POLITICS CORNER

[Stanley]

A bald statement that 'training has been given' means nothing. What sort, how long, were they paid while doing it? This is what Presser was getting at.
Teresa May has a genius for upsetting people. She has always favoured a lawyer, Tom Winsor, as the new Inspector of Constabulary and has forced his appointment through. The policve hate him because he has no police experience and wrote the two recent reports recommending altering their pay and conditions, even fitness tests! See this LINK for the details. By the way, he was the man in charge of the Rail Executive..... Teresa had a bad relationship with the police before, I doubt if this appointment will improve matters. Regardless of the quality of the decision, surely the Home Secretary is supposed to have a relationship with the police and work with them?
Meanwhile the Euro-zone debacle creeps forward and we see concepts surfacing that have been hidden up to now. Mention of the failure of the Euro as a possibility. Open agitation for full federal status rather than hints of 'fiscal cooperation'. My reading is that the idea is now firmly embedded that full political and fiscal amalgamation is the only long-term strategy that can ensure a future for the European Project. The politicians have known this all along but now the markets have forced them to address this. Problem is that a massive project like this takes too long so bigger and better sticking plasters will have to be applied in the short run, like Euro Bonds, sharing the debts across all the participants. Question is whether there is enough money in the system to support this. Will the German taxpayers, the biggest losers, accept this? China's biggest market is the EU and they live by exports. Their growth has fallen from 12% to 8% as Europe buying power falls. In their terms this is a disaster.

[Stanley]

Interesting item on page 11 of this week's BET. A leading Pendle Liberal Democrat, Matloob Ahmed has attacked Messrs. Stephenson and Birtwistle, the MPs for Pendle and Burnley for stating in Parliament that Asian women aren't given a fair choice of vote due to coercion inside their families. Mr Ahmed's point was that whist this may exist it was a double standard for the two MPs to raise the matter under privilege when they and other candidates had targeted heads of families specifically to ask for the family vote. Sounds like a fair point to me....

[Tardis]

Yes Stanley, full training up to nvq appropriate level and certification, food, accomodation etc. If they were paid they would have lost housing benefit, and Job seekers allowance. I do not defend the system, just point out that it was Lord Prescott and his ilk that introduced it

Lord Prescott of wasnae me was the ideal politician

Set your web browser to search for comments from the other than 2 people that the Grauniad and the beeboids didn't interview.

[Tizer]

News just out from Reuters...
(Reuters, 8/6/12) - Spain is expected to request European aid for its ailing banks at the weekend to forestall worsening market turmoil, becoming the fourth and biggest country to seek assistance since the euro zone's debt crisis began, EU and German sources said. Four senior EU officials said finance ministers of the 17-nation single currency area would hold a conference call on Saturday to discuss a Spanish request for an aid package, although no figure had yet been set. The Eurogroup would issue a statement after the meeting, they said. "The announcement is expected for Saturday afternoon," one of the EU officials said. "The government of Spain has realised the seriousness of their problem," a senior German official said. LINK

[Bruff]

Lady that runs this company Close Protection UK is an interesting character (love the name 'Close Protection' - could be straight out of the mind of an Andy McNab fantacist. All that stuff Gareth in The Office came out with).

Allegedly, she has a suspended sentence for conspiracy to pervert the course of justice over an assault involving a family member that left them in a coma - she was up on GBH, allegedly. This is in addition to her contributory chapter of a book 'Bouncers and Bodyguards: Tales from a Twilight World', involving some of Britain's most notorious characters no less (according to the blurb)! It was whilst she was working as a bouncer that she realised folk got over a grand a day as trainers and decided 'that was the business to be in'. Also out there in the web ether, is feedback from one of those trained, in which the final exercise involved Molly/Mary hiring a flash limo, toddling around Manchester to do shopping, checking in at the Lowry, going out at night on the p***, whilst the 'close protection' trainees did their errr, close protection.

Truly the sort of individual who we should unquestioningly accept as a good egg wholly worthy of tax payers money.....

I think it's fait to say I sniff a whopping big rat here.

Richard Broughton

[Stanley]

"I think it's fair to say I sniff a whopping big rat here."

