrangement! Piketty's evidence on this balance of power is particularly compelling. He demonstrates with a wealth of carefully researched statistics that in the period between the 50s and the 80s when the lower echelons saw the greatest improvement in prosperity and quality of life coincided with strict regulation of financial institutions, progressive taxation and taking full advantage of technological progress. This increased prosperity, raised consumption and GDP, manufacturing boomed and we saw real progress. As soon as Chicago School economics won the argument all this was reversed. The irony is of course that when these policies destroyed the balance we had reached everyone suffered including the majority of the capital owners. Their reaction was to skew distribution of income even further their way and as Piketty proves conclusively this sucks capital out of the general economy and leads to further deterioration. His forecast for low GDP for the foreseeable future makes grim reading. His opinion is that the answer is a global wealth tax or the equivalent in progressive taxation. His alternative is social unrest.
As for Jeremy's speech yesterday, he hit all the sensible buttons for the first steps in any fight back. The failed leaders pour scorn in from the sidelines ignoring that their policies and concepts led us to where we are today. The first thing to concentrate on is relentless use of the evidence to prove the case. Electoral success is secondary, it is only a measure of the efficacy of the policy message and should be put on the back burner. What we need for the future of social democracy is a united front behind carefully researched policies. Corbyn's approach is the most promising I have seen for the last 30 years at least. I wish him and his policies well.

Tizer – I thought the ‘two cheeks’ thing was a common saying for minor differences between two shabby or disreputable things that at face value seem very different. Cf, New Labour and the Tories; Mr Ferguson and Mr Mourinho; Tesco and Sainsbury’s.

‘’Economics as a science….’’

The jury’s out on that. There might be a reason why one can study Politics, Philosophy and Economics and not Physics, Pharmacology and Economics. For all there is a degree of empiricism, economics does comes with an agenda or a belief, as all social sciences do. The natural sciences don’t, so as the T-shirt you can get notes: the great thing about science is that it’s right no matter what you believe. I am sure I’m right in noting that an American study looked at the forecasts of reputable economists across a range of issues and found their accuracy no better than chance. That is, you might as well ask me. By contrast, Newtonian physics will, all other things being equal (like the engineering), allow you to plop a craft on a comet millions of miles away 10s of years hence with absolute certainty.

It’s why climate change annoys the hell out of the likes of Lord Lawson…………..

Richard Broughton

Bruff wrote:’Economics as a science….’’
The jury’s out on that.

I must agree that there are times when both Philosophy and Economics appear to overlap. Many of the great philosophers were scientists in their own right and similarly many economists are quite accomplished mathematicians. In his book. Amartya Sen, (2010). The Idea of Justice. Goes to great lengths to explain that justice (fairness) is a far from simple concept and depends largely from which angle you are viewing it from. A book, which I may add, give me more headaches than I bargained for. More recently he has written several articles against austerity which are in tune with the views of Piketty and Stiglitz.
I’m always a little sceptical of studies that end up with result that are “no better than chance”. If the original proposed outcome is based on some sort of probability then the result will always be down to chance. One could argue that the Quantum Theory depends entirely probability therefore it has no place in science. Thomas Piketty has demonstrated with endless graphs and charts that the current trend of capitalism is to concentrate wealth (capital) into fewer and fewer hands. His suggestions for breaking this trend may be open to question but the data he presents has never been questioned.
The example using Newtonian physics to plant a rocket on some distant planet is a lot less fuzzier than many of the other sciences although even in this case the calculations will have involved Einstein’s theory of relativity and made adjustments for the slowing of time at these sort of speeds. Which brings us back to death and taxes??

A couple of random thoughts.

Corbin will not last long as Labour leader. Months rather than years. (maybe even weeks?)

He is showing the strain, and has never had pressure like he has now. He was late on parade this morning, I don't think he will stand the pace. He also seems to have a short fuse, and will crack up in an interview soon.

Powers have started betting on the next leader. Andy Burnham was the favourite, but it was all suspended yesterday, and now he is 16-1, down at number eight. New fav is Dan Jarvis at 5-1.

Who's Dan Jarvis?

Richard, you are right of course, economics has never been an exact science, Keynes himself had the same opinion. Even so, with the benefit of hindsight, the theories of Marx and Keynes have stood the test of time pretty well. (I wonder how many of the 'experts' who call others Marxist have ever read Marx?) Friedman was a brilliant economist but look at the damage following his market theory has caused. As in so many other areas of life, we have no certainty, you pays your money and takes your choice.....
P is better read than I am....
David, you could well be right, if so it would be a shame. However, I think you are being a touch pessimistic. His greatest danger is the May elections.... It's far too early to make any judgements, Corbyn is swimming in a different pond and will have problems but it's quite surprising how people can grow into jobs.... Nobody had Atlee down as Prime Ministerial material.... He's hoeing a very hard row at the moment and isn't doing too badly in my opinion. Looking at worst case, if he did fail quickly he has already altered the face of politics.
One thing that struck me yesterday was the contrast between his delivery at the podium and Blair's. Remember the studied pauses, the choked throat (emotion) and the reliance on razzmatazz? Reminiscent of the 'dramatisation' that is aimed for at sporting events. Corbyn sounds as though he is talking to individuals, an admirable style.
Give him time and rely on the democratic process. I may not get the result that I want to see but at the moment I am more hopeful than at any time in the last thirty years.....

