OneGuyFromBarlick

Interesting comments on the radio this morning by people who know much more about it than I do saying that it's not really a fight between religions but it's all about a fight for power between different groups regardless of religion. The people over there in the thick of it are saying that it's the news media who are making it out as primarily a religious divide and this image is being imposed on them.

I heard similar reports Tiz. We only know what we are fed by the media. Having said that, there is no doubt that the Sunni/Shia divide is a serious one and despite attempts to prove otherwise, has many aspects in common with the Rome/Northern Europe divide as Protestantism took hold. Likewise the fatal decision made by the Catholic Church to crusade against Islam. Fundamental religion can be a bit of a burden!
Jeremy appears to be making progress in his reshuffle but one wonders how this will attract more support from the backbenchers. At the moment the war seems to be between the Party Members and the MPs.... On a very basic level, in the end the electors will have the last word and perhaps the MPs should be thinking more about the wishes of their constituents than their own entrenched positions fuelled by Centrist dogma, a hangover from Blair.
I watched Obama making his appeal for improvements in gun laws. I heard a Senator, not known for his support of the Gun Lobby, saying that the problem wasn't the guns, it was the attitudes of the people who use them. I tend to agree with him. There is a deep undercurrent of entirely selfish and wrong headed fundamental feeling that dictates that anyone who doesn't agree with you is an enemy. Complete lack of tolerance and respect for the beliefs of others coupled with contempt for human life. The same could be said for many situations today. I haven't the faintest idea how you begin to address that one. Perhaps we are all doomed to endure conflict.....

The end of irony - (again). Jeremy Corbyn has sacked Pat McFadden for 'disloyalty'

"During his political career even David Cameron has not managed to vote against the Labour party more times than Mr Corbyn. And yet the 66-year-old tee-total vegetarian finds himself leader of the opposition, demanding loyalty from 231 Labour MPs"

(Daily Mail Sep 2015)

It looks like Corbyn has been reading his Shakespeare. We now have all these would be Brutuses, or is it Bruti? complaining they didn't get a chance of stabbing Caesar.

Worth remembering that Jeremy has not got the freedom he had on the back benches. He has to grow into the job and become a politician. He's not a Macmillan yet and hasn't the temperament to do a 'Night of the Long Knives' but he's getting there. I see three more have jumped ship. Described as being part of an extreme right wing clique in the party. He's getting there but slowly. Dave has no room to talk about hanging on to his friends long after their sell-by date.....
Poking my head above the parapet and surveying the world.... Ossie must not be very sanguine about global prospects and the effects these could have on the 'economic miracle', this of course assumes that he is capable of appreciating what is going on, particularly the long term effects. The oil price has fallen below $35 a barrel and the Chinese stock exchange is in melt-down. The economists can, and no doubt will, give a raft of reassuring opinion but the bottom line is that global trade is sick and showing no signs of recovery. This in itself has all sorts of implications for us and also for the ailing Euro. It's a stormy outlook and all Ossie does is crash on with his discredited policy of austerity. 2016 could be a rough year.....
Later at 06:30. I was wise before the event.... The financial news this morning is not good, UK manufacturing is stagnating, Ossie is to make a speech today warning of the dangers of the present situation and protests are still growing over the scrapping of the commission that was to examine the actions of the bankers. The overall opinion is that Ossie has two choices and will take both, impose more cuts and encourage more domestic spending to compensate for the collapse of export markets. That means more debt..... What a mess we have got ourselves into and almost all can be traced back to mistakes made by government since the 1960s when bank deregulation started..... Ossie of course says it is all down to 'outside influences', in other words, 'Not me Guv'.
Events Dear Boy......

You've all seen the news about global trade and the mess it is in. The 'Free Market' isn't as good at looking after the world as it is protecting its own interests.
I listened to Ossie doing his U-turn from the November financial statement and gasped when he said that household debt is falling, not a soul in his audience protested. However, this REPORT by the TUC tells a completely different story, and one which I suspect is closer to reality. In the third quarter of 2015 household debt rose on average by £600 per family. How can the Chancellor of the Exchequer get away with what is, on the face of it, a bare faced lie? Or was there some weasel word in there that I missed, like calling the debt 'personal' and not 'household'? Whatever, his 'economic miracle' is being financed by soaring debt and cannot be sustained indefinitely. A small rise in interest rates will be a killer for these families and in case you didn't notice it, another report tells us that wage rises are slowing down. Look out also for a rise in unemployment as the Xmas temporary workers are chucked back on the scrap heap.
Happy 2016 Lads and Lasses, make sure you have the tin hats handy......

I was ahead of the curve, main current of news and comment is the collapse of the oil price and the decision by the Saudis to sell off some of Aramco who produce 10% of world oil. General opinion is that they are getting worried and cashing in before de-carbonisation renders the oil useless. That's long term but they can see it coming. Global trade is looking anything but healthy.
I wonder what oil at $35 a barrel is doing to Ossie's tax receipts?

Interesting to watch how Nicola Sturgeon is handling the floods in Scotland. Her visits and promises seem to be going down well. Could it be that she is trusted more than Dave?