Agreed Richard and I think John Prescott did the same. My crap detector goes off automatically when I hear an interviewee responding in management speak. I think my problem is that when I left school I went straight into a job where I was well treated and learning all the time. That was the natural order of things but it all seems to have gone by the board these days. I feel sorry for the young people being short changed by toy town training to tick boxes on an NVQ form (I had to help administer them at Ellenroad) and no job security. That's why I applaud Lord Prescott's intervention.
In the days of Manpower Services I once had a conversation with Lord Young who had come north to see how the scheme was running and had heard of our success at Ellenroad. At that time the MSC contract was for 12 months and I argued for two years as we hadn't enough time to do the job properly. He agreed but said that all the pressure was to get throughput to massage the figures and keep the scheme going. I got the impression that in political terms the quantity was more important than the quality. One example, we found we needed at least three months to get the concept of useful work and punctuality into the trainees' heads. What was automatic with my generation was an alien concept to them.
As for Spain. I think we are all fed up with watching the politicians going through the same wearisome gavotte all over again. While they do the extent of the debt slowly becomes apparent and the situation gets worse. Bankia started off at -€19billion and is now at €40+billion, this doesn't take account of the debts held by the other banks. Then there are the linkages with Italy, it's generally accepted that if Spain fails the pressures on Italy will be insupportable. All the political manoeuvrings at the moment are towards one end, postponing the inevitable in order to give time to completely restructure the political and fiscal basis of the EU itself because the bottom line is that if the rot can't be stopped the whole structure could collapse like a pack of cards. This is the nightmare scenario that is affecting the rest of the global economy and we haven't seen the full extent yet.
My mind goes back to the classic economic 'bubble', the South Sea Company. The politicians were simpler folk then, as soon as they realised the dangers of public share-holding and the dangers of over optimistic promoters they simply banned the practice. All right, it was all on a smaller scale then but the solution still applies, governments should make policies to curb speculation and enforce them. In the end this is the only solution and they all know it but can't get up the necessary head of steam to do it. Perhaps there is also a parallel in that one of the politicians who got burnt in the denouement was Walpole. Could considerations like this be at work today?

[Tardis]

So presumably on that kind of level, anyone who even has so much as a parking ticket is obviously anti-social and unable to provide an opportunity for those less fortunate? For every finger that points there are more on the same hand that point back at you.

Are these the same folk who say that workers in the UK must have the minimum wage, but they are allowed to buy goods from countries where the workers are paid a bowl of rice a day?

As I understand the situation the successful will be paid for stewarding during the olympics. Thus the govt (and the tax payer) has funded the necessary expansion to stop mass economic migration to fulfil the needs. If it works and gets people off benefit, then the UK can spend those tax receipts on something else

I would also think that the 2 people who whinged to the Grauniad are not going to be in the pot of successful candidates because they will be managed out.

[Stanley]

That must have been a fairly intensive conference call yesterday between the EU finance ministers. Spain went in sticking to the line that they were waiting for the results of an audit in about two weeks to see whether they needed a loan or not. They came out with a guaranteed loan of €100billion from the ECB fund. Ten days ago Spain was saying they didn't need a bail-out. So what happened? I can see only one explanation, the EU are trying to buy time and the only weapon they have is the 'Big Bazooka'. Throw an enormous amount of money at the problem and hope that this keeps the market happy. The question arises, what is the fall-back position if the ploy fails? On the evidence so far it is likely that even an enormous sticking plaster lie this won't work. The elephant in the room is collapse of the Euro and the attendant damage to the EU project as a whole. How long before we hear the phrase 'The Euro Bubble' or something similar? One thing is certain, if it does fail it will become the biggest scapegoat in history and be regarded as the cause of any global melt-down of the financial system when in fact it is just a symptom of the greater ill. The world is inundated by debt encouraged for purely selfish reasons by a financial ethos geared to greater and greater profit from interest on phantom money. This is the root problem and nobody dare face it.
I watched the interview with Paul Krugman on BBC Hardtalk and once more was struck by the sense of his arguments based on economic history. He was the man who said that Ben Bernanke had been assimilated by the Borg. The least that can be said about him is that he argues for new thinking and innovation based on the evidence of history. I like that approach. If we can't learn from past mistakes we are doomed. His basic argument is that the 'austerity solution' is wrong, depresses economic activity and causes huge collateral social damage. Funny how the world is slowly coming to the same conclusion even though Krugman has been vilified.