Dan Jarvis is the MP for a Barnsley seat. To give him the full honorific to which he is entitled he is Major Dan Jarvis late of HM Parachute Regiment. He was right at General Sir Mike Jackson’s side when it threatened to kick off in Kosova after the Russians pitched up at the airport there. He is a soldier of some distinction, seeing active service in many arenas. He also suffered desperate personal tragedy losing his wife to cancer in her 30s leaving him a widower with 2 young children. He refused to stand in the latest leadership election as he did not want to disrupt his children’s lives at this time. He has been a junior opposition spokesman, is bright and charismatic. Distasteful as it is to have to note this (but these are the times we live in), his backstory makes him no taget at all for the likes of the character-assassinating Mail etc. He is quite frankly, the Mail/Sun/Express/Times/Telegraph’s worst nightmare, as well as the worst nightmare of a bullying blowhard like the current PM.

Richard Broughton

Richard - I knew most of that - that's why I put a smiley next to the question. Personally I'd mark him down on ambition and determination, but perhaps he's waiting for the right moment.

" I think you are being a touch pessimistic."

No - optimistic.

You are so well informed Richard. I should have known that but didn't. You are dead right about him being a harder target for the Monster Press with a CV like that.... I'm in favour of anybody who is Bullingdon Dave's worst nightmare!
I don't think Jeremy Corbyn has handled the question of atomic retaliation well at all. By doing his honest truth bit and stating his long held opinion instead of saying that the Party will decide policy democratically he has put up a huge hostage to fortune. The fact that it coincides with his trip to Scotland and meeting the admirable Ms Sturgeon makes it worse....

Aaaaagh, I can’t get to grip with emoticons. Sorry about that Tripps; I thought the smiley face meant another surprise winner………..

Richard Broughton

" I can’t get to grip with emoticons."

Don't worry - as Ken Dodd often says - 'they can't touch you for it'.

There's no body language in an internet post - misunderstandings can happen, which would not when face to face. When is the Christmas party anyway? We could get all the posters on here in the Rolls Royce club quite easily. Gus Brennan could do the photos. Oh dear here we go again.


With me, it's best to assume light flippancy at all times.

My preferred mode is to avoid any form of enthusiasm whenever possible.... That's why my attitude to Jeremy is give him a chance and follow the Asquith dictum "Wait and see....". Jeremy Clarkson (yes, it was him chairing HIGNFY last night) was particularly egregious about Corbyn. Brownie points with his mate next door?
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest, we gaol a 15 year old for life for terrorist activities, Putin doesn't differentiate between any type of rebel, he says they are all terrorists so he bombs anti Assad elements in Syria. Everyone seems to be bombing everyone there.... No wonder people flee towards Europe. I can't see anything but trouble in that theatre... Channel tunnel closed as refugees break through and attempt escape. The shooter in Oregon picks victims based on religion. And to cap it all, a 15 year old lad shoots a police official in Australia after shouting religious slogans.
When Pope Urban called for the first Crusade from Europe in 1096 on the grounds of religion (but actually because of the attacks on Roman Christianity on the Middle East) was he a terrorist? These labels are dangerous and very seldom accurate. Sorry, I seem to be in a particularly pessimistic mood this morning....

I heard the quote from the local minister where the school shootings occurred, he said that If all the students had been carrying arms they could have defended themselves! With this kind of attitude propped up by the constitution and a good degree of paranoia there does not seem to be a cat in hell's chance of any kind of gun control.

Dead right Ian, I heard that as well and winced. I could never quite get over the fact that in Minnesota (a very moderate state on the whole0 you could walk into the local Walmart chain store and buy enough arms and ammunition to start a small war. All you needed was a driving licence and a credit card! I compared that in my head with going into Manby's at Skipton ( A lovely shop, so sad it vanished) to buy a box of .410 Long cartridges for my vermin killing. I had to have my shotgun licence and identification and the purchase was logged at the shop and with the local police. Long ago I had a .22 rifle as well and getting ammo for that was even more difficult!
No such difficulties for Cameron.... He has announced he is going to his friendly local arms dealer to buy some more drones for operations in Iraq and Syria.... (LINK) Don't you just love the user-friendly names they give them, 'The Reaper' and 'The protector'..... Trouble is they are effective and remote. No danger to the operator sat in a darkened room at home in front of a video screen, zap an 'enemy target' and home to the wife and kids.... Even I can see the advantages even though I hate the concept. We are such ingenious creatures.....
See THIS for what appears on the face of it to be a perceptive piece in the Guardian by Andrew Rawnsley. very well written as usual but I couldn't help asking myself would it be just as effective if it was describing Cameron and his back benchers? Label like 'hard left' and 'hard right' are so useful..... I watch and wait.....