The latest Tory 'initiative' on housing, promising £140million to renovate 100 'sink estates' (what a convenient number....) seems to me to be nothing less than a gesture. How far will a paltry amount like that go? The truth is that the Tory initiatives on social housing are a disaster and they show no signs of improving. Under council housing we used to have a valuable social asset. Those days are gone as they have in affect been privatised. 'Social Rent' has been replaced by 'Right to buy'. That in itself bars most of the most needy from modern housing. Where will they go? Concentration camps? Don't scoff, we are already using prisons and 'hostels' as dustbins for what are seen as the dregs of society....

Stanley wrote:promising £140million to renovate 100 'sink estates'

No doubt we shall see a small number of pilot schemes which will probably be adjacent to prosperous inner city areas. The existing occupiers will be dispersed into the outlying undergrowth with the promise they will be able to buy into the 'affordable' houses, now up to £450,000, on completion. Unfortunately, these pilot schemes will demonstrate that it would not be economically viable to extend them into more distant areas. Am I sceptical, you bet your life I am.

I share your pessimism P. It's a cunning wheeze because any estates that are improved will first have to evict the tenants and throw them on whatever inadequate provision is available. When the refurbishment is finished these people will not be able to afford to move back in and the subsequent tenants will be in a higher income bracket. Hey Presto! It is no longer a 'sink estate' and can be trumpeted as a success, higher incomes, lower crime rates, higher satisfaction rating from the new occupants. Meanwhile, what has happened to the original tenants? This is not social housing but a cynical exercise in the redistribution of poverty.
See THIS for the latest BBC news on the Junior Doctor's strike due to commence at 08:00 this morning. This is a shabby attempt to reduce the overall rate of pay for these doctors wrapped up in a complicated proposal for a 'new wage settlement'. Hunt is using the old Tory trick of reducing wages to cut down on the cost of running an essential service. The same thing was done to the teachers many years ago, reduce the wages, damage the status and then moan because standards are not being maintained, all down to the teachers (or doctors) of course. 'Cunning Wheeze' politics at its worst....
Meanwhile.... See THIS for the criticism coming in from quite unexpected quarters of the latest Tory initiative to attack Labour Party funding. This is an old line of attack from them but this time it looks as though Cameron is going to achieve the Holy Grail and severely damage the Party's ability to attract funding. Meanwhile they massage the financial sector and rake in donations for themselves... Democracy?
I see Sir Philip Dilley has resigned as head of the Environment Agency. (LINK) It looks as though the thing that really damaged him was the effort to cover up his absence. The Agency, when asked, said he was 'at home' but failed to mention that this was in Barbados. When that fact came out Sir Philip said it was his wife's home but then it turned out that her home is in Jamaica, not Barbados. This left everyone wondering whether he had been economical with the truth. Yet another example of the trouble that lack of transparency can cause. Why didn't they just tell the truth in the first place and move on instead of putting up hostages to fortune by spinning a yarn......

He also commented that he thought his job was only part time so he expected that he would not be needed. If that's the case how can a bloke on part time afford to holiday in Barbados, don't answer that!

£100,000 for 3 days a week. The Independent reported "When questioned by MPs before his appointment in 2014, Sir Philip Dilley vowed to work “six or seven days a week” during a severe situation, such as Storm Frank. "

"Sir Philip Dilley vowed to work “six or seven days a week”

Don't worry Winston Smith will soon attend to that little inconsistency.

Do you think that perhaps his 'post' was a sinecure? Should the person in charge of something as important as the Environment Agency be part time? I note that the disastrous lady at HMRC has bitten the dust as well. Expect her to be translated to the Lords and given a revolving door job....
Interesting piece in PE this week about the cuts yet to come in the emergency services, most specifically the fire brigades who are so important during floods. I wonder if anyone brought that little problem up with Dave when he was doing his wellie bit? A lot of heavy equipment is to be withdrawn.....
See THIS for some bad news for Ossie and the economic miracle. Events dear boy......

Note that when the PM wes doing his ‘wellie bit’ he made sure he was surrounded by the military personnel (who were as usual proving sterling effort). He doesn’t sully himself with the Fire and Rescue Service, the paramedics and the like. They are ‘public sector scroungers’ with ‘gold-plated pension’s who’ if they had any talent would be in the privare sector’, or whatever it is he and his Ministers and MPs and supporters have been banging on about for the last 6 years at least.

MPs are to debate a National Anthem for England. A plea from me. No religion, and no odes to families. Nothing named after a foreign city. Perhaps then just a tune, like Spain’s. But a rousing tune, enabling the summoning of cliffs and seas, watermeadows and moors, trout streams and rolling hills etc. All the things that make me think of England……

Richard Broughton

I've always quite liked the Horst Vessel tune..... The Internationale is good also. (LINK to the Billy Bragg version) I think eclectic is the word.... Basically (sorry David....) anything but our present dreadful dirge.
See THIS for a report on the latest oil price fall and the possible consequences to Russia. They are not alone, Brazil is in financial melt-down but this of course complicated by the Petrobras scandal. This is unsettling the world's financial systems and while low pump prices may be a temporary boost to our cheerfulness index, in the long run it's potentially dangerous. I hope Ossie is on the ball!