[Tizer]

Not surprisingly there is a big spread in The Times yesterday on Spain. I knew that the big banks like Santander were supposed to be sound and it was the smaller regional banks that were in trouble - what I hadn't known is that these smaller banks are run by `politicians', according to The Times, not by bankers. Also, we've been told all along that Spain's problem was due to banks lending on big, dodgy property projects but a Spanish author writing in The Times says there is also a massive hidden personal debt problem going back to the late 90s when interest rates were around zero percent and everyone took out loans.

[Stanley]

Tiz, I have little doubt that you are right. The simplistic explanations we are being given about the reason for the Spanish bank debts don't wash for me either. I think they had to make a case for giving the bail-out without the austerity imposition to avoid political trouble in Spain that would hold up what had to be a quick deal to pacify the markets.
I listened to the Spanish Prime Minister (who was evidently dying to get away to watch the football, he even looked at his watch when he exited the room) and realised that there is a parallel universe, 'Brane Theory' must be right! Unless I got it completely wrong he was putting forward the case that Spain had saved the Euro by agreeing to accept a €100billion hand out from the Euro intervention funds. The implication is that Spain deserves a vote of thanks! The markets in Tokyo and early results from the US futures market seem to indicate that the markets agree.
Are all these people completely mad? Or perhaps just desperate. Nobody has yet explained where the money is coming from, has the intervention fund enough to cover it without a call for more money from the Euro members? Do they really believe that it is so simple? I don't believe the diagnosis of the problem or the efficacy of the solution. This is just a sticking plaster and it won't be long before the Greek problem has to be faced again and Spain finds further black holes in their economy. The markets are so febrile at the moment that they grab any 'good' news and convert it into 'market confidence'. Problem is that it works the opposite way round as well. There is more than a whiff of panic coming out of the Euro zone at the moment.
As for Osborne and Cameron stating that the UK growth problem is out of their control due to the Euro zone problems this is a load of cobblers and an abdication of responsibility. We are a sovereign country with our own currency despite the transfer of powers to the EU in the past. If we found that we needed to kick-start growth in manufacturing industry to counter a threat from outside as happened in 1939 they would have no problem in finding the resources, that was what happened then from a worse position than we are in now. Then there is the question of by far the most important driver of the economy, the domestic market. The root of the UK growth problem is that since they came to power the Coalition has talked down their ability to intervene, imposed cuts which are slowly reducing domestic disposable incomes and completely ignored the effects on society of attacking those with the least money. By retreating to the old and discredited theory of 'sound money' they are attacking the people at the bottom of the pile who are actually the source of real wealth. At the moment the effect of the cuts hasn't bitten yet, the best estimate I have seen is that less than 15% of the savings have taken effect. In other words they are presiding over an ongoing decline which is going to get worse. Instead of advising the EU to go the whole hog and create a super Euro-zone with financial and political linkages that will in effect create a United States of Europe which will exclude the weakest or the most independent they should consider the effect this will have on the far right of the Tories. They will push for a quick exit from the EU and further 'supply side' reforms which are actually an erosion of elector's rights in everyday life and employment. 19th century laisser faire economics. Incidentally they will also have done their sums and realised that their next election prospects are getting worse day by day.
My predictions for what they are worth is that chucking money at Spain will not 'cure' the problem, simply kick the can down the road. In the UK we are on a slide to at least ten years of flat-lining or worse if something isn't done immediately with a consequent fall in standards of living. Europe is going to morph into a two speed zone with the richest Euro zone members at the core and the failing members like the Mediterranean countries either leaving the Euro or accepting austerity so damaging that they are committed to peasant status indefinitely. Unfortunately none of this can happen quickly enough to reassure the rest of the global economy and the wild card is how their reactions impinge on the Euro economy while all of this is happening.
Can anyone see light at the end of the tunnel?

