OneGuyFromBarlick

Ref the New Coronavirus, which seems to be gathering pace, and in China seems to be being treated on a similar basis to Ebola - In view of the large number of Chinese students in Cambridge, I'm not surprised to see this -

Wuhan comes to Jesus College

Those who have been paying attention, will recognise the 'meeter and greeter' as Dr Julian Huppert who was the Liberal Democrat MP for Cambridge until 2015, since returned to Academia.

Since the incubation period is unknown, but may be up to 14 days, and we learn today that there may be transmission between people without symptoms - perhaps we should be concerned. They say the group dined in the College, visited the Fitzwilliam museum, and really enjoyed going clubbing in the town.

The live telephone reports from expats in China seem to have been stopped today. It will be difficult to sort fact from fake. I'm concerned.

Be good to hear from chinatyke. . . .

A few minutes before reading your post above I was reading this latest BBC News page:
`China coronavirus 'spreads before symptoms show'' LINK
This is like the infectivity of influenza and unlike that of SARS which is only infective after symptoms appear.

There is a news story in The Times, not directly related to the virus but describing the extent to which British academic institutions are now sending our students abroad to study and increasingly bringing more groups here from overseas countries. The numbers are great and there are many institutions involved. I'd never heard of some of them. All this will mean we'll have to be extra careful in future about infectious diseases being transmitted through these connections.

"In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09)." (Government figures)
This isn't in the news......

Thanks for those figures. Yesterday I was wondering how many people in the UK had died from influenza in this month. So spread evenly over a year it would be 50 but the figure will obviously be higher in winter and could be 100 or 200, say, in January. We should be also looking at the situation in China and I've found this information...

First, what are the global figures: Influenza virus infections lead to substantial morbidity and mortality each year globally, causing an estimated 290,000–650,000 respiratory deaths annually. In China for the period from 2010/11 to 2014/15 seasons an annual average of 88,100 influenza-associated excess respiratory deaths was found. Of these, 80% occurred in individuals aged 60 years or older. (`Influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality in China, 2010–15: a population-based study', The Lancet

I see from the news that today is Australia Day. Here's a picture of how it all started.
No mention of it in the main stream media that I've seen.
Starting colonies is not flavour of the month.

PS Just looked again - reminds me of the overcrowded rubber dinghies current crossing the English Channel. No Border Force to rescue / welcome them though.

Coronavirus continues to dominate the news. The headlines are concentrating on the number of deaths. Sad and upsetting as a death may be the affect on GDP will be minimal especially if it is hitting the over 60's. Probably more worrying is that with any new epidemic it will affect large portions of the populations almost instantly. The resultant absenteeism will bring many businesses to a standstill. The only suggestion I have heard of for dealing with the illness follows a suggested line. Don't go to your Doctor or health centre, stop indoors and ring this number XXXXX. A health visitor will be sent round to assess you. This is cloud cuckoo land stuff,we don't have enough health visitors to deal with the day to day serious illness that we have now. So far I haven't read anything that the government COBRA have come up with. Boris Johnson does not intend to be there. He can blame others for not getting it right. The oldest trick in the book.

Tizer wrote: ↑26 Jan 2020, 16:46 Since the incubation period is unknown, but may be up to 14 days, and we learn today that there may be transmission between people without symptoms - perhaps we should be concerned. They say the group dined in the College, visited the Fitzwilliam museum, and really enjoyed going clubbing in the town.

Today's advice from the Government is for anyone who has entered the country in the last few weeks from the Wuhan area should 'self isolate' and dial 111. Perhaps a bit late for that, but what else can they say?

There are three direct flights per week, and many which connect via other airports. They say that about two thousand people may be involved. Busy night at 111 then.

The connection with wild animals came out a bit quickly didn't it? and the picture of the girl eating a bat, and I've read on the internet (so it's must be true ) on a Canadian website, that Wuhan is the location of the Chinese equivalent to Porton Down. Mmmm. . .

Other stories have driven this off the front page - Prince Andrew, Grenfell, Auschwitz anniversary. I think it will soon be back there - especially when the first live case is found.

Good luck to us all.

Tripps wrote: ↑27 Jan 2020, 19:03 and I've read on the internet (so it's must be true ) on a Canadian website, that Wuhan is the location of the Chinese equivalent to Porton Down. Mmmm. . .

The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory, apparently the US warned about 'escaping viruses' back in 2017

Are we as guilty as anyone in feeding the flames of the debate? Pure gold for Johnson et al. No UK information about the really important things that David mentioned. Forgive me for being jaundiced, I am fully engaged with my own medical matters at the moment....