It's only a few weeks ago that Shell and BP said that if oil fell below $30 they wouldn't be able to cope with it.

I remember Sir Michael Edwardes saying " if the UK government can't cope with North Sea oil then leave the bloody stuff in the ground."
Oil Review.. With climate change on our doorstep perhaps we have reach that point again.

The big problem P, in practical terms, is that like a steelworks, the start up costs after a shut down are so enormous that the oil companies have only one choice, keep pumping or abandon the wells. Abandoning would involve enormous shut down costs. At the moment they are shedding workers and liabilities as fast as they can to minimise the haemorrhage of money as the North Sea is one of the most expensive in the world in terms of production costs.
There is another problem.... the financial markets can't cope with the uncertainty of the situation. The 'simple' answer is that at the moment there is over production largely due to weakened economic activity in global terms but nobody knows what part the larger move to de-carbonisation is playing. The one thing that is certain is that carbon based energy use has to stop and the process has already started. This means that oil-producers glory days are over but nobody can put a time scale on this. My bet is that it will be here faster than anyone thinks.... Look at the Saudis breaking all their own rules by selling some of the equity in Aramco, unheard of! Saudi and Iran are in deep trouble financially and this is why Iran in particular is trying to get back into global trade and is playing the 'nice guy' card. It also explains the schism in the Saudi royal family and their recent erratic foreign policy.
Look at Norway.... They are the only producers (to my knowledge) who did the sensible thing. They ring-fenced a major part of the oil proceeds from the start and invested it in a sovereign wealth fund. No matter what happens they have the benefit of this now. When the first trickle of windfall money started to come in from the North Sea this was mooted here. Wedgie Benn was a big supporter of this but it never happened. The proceeds were frittered away by the Tories to use the cash to fund a massive effort to emasculate the unions, the Evil Empire. I have always said that when the history is written this would be seen as the biggest mistake Thatcher made, skewing our economy from the solid base of vale added manufacturing to the ephemeral and highly vulnerable base of a 'service economy' playing with Phantom Money. All that was financed by oil money and at the same time they pursued deregulation of the banks to enhance the tax take from the financial sector. Look what the Lords of the Universe did with the enormous power that was handed to them. Go figure!
You can all see where these terrible mistakes on the part of politicians of all parties led us. The present regime have compounded things by doing the only thing their DNA will allow, when in trouble squeeze the weakest part of the economy. It failed in the Inter War years and it will fail now. Mark Carney warned when he first took over the BofE that the 'recovery' was unbalanced and fragile. He was right and all the signs are that due to 'Events Dear Boy' we are about to reap the whirlwind. Go back and read Piketty, he forecast low economic activity for the foreseeable future and laid out the consequences.....
That's right, I have nothing but contempt for the way these 'leaders' have screwed up. You couldn't make it up.
I'm glad I am 80 next month, with a bit of luck I shall take the exit before the full consequences hit us.... Tin hats on lads!
It's just struck me. Marx would say "I told you so!"

While appearing to deny climate change in public, Shell and BP (and probably other oil companies) started development work on renewable energy sources years ago, having realised that oil's time was running out. Then governments started offering subsidies which boosted the development work...and then the UK government cut the subsidies. That was enough to make the oil companies say, sod it, why should we fund it all if the government isn't willing to help? With better planning we could have been much farther down the renewable route by now.

Just one more example of how incompetent our 'leaders' are... Look at what they are doing to private pensions...... Look at the lack of inactivity on the execrable Post Office software systems... You can all think of plenty of examples.
Then think of the number of families with young children who are afraid to turn the heating up as the frost bites and can't afford good food....

I was thinking this morning about all the people still coping with the aftermath of the floods. The news caravan has moved on, there is no political capital in statements or photo opportunities. The hi viz jackets and wellies have been put in the cupboard ready for the next time.....

I heard the noble Lord Blaby on World Service this morning arguing that no matter what concessions Dave gets from the EU we should get out. Perhaps this is why I haven't heard anything from him lately on climate change, he has another bee in his bonnet.

See THIS for the latest oil price. I think OPEC is being a bit optimistic because Iran starting pumping again will further depress prices. Some analysts are saying that $20 a barrel could be possible. I hope Ossie is watching.
A similar over-supply problem is hitting steel and the latest victim is the Abbey Works in S Wales. As one of the workers asked, "how can the government do anything concrete when they are grovelling to China for investment funds?" Lots of noble words from government spokesperson but don't hold your breath lads.....
We are potentially looking at the death of one of our basic industries and this will have tremendous effects on the rest of manufacturing. Where is the 'Economic Miracle' now?
I've just been listening to an 'expert' telling us that the relative recession in China is no problem because the banks can always print more money if availability of capital becomes a problem. Like OPEC, he has a vested interest in talking confidence up. We have heard all this before, is it really as simple as that? Print more money? This is the economics of the madhouse, there is only one way to get solid improvement, get more people in work and paying taxes on decent wages earned by adding value by changing raw materials into saleable goods. End of story! This is all going to end very badly.....