[Stanley]

I asked one of my mentors for a reality check and she popped an interesting facet of the debt crisis into my head. Worth sharing I think.

"Meanwhile, let us not forget that, although there is greed and corruption galore, the ROOT problem as I see it is income inequality. All of the savings of the rich, who cannot possibly spend all they make, has to go somewhere, and the markets have pushed it on to borrowers ( national and individuals) by making them think it was perfectly OK and that the future was secure. Had we not had the global savings glut, none of those debts would have been incurred. The banks had to make money or lose customers. This is not the first reason we think of, but I think if you dig deeply enough it will be the root of most of the troubles."

[Tardis]

Only one economic problem with that analysis:

If the banks go belly up, all those rich folk stand to lose far more money than anyone else, and if you withdraw all that money from the system then you will have a credit crunch of enormous implications where you might be back to bartering on the street because the currency has failed. Remember money is but a cipher, it is not wealth, and an asset value is only what someone was prepared to and could pay for it.

I wonder if the income redistribution includes ensuring that those in the sub continent and far east are paid at least the UK minimum wage for their endeavours.

[Tardis]

I see the GMB is doing it's best to drag the Labour Party to the Left by banning some people, organisations that no longer donate and firing rather large salvoes across the bows of Weird Ed and Blinky Balls

[Stanley]

I've been trying to ignore the latest twists and turns in the Leveson enquiry but there was a well researched edition of Dispatches on C4 last night which brought together the connections between Cameron et al and the Murdochs. My only conclusion at the moment is that regardless of the 'truth' behind it, the picture that is emerging is of an administration flying by the seat of its pants and ignoring safeguards like full Development Vetting. Some interesting comments about governing by un-minuted text messages as well. Not a reassuring picture.
Gordon Brown caused some jaws to drop when he denied (under oath!) that his aides had not attacked Tony Blair with his blessing during the Blair-Brown War of Succession. It's obvious he was lying. Does becoming a politician mean that the boundaries between truth and untruth become so blurred that they can't recognise them? What's the difference between blatant manipulation of the facts like this and the Perjury that Coulson stands charged with?
I see the euphoria in the markets soon evaporated yesterday as the banks took a closer look at the '€100billion' loan to Spain. They have started asking awkward questions about the difference between a statement of intention to reassure the markets and an actual hard cash injection. They should also ask the even more fundamental question, is this a cure or a sticking plaster to buy time. Things not made any better by the interest rate on Spanish Bonds rising again and the rating agencies downgrading other Spanish banks.
Another country pops up on the Risk List. On July 1st Cyprus takes over as President of the EU but needs a bail-out. The theory is that it would look too bad if they applied while in charge so they will need an emergency loan before the end of this month. How long until Italy pops up in the list?
On another track, and I'm fighting against it because of its enormity, my mind keeps going back to Naomi Klein's splendid book on 'The Shock Doctrine'. I am not suggesting a coordinated global conspiracy but there are elements in the present drive for austerity which suggest that the economic situation is being used for political ends to re-engineer the benefits of modern technologies and possibilities for a better life for the poorest in society. It fits in with Martha's thoughts about inequality. I have no doubt that Tory DNA is kicking in in the UK and it all starts to add up. My dad used to say that the biggest con-trick in history was Post War Credits, when we look back will we say the same thing about how the economic troubles are being addressed? Hollande's administration in France has evidently smelt a whiff of this and the growing anti-austerity movement all over the world reinforces this. The problem is of course that the right wing dismisses this as 'the politics of envy', this is too simplistic, the gap between the rich and the poor is a real and present danger to stability and anything that widens it is dangerous.

[Tardis]

Brown's evidence at Leveson was quite appalling in terms of the evidence that is already out there. There was a lot of it on twitter from all the newspaper people, but not a lot of it has appeared in today's papers so go figure.

I think the Cameroons are simply being overwhelmed by "events dear boy, events" and there is nothing left anywhere to actually make any kind of difference.