I noticed the news about plans to re-open the railway line from Fleetwood to Poulton-le-Fylde. A look on the Web produced some lovely pics of Fleetwood - I had some happy days there as a child. Even the Knott End ferry was exciting! Fleetwood

We used to go to Fleetwood as well Tiz. Just had a wander along the Esplanade on Google maps. I think I found where we used to stay, I recognise the handrail and steps up to the three story property. It's called The Savoy now (very posh). don't think it was when we used to go in the early 60's. The RC boats on the lake used to fascinate me and I remember they had model speedboat racing one year we were there.

The Isle of Man ferry Mona's Queen coming into Fleetwood in summer 1977. It was a favourite day out for us lots of interest and not as gaudy and in your face as Blackpool....

See THIS article which shocked even me. I have always known that once the Japanese had perfected the sexing of newly born chicks and the practice had reached here in the mid 1950s the male chicks were separated and killed. I always understood it was by gassing but this article shows that it has been common in some countries to simply shred or grind them. That is a horrible end for any living thing and we are talking about vast numbers each year. I don't know what UK policy is but I hope it's slightly less brutal than this.
I have had a disturbing thought. Knowing what I do about the process of producing 'protein granules' from rotten slaughter house waste, does the ground up chick waste end up in the same process? I'll bet it does because when you think about it it is almost pure protein. How we deal with this sort of waste is still a murky area and I know that Dog and Cat food can contain the granules.

`Lungs 'magically' heal damage from smoking' LINK
`...Dr Rachel Orritt, from Cancer Research UK, said: "It's a really motivating idea that people who stop smoking might reap the benefits twice over - by preventing more tobacco-related damage to lung cells, and by giving their lungs the chance to balance out some of the existing damage with healthier cells."

See THIS BBC article from 1017. It came to my notice because according to the BBC You and Yours programme the problem has once more reared its head.

Thank goodness somebody is warning about Paltrow...
`Gwyneth Paltrow's Goop series on Netflix slammed by NHS chief' LINK

Couldn't agree more Tiz.
""While fake news used to travel by word of mouth, and later the Caxton press, we all know that lies and misinformation can now be round the world at the touch of a button - before the truth has reached for its socks, never mind got its boots on," " says it all really. I occasionally search Youtube for stuff like this and Paltrow isn't the only person chasing 'celebrity' and personal gain via these mediums. That's the bottom line, snake oil for profit. It should be a criminal offence!

The crystal sellers need shaming too, but I've mentioned them at length before. Just type crystals into Google and you'll understand why an amateur mineralogist like me gets irritated!

The official figures are 14400 people infected with nCoV in China and 304 deaths as at 2400 hrs CST Sat 1st Feb.
Huanggang is "locked down" - only 1 member from each family is allowed to leave home once every 2 days to get essential supplies. The Chinese culture is that people shop for fresh produce every day.
From next Tuesday trains are booked solid again for at least 2 weeks, that represents millions of people on the move in China.

Latest news this morning here confirms everything you say China.

Just to keep things in perspective:

In the 2019-2020 season so far, there have been at least 19 million cases of flu, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths in the U.S., including at least 68 children. Flu activity has been widespread in nearly every region, with high levels of activity in 41 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
....
Seasonal influenza kills up to 650,000 people a year worldwide, according to the World Health Organization, and the epidemics cause 3 to 5 million severe cases every year.

Full article here

Those are big numbers quoted for the US but they are probably too low. I don't know why but the news media seem to have picked up only on the low end of the range given by the CDC. They quote 19,000,000 – 26,000,000 flu illnesses, 180,000 – 310,000 flu hospitalizations and 10,000 – 25,000 flu deaths. perhaps they don't want to frighten people - which seems very unlike the usual news media pronouncements! Here are up to date figures from the CDC's web site: CDC

I don't like the way even the CDC uses `flu' instead of `influenza' when addressing the news media or the public. Most people equate `flu' with a bad cold, not the drastic effects and possibly death due to influenza.

Tizer wrote: ↑02 Feb 2020, 16:47 Those are big numbers quoted for the US but they are probably too low. I don't know why but the news media seem to have picked up only on the low end of the range given by the CDC. They quote 19,000,000 – 26,000,000 flu illnesses, 180,000 – 310,000 flu hospitalizations and 10,000 – 25,000 flu deaths. perhaps they don't want to frighten people - which seems very unlike the usual news media pronouncements! Here are up to date figures from the CDC's web site: CDC

I don't like the way even the CDC uses `flu' instead of `influenza' when addressing the news media or the public. Most people equate `flu' with a bad cold, not the drastic effects and possibly death due to influenza.

actual figures not estimates

Jack and I are 100% free from infection. This is not an estimate.

China, the estimates are used because: `CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the United States. However, these numbers are estimated using a mathematical model, based on observed rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated hospitalizations.' This is the same approach as used for food poisoning.