PanBiker wrote:If all the students had been carrying arms they could have defended themselves!

If the development of drones follows that of Darwinian evolution we should all be able to buy our own personal miniature drone. We could the have preemptive strikes against anyone who we take a dislike to or is seen to pose a threat to our security. Not a very happy scenario.

You can already buy your own drone, the multi rotor gyro stabilised type, most folk put cameras on them but I wonder how long it will be before we see them being used as weapons.

The Tea Party in the US is probably already setting up its own `drone air force'.

See THIS for a report that Cameron is to stand firm on the cuts to working tax credit despite opinions like that of the Institute for Financial Studies who calculate that a family on minimum wage will be over £1300 worse off. Back bench MPs are also worried that it damages the image of the Tories as the 'Workers friend'. The cuts continue, austerity is still the policy driver for the Tories even though almost every reputable opinion has agreed that it is wrong. All part of the Tory plan to drag us back to the good old days of the 19th century.... Who cares about the poor..... It's immoral.

Here's a thought...The Labour Party is in disarray, the Libdems have almost disappeared and the Tories are gloating and feel their day has come and they can't put a foot wrong. But wait... they are reverting to the old "We are born to run the nation" style and I think they'll over do it and hit the buffers. And that's when they'll discover there's a new kid on the block, a new community of like-minded people, perhaps not yet with a political party identity. A bit like when the dinosaurs who survived the Cretaceous extinction found they were sharing the world with some small furry beasts who somehow managed to be more successful. The biggest danger to this future group won't be the Tories; it'll be the Blairites who want to maintain the status quo while pretending to be the `party of the people'. I can imagine Dr Who opening up a handsome, friendly Blairite and finding an aggressive, sharp-toothed Tory inside! Sorry if that's too many mixed metaphors!

Fascinating Tiz.... I know you are as addicted to R4 as I am and I'll make a guess that you heard that palaeontologist positing his theory that a fossil they have found recently is evidence that after the Dinosaurs were all killed 'one Tuesday morning', evolution suddenly accelerated. I have noted in the past that your brain works the same way as mine at times and I was thinking along very similar lines yesterday. I think it's an excellent metaphor for our current politics but of course my hope is that the Labour Party can produce that spurt in political evolution. It's a big ask but there is a faint chance it could happen.
My personal opinion about the course the Tories are taking is that it is bonkers, completely ignoring the long term consequences of everything, from cutting government support for society, selling our birthright to anyone with a fat enough wallet and pursuing dreams of Empire with the UK a 'big hitter' on the world stage in nuclear terms. They are accelerating these changes before the previous cuts have had time to bed in and it will only take one small shift in the global picture to bring the Tory Project crashing down. The hubris of the statements and aspirations coming out of government is staggering. Ossie announces investment in the Northern Project again, the same ones that were manifesto promises and then dropped when they realised they were not attainable. There has been a miracle somewhere and once more they are on the agenda. They pursue the Holy Grail of being the 'Peoples Party' while doing more and more damage to 'the people'. They accuse the Opposition of looking back to the 1980s while they pursue the 1880s. Actually, 1950 to 1980 was a pretty good template in terms of advancement of society under tight financial regulation and progressive taxation.
I hate where we are at the moment but like the devastation of that 'Tuesday Morning' it could possibly be the precursor for a long term change from a direction they never dreamed of. There are sensible Tories on the back benches and there is evidence they are getting uneasy about current events. Pendulums have a nasty habit of swinging and the next adjustment may be a bit of a surprise for the Chiltern Set....
I note that Assad in Syria is talking about the break-up of the Middle east if Russia isn't successful in their intervention. Just for once, he may have a point. What is happening in Syria at the moment is incredibly dangerous.

Later.... Dead on cue, Jeremy Hunt reinforces all I was saying about the Tories.... Have a look at this REPORT in the Guardian of his assertion that cutting working tax credit will make the British work like the Chinese. This is the 'Worker's Party' strategy writ large. Work harder and longer for less money and we will look after you by growing an economy which increasingly benefits the top 1%.
On a slightly brighter note.... Not on the web yet but Joseph Stiglitz has announced that he will gladly advise Jeremy Corbyn and says good things about 'Corbynomics'. Thomas Piketty is expected to follow suit.

Remember when I said I was impressed with Heidi Allen MP when she knocked on my door in April - well she seems to have found her feet OK in the Commons, and is spreading her wings. (Too many metaphors)

Heidi Allen

Refreshingly honest or just naive? I've saved her election photo poster from the end of the road - It may yet be a collectors' item.

Ossie stated that he has noted that people are telling him he doesn't know what he is doing. He asserts that he does.

I think I would be happier if he really did not know what he is doing, but I suspect that he does (but its not to give the result he declares he wishes to achieve)