The fact that Spain has now set new records for it's bond issues inspite of the 100 billion bail out

I am also hearing that the market is starting to short Italy in a big way

[Tizer]

I notice that rogue traders are no longer restricted to the banks - a trader at the energy company E.ON has lost the company (and ultimately its shareholders and customers) tens of millions of euros betting on the price difference in electricity between several countries. This flags up the ridiculous state of our stock markets and commodity markets which have become more like betting shops and gambling dens. If an alien from outer space landed today he would think we were all insane when he saw how we managed ownership, exchange and distribution of stocks, commodities, food, land and other resources. Look at the effect of the bail out to Spain - the stock markets jumped upwards then tumbled back down again, all because the moneymakers are so volatile and look to cream off some money at every opportunity. The markets consist mainly of a relatively small number of money makers leading by the nose a big group of very gullible and greedy people. The system is far too volatile and needs damping down, we don't want our companies and resources to be artificially made unstable just so that some suits can make a few extra million dollars. Somehow we need to develop a system that will be much more stable and not subject to being undermined by the greed of the financial class.

[Stanley]

Spot on Tiz and the reason why I keep saying that our present systems of management of finance are broken and need immediate repair. Roosevelt recognised this when he made his famous inaugural speech before launching the New Deal in the teeth of the 1930s depression in the US. As I have said before, it wouldn't be a bad idea to read the speech again and take note. Paul Krugman gets into terrible trouble in America for putting the same argument forward, look at the history and take note! Problem is of course is that the people who hold the power to make these changes are either up to their knees in profits or depending on a quick fix to enable them to get a short term confidence gain and get re-elected. The one thing that stands out a mile in the present crisis is that the politicians have only one thing on their mind, kicking the can down the road in order to gain time. In the UK the extreme right wing have seen their opportunity to erode the advances made by the poorer people over the last century. I can't help remembering the old quotation, "Those whom the Gods wish to destroy they first make mad". I get a feeling that when the historians get chance to draw breath and examine what is happening the root cause will be seen to lie not with the banks but in a failure of governance by the politicians.
Meanwhile, in another part of the forest.... You couldn't have a better example of the above sentiments than what has happened over the last three days vis a vis the Spanish 'bail-out'. What looked like a new dawn on Sunday has now been analysed and rejected by not only the markets but some of the EU finance ministers. In simple terms, what looked like a serious attempt to stem the tide of dissolution of the Euro has now been downgraded to an aspiration because on closer examination there is no certainty and many problems. The bottom line is that the infection has spread to all the Mediterranean countries and there is only one certainty, there could possibly be enough resource in the Euro zone to finance a Spanish recovery with severe austerity but Italy is in a far worse state and is too big to save. Statements to this effect by several ministers in the Euro zone seem to indicate a whiff of panic. What makes it all even worse is that they are running out of time, the Greeks vote this weekend and we have the surreal situation where all the contestants, even those who supported the original two bail out agreements, are committed to re-negotiation. Cyprus needs an immediate bail-out before the end of June and the markets have focussed on Italy.
I know I have been consistently pessimistic but I think you can now see it was with good reason. I have seen nothing like this in my lifetime and my message is the same, tin hats on! The train wreck continues....
There is another area where I detect a whiff of panic, 10 Downing Street. Apart from the general indictment of relations between all the parties and the media, the Coalition/Murdoch doubts are coming closer to home. I'm not interested in individual culpability. The worst aspect of all this is that an administration mired in this sort of controversy can't possibly be focussing on governance and if there was ever a time when we needed clear policies and resolute action it is now. This is a failed administration and if our system is worth anything it should be brought to account.

[Stanley]

Just heard that Cleggy has instructed his party MPs not to vote on the debate about Hunt today. This is a purely political decision designed to avoid rocking the boat of the Coalition. It won't do him much good because whatever the Liberals do won't appease those Tories who still regard the cooperation with the Liberals not as a true coalition with common aims but simply as a means to hold power.

[Tardis]

As predicted Italy spiked yesterday. They also point out that Italy had to borrow at 5% to aid the Spanish bail out, who then borrowed the money at 3%. Madness

Market makers are now adjusting their positions on France

[Tardis]

At the West Craven Area Committee last night, the Lib Dems said that they wouldn't support the bid to re-open the Community Centre on Coates, and then reallocated the funding to renovate the playground

Tree Preservation Orders are to be placed on the Silentnight Wood as the Lib Dems feel that will stop any development on the land, even though the Core Strategy says that industrial development should take place along the Canal.

Apparently it took over 20 minutes for a 999 ambulance to get to Cllr Whipp last week when he thought that he had heart problems, so they are going to have a look into provision despite two others saying they'd had service within 6 minutes. Wonder if the NW Ambulance service has had dealings with Cllr Whipp before?

[Stanley]

I said a while since that I was warming to Mr Levenson. I don't know who selected him to lead the enquiry but he is turning out to be quite fearless in pursuing what he sees as the correct lines of enquiry. How about making his enquiry permanent and giving it free reign to look into any aspects of public life that concern it? I can understand Downing Street being horrified at this suggestion, a good reason why it should be considered. He certainly has teeth and I suspect it was never envisaged that he'd be so thorough, independent and efficient.
Rebekkah et al in court at Southwark next week. They may be looking relaxed now but would you like to be in her shoes? Who's financing her legal costs? Then there is the long queue of cases connected with police bribery....
I note that Cameron wrapped the Falklands flag round himself yesterday. Always a dangerous sign. Usually used to divert attention from other troubling matters. Bad tempered PMQs yesterday and I have sympathy with the Labour MP who said that whilst Hunt has escaped a full enquiry it wouldn't do anything for his standing in the House. Am I alone in thinking that he is being used by Cameron as a firewall?

[Stanley]

Mervyn King accused this morning of going into panic mode with the announcement that £80billion was being made available to the banks at low interest to encourage lending to private individuals. The hope is that this will help to kick start the economy. Not too sure about how this will work, almost certainly too little too late but at least it shows that the BofE is aware of the dangers inherent in the coming storm from Europe.

[Nolic]

Saw a clip of Cameroon at the Levenson inquiry being asked about how frequently he had met Red Rebecca on a social basis. "it was frequent, not weekly perhaps 2 weekly but quite a bit" After squirming for minutes trying to find a response he said he would ask SamCam during the adjournment. He later came back and said that it was about 6 weekly. A PM with no medium term recall .....is this early onset Alzeimers? Nolic

[Tardis]

The BoE is playing catch up, and as has been pointed out: if the banks have to do the lending and will catch all the bad debts, why would they lend in the future when they aren't lending now.

The issue is the UK has zombie banks, trying to shore up their balance sheets for the regulations and stave off going bust. Why would they take on new business? the economy will continue to be handicapped until the situation is resolved, and the easiest way would be to take RBS outside and shoot it, but the majority of the public would not bear the ensueing anarchy that this process would deliver.

[Stanley]

Funny thing is I have two friends each with £1million+ in current contracts and neither of them has any problem borrowing money at low interest. Their problem is finding a use for the money that gives a return higher than Bank Rate + 2% so they can make money. Both say they are drowning in paperwork. One of them asked me what it was like in the 70s when we had over 20% inflation and devaluation. I told him that in my case we had no problems, we were poor but the Wages Board gave us automatic salary increases every three months and we had reasonable job security on a living wage. Contrast that with today....
Forget the minutiae of Leveson and look at the overall picture his enquiry is revealing. Politicians of all parties acting with arrogance but no principle beyond self preservation drowning in a sea of modern communications as they try to micro-manage UL PLC instead of sticking to proven principles of written communications and minuted meetings. Government by text and twitter. Politics has always been incestuous and dirty, difference is that now we can see the chaos and double-dealing. Question is, how long to the electors remain supine?
Greek elections this weekend but no overall majority expected so there will be at least another week of horse trading before we see any clarity. The only thing we suspect at the moment is that even the most moderate outcome will demand a re-negotiation of the Greek bail out in line with that given to Spain. Meanwhile pressure builds on Italy and Cyprus. Deep Joy! The clock is ticking, the train wreck continues. Never seen anything like it.